Author Topic: Ewing Theory and the Celtics  (Read 5931 times)

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Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« on: July 17, 2019, 05:11:45 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Have you heard Bill Simmons' Ewing theory? That teams actually can be better when their best player leaves? Especially because it gives talented players a chance to step up as they don't depend on that player anymore.

I think the Celtics are a sneaky Ewing theory candidate, but not because of Kyrie Irving. Our best and most important player last year was Al Horford.

Irving caused the drama, and just on that front, the team should be more comfortable and enjoyable.

But so much of our offense revolved around Al Horford. He's a fantastic player -- one of the top guys in the league as far as a fun teammate to play with. But let's be honest, he's a high level role player. To build so much of our system around his skillset on offense and defense, but to have so little production -- that says a lot about Horford. Both that he is a really good and smart player, but that he is also not an all-star.

Without him touching the ball several times a possession, and taking minutes (without producing rebounds) on the defensive side of the court, I wonder if it opens an opportunity for guys to take more of a role in decision-making -- guys who can score more effectively, more like superstars (ahem, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, ahem).

Just a thought. Sometimes teams are better without good players. That can be for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's because they are locker room cancer. Sometimes it's because they are depended on too much and deliver too little.

Ewing theory for the Boston Celtics and Al Horford has now been hypothesized. Let's see how the experiment comes back.

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2019, 05:15:55 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Does Ewing Theory apply when you lose your two best players?

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2019, 05:32:35 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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It's not out of the realm of possibility that they exceed last season's win total. That might more be due to the current makeup of the East than anything else, though. 

Better record?  Possibly.  Better team?  I'm not sold on that.


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Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2019, 05:40:03 PM »

Offline action781

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https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019/on-off/

When Horford was on the court, our team had a +6.1 net rating.  When Horford was off the court, our team had a +3.7 net rating.  So we were +2.4 points better per 100 possessions when he played.  If we were better without him, I think that would have shown up.

Other celtics net ratings last season:
Tatum +4.6
Theis +4.5
Baynes +3.9
Semi +3.6
Kyrie +3.3
Smart EVEN
Hayward EVEN
Jaylen -3.7
Marcus Morris -5.1
Rozier -9.4

Interestingly, our team was always a net positive with any single one of our rotation players off the court which speaks to how our team never overly relied on any one player.  The player our team fared the worst with on the bench was Tatum (+1.9).

In 2017-18, Celtics were a +7.2 with Horford in the game and a -1.0 when he was on the bench.  He was second on the team in net differential (+8.2) with, once again, Tatum #1 on the team (+8.5).  Jaylen was tied with Horford with a +8.2 that season.
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Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2019, 05:40:13 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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It's not out of the realm of possibility that they exceed last season's win total. That might more be due to the current makeup of the East than anything else, though. 

Better record?  Possibly.  Better team?  I'm not sold on that.


agree ^.  ..Kawhi leaving the East helped our cause .  Personally i still think alot of,the success  depends on Haywards having a wake up call .

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2019, 05:51:29 PM »

Offline ferguson

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As someone who has coached High School for 30 years Kemba for Kyrie is an upgrade simply because of chemistry. Chemistry is very important, the A's of the 70's were the exception not the rule.
When it comes to Horford I don't feel he will be missed much offensively because I think our ball movement will be better.  Where he will be missed is on defense, and until someone steps up and proves they can fill that role that will be the big question.

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2019, 05:53:26 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I don't know if Ewing Theory applies when you lose your top two players and then replace them with different players.

The Ewing Theory idea is that the supporting cast ends up playing better than the team with the superstar centerpiece in place.
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Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2019, 06:07:41 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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That’s not enough.  We need real improvement from Tatum and Brown.

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2019, 06:16:58 PM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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Does Ewing Theory apply when you lose your two best players?

Could be double the effect. 😀

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2019, 06:20:53 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Does Ewing Theory apply when you lose your two best players?

