Jay King Minutes Projection

[Silky]

Did I miss a press release about Langford dying or something? He’s not only absent from the OP, but literally nobody has mentioned him in this thread yet. We took him in the lottery, and we have Williams AND Edwards getting minutes over him.

That's why that pick of Ainge at #14 is so puzzling.

There's just no way Langford will get any minutes as long as the Celts have Hayward, Brown, and Smart.

Add Carsen Edwards and there will be totally ZERO minutes available for Langford.

But according to Bulpett of the Herald, Celts not done dealing.
I think Ainge will make a move involving Smart and Brown.

No chance if a deal involving both smart and brown. Honetly cannot see either being traded individually.

Langford, theis, semi, future pick lets you take back around 10 mill in a trade right there. Wannamaker is over another mill.

[Celts Fan 508]

Did I miss a press release about Langford dying or something? He’s not only absent from the OP, but literally nobody has mentioned him in this thread yet. We took him in the lottery, and we have Williams AND Edwards getting minutes over him.

As the OP, I want to point out the minute projections were from Jay King not me.

Langford was mentioned in the article as someone who could get more minutes as the season progresses or if his training camp is impressive.  I suggest reading the article, he makes good points!!

[BitterJim]

Jay King has an interesting article on the Athletic about Celtics projections and why he thinks this way.  I highly recommend the article, but I want to discuss his minutes projections:

Starters:

Walker 34 minutes
Smart 31 minutes
Tatum 34 minutes
Hayward 34 minutes
Kanter 24 minutes

Bench:
Brown 28 minutes
Edwards 10 minutes
G. Williams 14 minutes
Semi 6 minutes
Theis 24 minutes

Everyone else fighting for the remaining minutes.

I believe that is too few minutes for Brown and Kanter while too much for Theis and G Williams.  I really hope the Celtics would five minutes to Poirier or R Williams than Theis.  His reasoning is sound but this is how he sees it shaking out at the start of the season.

Over the past 3 years, there hasn't been a single Celtics' player at 34 mpg or higher, and we're supposed to have 3 next year? I find that unlikely

I'd expect about 10 minutes got to Langford, with some of that time coming from Hayward (3 minutes or so) and a couple from Semi. I'd also expect some of Theis' minutes to go to Robert Williams (5-10), although it's possible we see some Theis/Kanter or Theis/Williams lineups and the minutes come from Semi or Grant Williams

[W8ting2McHale]

Jay King has an interesting article on the Athletic about Celtics projections and why he thinks this way.  I highly recommend the article, but I want to discuss his minutes projections:

Starters:

Walker 34 minutes
Smart 31 minutes
Tatum 34 minutes
Hayward 34 minutes
Kanter 24 minutes

Bench:
Brown 28 minutes
Edwards 10 minutes
G. Williams 14 minutes
Semi 6 minutes
Theis 24 minutes

Everyone else fighting for the remaining minutes.

I believe that is too few minutes for Brown and Kanter while too much for Theis and G Williams.  I really hope the Celtics would five minutes to Poirier or R Williams than Theis.  His reasoning is sound but this is how he sees it shaking out at the start of the season.

Over the past 3 years, there hasn't been a single Celtics' player at 34 mpg or higher, and we're supposed to have 3 next year? I find that unlikely

I'd expect about 10 minutes got to Langford, with some of that time coming from Hayward (3 minutes or so) and a couple from Semi. I'd also expect some of Theis' minutes to go to Robert Williams (5-10), although it's possible we see some Theis/Kanter or Theis/Williams lineups and the minutes come from Semi or Grant Williams

Exactly. I would shave 3-4 minutes off all those starter projections and give 2-3 to Brown, 10 to Langford and Edwards depending on the game, and Williams or Poirier will get some of Theis’s time on the court. I think Theis will get some PF minutes when we play a legit PF, but he’s only a Center in case of emergency, which due to Baynes and Horford’s health was way too often last year.

[Hoopvortex]

Jay King has an interesting article on the Athletic about Celtics projections and why he thinks this way.  I highly recommend the article, but I want to discuss his minutes projections:

Starters:

Walker 34 minutes
Smart 31 minutes
Tatum 34 minutes
Hayward 34 minutes
Kanter 24 minutes

Bench:
Brown 28 minutes
Edwards 10 minutes
G. Williams 14 minutes
Semi 6 minutes
Theis 24 minutes

Everyone else fighting for the remaining minutes.

