Genuinely interested to hear people's thoughts on 3 inter related questions:
1) which one do Celtics brass want to keep long-term?
2) which is valued more around the league?
3) who do you want to keep long-term?
My answer is Tatum to all three, but a mile. Here's my evaluation:
Brown Brown is primarily an athletic slashing wing. He has show flashes of being able to do multiple things at an above average level, but y concern is that he hasn't shown many flashes of elite skill, and he's also been riddled with inconsistency.
1. Defense
Brown made his mark in the NBA early by playing tough defense, and in his first / second year he was impessive on that end. I would normally list this as a major strength of his, if not for the fact that least year he completely turned things around and looked totally lost on the defensive end for most of the season. And his defensive stats reflected that, with him consistently rating near the bottom of the team in advanced defensive stats. This is one area of the game where Brown MAY have potential to become special, but for me to really belive that he'll need to be a lot better defensively this coming season then he was last season.
2. Slashing
The other trademark talent Brown has his his slashing ability - his ability to explode to the basket, get in the paint and draw fouls was pretty impressive in his first and second seasons, when he managed a pretty impressive 29% free throw rate. However that dropped to 25% last season (which is decent, but nothing special), and he was noticeably less effective getting to the basket and drawing fouls - something the entire Celtics team struggled with. I see this as Jaylen's potential second elite talent, but am a little put off by the fact he regressed at this last year (just as he did with his defense).
3. Other Talents
Can Brown shoot? Yeah. He's has proven he is capable and dependable enough as a shooter. But averages of 34%, 39% and 34% don't jump out at me and suggest "future 3 point champion" by any means. His free throw percentages of 69%, 64% and 66% also don't instill huge confidence in Browns potential as a shooter - he certainly doesn't look like he'll be the next Klay Thompson.
What about shot creation? Mmm...yeah he can occasionally create his own shot. He has SOME success making fadeaway midrange jumpers in post up situations. But it's not really a shot he successful enough with to use as a go-to move or anything like that. For the most part he's scoring in transition, making spot up jumpers, or putting his head down and driving hard to the basket - if you clog up the lane his ability to get points becomes pretty limited.
What about the other bits, like passing, dribbling and rebounding? Honestly he's not really shown much as a passer/playmaker. His ball handling skills are pretty limited (think: Jeff Green) and is IMHO the biggest thing limiting his ability to play the SG spot effectively. His rebounding numbers have been consistently solid for a SF, at just under 6 rebounds per 36 throughout his career, but they aren't standout by any means. Tatum has shown slightly more potential as a rebounder, averaging 7 rebounds per 36 last season.
4. Conclusion
Ultimately brown is an athletic slashing wing who is also a capable defender, and can make spot up threes with consistency. That's a really nice player to have, and the type of player teams are always chasing - but truth be told it's not an especially rare commodity. He's shown flashes of potential greatenst as a slasher and defender, and if he realises that potential I can see him developing in to a very nice player.
As an ABSOLUTE best case there is a chance he could develop in to a Jimmy Butler caliber player, but I don't expect that. Jimmy Butler is a pretty special case of a guy who got where he did because he had Kobe-like dedication and work ethic, and while Jaylen is certainly known for being hard working guy, jimmy Butler's level of drive and competitiveness is just on a whole other level.
On the other end of the scale it's also possible he could become a Jeff Green type player - a elite athlete with very impressive physical gifts, who was just never really capable of translating those into high level NBA skills.
I think the more likely is somewhere in the middle - a Gerald Wallace / Andre Iguodala / Trevor Ariza type player. These are guys who maybe might make one all-star game or two in their careers, or could just as easily not make any. They are the he type of player you want to have because they can difference makers on a championship team - but they aren't the type of player you build a franchise around.
TatumTatum is a special and rare talent for a few reasons.
1 - Defence
Over his first two seasons Tatum has been a CONSISTENT net positive defender. It's very rare for any rookie (let along a 19 year old) to come in to the NBA and to be a consistent net positive defender for his team over his rookie and sophomore seasons. This early success combined with Tatum's physical measurements (his height, length, reach and build are comparable to a young Paul George) indicate that Tatum may well have All-defensive team potential once he matures, learns the game a little better, and bulks up a bit.
2 - Shot Creation
Even as a rookie, Tatum showed flashes of also shown flashes of having elite shot-creation ability. He has the mid-range game, can hit the fade-away jumper, has a host of post move, is an excellent finisher around the basket in traffic, has the ball handling skills to create separation and has the length and body control to get his shot off over just about anybody. This is crucial, because the ability to create offense is often what separates a really good player from a true superstar. The special thing about a super is the ability for you to put the ball in their hands at the end of a game and and say "get me a bucket- make something happen". Tatum has that natural born ability.
3 - Shooting ability
In today's NBA the three point shot is a huge weapon, and if you want to become a star then having a deadly three point shot is a bit help in getting you there. Jayson Tatum shot 43% from three in his rookie year and 37% from three in his second year - a total of 40% 3PT shooting over his first two seasons. For a 19/20 year old kid to shoot THAT well from range against NBA defense is extremely promising, and shows he has a ton of potential as a shooter. To add to this, free throw shooting ability has always been seen as a great predictor of a players potential as a shooter - Tatum shot 83% as a rookie and just under 86% in his second year (84% for his career so far). Looking at his combined shooting from three and from the line so far, Jayson Tatum clearly has the potential to become an EXCELLENT shooter.
4. Conclusion
Now lets say all three these skills pan out, for argument's sake. Try to imagine a 6'8" - 6'9" player who the defensive ability of Paul George, the shot creating ability of a prime Carmello Anthony, and the shooting ability of Kevin Durant (who actually shot worse then Tatum early on). That's a potential MVP candidate there.
Even if Tatum only became "very good" at all three of those talents (which it seems more likely then not that he will), that's still enough to make him a perennial All-Star.
Topic: Value comparison of Jaylen and Jayson (Read 6145 times)