FFL: 2 picks in top 3

[Jeff]

ok, through a series of trades (keeper league) I positioned myself with the top pick and the 3rd overall pick in my league with my next pick not until 20 & 21

the thinking is that I can get two elite RBs and let everything else flow from there, but now I have to decide who to pick

LT is my #1 - I toyed with AP for a while because of the keeper value, but I figure if he's there at 3, I'll take him

the guy with the 2nd pick is an Eagles fan, so I'm hoping he takes Westbrook so I can nab AP

if he takes AP, do I just take Westbrook?  or do I go with Addai who has more upside and less injury history?

thanks in advance

[Lucky17]

Points-per-reception league? Then go Westbrook, if AP is unavailable.

Email your Eagles friend, and subtly inquire which way he's leaning. Since it's a keeper league, I'd see what could be done about swapping picks with him to ensure you get AP.

Posing a question to others: why not take AP at #1?

[jgod213]

Everybody seems to be on the Westbrook express this year, which makes me nervous; however, i'm a big fan of this guy and would personally take him over Addai.  i think they're very similar players, but Phili lacks the big play WR that Peyton has in Wayne and Harrison, meaning Westbrook should get his 5+ touches/game in the air this year no problem.

Either way, you can't go wrong with AP or Westbrook.  Just remember that if you do go AP, scoop up Chester Taylor before someone else does.

[crownsy]

honestly, the way they are both playing and will be playing for the next 3-5 years, along with the death of the true "single" back, i would strongly consider manning or brady at the third pick.

I mean, when your talking elite RB's its LT,AP and westbrooke.

the problem with taking two of them in a keeper league is A) one of them may break down. The average life of a RB is not long. the fantasy football road is littered with shaun alexanders.

I dont think you could go wrong with LT/manning or LT/brady

any other QB i would pass on, but those two both have such rock solid offenses, you know there going to put up points. plus, injuryies are MUCH less common to starting QB's then RB's.

[nickagneta]

I'd go with Addai at #3 and AP at #1. It is a keeper league after all and LT is getting to that age where all RBs start to see a drop off. You can only take so many hits so many years in a row before Father Time and the injury bug start to creep in.

The AP choice is easy and I don't think needs explaining. I'd go Addai #3 because a think he could start to see a whole lot of Addai catching the ball out of the backfield(meaning even more than last year) as Harrison becomes older and less effective and also because I'm not a giant fan of Anthony Gonzalez. Also, with Manning coming in with a tender knee he may look for the safety valve outlet to Addai more not wanting to hang that extra second in the pocket and take the hit.

Besides both are young and have many years left in them and both are dangerous running the ball and catching the ball. If opponents of Minnesota start to pack it in trying to stop the run watch for the evolution of AP out of the backfield in screens and underneath routes. 

[crownsy]

I'd go with Addai at #3 and AP at #1. It is a keeper league after all and LT is getting to that age where all RBs start to see a drop off. You can only take so many hits so many years in a row before Father Time and the injury bug start to creep in.

The AP choice is easy and I don't think needs explaining. I'd go Addai #3 because a think he could start to see a whole lot of Addai catching the ball out of the backfield(meaning even more than last year) as Harrison becomes older and less effective and also because I'm not a giant fan of Anthony Gonzalez. Also, with Manning coming in with a tender knee he may look for the safety valve outlet to Addai more not wanting to hang that extra second in the pocket and take the hit.

Besides both are young and have many years left in them and both are dangerous running the ball and catching the ball. If opponents of Minnesota start to pack it in trying to stop the run watch for the evolution of AP out of the backfield in screens and underneath routes. 

so you guys dont by the stats on tom and peyton eh?

to me, those are no brainer top 5 picks. they both toasted every RB outside of LT, AP, and westbrook last year. peyton has been doing it for years now, tom only one.

i know the double RB system is entrenched, but to me, its foolish not to pick up one of those two.

other QB's no, point machines like peyton and tom yes.

[nickagneta]

I'd go with Addai at #3 and AP at #1. It is a keeper league after all and LT is getting to that age where all RBs start to see a drop off. You can only take so many hits so many years in a row before Father Time and the injury bug start to creep in.

The AP choice is easy and I don't think needs explaining. I'd go Addai #3 because a think he could start to see a whole lot of Addai catching the ball out of the backfield(meaning even more than last year) as Harrison becomes older and less effective and also because I'm not a giant fan of Anthony Gonzalez. Also, with Manning coming in with a tender knee he may look for the safety valve outlet to Addai more not wanting to hang that extra second in the pocket and take the hit.

Besides both are young and have many years left in them and both are dangerous running the ball and catching the ball. If opponents of Minnesota start to pack it in trying to stop the run watch for the evolution of AP out of the backfield in screens and underneath routes. 

so you guys dont by the stats on tom and peyton eh?

to me, those are no brainer top 5 picks. they both toasted every RB outside of LT, AP, and westbrook last year. peyton has been doing it for years now, tom only one.

i know the double RB system is entrenched, but to me, its foolish not to pick up one of those two.

other QB's no, point machines like peyton and tom yes.

