Noteworthy Celtics Stats

[#1P4P]

The Celtics lead the league in Offensive Rating, AST/TO, and in True Shooting %. They are also near the top of a host of other categories.

Grant leads the league in TS% at 75.9%.

Hauser leads the league in Net Rating at 19.

Jaylen is #2 in Mid-Range FG% at 58.5% (Steph is #1 at a ridiculous 62.5%).

I’ll be posting noteworthy stats here throughout the season. Feel free to post relevant stats or comment on the stats posted.

[Roy H.]

We're also 2nd in eFG% and 3rd in TO%.

Our only real offensive "problem" is ORB%, where we rank 27th.

In terms of defense, if I'm reading the numbers right, we're last in forcing turnovers, which seems uncharacteristic.  Our eFG% is 10th, and our DRB% is 11th.  We're sixth in terms of FG% allowed on two-pointers, but we're doing less well defending 3PTs (20th).  Our Def Rtg ranks 22nd. 

[Celtics2021]

We're also 2nd in eFG% and 3rd in TO%.

Our only real offensive "problem" is ORB%, where we rank 27th.

In terms of defense, if I'm reading the numbers right, we're last in forcing turnovers, which seems uncharacteristic.  Our eFG% is 10th, and our DRB% is 11th.  We're sixth in terms of FG% allowed on two-pointers, but we're doing less well defending 3PTs (20th).  Our Def Rtg ranks 22nd.

The good news it that this is a number that is most likely to change just to randomness.  From a study a few years ago:

There isn’t any strong evidence that teams can consistently coax poor shooting nights from distance. One way to examine this possibility is to split the season in two and compare how a team performs in its first 41 games versus its next 41 games; a team with this ability should be able to maintain it across both halves. Yet looking at the period from 2012-13 through 2018-19 (to avoid the lockout on one end and the pandemic-shortened season on the other), the correlation between first-half 3-point opponent accuracy and second-half 3-point opponent accuracy was only 0.12, on a scale in which 0 means no relationship and 1 means a perfect relationship. That’s a negligible result.

(For comparison, the correlation between first- and second-half 3-point accuracy for a team’s own shooters was a considerably stronger 0.42. Teams have a lot more control over their own offensive performance, versus their opponents’.)

A few more turnovers would be nice, and that's about all that's needed to return the C's to an elite defensive unit.  That feels pretty correctable, and also maybe a little due to luck.  I thought it might be that we aren't forcing turnovers because we're also dead-last in deflections, but last year we were fourth-worst in deflections and it didn't hurt us at all.

[sgrogan]

We're also 2nd in eFG% and 3rd in TO%.

Our only real offensive "problem" is ORB%, where we rank 27th.

In terms of defense, if I'm reading the numbers right, we're last in forcing turnovers, which seems uncharacteristic.  Our eFG% is 10th, and our DRB% is 11th.  We're sixth in terms of FG% allowed on two-pointers, but we're doing less well defending 3PTs (20th).  Our Def Rtg ranks 22nd.

The good news it that this is a number that is most likely to change just to randomness.  From a study a few years ago:

There isn’t any strong evidence that teams can consistently coax poor shooting nights from distance. One way to examine this possibility is to split the season in two and compare how a team performs in its first 41 games versus its next 41 games; a team with this ability should be able to maintain it across both halves. Yet looking at the period from 2012-13 through 2018-19 (to avoid the lockout on one end and the pandemic-shortened season on the other), the correlation between first-half 3-point opponent accuracy and second-half 3-point opponent accuracy was only 0.12, on a scale in which 0 means no relationship and 1 means a perfect relationship. That’s a negligible result.

(For comparison, the correlation between first- and second-half 3-point accuracy for a team’s own shooters was a considerably stronger 0.42. Teams have a lot more control over their own offensive performance, versus their opponents’.)

A few more turnovers would be nice, and that's about all that's needed to return the C's to an elite defensive unit.  That feels pretty correctable, and also maybe a little due to luck.  I thought it might be that we aren't forcing turnovers because we're also dead-last in deflections, but last year we were fourth-worst in deflections and it didn't hurt us at all.

The Celtic's were an outlier in that study.
https://www.nba.com/news/one-team-one-stat-boston-celtics-3-point-defense

[sgrogan]

The Celtics are 3rd in assists allowed.
This indicates to me the rotations have been effective.

[Moranis]

The on/off per 100 possession numbers are interesting

Of the regulars, Hauser leads the team at +17.3.  Kornet is next at +9.9, followed by White at +5.9, Tatum at +5.2, Williams at +4.2, and Vonleh at +3.3.  Smart is the worst on the team at -13.1.  Brown is also well into the negatives at -11.5.  Horford is -9.2 and Brogdon is -0.2. 