I believe that is too few minutes for Brown and Kanter while too much for Theis and G Williams.  I really hope the Celtics would five minutes to Poirier or R Williams than Theis.  His reasoning is sound but this is how he sees it shaking out at the start of the season.

Over the past 3 years, there hasn't been a single Celtics' player at 34 mpg or higher, and we're supposed to have 3 next year? I find that unlikely

I'd expect about 10 minutes got to Langford, with some of that time coming from Hayward (3 minutes or so) and a couple from Semi. I'd also expect some of Theis' minutes to go to Robert Williams (5-10), although it's possible we see some Theis/Kanter or Theis/Williams lineups and the minutes come from Semi or Grant Williams

Exactly. I would shave 3-4 minutes off all those starter projections and give 2-3 to Brown, 10 to Langford and Edwards depending on the game, and Williams or Poirier will get some of Theis’s time on the court. I think Theis will get some PF minutes when we play a legit PF, but he’s only a Center in case of emergency, which due to Baynes and Horford’s health was way too often last year.

Theis did not play with another big last season, or virtually never. In other words, he was exclusively a center last year, if you don’t mind saying it that way. That’s not likely to change this season.

[BitterJim]

Jay King has an interesting article on the Athletic about Celtics projections and why he thinks this way.  I highly recommend the article, but I want to discuss his minutes projections:

Starters:

Walker 34 minutes
Smart 31 minutes
Tatum 34 minutes
Hayward 34 minutes
Kanter 24 minutes

Bench:
Brown 28 minutes
Edwards 10 minutes
G. Williams 14 minutes
Semi 6 minutes
Theis 24 minutes

Everyone else fighting for the remaining minutes.

I believe that is too few minutes for Brown and Kanter while too much for Theis and G Williams.  I really hope the Celtics would five minutes to Poirier or R Williams than Theis.  His reasoning is sound but this is how he sees it shaking out at the start of the season.

Over the past 3 years, there hasn't been a single Celtics' player at 34 mpg or higher, and we're supposed to have 3 next year? I find that unlikely

I'd expect about 10 minutes got to Langford, with some of that time coming from Hayward (3 minutes or so) and a couple from Semi. I'd also expect some of Theis' minutes to go to Robert Williams (5-10), although it's possible we see some Theis/Kanter or Theis/Williams lineups and the minutes come from Semi or Grant Williams

Exactly. I would shave 3-4 minutes off all those starter projections and give 2-3 to Brown, 10 to Langford and Edwards depending on the game, and Williams or Poirier will get some of Theis’s time on the court. I think Theis will get some PF minutes when we play a legit PF, but he’s only a Center in case of emergency, which due to Baynes and Horford’s health was way too often last year.

I actually looked things up, and Theis only played 91 minutes in 2017-18 with another C (Baynes or Monroe), so it wasn't just the Baynes injury that caused that. It looks like Brad sees him more as a center than a PF/C.

I could still see him spending some time next to Timelord, though, if Timelord proves himself capable of guarding 4s in stretches

[Vermont Green]

Last season, our main "bigs" averaged:

Horford    29
Morris      28
Baynes     16
Theis       14
Ojeleye    10

That is 97 minutes.  Jay King is only listing 68 minutes for bigs.  I think he is extremely low for the group of Kanter, Theis, Ojeleye, RWill, GWill, and Poirier.  It is not ideal based on the talent but you are going to see more Theis, Ojeleye, and RWill than last season and more than you want to see of GWill and Poirier.

[chambers]

I'd say Hayward is most likely to come off bench- at least at start of season.
Kemba
Smart
Tatum
Brown
Kanter

with bench of
Hayward
Theis
Porier
G Williams
Semi
Wannamaker
Timelord
Edwards

filling things out.

Wouldn't be surprised to see one of Jaylen or Hayward traded for Steven Adams or some other upgrade at C..

[Fierce1]

I'd say Hayward is most likely to come off bench- at least at start of season.
Kemba
Smart
Tatum
Brown
Kanter

with bench of
Hayward
Theis
Porier
G Williams
Semi
Wannamaker
Timelord
Edwards

filling things out.