We replaced one guy with a perennial All-Star (whom may not be as talented, but may be the better fit) and can more appropriately expect the reemergence of Hayward to offset losing Horford. Then add in the growth of the Jays, impact rookies, and Kanter.

In short, it wouldn’t surprise me if they 2020 C’s could beat the 2019 C’s in a hypothetical matchup.
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Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2019, 06:43:22 PM »

Offline Valid

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Name me a situation where a team has ever instantly improved after losing their best player. It has never happened.

Bill Simmons is an idiot.

The Celtics' situation is a bit different, however, as they won just 49 games this past year and got knocked out of the second round in five games, and it was a direct result of egos up and down the roster.

I fully believe next year's Celtics team will be better than this past year's as far as regular-season record is concerned, but it won't be because we lost our two best players; it will be because the locker room will be much less toxic.

But will our ceiling be higher? Absolutely not. Talent is what wins in this league.

The Ewing theory has always been ridiculous. Remember when people were saying we were better without Rondo in 2013 until the playoffs rolled around and no one on the team even knew how to throw an entry pass?

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2019, 06:45:14 PM »

Offline Valid

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As someone who has coached High School for 30 years Kemba for Kyrie is an upgrade simply because of chemistry. Chemistry is very important, the A's of the 70's were the exception not the rule.
When it comes to Horford I don't feel he will be missed much offensively because I think our ball movement will be better.  Where he will be missed is on defense, and until someone steps up and proves they can fill that role that will be the big question.
I think you're underestimating just how good Al Horford is offensively. With him gone, Theis is our only big who can kind of stretch the floor and operate in the pick-and-pop. Trust me: he will be missed.

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2019, 06:45:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The Ewing theory is not based on a player leaving the team, it is based on the premise that if you best player goes down the role players step up in his absence.  We've seen that time and time again, but when that player actually leaves the team, the team pretty much is always worse.  I mean the 00 Knicks won 50 games and were in the ECF.  The next year when Ewing was in Seattle, the Knicks did manage 48 wins, but then lost in the 1st round to a team they swept in the 1st round the prior year.  Knicks were not better when Ewing wasn't on the team, though might have been better for short stretches when he was banged up (I didn't actually check that).
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Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2019, 06:47:46 PM »

Offline Valid

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The Ewing theory is not based on a player leaving the team, it is based on the premise that if you best player goes down the role players step up in his absence.  We've seen that time and time again, but when that player actually leaves the team, the team pretty much is always worse.  I mean the 00 Knicks won 50 games and were in the ECF.  The next year when Ewing was in Seattle, the Knicks did manage 48 wins, but then lost in the 1st round to a team they swept in the 1st round the prior year.  Knicks were not better when Ewing wasn't on the team, though might have been better for short stretches when he was banged up (I didn't actually check that).
It's an asinine theory even in that regard, because the theory is essentially saying that a team could improve if its best player gets hurt.

Yes, the '99 Knicks made the finals without Ewing, but what happened when they got there? They got smacked in five games by the Spurs because they had no answer for Duncan and Robinson up front. Had Ewing been healthy, that Knicks team still would have made the finals and would have certainly given the Spurs a better series.

Re: Ewing Theory and the Celtics
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2019, 07:01:46 PM »

Offline Muzzy66

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The Ewing theory is not based on a player leaving the team, it is based on the premise that if you best player goes down the role players step up in his absence.  We've seen that time and time again, but when that player actually leaves the team, the team pretty much is always worse.  I mean the 00 Knicks won 50 games and were in the ECF.  The next year when Ewing was in Seattle, the Knicks did manage 48 wins, but then lost in the 1st round to a team they swept in the 1st round the prior year.  Knicks were not better when Ewing wasn't on the team, though might have been better for short stretches when he was banged up (I didn't actually check that).

Ironically, the Celtic's W/L record in the games Kyrie missed due to injury last year directly support the Ewing theory in this case.

:D