FFL: 2 picks in top 3

[Donoghus]

Alright, here's a question.

League is 10 teams.  6 points for passing TD, 6 points for rushing TD, 6 points for receiving TD. 1 pt every 25 yards passing, 4 point bonus for 300 yds passing.  1 pt for every 10 yards rushing, 4 pt bonus for 100 yd game.  Also, its points per reception.

Number one pick.  Brady or Tomlinson.  Point system is seriously making me contemplate Brady.

Thoughts?

That's basically the FFL I'm in Dons and I went with Brady as my first pick at number 4. LT, AP, and Westbrook went 1,2,3 in my draft so I was left with Brady, Manning or Addai so I thought it a no brainer. But at number 1, hmmmmm, well with the easy schedule that the Pats have I really can't see Brady throwing less than 35 TDs and having less than 10 over 300 games so I would say Brady. But even if you don't a Brees or Rothlisberger will still be available in the late second early third round for you.

If the point system was the usual 3 or 4 for passing TD and 6 for rushing TD, I would definitely nab LT at #1 but the equal points at passing TD and rushing TD makes me think Brady might be the better pick there.

[Big Ticket]

Alright, here's a question.

League is 10 teams.  6 points for passing TD, 6 points for rushing TD, 6 points for receiving TD. 1 pt every 25 yards passing, 4 point bonus for 300 yds passing.  1 pt for every 10 yards rushing, 4 pt bonus for 100 yd game.  Also, its points per reception.

Number one pick.  Brady or Tomlinson.  Point system is seriously making me contemplate Brady.

Thoughts?

Still not nearly enough to go with Brady in my opinion.  He is a monster and makes everyone rethink normal strategy... but the RB position is just too thin right now.  Do you have a flex spot (RB/WR)?  If so, I really suggest against waiting to take a back until 20 or later.  If it is just two RB spots, then you could maybe get away with going Brady-RB-RB, but I really don't think there are going to be two back at the 20-21 spot worth taking there.  If Grant falls that far, then Grant-Mojo would be viable.... but I don't know man.  There are a lot of more than serviceable QBs to be had in the midrounds... not so much with backs.

[BUTerrier]

In an interview with Colleen Dominguez of ESPN, Tomlinson strongly suggested that he might walk away from the NFL sooner than anyone realizes. The topic came up after Dominguez estimated that L.T. is roughly five solid seasons away from toppling Emmitt Smith’s all-time rushing mark. Tomlinson said in response that he might not play that long. “It comes a time where you gotta walk away from the game,” he said. “I really would like to walk away from the game on top. I don’t want to be a player that’s declining and have to be kicked out of the league and not getting picked up by a team.”

This, more than anything, makes me want to take AP and Addai over LT in a keeper league. I love LT, I do, but you could have your RB position set for the next decade, and the drop-off isn't likely to be that great.

[Big Ticket]

In an interview with Colleen Dominguez of ESPN, Tomlinson strongly suggested that he might walk away from the NFL sooner than anyone realizes. The topic came up after Dominguez estimated that L.T. is roughly five solid seasons away from toppling Emmitt Smith’s all-time rushing mark. Tomlinson said in response that he might not play that long. “It comes a time where you gotta walk away from the game,” he said. “I really would like to walk away from the game on top. I don’t want to be a player that’s declining and have to be kicked out of the league and not getting picked up by a team.”

This, more than anything, makes me want to take AP and Addai over LT in a keeper league. I love LT, I do, but you could have your RB position set for the next decade, and the drop-off isn't likely to be that great.

"Leave the game on top".  He could still be on top for 3-4 more years.... so again, it really depends on the horizon of their keeper league.

[Robb]

Big Ticket, you say that RB is thin, but how many quarterbacks can even throw 40TDs let alone 50.

If pass TDs are equal to everything else, you HAVE to go with Brady.  Even on a typical Moss-less Tom Brady season he'd outperform every running back in the league.

The advice to gauge how long the league will run is very good.  If you can expect everyone to keep up with it, Peterson and Addai will be a defensible choice.  If you don't, LT and Westbrook, and if you're unsure LT and Peterson/Addai would offer immediate and long term benefits.

[Big Ticket]

Big Ticket, you say that RB is thin, but how many quarterbacks can even throw 40TDs let alone 50.

If pass TDs are equal to everything else, you HAVE to go with Brady.  Even on a typical Moss-less Tom Brady season he'd outperform every running back in the league.

The advice to gauge how long the league will run is very good.  If you can expect everyone to keep up with it, Peterson and Addai will be a defensible choice.  If you don't, LT and Westbrook, and if you're unsure LT and Peterson/Addai would offer immediate and long term benefits.

