[Pelton] All signs point to LeBron & Co. peaking at just the right time

[Endless Paradise]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/12990237/nba-all-signs-point-cleveland-cavaliers-peaking-right

It's an Insider article so I can't share the entirety of it, but I find it to be very interesting. It statistically and analytically supports much of what my own eye test has been telling me: both the Warriors and the Cavs have been, by far, the two best teams in the playoffs, but the Cavs have arguably been slightly more impressive - or, potentially, even better than Golden State. This is largely why I'm expecting the Finals to be a lot closer than much of the blogosphere seems to believe (well, that and I just can't bet against a motivated LeBron). Basically, it touches on Cleveland's improved defense, the impact of the midseason trades, and the fact that the Cavs has been dominating their opponents in the playoffs even more so than the Warriors have their own (adjusted for the weaker East competition).

A few short excerpts:

To adjust for widely varying quality of opposition in the playoffs, I like to simply compare teams' point differentials to the average point differentials their opponents posted during the regular season. Weighted by games played in each series, Golden State's opponents posted a plus-2.6 point differential during the regular season.

The Warriors have actually beat those teams by 8.0 points per game, meaning they've been 10.6 points better per game than an average team -- slightly better than their plus-10.1 point differential during the regular season.

That's good, but Cleveland has been better. Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals. Their average opponent had a plus-2.9 differential in the regular season, and Cleveland has beaten those teams by 8.8 points per game, making the Cavaliers 11.7 points per game better than an average team.

The larger Cleveland improvement has come at the defensive end. The Cavaliers were a below-average defensive team during the regular season, ranking 20th in defensive rating, and were only slightly better than average (plus-0.3 points per 100 possessions) after Jan. 13.

In the postseason, Cleveland has the league's third-lowest defensive rating, and even adjusting for the poor offenses they've played against, the Cavaliers have allowed 5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than we'd expect based on their opponents during the regular season. (Again, the RPM model says something similar.)

Regular-season performance is still the dominant factor in predicting the outcome of the Finals, and even with the Cavaliers' playoff edge the regression I came up with last year gives the Warriors a 98 percent chance of winning the series. That overstates Golden State's edge because Cleveland has been so much better after its midseason trades.

If we instead use the 63-win pace at which the Cavaliers played after Jan. 13, the series looks much more competitive, with the regression giving the Warriors just a 56 percent chance of winning -- somewhat less than the gambling odds would indicate. If we take out the house edge, the lines at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (5-12 for Golden State, 2-1 for Cleveland) imply the Warriors are expected to win about 68 percent of the time.

[Donoghus]

So does this just mean we should expect Golden State in 6/7 instead of 5/6? 

[Endless Paradise]

I'm sticking to Cleveland in 6 or 7.

[PhoSita]

Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals.

Ah yes, a very interesting argument ... hmm.. really some compelling points here .....




Sorry, I believe it not.

[Donoghus]

I don't think anyone can convince me that CLE has endured a more difficult path in these playoffs.

NOLA > BOS
MEM > CHI
ATL > HOU (I guess)

[celticsclay]

Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals.

I believe it not.

There seems to be really flawed math used in that article if I am understanding it right. It is using point differential to say the hawks, celtics and bulls were a tougher road than the pels, grizzlies and rockets. However, wouldn't all the point differentials be flipped if the eastern conference played the majority of their games against the west (no way the hawks win 60 in the west) and the east teams played the majority of their games against the west? That seems like a really basic and severe flaw that shouldn't have gotten past the cutting room floor. that makes me question the point of the article...

[PhoSita]

I don't think anyone can convince me that CLE has endured a more difficult path in these playoffs.

NOLA > BOS
MEM > CHI
ATL > HOU (I guess)

Right.  Look at the best players the Warriors have faced versus who the Cavs have faced.

Warriors:

Davis
Gasol & Randolph
Harden & Dwight

Cavs:

Isaiah Thomas
Jimmy Butler
Paul Millsap & Al Horford


It's not really even close.

[jpotter33]

Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals.

I believe it not.

Haha same here. A team by team comparison supports this, too.
NO > Boston
Memphis > Chicago
Houston > Atlanta (at least playoffs Atlanta)

I know we beat the Pels twice, but objectively speaking they have a much more talented roster than us. Memphis and Chicago isn't really close, and I think Houston was a better team in the playoffs than Atlanta.

EDIT: Not to mention the injuries against Cavs' opponents (Gasol, Korver, Carroll, etc.) vs. basically just Conley against Golden State, iirc.

[PhoSita]

that makes me question the point of the article...

The point of the article is to claim something dubious in order to generate attention.

