Author Topic: What can we get for Tatum?  (Read 17152 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #105 on: November 02, 2019, 04:52:36 AM »

Offline Somebody

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7816
  • Tommy Points: 560
  • STAND FIRM, SAY NO TO VIBE MEN
We almost traded him for one year of a disgruntled Anthony Davis lol

Anthony Davis is a LOT better then Karl Anthony Towns.

Yes because KAT's offense (if he maintains his form in his first three games before the ejection against Philly) is devastating: if you quantify offense in three dimensions such as points per 75 possessions (roughly the amount in a normal NBA game), TS% relative to league and assists per 75 possessions (I'm aware that assists do not capture the quality of passing, but I can't find KAT's box creation stats due to a small sample size), he's only matched by the greatest two big man offensive centrepieces ever in Shaquille O'Neal and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He also provides more defensive value due to being a big man who's not an absolute mess on defense. Tatum will need to pump up his passing significantly, ntm upping his scoring volume and efficiency while maintaining or improving his ball security before he can create an offensive advantage large enough to cover for KAT's inherent advantage on defense.

KAT's current numbers so far this year are 27.3 points, 11.5 rebounds. 4 assists, 54% FG, 53% 3PT, 63% FT.

His numbers last year were 24.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 52% FG, 40% 3PT, 83% FT.

With the exception of his three point percentage (which I assure you, will not continue to be above 50%), and his extra 3PG (which likely come from those extra threes) his numbers haven't changed much at all since last year - when was constantly putting up glorious numbers in a horribly underachieving Timberwolves team.

So far this year the team is 3-1; I'd like to see if that continues (and how Tatum's progress continues) for at least a good 20-25 games in to the season before I'd even dream of making that move.  Because personally, I really don't care what Towns is doing on a raw box sheet if he continues to prove he is unable to lead a team. 

When you have great players who dont have that clutch mentality you end up with teams like pre-Kawhi Raptors and the Houston Rockets.  Teams that  post amazing regular season records and then get knocked out of the playoffs because their star players just can't bring it when you need it the most.   

It's the reason why it has traditionally been guys like Dwyane Wade, Kyrie Irving and Ray Allen who have been making the game winning playoff shots on Lebron-led teams.  When he hasn't had those guys he's been unable to get it done, because he as great as he is he just isn't that clutch.

Again I can totally understand why you'd be excited about the idea of trading for a guy like KAT, he's clearly a supermely talented player.  But one could argue talent alone only takes you so far.  When it's the playoffs and the game is on the line, I'd rather have Kobe then Lebron - even if Lebron is a better player.  When it's the playoffs and the game is on the line, I'd rather have Paul Pierce then James Harden, even though Westbrook is a better individual player.  When it's the playoffs and the game is on the line, I'd probably rather have Tatum then Karl Anthony Towns, even though KAT is the better player. 

When push comes to shove it's all about heart, and as far as I can see KAT hasn't got any.
I did say excluding from that game against Philly-I think the ejection shouldn't be viewed as a normal game from Towns. His averages in the three dimensions I mentioned (excluding the Philly game) are: 32.55 points and 5.1 assists per 75 possessions (elite passing bigs like Garnett peaked at around 6) on +11.1% TS. These are transcendent figures, and the eye test backs them up: he has a devastating scoring game that combines efficient volume scoring from all three levels with improved passing that can uncork high value passes. He's clearly improved his game this season, and I rate his offense (assuming that his stats stabilise to something like 27-30 points per 75 and 4-6 assists per 75 on +6-10% TS) on par with the two great centers I mentioned. I think he'll be able to drag this Minnesota team to the playoffs this season, and possibly lead them to a deep playoff run if the ball bounces their way simple based on how devastating his offense is after his recent maturation.

I also don't believe in the "clutch gene" at all-basketball is a high variance game that is affected by factors that one player can't control. What I do rate is how "resilient" a player's offense is, namely how does their offensive game hold up against playoff defenses. I think KAT's current offense will hold up well against playoff defenses-it's incredibly hard to take away efficient volume scoring from all three levels of the court, and KAT's improved passing ability allows him to make things even harder for defenses since he can now take advantage of double teams and find high leverage passes after warping the defense with the threat of his offensive game.

I love Tatum but I'd take KAT over him every day of the week and twice on Sundays. His offense is reaching transcendency to go along with his improving defense.

Btw I meant KAT with my comment on defense. Tatum is a positive on defense, but his defensive value as a wing will always be lower than a passable defensive big due to the inherent ability of big men to alter high percentage looks near the basket that usually hold the highest offensive value, as well as provide valuable help defense to blow up plays.