Well, this year I'd say there are only 3 QBs that could threaten 40 TDs.  The thing is, there are about a dozen more that could go for 25-30 and equal yardage.  Brady is a rare case because of what he did last year, but the drop off after the top 12-14 RB to the guys that will be your RB2 and RB3 is pretty significant.  I'd rather have my 3rd RB have 20 point week potential with a QB that gets around 15-20, then have a QB with 30 point per week potential and a 3rd RB that will maybe get 5 points a game.

[crownsy]

Big Ticket, you say that RB is thin, but how many quarterbacks can even throw 40TDs let alone 50.

If pass TDs are equal to everything else, you HAVE to go with Brady.  Even on a typical Moss-less Tom Brady season he'd outperform every running back in the league.

The advice to gauge how long the league will run is very good.  If you can expect everyone to keep up with it, Peterson and Addai will be a defensible choice.  If you don't, LT and Westbrook, and if you're unsure LT and Peterson/Addai would offer immediate and long term benefits.

Well, this year I'd say there are only 3 QBs that could threaten 40 TDs.  The thing is, there are about a dozen more that could go for 25-30 and equal yardage.  Brady is a rare case because of what he did last year, but the drop off after the top 12-14 RB to the guys that will be your RB2 and RB3 is pretty significant.  I'd rather have my 3rd RB have 20 point week potential with a QB that gets around 15-20, then have a QB with 30 point per week potential and a 3rd RB that will maybe get 5 points a game.

but he gets two picks, so why not have both?

we are not suggesting it would be a good idea to take 2 QB's, nor any other QB than the two point machines.

Articles are flying around the web on this, the consencous seems to be that with the new way RB's outside the top 3-5 get carries (read: not as many) and goal line speciality backs are starting to dominate, that brady and manning, both of whom don't throw picks and score a ton of TD's and yards, are great top 5 picks in most leagues.

If jeff had one top 5 pick, i'd say HB every time. with the 1 and 3?

i take a RB 1st and either manning or brady 3rd. both have 4-6 more real productive years left, and are less likely to suffer a major injury than a running back.

for the pick in round 3, i'd take a goal line RB. or whoever denver names the starter lol. (kidding)

[Jeff]

you know what?  I laughed it off initially, but I'm starting to warm to the idea of Brady at #3

I mean, my league scores 6 points for passing TDs (as well as rushing TDs)

I don't think Brady will duplicate last year's record-breaking year, but I also don't have a lot of confidence in the ground game (or more to the point, I don't think BB has confidence in it yet)

if I take LT, my RB1 is set
if AP is there, I think I'll take him, he's just too good
my next pick after 3 will be all the way down at 26 & 28, where I'm hoping for a top WR to fall to me and see what's left at QB (Big Ben?  Brees?)

I guess it just boils down to the fact that I'm not sold on Addai or Westbrook

my top 4 could either look like this (hypothetically):

LT
Brady
TJ Houshmouth or Colston
Jacobs or Reggie Bush

or it could look like this:

LT
Westbrook
Brees or Big Ben
TJ Houshmouth or Colston

I'm starting to lean towards the former

[Big Ticket]

Big Ticket, you say that RB is thin, but how many quarterbacks can even throw 40TDs let alone 50.

If pass TDs are equal to everything else, you HAVE to go with Brady.  Even on a typical Moss-less Tom Brady season he'd outperform every running back in the league.

The advice to gauge how long the league will run is very good.  If you can expect everyone to keep up with it, Peterson and Addai will be a defensible choice.  If you don't, LT and Westbrook, and if you're unsure LT and Peterson/Addai would offer immediate and long term benefits.

Well, this year I'd say there are only 3 QBs that could threaten 40 TDs.  The thing is, there are about a dozen more that could go for 25-30 and equal yardage.  Brady is a rare case because of what he did last year, but the drop off after the top 12-14 RB to the guys that will be your RB2 and RB3 is pretty significant.  I'd rather have my 3rd RB have 20 point week potential with a QB that gets around 15-20, then have a QB with 30 point per week potential and a 3rd RB that will maybe get 5 points a game.

but he gets two picks, so why not have both?

we are not suggesting it would be a good idea to take 2 QB's, nor any other QB than the two point machines.

Articles are flying around the web on this, the consencous seems to be that with the new way RB's outside the top 3-5 get carries (read: not as many) and goal line speciality backs are starting to dominate, that brady and manning, both of whom don't throw picks and score a ton of TD's and yards, are great top 5 picks in most leagues.

If jeff had one top 5 pick, i'd say HB every time. with the 1 and 3?

i take a RB 1st and either manning or brady 3rd. both have 4-6 more real productive years left, and are less likely to suffer a major injury than a running back.

for the pick in round 3, i'd take a goal line RB. or whoever denver names the starter lol. (kidding)

You just afirrmed my point.  With how bad the RBs are outside the top 5, how do you not giddily leap at the chance to have 2 of them?  Sure, it'd be awesome to have Brady... but if he could get Brees with his 3rd pick, or Palmer/Big Ben/Andersen in the 4/5 area or even Cutler in 8 or 9, I'd rather have two backs that will dominate and give up 6 points a week in the QB spot.