It is pretty interesting to see such a discrepancy among the starters.  That isn't usually typical, even if Tatum and Brown have a larger discrepancy than most teams top 2 players throughout the years.  Smart and Horford are usually solid in that number, but they have been very bad to start the year.

[sgrogan]

The on/off per 100 possession numbers are interesting

Of the regulars, Hauser leads the team at +17.3.  Kornet is next at +9.9, followed by White at +5.9, Tatum at +5.2, Williams at +4.2, and Vonleh at +3.3.  Smart is the worst on the team at -13.1.  Brown is also well into the negatives at -11.5.  Horford is -9.2 and Brogdon is -0.2. 

It is pretty interesting to see such a discrepancy among the starters.  That isn't usually typical, even if Tatum and Brown have a larger discrepancy than most teams top 2 players throughout the years.  Smart and Horford are usually solid in that number, but they have been very bad to start the year.

Small sample.
opps

[Vermont Green]

The on/off per 100 possession numbers are interesting

Of the regulars, Hauser leads the team at +17.3.  Kornet is next at +9.9, followed by White at +5.9, Tatum at +5.2, Williams at +4.2, and Vonleh at +3.3.  Smart is the worst on the team at -13.1.  Brown is also well into the negatives at -11.5.  Horford is -9.2 and Brogdon is -0.2. 

It is pretty interesting to see such a discrepancy among the starters.  That isn't usually typical, even if Tatum and Brown have a larger discrepancy than most teams top 2 players throughout the years.  Smart and Horford are usually solid in that number, but they have been very bad to start the year.

This is starting to level out.  A few games ago, Smart, Brown, and Horford were all quite a bit underwater for +/-, now only Jackson and Griffin are.  Hauser is still kind of an outlier but you are starting to see the names you would expect working their way up the ranks, be it +/-, on/off, NETRTG, whatever.  Horford and Smart are down the list still but I expect they will both trend up.  NETRTG is normalized per 100 possessions (like the stats quoted by Moranis) so they get distorted for those not playing much.

These stats are indicators, and worth paying attention to, but it is still just one measure.  Smart has been playing better, maybe even better than last season for the last few games.  I am a big believer in Marcus Smart.  I am not worried about him.  Same with Brown.  He will come around.  These stats will trend back to normal.  Horford is another story.  This may be what Al Horford is going to be this season.  And Hauser and Kornet?  Yeah, they have been pleasant surprises but their high marks are very situational.

[Moranis]

The on/off per 100 possession numbers are interesting

Of the regulars, Hauser leads the team at +17.3.  Kornet is next at +9.9, followed by White at +5.9, Tatum at +5.2, Williams at +4.2, and Vonleh at +3.3.  Smart is the worst on the team at -13.1.  Brown is also well into the negatives at -11.5.  Horford is -9.2 and Brogdon is -0.2. 

It is pretty interesting to see such a discrepancy among the starters.  That isn't usually typical, even if Tatum and Brown have a larger discrepancy than most teams top 2 players throughout the years.  Smart and Horford are usually solid in that number, but they have been very bad to start the year.

This is starting to level out.  A few games ago, Smart, Brown, and Horford were all quite a bit underwater for +/-, now only Jackson and Griffin are.  Hauser is still kind of an outlier but you are starting to see the names you would expect working their way up the ranks, be it +/-, on/off, NETRTG, whatever.  Horford and Smart are down the list still but I expect they will both trend up.  NETRTG is normalized per 100 possessions (like the stats quoted by Moranis) so they get distorted for those not playing much.

These stats are indicators, and worth paying attention to, but it is still just one measure.  Smart has been playing better, maybe even better than last season for the last few games.  I am a big believer in Marcus Smart.  I am not worried about him.  Same with Brown.  He will come around.  These stats will trend back to normal.  Horford is another story.  This may be what Al Horford is going to be this season.  And Hauser and Kornet?  Yeah, they have been pleasant surprises but their high marks are very situational.

As for Brown, what is his normal.  For his career his on/off differential per 100 possessions +0.6.  The team quite simply doesn't miss much when Brown isn't on the floor. 

Here are his full season numbers starting with his rookie year when he was a bench player not playing as much to last year

-7.5
+8.2
-3.7
-0.8
+0.6
+5.4

[Celtics2021]

As a reminder that we're still early in the season and that small sample-size is a real thing:

We were 22nd in Defensive Rating when this thread was started on Tuesday.  After beating the Hawks last night, we're now up to 16th in D-rating.  Still not where we want to be, but a couple of good or bad games can change the numbers pretty dramatically at this point.

