Sorry to clog up the blog with another trade thread but... (TOR/BOS/PHO)

[BballTim]

  Is Bosh even as good as Amare? Shouldn't we just try the original Phoenix trade if that's what we're doing? This trade is a significant downgrade of our backcourt, especially on the defensive end. Did we suddenly switch from "win now" to "lessen our chances so we can be a decent team longer"?

I like Bosh more.  Plays both ends.  Less freak injuries.


Plus, with this trade, the Celtics replace Rondo with another good PG instead of a small SG.

  I'm not a huge Calderon guy. I think his assist numbers would drop when he got here. It's better than a lot of the trade ideas but it's bad on the defensive end. It adds some talent but at the same spot our best player plays.

[paintitgreen]

I actually think this a very interesting trade proposal. A good combination of two threads that have come out recently. Comes down to three questions - 1) is Rondo enough for Phoenix to give up Amare, considering they still have Nash? 2) would Toronto trade away Calderon without getting a point guard in return? 3) would Amare sign an extension with Toronto right away? Otherwise, Toronto is in the exact same position they were in before, but have given away a 27 year old top-ten point guard for two young guys whose ceiling is okay bench contributor.

Those last two, to me are the reasons Toronto may not do it - not because Bosh is the most likely to stay of all the potential 2010 free agents. I actually think Bosh is by far the MOST likely of the big 2010 free agents to leave his current team, for a multitude of reasons. First, looking at the big 2010 free agents as Lebron, Wade, Bosh and Amare - Toronto is in the worst competitive position. So Bosh has the least reason to stay on his team. Second, Miami and Cleveland both currently have their teams structured such that they can resign Lebron and Wade, respectively, AND add another max player (i.e., Bosh). Toronto can't offer Bosh that same luxury. Third, and it's sad because Toronto seems to have a passionate fan base, but Toronto is the least desirable place to play. It is a MUCH bigger (and better) city than Cleveland but it's in Canada. There's a reason, beyond competitiveness, McGrady and Carter, the two biggest stars in Raptor history, wanted to leave. Toronto just doesn't get the media attention of the other cities, which makes it an undesirable spot for free agents, even their own.

I think Bosh is gone after this season. Staying there, I would say, is his fourth option  at best and he'll only stay if the other options fill their spots with other players. My guess is that his order of preference would be: 1/2. Cleveland and Miami. 3. New York. 4/5/6. New Jersey, San Antonio, Toronto. His top choice would be to pair up with Lebron or Wade. Now, that could change. Maybe Cleveland gives up some of its cap space to get a second option for Lebron now to go for a title this season. Then Cleveland would be out. Maybe Miami goes after Amare instead of Bosh, and doesn't have the room to get Bosh. That would eliminate those two choices. But in that case, wouldn't he rather go to New York, and be the star of the team in the biggest market in the NBA and coached by the guy who can increase your stats by 10% just by style of play than remain in Canada where he'll probably toil away in obscurity. Of course, if Lebron goes to NY, then they might not have the money to get Bosh. And Cleveland, though it would have the cap space, would no longer be a desirable landing spot. So the only way Bosh stays, I think, is if Lebron goes to New York and Amare goes to Miami. And even then, Bosh may go to New Jersey instead or even take a little less money to go a team like San Antonio (he's a Texas guy, SA only has Parker and Duncan guaranteed past next season, with only 32 million in salary guaranteed for 2010-11).

I just think there's little chance Bosh stays in Toronto, and that's why I'll be shocked if Bosh doesn't get traded this season. If Cleveland could give up enough, and maybe taking on some longterm contracts for expiring contracts and some possible good young pieces like Hickson and West will do it, I am certain Bosh would go to the Cavs this offseason. Alternatively, if Miami decides they'd rather have Bosh than Amare, I could see that trade happening this season, and they may be able to either a) keep Beasley out of it because they and Toronto both know Bosh is gone after this season or b) get Calderon as well.

Sidenote: Imagine Beasley, Cook, and Chalmers, and Dorell Wright and Jermaine O'Neal's expiring contracts, and a first rounder, for Bosh, Calderon, Kapono and Banks. Toronto saves tons of money, and basically gives up Calderon and Bosh, whom they're losing anyway, for Beasley, Cook, Chalmers and a first. They have cap room next summer to take a shot at Amare and try to draw Nash up to Canada for the end of his career. Otherwise they still have Beasley and Bargnani to build around. Miami has a starting five this season of Calderon-Wade-Jones-Bosh-Blount? They have Haslem and Kapono off the bench, and can try to use Haslem's expiring deal to acquire a serviceable starting center and use their exception money on a backup point and backup big man. Moving forward, they have a Wade-Bosh-Calderon trio to build around with the 3 position set - Jones for defense, Kapono for offense - and just need a burly defensive center to go alongside their All Star young power forward and need, like everybody else, to build a bench. Who says no to that deal?