Pelton's gonna get a lot more clicks by trying to claim the Cavs should be favored rather than writing another article about how awesome the Warriors are and how the Cavs are the representative of an incredibly weak conference.

[PhoSita]

As for the defensive stats, it's easy to look like you've transformed into an elite defensive squad in the playoffs when none of the opponents you've faced in the first three rounds was a particularly good offensive team.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Yeah, no way Cleveland's had a harder playoff road.

As for the CLE defense, sure it's been good, but it faced a starless Boston, an offensively inept Chicago, and a starless, injury-depleted Atlanta. Facing Curry, Thompson, and Green is gonna be  a heck of a lot harder.

[Timdawgg]

As for the defensive stats, it's easy to look like you've transformed into an elite defensive squad in the playoffs when none of the opponents you've faced in the first three rounds was a particularly good offensive team.

Yup Cleveland is in for a rude awakening...Warriors in 5

[Endless Paradise]

Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals.

I believe it not.

Haha same here. A team by team comparison supports this, too.
NO > Boston
Memphis > Chicago
Houston > Atlanta (at least playoffs Atlanta)

I know we beat the Pels twice, but objectively speaking they have a much more talented roster than us. Memphis and Chicago isn't really close, and I think Houston was a better team in the playoffs than Atlanta.

EDIT: Not to mention the injuries against Cavs' opponents (Gasol, Korver, Carroll, etc.) vs. basically just Conley against Golden State, iirc.

That's an absurdly reductive summation of the injuries the Warriors' opponents faced.

1) Evans sprained his ankle in Game 1 and was largely a non-factor against the Warriors. The Pelicans' best perimeter defender (well, not including Davis) and starting point guard wasn't even starting for them in the playoffs.

2) You mentioned Conley, who didn't even miss a single game (but was most certainly not healthy), but completely neglected to mention the injury to Tony Allen, who ended up missing time.

3) The Rockets had to rely on a point guard rotation of a 37-year-old Jason Terry and 38-year-old Pablo Prigioni. Their best perimeter defender and starting point guard didn't play a single game. They also had to deal with the absence of Motiejunas, who's one of their better defensive bigs and surprisingly effective on the offensive end.

Both the Warriors and the Cavaliers have benefitted from injuries to their opponents this postseason. For whatever reason, this goes unnoticed when discussing the former, despite the fact that they've also enjoyed better health than the Cavs.

[csfansince60s]

Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals.

I believe it not.

Haha same here. A team by team comparison supports this, too.
Houston > Atlanta (at least playoffs Atlanta)

 I think Houston was a better team in the playoffs than Atlanta.

Unequivocally.

Atlanta beat the lowly Nets who stumbled into the playoffs and the Wall-less (for all intents and purposes) Wiz. Washington was missing their best player.

Houston beat the Clips.

Those two things should say it all about who was a better playoff team, nevermind the Korver injury.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Believe it or not, the Cavaliers have actually faced tougher opposition en route to the Finals.

I believe it not.

Haha same here. A team by team comparison supports this, too.
NO > Boston
Memphis > Chicago
Houston > Atlanta (at least playoffs Atlanta)

I know we beat the Pels twice, but objectively speaking they have a much more talented roster than us. Memphis and Chicago isn't really close, and I think Houston was a better team in the playoffs than Atlanta.

EDIT: Not to mention the injuries against Cavs' opponents (Gasol, Korver, Carroll, etc.) vs. basically just Conley against Golden State, iirc.

That's an absurdly reductive summation of the injuries the Warriors' opponents faced.

1) Evans sprained his ankle in Game 1 and was largely a non-factor against the Warriors. The Pelicans' best perimeter defender (well, not including Davis) and starting point guard wasn't even starting for them in the playoffs.

2) You mentioned Conley, who didn't even miss a single game (but was most certainly not healthy), but completely neglected to mention the injury to Tony Allen, who ended up missing time.

3) The Rockets had to rely on a point guard rotation of a 37-year-old Jason Terry and 38-year-old Pablo Prigioni. Their best perimeter defender and starting point guard didn't play a single game. They also had to deal with the absence of Motiejunas, who's one of their better defensive bigs and surprisingly effective on the offensive end.

Both the Warriors and the Cavaliers have benefitted from injuries to their opponents this postseason. For whatever reason, this goes unnoticed when discussing the former, despite the fact that they've also enjoyed better health than the Cavs.

Good points.

Although I'd add that Cavs injuries don't matter much as long as LeBron is healthy. Cleveland could get whittled down to LeBron, Perk, James Jones, Mike Miller, and the corpse of Shawn Marion and still stand a pretty good chance.