Also, we're #1 in Net rating.  And as far as offense goes, the difference between the Celtics at number #1 and the Kings (?!?!?) at #2 is greater than the difference between #2 and #8.

[Hoopvortex]

We're also 2nd in eFG% and 3rd in TO%.

Sounds like you’re using the Four Factors orientation around breaking down team offense and defense; that’s what I do, too. You’ve cited three of them, so it’s natural to take a look at the other factor, which I’ll get to in a moment.

Of course it’s still early in the season, so it’s not too surprising that since you posted this reply Boston has slipped from 2nd to 3rd with eFG%; but they’re still #1 in Offense.

The stellar TOV% is especially interesting, given the changes in the offense from last year. There’s less reliance on Tatum and Brown making plays for teammates and more on Marcus Smart. That seems counterintuitive, given that Smart has historically been more turnover-prone than The Two Jays®.

I’ve argued in the past that Marcus is not a point guard; but at age 28 he’s actually become one in the old sense of the term. His AST% is a career high (by far) 29.2, even as his TOV% has declined from 16.4% to an almost acceptable 13.4%. Again on the “classic point guard” theme (don’t want to exaggerate that but it’s a useful reference, even as the term has fallen out of favor in today’s game) - as his assist numbers have increased, his usage has gone down: 18.3%/16.5%. Marcus has never been a high-usage player (no matter what position you think he plays), but he’s now only using just over half of what Jayson uses.

Jayson and Jaylen’s assist numbers have both declined, even as their usage %s have stayed about the same: Jayson 21.1/17.4; Jaylen 17.9/15.5. Interesting - they’re both less likely to make a play for someone else this year. More responsibility on Marcus Smart to create offense, while his usage% has gone down.

Team assists/game are up 5.6%, but it’s also true that the Celtics play a faster pace than with Udoka.

Our only real offensive "problem" is ORB%, where we rank 27th.

In the Udoka year, they were 8th. This will bear watching. A lot of Statheads will tell you that you’re better off crashing the O board than risking giving up transition points; that may be true in the aggregate, but I’d suggest that today’s Celtics just don’t have the personnel - at least until Rob gets back and we see more two-big lineups - Peyton Pritchard’s recent heroics notwithstanding.

That leaves the fourth of the Four Factors, Free Throw Makes per Field Goal Attempt. You didn’t mention this one, but the improvement in this area is one of the key reasons that Boston’s offense as a whole has improved. The FT shooting% is higher, though for the season the team was already 2nd in the league in the Ime era. The difference in this stat is a combination of better FT shooting and a higher % of possessions used at the line. .195 to .222, or from 15th in the league to 10th. For those who’ve been tracking this stat since Brad Stevens was coach, this change is one of the most welcome signs of an emerging contender. Simply put, it’s hard to win a quarter against a team that consistently gets in the bonus early.

Here’s where I say some version of, To Be Continued.

[Donoghus]

Max
@lissmx14
In their last 50 regular season games, the Celtics are 40-10 (66 win 82-game pace)

• 28-7 last season w/ a league leading +15.2 efficiency differential*

• 12-3 this season w/ a league leading +7.9 efficiency differential*

*point differential per 100 poss via
@cleantheglass

[#1P4P]

We're also 2nd in eFG% and 3rd in TO%.

Our only real offensive "problem" is ORB%, where we rank 27th.

In terms of defense, if I'm reading the numbers right, we're last in forcing turnovers, which seems uncharacteristic.  Our eFG% is 10th, and our DRB% is 11th.  We're sixth in terms of FG% allowed on two-pointers, but we're doing less well defending 3PTs (20th).  Our Def Rtg ranks 22nd.

Based on the stats, we’re prioritizing defending the fast break instead offensive rebounding.  at or near the top of every opponent fast break category (FGA, FGM, FG%).

On defense, we are prioritizing defending the rim (#1 in FGM in opponent’s shots inside of 5 feet, #3 in FGA, and #8 in FG%) and the 3 (top 10); while baiting teams in to playing ISO and shooting contested mid-range and they are taking the bait. Milwaukee is the only other team on our level forcing mid-range shots, while we’re still down Rob.

Despite the DEF RTG, the numbers are very encouraging.

[#1P4P]

Remember when we were a terrible 4th quarter team?

This season, we’re 5th in DEF RTG, 3rd in NET RTG, 1st in EFG% and TS% in the 4th quarter.

[Ed Monix]

Boston Celtics have their most assists (424), thru 16 games, since Larry Bird was on the floor in 1990/91.

It’s their highest assist to turnover rate (2.08) since the stat was tracked in 1977/78 or 46 years ago.

They’re also averaging 4 more assists per game than last year.



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Source: Boston Sports Info