What if Terry Rozier doesn't get a big offer in free agency?

[RodyTur10]

Lots of teams have a lot of cap space available this coming free agency and we've seen in previous years (most notably 2016) that teams are stupid and will spend it basically on anyone who they can get, even if these players clearly aren't worth it.

However I have the impression that Rozier is on the bottom of that pool of targets. And that he's a restricted free agent always scares teams away, since they'd show up with nothing when the Celtics match the offer. So I'm wondering whether that big offer will come. Maybe Rozier ends up in a Nerlens-Noel-type-of-situation?

The choice between signing a team-friendly deal on a much lower salary than you hoped for or risk losing out on millions by signing the qualifying offer and never get you career succesfully of the ground. 

I'm not interested of bringing Rozier back on a 1-year-deal, but if we re-sign him longterm on a team-friendly deal than he becomes a future asset. Terry will have the security of being paid (he has only earned 8,7 million in his career so far).

My offer would be 32/4 (and I even believe it's kind of generous, but with a descending salary (8% each year) very interesting from an asset perpective), in millions:

19/20: $8,95
20/21: $8,28
21/22: $7,67
22/23: $7,10

If Rozier plays for the qualifying offer next season (4,29), then he'd have to sign a new multi-year-deal in 2020 at around 12 million a year to make it really worth it. Total earnings over those 4 years in that case: 40 million (8 more, but with risk).

[Fafnir]

I guess that'd be a value contract, I don't think Rozier would sign it though. The C's would have to offer more. He'd bet on himself and play out the QO if he can't get an offer sheet or extension better than that.

[apc]

I hope Rozier is not coming back.
I will take Rubio over Rozier- more true PG which i think we need.

Rozier is a 'me' guy, not a team player.

[RodyTur10]

I guess that'd be a value contract, I don't think Rozier would sign it though. The C's would have to offer more. He'd bet on himself and play out the QO if he can't get an offer sheet or extension better than that.

That's probably the case, since Rozier has an inflated perception of himself and an ego. He'd be unable to accept reality and take the guaranteed money. Unless he has a break-out year that decision could cost him a lot of money though (like Noel).

Most fans don't think it will come to this anyway and some team will offer him big money this summer. I'm just not so sure.

[timpiker]

I'd like to see Rozier back on a team friendly contract AND add a Rondo or Rubio.

[soulman]

no more than 10mil per year

[saltlover]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

[tonydelk]

Rozier would not be my number 1 option but we all know how much Danny likes him.  With Kyrie most likely leaving and if The C's can resign Horford for 20m they should have 17+ million in cap space.  If they can some how unload Yabu that goes up to 22m.  I think that should be enough space to pry away Brogdon.  If the C's got Brodgon then I'd renounce Rozier.  If not he may be plan B or C.  I just don't like Rozier as Plan A.  The C's need better shooters and guys that are willing to play D.  Rozier is a spotty shooter and does not give consistent effort on D when he has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries.  Guy likes to get his numbers.

[gouki88]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

Don't make me grimace Salty

[Chief]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

$12-$15 million is about right.  Plus, it gets the Celtics a tradable contract for the future.

[boscel33]

I hope Rozier is not coming back.
I will take Rubio over Rozier- more true PG which i think we need.

Rozier is a 'me' guy, not a team player.

I hope you don't want Kyrie back then also.  He's more of a me guy than TR for sure.

[boscel33]

Rozier would not be my number 1 option but we all know how much Danny likes him.  With Kyrie most likely leaving and if The C's can resign Horford for 20m they should have 17+ million in cap space.  If they can some how unload Yabu that goes up to 22m.  I think that should be enough space to pry away Brogdon.  If the C's got Brodgon then I'd renounce Rozier.  If not he may be plan B or C.  I just don't like Rozier as Plan A.  The C's need better shooters and guys that are willing to play D.  Rozier is a spotty shooter and does not give consistent effort on D when he has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries.  Guy likes to get his numbers.

17+ in cap space, Vucevic!

[saltlover]

Rozier would not be my number 1 option but we all know how much Danny likes him.  With Kyrie most likely leaving and if The C's can resign Horford for 20m they should have 17+ million in cap space.  If they can some how unload Yabu that goes up to 22m.  I think that should be enough space to pry away Brogdon.  If the C's got Brodgon then I'd renounce Rozier.  If not he may be plan B or C.  I just don't like Rozier as Plan A.  The C's need better shooters and guys that are willing to play D.  Rozier is a spotty shooter and does not give consistent effort on D when he has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries.  Guy likes to get his numbers.

You’ve forgotten about the Celtics draft pick holds when thinking of potential cap space.  Even if they renounced all their free agents, including Rozier and Kyrie, they’ve got about $8 million in cap holds for those picks.  Even assuming they successfully dump Yabu, they’d have only $11-12 million in cap space.  That’s not going to be anywhere enough to get a second-tier free agent — at best you’d get someone of Rozier’s quality while filling out the rest of your rotation with minimum salary players and the room exception.  I’ll take Rozier at $12-15 million, and at least two of the MLE, BAE, and Morris.

[gouki88]

Rozier would not be my number 1 option but we all know how much Danny likes him.  With Kyrie most likely leaving and if The C's can resign Horford for 20m they should have 17+ million in cap space.  If they can some how unload Yabu that goes up to 22m.  I think that should be enough space to pry away Brogdon.  If the C's got Brodgon then I'd renounce Rozier.  If not he may be plan B or C.  I just don't like Rozier as Plan A.  The C's need better shooters and guys that are willing to play D.  Rozier is a spotty shooter and does not give consistent effort on D when he has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries.  Guy likes to get his numbers.

You’ve forgotten about the Celtics draft pick holds when thinking of potential cap space.  Even if they renounced all their free agents, including Rozier and Kyrie, they’ve got about $8 million in cap holds for those picks.  Even assuming they successfully dump Yabu, they’d have only $11-12 million in cap space.  That’s not going to be anywhere enough to get a second-tier free agent — at best you’d get someone of Rozier’s quality while filling out the rest of your rotation with minimum salary players and the room exception.  I’ll take Rozier at $12-15 million, and at least two of the MLE, BAE, and Morris.

I've missed this.

[RodyTur10]

I would be shocked to see Rozier sign for anything less than $12 million per year.  I’d personally have no problems going to at least $15 million per year.  5 years, $75 million would be a good deal for both sides.

You're the cap expert: how is $15 million a year for Rozier a good deal?

To be worth that he has to become an above average starting point guard. And assuming that we build on and resign Brown and Tatum, we'd be capped out. That means that Tatum, Brown, Smart and Rozier is the core of our hopefully contending team for the foreseeable future.