Don't get me wrong I think that is also I viable option. I took Brady #1 with the fourth overall in my FFL. But that's not a sleeper league and the league I'm in hasn't done what a lot of FFLs are doing lately by giving only 4 pts for a TD pass and being able to get points on yardage only after 250-300 yards. Those things hamper the ability of QB's to be scorers and I think it's been a stupid trend over the years.

But Addai and AP are young and quite possibly could be 1-2 in yardage and rushing TDs for the next several years as well as being good out of the backfield. In a keeper league having them in the backfield would be huge as at 20 and 21 jeff could still come by a fairly decent scorer of a QB and maybe a top flight WR.

Lastly in a keeper league I wouldn't trust Manning and Brady. Sooner or later they are going to have their consecutive game strings stopped. QBs just don't go as many years in a row without missing time like these guys have. I know managing out of fear is dumb but that and age of player are things to keep in the back of your mind in a keeper league.

[crownsy]

Lastly in a keeper league I wouldn't trust Manning and Brady. Sooner or later they are going to have their consecutive game strings stopped. QBs just don't go as many years in a row without missing time like these guys have. I know managing out of fear is dumb but that and age of player are things to keep in the back of your mind in a keeper league

ok, i get the rest of your post, but your not taking them in a keeper league because of injuries? and yet you trust running backs, who's careers are one hit away from regersion/end? 

RB's go down constantly, good and bad backs. they are the most injury prone roster spot in Fantasy football.

i dont get this part man, the rest of your post i see, this i dont.

[Lucky17]

Lastly in a keeper league I wouldn't trust Manning and Brady. Sooner or later they are going to have their consecutive game strings stopped. QBs just don't go as many years in a row without missing time like these guys have. I know managing out of fear is dumb but that and age of player are things to keep in the back of your mind in a keeper league

ok, i get the rest of your post, but your not taking them in a keeper league because of injuries? and yet you trust running backs, who's careers are one hit away from regersion/end? 

RB's go down constantly, good and bad backs. they are the most injury prone roster spot in Fantasy football.

i dont get this part man, the rest of your post i see, this i dont.

Well, we're talking about picks #1 and #3 here. Taking either Brady or Manning at #3, I think, would be a stretch. And nick's discussion of scoring systems (where QB's get 4 pts, not 6, per TD) is especially relevant here.

Besides, Jeff could conceivably take Manning at #20, when Jeff's next pick is up. If not, he can take some elite wideouts, and still might end up very good QB like Brees in the next round.

Lastly, I'm willing to bet that, this year, neither Brady nor Manning put up numbers close to what they did last year. I don't believe Brady's foot injury is just another Belichek smokescreen, and the injury to Jeff Saturday plus Manning's own recovery from pre-season surgery will result in some early season hitches in the Colt offense.

[nickagneta]

Lastly in a keeper league I wouldn't trust Manning and Brady. Sooner or later they are going to have their consecutive game strings stopped. QBs just don't go as many years in a row without missing time like these guys have. I know managing out of fear is dumb but that and age of player are things to keep in the back of your mind in a keeper league

ok, i get the rest of your post, but your not taking them in a keeper league because of injuries? and yet you trust running backs, who's careers are one hit away from regersion/end? 

RB's go down constantly, good and bad backs. they are the most injury prone roster spot in Fantasy football.

i dont get this part man, the rest of your post i see, this i dont.

Like I said it's not something you make a decision on but it is something to keep in the back of your mind before making them one of your top picks in a keeper league. Both have unreal consecutive games streaks. Both are very rare to be that long. The odds are going to catch up to them eventually and Brady and Manning are going to go down.

Yes RBs good and bad go down all the time. But QBs almost never in the history of the league go on streaks where they don't miss a game like Brady and Manning are both doing. All I'm saying is the odds of them going down for an extended period of time over the next few years are probably as good if not better than a young star RB going down.

But don't make a decision based solely on that. If you're up in the air and just torn between say Brady and Addai at #3, it's just another thing to keep in mind that's all. Way in the back of your mind.

I guess I should have explained it further.

[crownsy]

Lastly in a keeper league I wouldn't trust Manning and Brady. Sooner or later they are going to have their consecutive game strings stopped. QBs just don't go as many years in a row without missing time like these guys have. I know managing out of fear is dumb but that and age of player are things to keep in the back of your mind in a keeper league

ok, i get the rest of your post, but your not taking them in a keeper league because of injuries? and yet you trust running backs, who's careers are one hit away from regersion/end? 

RB's go down constantly, good and bad backs. they are the most injury prone roster spot in Fantasy football.

i dont get this part man, the rest of your post i see, this i dont.

Well, we're talking about picks #1 and #3 here. Taking either Brady or Manning at #3, I think, would be a stretch. And nick's discussion of scoring systems (where QB's get 4 pts, not 6, per TD) is especially relevant here.

