Who Would You Trade Tatum for Right Now?

[gouki88]

No one, I have grown attached as a fan and he is developing.  I think Luka because he has been a pro so long is developed and I don't think Giannis can improve except getting a jumper.

I don't really get this line of thinking. Luka literally just turned 21 and is a walking 29/9/9 guy. He's also made significant jumps in every category from his first to second year. What has his previous experience got to do with potential?

[smokeablount]

Freak, Kawhi, Doncic. No one else. I don't trust Durant's health long-term.

To me, the tough question is Jokic. When you take a guy like AD, the offense has to go to AD. With Jokic, the offense goes through him. Dude can make 18 footers all day, and he may be the best passer in the NBA. Incredible offensive talent, but he'd be a liability the way we play D.

Lebron is too old, Embiid isn't going to all of the sudden not get injured, and guys like Lillard are a big defensive liability.

Ainge was wise to hold onto Tatum. IMO, he's going to be our best player since Bird.

It looks right now like another one to pile on the list of wrong takes/ predictions by me. One of these times I’ll post the whole ridiculous list so I can be banned for a month. Ha.
But I said something to the effect of Tatum is Carmelo- lite. He’ll never be Pierce level. He’s not instinctive like a Pierce or say Kevin McHale ( different position of course) where he could react to his opponents body instinctively.
I still don’t see this with Tatum anywhere close to a Pierce level and he’s still going nuts so I’m thrilled to be wrong. He’s looking amazing.

Maybe in that one way, but overall Tatum has now surpassed all the traditional reasonable comps we've had for him.  I did a bbref player comparison with Tatum's partial age 21 3rd season, Carmelo's age 21 3rd season, PG13's age 22 3rd season, and Pierce's age 22 2nd season. 

If you project Tatum's output through 58 games to maintain through the end of the year, he'd lead all those guys in VORP, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, and have the lowest TOs, highest TS%, EFG%, 3PT%, FT%, Block % and REB%, which is essentially tied.  He has outgrown these comps to PG13, PP and Carmelo.

I'm just not sure who he's graduated to in terms of comps.  He's not good enough for KD and he doesn't play like Lebron or Luka (Luka is also younger).  But I'm open to suggestions of similar players who are better even than first ballot HOF guys like Pierce, George and Carmelo.  Anyone got any ideas?

http://bkref.com/tiny/BEIBL

Ah, here are the "lies" you're spreading with the misuse of statistics (there's nothing wrong with statistics itself lol, it's how people use it). You forgot to take factors such as pace and situation of the league into account when you were comparing the non WS/VORP/BPM box stats of Pierce/PG/Melo to Tatum's (although to be fair George's 3rd season was never comparable to Tatum's in the box score), Melo and Pierce are still relatively close to Tatum if you adjust their box stats.

Tatum: 24.6 points per 75 possessions, +0.3% TS, -3.2% TO, 3 assists per 75 possessions
Pierce: 25.8 points per 75 possessions, +4.5% TS, -1,6% TO, 3.15 assists per 75 possessions
George: 18.5 points per 75 possessions, -0.4% TS, +1.5% TO, 4.425 assists per 75 possessions
Carmelo: 27.7 points per 75 possessions, +2.7% TS, -3.3% TO, 2.85 assists per 75 possessions

Note: asissts are pretty bad at measuring a player's ability to create opportunities for his teammates, but I can't find the stats that better capture this ability, eg. box creation.

I do think that his ceiling has outgrown these All-NBA comps though, Pierce/George were a full year older than Tatum at the same age while Melo was a sieve at defence. I'd like to think of his ceiling as the wing version of a more balanced Karl Malone (worse offensively, better defensively, monster at +/- but not a transcendent force) if this hot streak is actually sustainable.

Thanks for the context, we agree on the main point about eclipsing the comps.  I'm not sure I fully see the Karl Malone comp but at least it's something new to work with.  I don't have any better suggestions.

[smokeablount]

Freak, Kawhi, Doncic. No one else. I don't trust Durant's health long-term.

To me, the tough question is Jokic. When you take a guy like AD, the offense has to go to AD. With Jokic, the offense goes through him. Dude can make 18 footers all day, and he may be the best passer in the NBA. Incredible offensive talent, but he'd be a liability the way we play D.

