young point guards starting out?

[rollie mass]

How many point guards come in at 19/20 year olds and can run a NBA offense while also playing defense over a full season
Signing Jabari Bird just triggered the thought, how young both Fultz and Ball are.What are their projections for their rookie season? That would include Simmons but he has had a year to get comfortable and he is 6-10
How will they adjust to NBA length and speed.In isaiah always had to play against bigger people.His speed, quickness, strength and size he turned into an asset-
In college both Ball and Fultz had height advantages.How will they react to physical play,hard screens? We saw Marcus take on Cousins-that was unforgettable
,Jaylen took on Lebron at both ends -that was unforgettable
Simmons has the advantage being 6-10 playing point forward and has had a year working out-

[Boris Badenov]

I did a query on this. Maybe not exactly what you want Rollie but here are the criteria:

1. Age 19/20
2. 60+ games started
3. Above "replacement level" defined as either
       a. PER>13
       b. WS48>0.100

Here are the two lists:

http://bkref.com/tiny/UZMkN

http://bkref.com/tiny/BSw6M

These are pretty loose criteria IMO. But those lists are pretty short.

[Roy H.]

I did a query on this. Maybe not exactly what you want Rollie but here are the criteria:

1. Age 19/20
2. 60+ games started
3. Above "replacement level" defined as either
       a. PER>13
       b. WS48>0.100

Here are the two lists:

http://bkref.com/tiny/UZMkN

http://bkref.com/tiny/BSw6M

These are pretty loose criteria IMO. But those lists are pretty short.

The criteria missed Kyrie's excellent rookie year in the 66 game 2012 season, and several other guys have shown immediate PG skills as a rookie (like Magic, who had just turned 20).

Ultimately, history won't tell us all that much about the chances of Ball and Fultz in their rookie seasons. The odds seem against them making an immediate impact, but plenty of great players have been outliers.

[Boris Badenov]

I did a query on this. Maybe not exactly what you want Rollie but here are the criteria:

1. Age 19/20
2. 60+ games started
3. Above "replacement level" defined as either
       a. PER>13
       b. WS48>0.100

Here are the two lists:

http://bkref.com/tiny/UZMkN

http://bkref.com/tiny/BSw6M

These are pretty loose criteria IMO. But those lists are pretty short.

The criteria missed Kyrie's excellent rookie year in the 66 game 2012 season, and several other guys have shown immediate PG skills as a rookie (like Magic, who had just turned 20).

Ultimately, history won't tell us all that much about the chances of Ball and Fultz in their rookie seasons. The odds seem against them making an immediate impact, but plenty of great players have been outliers.

These criteria are extremely generous.

As an example, last year alone there were 165 players who met the PER and G thresholds, and 114 who met the WS48 threshold.

On those lists you have guys like Jame Ennis, Cole Aldrich, Tarik Black, Jeremy Lamb, Sam Dekker, Ian Clark, Frank Kaminsky...the list goes on and on.

Over the last 35+ years you have probably 5,000 player-seasons meeting these criteria and 10 of them have been by rookie PGs age 20 or younger.

[Boris Badenov]

On the flip side, it's fair to say there haven't been many rookie PGs that young, mostly since draft ages were older once you look back more than a decade or so. I count maybe 50 total who were 20 or younger. So from that pool, the "hit rate" looks better, especially if you restrict to guys who were taken in the high lottery.