So I brought all of this up in my
recent podcast, but I know nobody actually listens to that, so I'm covering it here as well.
If you check any Celtic-related forum after a loss, you'll see it flooded with frustrated fans demanding that we trade some under-performing player not meeting expectations. Right now, you can't go a couple minutes without someone saying we should dump Rozier for a 2nd rounder. Earlier this season, people were ready to attach picks just to dump Gordon Hayward. Fans were ready to give up on Jaylen Brown for pennies on the dollar.
A perfect example of how most fans react to selling high vs selling low. Prior to the draft, Kevin O'Connor goes on Bill Simmons' podcast and brings up the idea of trading Jaylen Brown (stock very high after a incredible playoff) for a high pick that can be used on Luka Doncic. Bill
reacts to the idea by saying he'd fight Kevin and the entire Ringer staff if something like that happened. The idea of moving future star Jaylen Brown was that skin-crawling for him. Flash forward a couple months and that very same Bill Simmons (now the world's biggest Doncic fan who lists Luka #5 in his trade value column and Brown #44) says he'd
like to see Boston trade Jaylen Brown to the Hawks for a Dallas pick projected #17 at the time.
That perfectly sums it up. Fans will react with outright hostility at the thought of trading a player when their stock is high. But when their stock is down?... dump him for a late 1st in a bad draft.
The thing is, Danny Ainge is an emotionless robot. He has a long track record of selling high. It's easy to remember these trades, because they are probably the ones that caused forums like this to go into full-on meltdown. Whether it's trading Isaiah Thomas after an MVP-level season, trading Avery Bradley when he looks like a borderline star, trading a #1 pick when everyone believes it's a future superstar... even lesser remembered ones like trading Ricky Davis in the midst of his career season (19.7 points on 46% shooting). Ainge don't give a crap. He sees the big picture. No better time to trade a player than when they are going well.
So that brings me to this current squad. Across the board, almost everyone is failing to live up to lofty expectations. Naturally, you want to dump the guys who are struggling.
But in the midst of all this turmoil, there's actually two guys who are wildly exceeding everyone's projections... Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris Sr.Naturally, you're going to probably get p---ed off at me even bringing up their names. It's a fair thing to consider, though.
Marcus Morris: A career 11.5ppg 43%/35%/74% shooter is currently averaging 15 points with 50%/45%/87% shooting. It's the epitome of a career year. Prior to this season, many articles were written about salary dumping him to get under the luxury tax line. He makes 5.3 mil on an expiring contract and we need to shed roughly 3 million in salary to get under the luxury line - and avoid the repeater tax down the line when we try to re-sign guys like Brown. Flash forward a couple months - he's untouchable, right?
Marcus Smart: A career 35%/28% shooter is now shooting a borderline respectable 40% from the field and 35.4% from three. This month, he's shooting 49% from the field and 48% from three. Insane. But beyond that, he's widely seen by fans as being the heart-and-soul of the team... arguably the "leader". A crucial player that couldn't possibly be moved. Folks go as far as to say that removing him would send the team into a meltdown. Despite signing a new contract, Smart is not only having a career season, but most fans see him as untouchable. He's eligible to be traded as of today's Jan 15th restriction lifting.
Quick thoughts on salary: Prior to the season, there were some who felt Smart's contract was a bit steep for a player they expected to struggle to get minutes off the bench alongside Rozier. I found the amount (11.6 mil this season) a bit curious, because combined with "expendable" Marcus Morris's 5.3 expiring (17 mil total), you could take back as much as 21 mil (17 * 125%) - that positioned us perfectly to potentially take back Jimmy Butler had he been available in mid-January. Not that it was something we were counting on, but I suspected it was an option Boston wanted to keep open. Butler and Kyrie being friends could give you some confidence in keeping Butler. Possibly a move to placate Kyrie into signing long-term. Obviously Butler is no longer on the table - and I dont' think any fans are losing sleep over missing out on him - but the fact remains you can combine those two and take back as much as 21 mil. Add a player like Rozier or Yabu, and you're looking at the possibility of taking back as much as 25 mil.