I certainly see what you are saying about KAT, though I defintely do not agree with you around the "clutch" argument.  There is plenty of statistical information out there to show that some guys simply make more clutch shots (and/or shoot ahigher percentage in the clutch) then others.  Some guys savour the big moments and excel in them, while others fold under the pressure. 

It's something even NBA GM's and coaches are well aware of.  Danny Ainge during an interview (I think it was in the postseason) made a comment about Carson Edwads something along the lines of "he lives for those moments and makes big shots, and that's definitely one of the things you at when scouting players".  It's unquestionably a thing. 

Now you can argue that it's often irrelevant, because if you are good enough to dominate your opponent, then you will never need clutch shots.  But how many games did Boston in the Big-3 era win games because of the late game heroics of guys like Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett - even when matched up against better players?  How many games did we win a few years back because of late game heroics from Isaiah Thomas?

I also think leadership is huge.  I think the whole scenario with Kyrie last season proved that.  I think KAT's talent is undeniable, but I just don't think he has the mentality to carry a team to a championship.

Maybe it could work as a Lebron/Kyrie type scenario, where KAT is your best player but Kemba is your closer - possible that could work.  But I just don't like the idea of relying so much on a guy who simply hasn't proven he's capable of winning, and a guy who has been exposed by other stars in the league for being "soft". 

As for the argument over bigs vs wings, I do understand your defensive argument.  At the same time though, the league does seem to be dominated by wings rightn now.  Most of the title winning teams over the past decade have been led by great wings or guards.  Most of the most dominat players in the league are wings.  Giannis, Kawhi, Lebron and Durant have arguably been the most dominant and game changing guys in the league the past several years.  Those are the guys you need to be able to contend with if you want to compete for titles.  Jayson Tatum, if he realises his potential, could well develop in to the type of guy who can compete with those players. He has the physical gifts for it and the talent.

As for bigs - the only bigs in the league I can think of that we really need to worrya bout are Anthony Davis in LA and Joel Embiid in Philly.  Neither has proven themselves as being winners yet,and both are hugely injury prone. 

There's also someting special about the fact that Jayson is our guy - we drafted him, we developed him from the ground up.  He's been a Celtic from day one, is a face of the franchise, and I feel there's something special about thst.  .

I also just really love his personality.  He's modest, yet has the confidence to take the big shot every time.  He's smart, yet still eager to learn and highly coachable.  Prideful, yet still has immense respect for his his opponents and those who came before him. He seems like the type of personality that other guys around the league would just love to play with and coaches would love to coach.  Not saying KAT isn't (as he seems like a nice guy too), but in KAT's case that niceness seems to come at the cost of some other important trats (confidence, leadership, toughness) while Tatum doesn't seem to have same weaknesses as far as I can see.

Either way I totally get your reasoning and dont blame you at all for feeling that way, I just personally don't feel the same way :) 

Also here is a nice little link that I enjoyed reading:
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jayson-tatums-biggest-moment-came-after-his-first-career-winner
And that's predicated on their offensive games. There's really no "clutchness" involved, most of the time it depends on how "resilient" their offense is. Maybe you can argue that some players have more balls to take (and make) big shots more than others, but I personally don't believe that it's that big of a deal when you're comparing superstars, most of them have the mental game down imo. And Garnett's the guy I wanted to talk about the most when it comes to disproving "clutchness", prior to joining Boston he had the reputation of being a "choker"-his scoring wasn't resilient enough to be "clutch". But after joining Boston his reputation is suddenly that of a "winner" who has the requisite ability to make "big plays down the stretch" because his game was tailor made to be that of an elusive ceiling raiser who scales up with better talent rather than your run of the mill high efficiency volume scorer who struggles to mesh with talented teammates.

I also don't buy the Kyrie/KAT comparison-KAT is nowhere near the headcase that our beloved two faced saboteur is. And KAT being soft? Just because he didn't mesh well with a major **** in Jimmy Butler (who has a history of alienating teammates who aren't rah rah tough) doesn't mean that he's a soft guy with 0 leadership skills-he's been doing some pretty solid floor raising in Minnesota after Butler's departure. I'd definitely welcome KAT being a leader of our team if he comes here, I don't see any major red flags.

The league in the past decade has definitely been dominated by wings, but it also has been the weakest era for big men. Imo a transcendent big man like KAT can lead teams to titles if they have a competent FO around them, it's not their fault that their front offices have been woefully incompetent. I also see the "proven winners" argument as a narrative rather than the truth-KG wasn't a "proven winner" when he came to Boston, but won a championship once he had viable championship level talent around him. I see KAT/AD/Embiid/Jokic as superstars who can win once they have a viable supporting cast around them.

