The NBA and Winning the Championship in the Off Season

[bdm860]

I predicted a Milwaukee over Houston Finals and I'm sticking to that.  They basically are the same team that has been the 2nd best team in the World the last few seasons except for swapping Westbrook for Paul (which I feel is an upgrade).  They need Nene and Green back, but I just think this might be their year.

How do you view a MIL/PHI matchup in the ECF?

Philly has some question marks (shooting/health/fit), but I think think they'll be able to defend Giannis as well as anybody throwing up a wall with Horford/Embiid/whoever as the 3rd man.

MIL might be the better team, but I think Philly will win that matchup.

Edit - of course if Giannis has developed a good jumper (2/5 from 3 last night) then God help us all.

I think Milwaukee is better than Philadelphia and matches up well with them.  Lopez will give Embiid fits and make him work a lot defensively by dragging him all over the court.  That in turn will wear him down and make him less effective on the other end.  I don't think anyone on the Sixers can come even close to guarding Giannis.  Horford/Embiid don't have the foot speed and Harris well is Harris.  Only Kawhi-like players have any real shot of slowing Giannis down and the Sixers just don't have that player.  At the rest of the positions, I like Milwaukee's players in a Sixers matchup.  I think they have players that can deal with Simmons' size but not hamstring the rest of the defense.  Milwaukee is also very deep so they can throw lots of bodies out there.  As long as Giannis is healthy, I don't think anyone in the East is capable of containing him and thus think the Bucks will come out of the East.  I think the Bucks would struggle with the Clippers or Lakers, but would beat any other western team for the same reason I think the Bucks beat the Sixers i.e. they just aren't capable of effectively slowing Giannis down.

You haven't been paying attention.  Teams have started defending with bigs.  Giannis size, strength and length are what make him difficult to defend.  You've got to make it hard for him to get to the paint and that isn't a foot speed issue.  He was overpowering Simmons last season one game so the Sixers switched Embiid on him to slow him down.  Giannis still got his points but he talked about the challenge going up against Embiid.  Now they have Horford to use on Giannis too. 

Embiid is going to be guarding the paint.  Horford or Harris will take Lopez if he's out at the 3.  The Bucks are starting Wes Matthews a significant downgrade from Brogdon.  Bledsoe performs poorly in the playoffs.  As for their bench it isn't that good.  Hill's really the only one of import.  Ilyasova under performed in the playoffs with the Bucks just like he did with the Sixers.  Robin Lopez isn't a concern especially since the Sixers have Horford.  Korver will be a defensive sieve whenever he's on the court.

Horford can't guard Giannis.  We saw that first hand last year.  And as you said Giannis still got his against Embiid (and if Embiid is guarding Giannis he is really going to wear down).  The Sixers can't guard Giannis.  Simmons is their best shot at it, but that makes for huge mismatches elsewhere on the floor.

Horford and Embiid are that help D that Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam provided last year.

Giannis isn't going to be stopped by any one individual, but his whole game is driving to the hoop. You throw up a wall, you bring the help D, you double and triple him.  This is what Toronto did, and did effectively. Now obviously having Kawhi helps a ton, but I think Embiid/Horford will be better (or at least as good) in the role Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam played if Brett Brown tries to go with a similar strategy (and why wouldn't he, it worked).  And Simmons can try his hand as the main defender, he he was the main defender of Kawhi in that series (Butler/Harris were in Game 1, but Kawhi put up 45, so then it was Simmons in Games 2-7, not sure if Kawhi noticed).

No Kawhi, but I still think Sixers can throw up the wall and provide the help D to contain Giannis like the Raptors did here:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=L-EPx-v1XIY