[crownsy]

Big Ticket, you say that RB is thin, but how many quarterbacks can even throw 40TDs let alone 50.

If pass TDs are equal to everything else, you HAVE to go with Brady.  Even on a typical Moss-less Tom Brady season he'd outperform every running back in the league.

The advice to gauge how long the league will run is very good.  If you can expect everyone to keep up with it, Peterson and Addai will be a defensible choice.  If you don't, LT and Westbrook, and if you're unsure LT and Peterson/Addai would offer immediate and long term benefits.

Well, this year I'd say there are only 3 QBs that could threaten 40 TDs.  The thing is, there are about a dozen more that could go for 25-30 and equal yardage.  Brady is a rare case because of what he did last year, but the drop off after the top 12-14 RB to the guys that will be your RB2 and RB3 is pretty significant.  I'd rather have my 3rd RB have 20 point week potential with a QB that gets around 15-20, then have a QB with 30 point per week potential and a 3rd RB that will maybe get 5 points a game.

but he gets two picks, so why not have both?

we are not suggesting it would be a good idea to take 2 QB's, nor any other QB than the two point machines.

Articles are flying around the web on this, the consencous seems to be that with the new way RB's outside the top 3-5 get carries (read: not as many) and goal line speciality backs are starting to dominate, that brady and manning, both of whom don't throw picks and score a ton of TD's and yards, are great top 5 picks in most leagues.

If jeff had one top 5 pick, i'd say HB every time. with the 1 and 3?

i take a RB 1st and either manning or brady 3rd. both have 4-6 more real productive years left, and are less likely to suffer a major injury than a running back.

for the pick in round 3, i'd take a goal line RB. or whoever denver names the starter lol. (kidding)

You just afirrmed my point.  With how bad the RBs are outside the top 5, how do you not giddily leap at the chance to have 2 of them?  Sure, it'd be awesome to have Brady... but if he could get Brees with his 3rd pick, or Palmer/Big Ben/Andersen in the 4/5 area or even Cutler in 8 or 9, I'd rather have two backs that will dominate and give up 6 points a week in the QB spot.

palmer isn't equivlent to get brees. last year, in standered scoring brady and manning finshed ahead, by far, of every back except westbrook, LT, and AP.

the drop off is huge. not only because those guys dont throw as much (the pats and colts are pass happy) but because they fumble and throw picks.

Manning, for the last 4 years, has been in the top 5 in points, every single year.

brady is more of a risk.

I would go LT and Manning with those picks, and then take a goal line back, who will give you huge numbers for no risk.

[blake]

Who the hell gave you that pick?  Did you see him commit murder and he owes you one?  That is crazy.  Anyways.  

I'm all about taking a QB early, but not that early.  If you have a chance to get LT and AD or Westbrook then you have to jump at that.  I'm a fan of Westbrook since its a ppr league, but depending on the league settings for keeper AD will be hard to pass up. I would go  RB/RB/romo/wr/welker/wr/te.  After that I would take every young flyer you can.  You have a team that won't lose if you take RB/RB first.

Another strategy would be to take RB/QB/WR/Mcfadden.  It is a lot more risk, but could pay big dividends in a keeper league.


No matter what you choose to do you will dominate your league this year. I can't believe someone let you have the 1st and 3rd pick.

[Jeff]

yeah, the more I think about it the more I think I'll stick to 2 RBs and hope for Brees (or even Romo??) to fall to me later

[crownsy]

yeah, the more I think about it the more I think I'll stick to 2 RBs and hope for Brees (or even Romo??) to fall to me later

romo > brees, only because i don't belive in drew's weopens. colston is good, the rest is meh.

the cowboys WR core is stacked.

[nickagneta]

Gotta chime in and say that blake's RB/QB/WR/McFadden is a very intriguing idea. It might not be the best results for this year but could pay huge dividends down the road. I think McFadden is the real deal.

TP blake very creative.

[Jeff]

for those interested, here's how my draft went

I picked LT, the next guy took AP, and I took Addai next.  Westbrook and Brady went right after that.

Way down at 26 I picked Brees and then it seems I must have had a thing for guys named Johnson (please, no off color jokes)

here's my roster so far (we'll do waivers later this week)

LT
Addai
Brees
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Chad (Johnson) Ocho Cinco
Chris Johnson
Chris Cooley
Julius Jones
Dwayne Bowe
Sidney Rice
Felix Jones
Rashard Mendenhall

I have first waiver claim, so I'll pick up the Colts defense and at some point a kicker and a backup QB

how'd I do?