Besides, Jeff could conceivably take Manning at #20, when Jeff's next pick is up. If not, he can take some elite wideouts, and still might end up very good QB like Brees in the next round.

Lastly, I'm willing to bet that, this year, neither Brady nor Manning put up numbers close to what they did last year. I don't believe Brady's foot injury is just another Belichek smokescreen, and the injury to Jeff Saturday plus Manning's own recovery from pre-season surgery will result in some early season hitches in the Colt offense.

i counted those leagues, so did others who ahve been writing about how those two break the mold.

brady has a freaking bone bruise (globe and herald running it today). he'll be fine. manning had a scope for all intents and purposes.

manning has been averaging a top 5 finish in fantasy sports points for 4 years now.

if jeff gets brady or manning pick 20, he will win his league, because the other owners are idiots.

[Lucky17]

Lastly in a keeper league I wouldn't trust Manning and Brady. Sooner or later they are going to have their consecutive game strings stopped. QBs just don't go as many years in a row without missing time like these guys have. I know managing out of fear is dumb but that and age of player are things to keep in the back of your mind in a keeper league

ok, i get the rest of your post, but your not taking them in a keeper league because of injuries? and yet you trust running backs, who's careers are one hit away from regersion/end? 

RB's go down constantly, good and bad backs. they are the most injury prone roster spot in Fantasy football.

i dont get this part man, the rest of your post i see, this i dont.

Well, we're talking about picks #1 and #3 here. Taking either Brady or Manning at #3, I think, would be a stretch. And nick's discussion of scoring systems (where QB's get 4 pts, not 6, per TD) is especially relevant here.

Besides, Jeff could conceivably take Manning at #20, when Jeff's next pick is up. If not, he can take some elite wideouts, and still might end up very good QB like Brees in the next round.

Lastly, I'm willing to bet that, this year, neither Brady nor Manning put up numbers close to what they did last year. I don't believe Brady's foot injury is just another Belichek smokescreen, and the injury to Jeff Saturday plus Manning's own recovery from pre-season surgery will result in some early season hitches in the Colt offense.

i counted those leagues, so did others who ahve been writing about how those two break the mold.

brady has a freaking bone bruise (globe and herald running it today). he'll be fine. manning had a scope for all intents and purposes.

manning has been averaging a top 5 finish in fantasy sports points for 4 years now.

if jeff gets brady or manning pick 20, he will win his league, because the other owners are idiots.

Have no doubt both will be fine, but I also think that neither will be rounding into form until Week 3/4, both having missed the entire preseason. We'll see.

[Donoghus]

Alright, here's a question.

League is 10 teams.  6 points for passing TD, 6 points for rushing TD, 6 points for receiving TD. 1 pt every 25 yards passing, 4 point bonus for 300 yds passing.  1 pt for every 10 yards rushing, 4 pt bonus for 100 yd game.  Also, its points per reception.

Number one pick.  Brady or Tomlinson.  Point system is seriously making me contemplate Brady.

Thoughts?

[Big Ticket]

In my opinion, you have to go LT #2 and Addai #3.  Yeah, if AP falls to you at 3, go for it, but if that happens, your Eagles friend is... well... yeah...

How long has the league been going on and how confident are you that you and the rest of the managers will still be into into 3-5+ years from now?  If it is a sure thing to last a long time, then MAYBE LT over Peterson, but only then.  I am the biggest AP fan on this board, but even I think it's foolish to pass on the short term results that LT has proven to provide. 

Either way, you've got the right mind set by going RB-RB.  I'd even recommend grabbing MJD with your 20-21 turnaround if he's there, or some other top back.  RB is so thin right now and everyone is going to the tandem backfield... MJD will be a horse once Fragile Fred Taylor really drops off soon.  Grad Mojo and Colston (or whichever top receiver is around) and then take another receiver (Boldin, Welker, Marshall should be around assuming you have the 40-41 picks) and maybe Palmer or even a third receiver.  Guys like Hasselbeck and Cutler should be around for your 60-61 spot (although Cutler could be high on some boards because of the keeper option).

Either way, you've got a great opportunity to dominate with those two early picks.

[nickagneta]

Alright, here's a question.

League is 10 teams.  6 points for passing TD, 6 points for rushing TD, 6 points for receiving TD. 1 pt every 25 yards passing, 4 point bonus for 300 yds passing.  1 pt for every 10 yards rushing, 4 pt bonus for 100 yd game.  Also, its points per reception.

Number one pick.  Brady or Tomlinson.  Point system is seriously making me contemplate Brady.

Thoughts?

That's basically the FFL I'm in Dons and I went with Brady as my first pick at number 4. LT, AP, and Westbrook went 1,2,3 in my draft so I was left with Brady, Manning or Addai so I thought it a no brainer. But at number 1, hmmmmm, well with the easy schedule that the Pats have I really can't see Brady throwing less than 35 TDs and having less than 10 over 300 games so I would say Brady. But even if you don't a Brees or Rothlisberger will still be available in the late second early third round for you.