I do understand your point about Tatum being a homegrown talent, and I'm partial to that narrative as well. But I still believe that when you have a shot to get a big man like KAT on a good squad you'll need to do whatever it takes, and that includes trading a young wing with All-NBA potential if it's required.

I understand your arguments though, it's difficult to drop narratives fed to us since we started following basketball. Just speaking my mind :laugh:, and that article was a good read.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2019, 05:05:56 AM by Somebody »
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #106 on: November 02, 2019, 07:58:07 AM »

Offline trickybilly

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5593
  • Tommy Points: 617
We almost traded him for one year of a disgruntled Anthony Davis lol

I will always wonder if Davis said something to a trusted C's player (Smart?) letting Danny know that he was unlikely to stay at C's if they traded for him.
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #107 on: November 02, 2019, 08:12:24 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20000
  • Tommy Points: 1323
Ainge is not trading Tatum, period.   He is the future.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #108 on: November 02, 2019, 08:26:34 AM »

Offline Somebody

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7816
  • Tommy Points: 560
  • STAND FIRM, SAY NO TO VIBE MEN
Ainge is not trading Tatum, period.   He is the future.
For sure, I think he's a very good player with a ton of potential.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #109 on: November 02, 2019, 08:27:26 AM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
We almost traded him for one year of a disgruntled Anthony Davis lol

I will always wonder if Davis said something to a trusted C's player (Smart?) letting Danny know that he was unlikely to stay at C's if they traded for him.

According to David Griffin, Rich Paul said it directly to them.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #110 on: November 02, 2019, 08:37:22 AM »

Offline trickybilly

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5593
  • Tommy Points: 617
We almost traded him for one year of a disgruntled Anthony Davis lol

I will always wonder if Davis said something to a trusted C's player (Smart?) letting Danny know that he was unlikely to stay at C's if they traded for him.

According to David Griffin, Rich Paul said it directly to them.

I forgot about that. Whadda guy!
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #111 on: November 02, 2019, 09:13:55 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 36776
  • Tommy Points: 2961
Ainge is not trading Tatum, period.   He is the future.


Yup....Brown and Smart are nice pieces .   Tatum has serious value .

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #112 on: November 02, 2019, 11:05:29 AM »

Offline cman88

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5153
  • Tommy Points: 359
tatum is 21 years old and is so far averaging 22ppg and 7.6 RPG and people want him traded?

and this is with him shooting at 40% so far vs. his career average of 45% and 76% on free throws vs. 83%

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #113 on: November 02, 2019, 06:31:12 PM »

Offline Jvalin

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3737
  • Tommy Points: 737
What can we get for Tatum?
I'm a big fan of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's game. In all honesty, I'd rather have SGA over Tatum. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

Kemba
SGA
Brown
Hayward
Kanter/Theis/R. Williams

I believe this would be a much more balanced team in terms of ball movement and defensive potential.

- As things stand right now, our only above average defender in the starting lineup is Brown (assuming Kanter is the starting C).
- We 'd have 3 willing passers/facilitators in the starting lineup. The ball movement would be amazing. I mean, let's face it: Tatum is a terrific scorer, but he's a ball stopper.

Problem is, SGA is at his best when running the point. Having said that, I'm fairly confident that he would be a good fit next to Kemba (just like he's proving to be a good fit next to CP3).

Btw, I'm watching Pelicans @ Thunder right now and SGA has already scored 21 points in 21 minutes.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2019, 07:46:40 PM »

Offline Fierce1

  • NGT
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2630
  • Tommy Points: 121
What can we get for Tatum?
I'm a big fan of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's game. In all honesty, I'd rather have SGA over Tatum. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

Kemba
SGA
Brown
Hayward
Kanter/Theis/R. Williams

I believe this would be a much more balanced team in terms of ball movement and defensive potential.

- As things stand right now, our only above average defender in the starting lineup is Brown (assuming Kanter is the starting C).
- We 'd have 3 willing passers/facilitators in the starting lineup. The ball movement would be amazing. I mean, let's face it: Tatum is a terrific scorer, but he's a ball stopper.

Problem is, SGA is at his best when running the point. Having said that, I'm fairly confident that he would be a good fit next to Kemba (just like he's proving to be a good fit next to CP3).

Btw, I'm watching Pelicans @ Thunder right now and SGA has already scored 21 points in 21 minutes.

Then SGA ends up scoring 23 points in 36 minutes.