Wouldn't be surprised to see one of Jaylen or Hayward traded for Steven Adams or some other upgrade at C..

Kevin Love makes more sense.

Steven Adams can't shoot 3s.

We all know Brad wants bigs that can shoot 3s.

[Fierce1]

I think the Celts already have enough traditional bigs in Kanter, RWill, and Poirier.

What the Celts need now is someone like Horford.
A big man that can score inside, shoot from the outside, make passes, and rebound.

Kevin Love is a good fit.
The only question is are the Celts willing to take his contract.

[Alleyoopster]

So many players with unique talents on this team. Yet, no real superstar.

Brad's going to have a tough time figuring out who plays and who doesn't. This will be particularly true at the guard position. There are so many players who appear to be equally matched.
 
Below I looked at the talent each guard brings to the team and projected the number of minutes each might play.

Marcus Smart handles and passes the ball well and he's a super defender. He'll likely be starting. (25 minutes)

Kemba Walker shoots, passes and rebounds well. He'll start too. (28 - 34 minutes)


Carsen Edwards - good shooter, tough player and decent defender. He should be substituting for Kemba on the second unit. (12 - 20 minutes)

Wanamaker - often looked better than Rozier last year. He drives to the hoop well and has the height to guard taller players. He could find himself on the second unit depending on the other rookies' progress.  (12-15 minutes)

Devante Green could possibly take someone's minutes providing he makes the team.

In Summer League he proved to be a nifty player. He doesn't do anything extraordinarily well, but he was everywhere making plays. Will his game translate to the NBA is a big unknown. (Minutes )

Romeo Langford I put him on the third team and Maine based on his inexperience and lack of toughness and smarts.

He's a relative unknown. We don't know if he'll be able to shoot well or not after his surgery. Perhaps, half way through the season he'll learn to be more aggressive and alert on the court. (6-8 minutes at most - more as the season progresses)
 

Jayen Brown also plays guard. He has the height and the defensive ability to hold that position. But, with so many guards on the team, is he going to see much time there. Who knows how Brad will use him. 

Max Strus isn't projected to be with the team much. He can light it up. Maybe if he consistently shoots well, he'll get minutes in Boston.

Tremont Waters - I loved the way he plays the game. He generates a lot of energy and displays a lot of pizzazz handling the ball. And, he's scrappy as heck defensively.
 
He moved the team better than any other rookie. He'll be a part timer given his contract status.

   

[action781]

My Minutes Projection:

Kemba 34
Jaylen 30
Tatum 32
Hayward 30
Kanter 26

Edwards/Wanamaker 10 (I think it will be just one of them, IMO more likely Edwards)
Smart 30
Semi + GW 18 (sometimes split, sometimes more one of them due to matchups)
Theis 16
Poirier/Robert Williams 14 (probably only one of them, IMO more likely Poirier)

[blink]

"My Minutes Projection:

Kemba 34
Jaylen 30
Tatum 32
Hayward 30
Kanter 26

Edwards/Wanamaker 10 (I think it will be just one of them, IMO more likely Edwards)
Smart 30
Semi + GW 18 (sometimes split, sometimes more one of them due to matchups)
Theis 16
Poirier/Robert Williams 14 (probably only one of them, IMO more likely Poirier)"




This seems pretty reasonable.  IMO, it may be just a smig high on Kemba and Kanter...I would have Kemba at around 32, and Kanter around 20-22.
I think our back up bigs are going to get more minutes.  This does not excite me.

[Muzzy66]

I think brown will start and smart will be the sixth man, so I would flip their minutes. Otherwise that looks about right to me.

I hope not.

Having walker, brown, hayward, tatum and Kanter means a lot of scorers on the court at once, and only one ball to go around.

I feel that it would actually help the team's offense and especially their defense (which really needs it).

[Fierce1]

I think brown will start and smart will be the sixth man, so I would flip their minutes. Otherwise that looks about right to me.

I hope not.

Having walker, brown, hayward, tatum and Kanter means a lot of scorers on the court at once, and only one ball to go around.

I feel that it would actually help the team's offense and especially their defense (which really needs it).

The 1st round series against the Pacers proved that the Celts will be fine with Jaylen starting and Smart not available.