What if Terry Rozier doesn't get a big offer in free agency?

[footey]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

I'm surprised you said that. Are you betting that he will be able to return to 2018 playoff form with Kyrie gone?

[saltlover]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

I'm surprised you said that. Are you betting that he will be able to return to 2018 playoff form with Kyrie gone?

If not that, close to it.  But if he does, $15 million is a bargain.  19 PGs made at least $12 million last year.  They include Jordan Clarkson ($12.5 million), Brandon Knight ($14.6 million), and Dennis Schroder ($15.5 million).  Sure, you’ve got some bargains like Kemba Walker ($12 million), but his deal was signed when the cap was $63 million as opposed to $109 million, so that’s not a fair comparison.  Clarkson and Schroder are the numbers to look at.  Clarkson was signed as a 6th man, Schroder as a starter with some potential but also glaring holes.  Both were signed after the big cap spike, but even then the cap was ~10% less than it will be this year.  If you think that Rozier is between Clarkson and Schroder in value, that would put him in the $14-$17 million range.  I personally prefer Rozier to Schroder, but I wouldn’t fight someone arguing the other way.  I would object to anyone preferring Clarkson.

Add to it there are a lot of teams with cap space this summer (compared to last summer when the market for Smart collapsed), and I think the $12-15 million range is reasonable if not conservative for where his salary could wind up.

[slamtheking]

Rozier would not be my number 1 option but we all know how much Danny likes him.  With Kyrie most likely leaving and if The C's can resign Horford for 20m they should have 17+ million in cap space.  If they can some how unload Yabu that goes up to 22m.  I think that should be enough space to pry away Brogdon.  If the C's got Brodgon then I'd renounce Rozier.  If not he may be plan B or C.  I just don't like Rozier as Plan A.  The C's need better shooters and guys that are willing to play D.  Rozier is a spotty shooter and does not give consistent effort on D when he has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries.  Guy likes to get his numbers.

You’ve forgotten about the Celtics draft pick holds when thinking of potential cap space.  Even if they renounced all their free agents, including Rozier and Kyrie, they’ve got about $8 million in cap holds for those picks.  Even assuming they successfully dump Yabu, they’d have only $11-12 million in cap space.  That’s not going to be anywhere enough to get a second-tier free agent — at best you’d get someone of Rozier’s quality while filling out the rest of your rotation with minimum salary players and the room exception.  I’ll take Rozier at $12-15 million, and at least two of the MLE, BAE, and Morris.

I'm with you on this except how much to pay Rozier (that and the fact I just want him gone but god help us he may be the best option for us if Kyrie leaves) unless your plan is to use Rozier's contract as salary filler in a trade to upgrade the roster that will enable us to retain Smart.  THAT, I could understand but to give him that much with the idea of keeping him for the length of the deal, I'd offer a range of 8-10 mill per year.

[Green-18]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

You're the cap expert: how is $15 million a year for Rozier a good deal?

To be worth that he has to become an above average starting point guard. And assuming that we build on and resign Brown and Tatum, we'd be capped out. That means that Tatum, Brown, Smart and Rozier is the core of our hopefully contending team for the foreseeable future.

I think $10-$12 million is realistic, but $15 million isn't as crazy as many people suggest.  I could see Danny matching something like this, especially if Horford signs a new deal and the team doesn't have cap room to bring in an All-Star caliber player.  Fans have every reason to be tired of Rozier.  At the same time, I'm not going to completely ignore his performance during the 2018 playoffs.   

I could see the Celtics moving forward with Rozier as a stopgap PG, while Danny tires to find a permanent solution at the position.  Rozier's contract will be relatively easy to move, and could ultimately become salary filler in a larger trade.

[wiley]

That would be great for the Celtics as we’ll have another slightly underpaid guy on the team....who will build his value again and be an asset one way or the other. 

[Fafnir]

I mean Clarkson/Schroeder were viewed as bad money almost immediately after they were signed and  their teams were looking to dump them.

So if they are the comparable players for Rozier, that tells you what the C's should do.

[jambr380]

I don't think I would be happy if Rozier got more than the 4 yr/$52M contract that Smart got last off-season - it just wouldn't feel right. If teams feel Ainge is going to match, regardless (and they definitely should feel that way if/when Kyrie walks), then we should be able to keep his salary to a reasonable number. Smart did everything he could to get paid last summer and, while he is obviously set for life, I think he received less than he assumed he was going to.