SGA is good, but he's not that good.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #115 on: November 02, 2019, 08:53:06 PM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3141
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
What can we get for Tatum?
I'm a big fan of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's game. In all honesty, I'd rather have SGA over Tatum. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

Kemba
SGA
Brown
Hayward
Kanter/Theis/R. Williams

I believe this would be a much more balanced team in terms of ball movement and defensive potential.

- As things stand right now, our only above average defender in the starting lineup is Brown (assuming Kanter is the starting C).
- We 'd have 3 willing passers/facilitators in the starting lineup. The ball movement would be amazing. I mean, let's face it: Tatum is a terrific scorer, but he's a ball stopper.

Problem is, SGA is at his best when running the point. Having said that, I'm fairly confident that he would be a good fit next to Kemba (just like he's proving to be a good fit next to CP3).

Btw, I'm watching Pelicans @ Thunder right now and SGA has already scored 21 points in 21 minutes.
I'm an SGA fan, but his ceiling is lesser than Tatum's, and the likelihood of him being a star goes the same. Ironically, very similar numbers so far
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #116 on: November 02, 2019, 10:27:51 PM »

Offline gpap

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8224
  • Tommy Points: 417
We almost traded him for one year of a disgruntled Anthony Davis lol

I will always wonder if Davis said something to a trusted C's player (Smart?) letting Danny know that he was unlikely to stay at C's if they traded for him.

Rich Paul publicly stated last summer that if the Celtics traded for Davis, he would fulfill his contractual obligations, and then hit free agency. It was common knowledge.

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #117 on: November 13, 2019, 01:23:25 PM »

Offline Jvalin

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3737
  • Tommy Points: 737
Feel free to crucify me cause I dare to propose a Tatum trade. :P

Tatum for Jaren Jackson Jr (it works straight up)

Alternatively, Tatum for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + filler(s) (I've already expanded on this idea a few posts above)

Obviously, I have no clue whatsoever whether the Grizzlies/the Thunder would be interested in such a trade. For what it's worth, Tatum is from St Louis. Both Memphis and Oklahoma City are fairly close to St Louis. It's possible that they could feel confident about re-signing him long term (after his 2nd contract runs up).

The way I see it, JJJ would be an ideal fit for the C's at the 4-5 positions. He's exactly what we need. A defensive minded big who's perfectly happy to play off the ball on offense and can stretch the floor. To put it another way, he's Al Horford without the passing skills, but 13(!) years younger (hence he's way more athletic). Better measurements than Horford as well:

Horford (in 2007)
Height w/o Shoes 6' 8''
Height w/ Shoes 6' 9.75''
Weight 246.0
Wingspan 7' 0.75''
Standing Reach 8' 11''   
Body Fat 9.10%
Hand Length (not available)
Hand Width (not available)

JJJ (in 2018)
Height w/o Shoes 6' 9.75''
Height w/ Shoes 6' 11.25''    
Weight 236.0    
Wingspan 7' 5.25''
Standing Reach 9' 2''
Body Fat 7.20%
Hand Length 10.00    
Hand Width 10.00    
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 01:30:26 PM by Jvalin »

Re: What can we get for Tatum?
« Reply #118 on: November 13, 2019, 01:25:38 PM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619

Feel free to crucify me cause I dare to propose a Tatum trade. :P

Tatum for Jaren Jackson Jr (it works straight up)

Alternatively, Tatum for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander + filler(s) (I've already expanded on this idea a few posts above)

Obviously, I have no clue whatsoever whether the Grizzlies/the Thunder would be interested in such a trade. For what it's worth, Tatum is from St Louis. Both Memphis and Oklahoma City are fairly close to St Louis. It's possible that they could feel confident about re-signing him long term (after his 2nd contract runs up).

The way I see it, JJJ would be an ideal fit for the C's at the 4-5 positions. He's exactly what we need. A defensive minded big who's perfectly happy to play off the ball on offense and can stretch the floor. To put it another way, he's Al Horford without the passing skills, but 13(!) years younger (hence he's way more athletic). Better measurements than Horford as well:

Horford
Height w/o Shoes 6' 8''
Height w/ Shoes 6' 9.75''
Weight 246.0
Wingspan 7' 0.75''
Standing Reach 8' 11''   
Body Fat 9.10%
Hand Length (not available)
Hand Width (not available)

JJJ
Height w/o Shoes 6' 9.75''
Height w/ Shoes 6' 11.25''    
Weight 236.0    
Wingspan 7' 5.25''
Standing Reach 9' 2''
Body Fat 7.20%
Hand Length 10.00    
Hand Width 10.00

I think the idea is absurd, but I appreciate you posting it in a Tatum trade thread as opposed to hijacking other threads.