Quick thoughts on trade value: Hard to say. Individually, I would expect either to fetch a 1st rounder. I know Morris is an expiring contract, but because his bird rights carry over, I don't think it's unreasonable that you could get a late 1st given his level of play. Selling high on them would more likely be a bigger-picture trade... such as a move to avoid luxury tax, a move to consolidate some of our roster issues, or a combined deal to bring in a upgrade impact player.
Types of Trades to Consider:
- Luxury Tax Avoidance: Just like we discussed prior to the season, we could try to shed around 3 mil in salary to get under the luxury tax. If you could get a late 1st for Morris, is it something worth considering? Do we expect to sign him long-term? Similarly, if you could combine Smart + Morris to take back some combo of talent/draft picks making in the range of 13.5-14 mil, is it worth considering big picture? As a random example, in the podcast I brought up the awful idea of Philly (a team desperate for depth) calling up to offer the expiring contracts of Wilson Chandler + Amir Johnson + Miami's unprotected 2021 1st + a future unprotected Philly 1st for Smart + Morris. Obviously, I don't expect anyone to like this idea. It's "emotionless" and "big picture" on a level that even I can't stomach. But it checks the box of selling high, avoiding the luxury tax, and bringing in future assets to be used down the line to try to acquire a guy like Davis. Alt things to consider - trading to a team on the verge of making the playoffs like Brooklyn to take back expirings + picks.
- Shake-Ups Their stock is at a peak right now. Is there a shake-up trade you'd consider making? Could you get an intriguing big man prospect for one of them that makes better roster sense?
- Upgrades: I brought up two ideas in the podcast. One, was meeting the asking price for Bradley Beal (a player, young player and a couple picks). Morris + Smart + picks for Beal seems to meet that price. The other idea I brought up (prior to Marc Stein's recent tweets suggesting his availability) was the idea that you could move Smart + Morris + yabu to Memphis for Marc Gasol. Gasol is signed on for this season with a player option for next. Such a move seems plausible, but would obviously be a huge change.
Thoughts on them being untouchable: Look, I don't think we'll do anything. I just think it's something to keep in mind. It's always best to trade a player when their stock is high - and we got two guys with sky high stock right now. I know we are better off with these guys on the Celtics. That said, learning from experience, the idea that removing a guy like Smart will completely destroy the team - probably isn't true. The team will adjust. The simple act of removing Smart + Morris completely changes the dynamic. Now Brown probably slots back in as a starter. Hayward probably gets major minutes. Maybe those guys find chemistry. Maybe Rozier suddenly starts flourishing leading a less-crowded bench? Who knows. Ultimately, keep in mind currently we are playing like a middling mid-seed playoff team and big-picture, our hope is that a "5 Leaf Clover" line-up of Kyrie/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Horford will eventually take shape - I don't think we're really in a position to act like either of these guys is "untouchable". Also, the fact remains that if we manage to follow-through on our pipe dreams of acquiring Anthony Davis this Summer - the salary of Marcus Smart will almost certainly be involved in our offers - so get use to the idea of us trading him.
Last Thoughts: Right now, I expect the idea of trading Smart and/or Morris while their stock is high - to be met with significant hostility. But consider this... Imagine the possibility that a couple months from now Smart is back on the bench getting 20 minutes behind Jaylen Brown and his shooting has tanked back to typical Marcus Smart levels... meanwhile, law of averages has caught up to Marcus Morris and he's been bricking shots for weeks in a reserve role behind Gordon Hayward. At that point, would you regret not selling high when you had a chance?... kind like how Bill Simmons reacts to Jaylen Brown these days?
Curious to hear your thoughts.
TL:DR: Fans hate the idea of selling high, but I think it's worth taking a look at. We have some guys having career years who might not figure into our long-term plans.