[Ilikesports17]

Rosier isn’t going to get more than 7 or 8 mil on the open market

He’s a career sub 40% shooter with maturity issues who doesn’t play defense.

You really wanna give a guy 10-15 mil based on one good month in 4 years wherewhere he still shot no better than 40% from the field?

Go for it. I bet he gets jack Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. on the open market and returns to Boston on the QO

[BringToughnessBack]

I could see Rozier getting a 4 year offer from the Knicks at around 15M per year and it wouldn't shock me if they stretched it to 17M as well. Expecting 60-66M 4 year from them. They lost some decent chances and are going to need to be a little more aggressive with their offers.

We could see both of our former PG's in NY area.

[bdm860]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

I'm surprised you said that. Are you betting that he will be able to return to 2018 playoff form with Kyrie gone?

If not that, close to it.  But if he does, $15 million is a bargain.  19 PGs made at least $12 million last year.  They include Jordan Clarkson ($12.5 million), Brandon Knight ($14.6 million), and Dennis Schroder ($15.5 million).  Sure, you’ve got some bargains like Kemba Walker ($12 million), but his deal was signed when the cap was $63 million as opposed to $109 million, so that’s not a fair comparison.  Clarkson and Schroder are the numbers to look at.  Clarkson was signed as a 6th man, Schroder as a starter with some potential but also glaring holes.  Both were signed after the big cap spike, but even then the cap was ~10% less than it will be this year.  If you think that Rozier is between Clarkson and Schroder in value, that would put him in the $14-$17 million range.  I personally prefer Rozier to Schroder, but I wouldn’t fight someone arguing the other way.  I would object to anyone preferring Clarkson.

Add to it there are a lot of teams with cap space this summer (compared to last summer when the market for Smart collapsed), and I think the $12-15 million range is reasonable if not conservative for where his salary could wind up.

It will be interesting to see what Rozier gets, personally I'm not sure if he'll get the offers he's looking for, I could see him signing a Julius Randle 1+1 deal to try to improve his worth and get a bigger contract next year.  There's a lot of PGs available.

A quick google search puts him at the #8 in a couple of free agent PG lists (here and here).

You have your superstars and stars (Irving, Walker, Russell).

You have your vets  (Dragic, Rubio, Rose,  Rondo, Beverely, Collinson).

You have your vet reclamation projects (Isaiah, with Rose being a successful one last year).

You have your young(er) guys (Brogdon, Rozier, Payton, Mudiay).  Brogdon has proved himself a legit, consistent starter while none of the others have (on a good team at least).  All the rest have pros/cons and huge question marks.  Mudiay is 2 years younger, better size, and can score.  Payton has shown he can be a good distributor with better size and played extremely well 2nd half of the year (with a string of 5 straight triple doubles).  Rozier has shown he can deliver as a playoff starter (most of the time). 

Plus there's also the trade market where you can land Ball or Conley.  Frank Ntilikina if you want a project.  Dennis Smith Jr is thought to be available if the Knicks can land 2 big free agents or get a big name in a trade (though probably less likely now with Durant injured and Anthony Davis in LAL).  Jeff Teague is capable of holding down the fort for a year as a salary dump. 

Or maybe a change of scenery rejuvenates Reggie Jackson (1 yr left) or Dennis Schroder (2 years left).   Might be wise to try those guys out for a year or 2 instead of committing 4-5 years to Rozier.

Then look at the teams with actual cap space (using this as a source, slightly outdated since before lottery and before AD trade):

New York Knicks $74,924,755 - chasing bigger fish, have Dennis Smith, Jr.
LA Clippers $59,661,930 - chasing bigger fish
Atlanta Hawks $39,990,046 - have Trae Young
Los Angeles Lakers $39,595,196 - chasing bigger fish
Sacramento Kings $37,218,993 - have De'Aron Fox
Dallas Mavericks $36,906,251 =
Utah Jazz $33,680,097 =
Brooklyn Nets $33,551,161 = chasing bigger fish, have Russell
Indiana Pacers $32,839,748 = going after Conley?
Chicago Bulls $22,062,197 = have Kris Dunn but can definitely upgrade him
Denver Nuggets $18,347,041 = have Murray
Phoenix Suns $15,617,932 = going after Ball?
Minnesota Timberwolves $12,649,433 = typo on list, actually projected to have negative cap space
Milwaukee Bucks $10,764,906 = have Brodgon, Bledsoe

So take out the teams with better PGs (SAC, ATL, DEN, MIL), the teams that won't be pursuing Rozier as a priority (NYK, LAC, LAL, BRK), and you're left with questionable fits (UTA, IND), and a few rebuilding teams (DAL, CHI, PHX).  Sure it only takes 1 team to offer him a big deal, and who knows how the dominoes fall at the draft or in free agency that could leave a new team in desperate need of a PG.

A lot of PGs available, and while there's a lot of teams with cap space, I don't know if many will be pursuing Rozier.  Will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets.

[saltlover]

I mean Clarkson/Schroeder were viewed as bad money almost immediately after they were signed and  their teams were looking to dump them.

So if they are the comparable players for Rozier, that tells you what the C's should do.

My point is that people think $12-15 million is too high, but look at the guys who make that.  The guys who make less than that are generally on their rookie deal, vets who signed a short deal to hit free agency this summer, or not even 6th-man types.  Looking at it a different way, if Rozier signs a deal that pays him $15 million next year, he’d be no more than the 17th highest paid PG, and maybe lower depending on a couple other free agents.  $12 million next year drops him out of the top 20.  If you think Rozier is an average-to-above average starter, and he was at least that when he actually got to start, then $12 to $15 million is definitely a conservative range. 

[ObjectivityOverBias]

Lots of teams have a lot of cap space available this coming free agency and we've seen in previous years (most notably 2016) that teams are stupid and will spend it basically on anyone who they can get, even if these players clearly aren't worth it.

However I have the impression that Rozier is on the bottom of that pool of targets. And that he's a restricted free agent always scares teams away, since they'd show up with nothing when the Celtics match the offer. So I'm wondering whether that big offer will come. Maybe Rozier ends up in a Nerlens-Noel-type-of-situation?

The choice between signing a team-friendly deal on a much lower salary than you hoped for or risk losing out on millions by signing the qualifying offer and never get you career succesfully of the ground. 

I'm not interested of bringing Rozier back on a 1-year-deal, but if we re-sign him longterm on a team-friendly deal than he becomes a future asset. Terry will have the security of being paid (he has only earned 8,7 million in his career so far).

My offer would be 32/4 (and I even believe it's kind of generous, but with a descending salary (8% each year) very interesting from an asset perpective), in millions:

19/20: $8,95
20/21: $8,28
21/22: $7,67
22/23: $7,10

If Rozier plays for the qualifying offer next season (4,29), then he'd have to sign a new multi-year-deal in 2020 at around 12 million a year to make it really worth it. Total earnings over those 4 years in that case: 40 million (8 more, but with risk).

Would anyone want the Toxic Crusader? You see what he did to ya'll lockeroom. Even on the outside looking in, I knew something was off. Kyrie was never toxic with us; even though he did not want to play with LBJ, he kept it to himself, unlike Terry is is not on his level. 

[Fafnir]

The two deals you cited were sour 16 deals, and did their part to contribute to that label.

If you think Rozier is an average-to-above average starter, and he was at least that when he actually got to start, then $12 to $15 million is definitely a conservative range.

I do think the 12 - 15 range seems to be what teams will pay for a starting level role player.

I don't think Terry belongs in that category, the body of work just isn't there. I think he'll end up on the QO.

[RodyTur10]

I mean Clarkson/Schroeder were viewed as bad money almost immediately after they were signed and  their teams were looking to dump them.

So if they are the comparable players for Rozier, that tells you what the C's should do.

My point is that people think $12-15 million is too high, but look at the guys who make that.  The guys who make less than that are generally on their rookie deal, vets who signed a short deal to hit free agency this summer, or not even 6th-man types.  Looking at it a different way, if Rozier signs a deal that pays him $15 million next year, he’d be no more than the 17th highest paid PG, and maybe lower depending on a couple other free agents.  $12 million next year drops him out of the top 20.  If you think Rozier is an average-to-above average starter, and he was at least that when he actually got to start, then $12 to $15 million is definitely a conservative range.

Yeah, in that case I see why you'd be okay with giving Rozier $15 million a year. You expect that Rozier can reach/approach the level of Teague/Bledsoe/George Hill/Conley. Maybe. To be honest, I'm kind of done with Terry and I don't expect much good from him when he stays.

Reggie Jackson seems like a blueprint for Terry Rozier's career. Although Jackson is a better playmaker and finisher, while Rozier is a better rebounder and probably better defensively. Not a terrible player, but when the Pistons tried to upgrade him for a better point guard they could find no takers. Jackson is only still in Detroit, because noone else wants him.

[celticinorlando]

Think Rozier will be in the same boat Smart was...