Lebron is too old, Embiid isn't going to all of the sudden not get injured, and guys like Lillard are a big defensive liability.

Ainge was wise to hold onto Tatum. IMO, he's going to be our best player since Bird.

  It looks right now like another one to pile on the list of wrong takes/ predictions by me. One of these times I’ll post the whole ridiculous list so I can be banned for a month. Ha.
  But I said something to the effect of Tatum is Carmelo- lite. He’ll never be Pierce level. He’s not instinctive like a Pierce or say Kevin McHale ( different position of course) where he could react to his opponents body instinctively.
  I still don’t see this with Tatum anywhere close to a Pierce level and he’s still going nuts so I’m thrilled to be wrong. He’s looking amazing.

Maybe in that one way, but overall Tatum has now surpassed all the traditional reasonable comps we've had for him.  I did a bbref player comparison with Tatum's partial age 21 3rd season, Carmelo's age 21 3rd season, PG13's age 22 3rd season, and Pierce's age 22 2nd season. 

If you project Tatum's output through 58 games to maintain through the end of the year, he'd lead all those guys in VORP, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, and have the lowest TOs, highest TS%, EFG%, 3PT%, FT%, Block % and REB%, which is essentially tied.  He has outgrown these comps to PG13, PP and Carmelo.

I'm just not sure who he's graduated to in terms of comps.  He's not good enough for KD and he doesn't play like Lebron or Luka (Luka is also younger).  But I'm open to suggestions of similar players who are better even than first ball HOF guys like Pierce, George and Carmelo.  Anyone got any ideas?

http://bkref.com/tiny/BEIBL

I still think it’s Carmelo or KD lite.  Tatum doesn’t look to be the all around playmaker type and those two are the closest in terms of high points and low assists.  Kobe, as selfish as people want to call him was relatively high assists.

And I wouldn’t use the idea that Tatum has surpassed then.  One can’t simply assume some linear ascension and we don’t the know.  Carmelo peak could still be higher.

If you're saying Tatum can't be compared to some guys because the assists aren't there then Carmelo can't be a comp because Tatum is a top defender and Carmelo was bad.  So I guess it's just KD-lite then.

Also, Tatum is fine for where he is with passing as reflected by assists at age 21.  In Kobe's 3rd year (at guard where more assists are expected) he averaged 3.6 per 36 mins vs Tatum's 3.  Not much difference.

He also has Kobe beat in every single main impact metric on bbref like VORP, WS, BPM, etc.

Kobe vs Tatum in year 3 comps: http://bkref.com/tiny/J1Fzq

Edit: I also didn't say Tatum surpasses all those guys currently, but that his ceiling is higher.

[fairweatherfan]

I've been thinking of Tatum as being a Paul George type, maybe slightly better or worse but somewhere in that vicinity. The kind of guy that can make 2nd or 3rd team all-league in a normal year and 1st team and some MVP heat in a career season. Can score a ton and play great D but never gets the eye-popping rebound or assist stats of the transcendent guys.

Which is amazing. But isn't a LeBron/Durant/Giannis caliber guy.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I've been thinking of Tatum as being a Paul George type, maybe slightly better or worse but somewhere in that vicinity. The kind of guy that can make 2nd or 3rd team all-league in a normal year and 1st team and some MVP heat in a career season. Can score a ton and play great D but never gets the eye-popping rebound or assist stats of the transcendent guys.

Which is amazing. But isn't a LeBron/Durant/Giannis caliber guy.

You could argue that Jayson Tatum's offensive season this year is better than any Paul George has played except his season last year. He really isn't that far off from George's season last year offensively.

George has always had a problem with consistency shooting. He goes through stretches where his jumpshot gets a hitch. On top of that, George has always struggled consistently getting to the free throw line. He also has always had problems with turnovers, especially given the fact that his passing really isn't that good.

Tatum's shot is pretty consistent. That's the reason why his shooting is already at George's level and will continue to rise. Tatum also doesn't turn the ball over as much as George and is already getting to the free throw line at a similar rate to George.

There's good read to think that Tatum at his best offensively will be closer to Kevin Durant than Paul George as a primary shot creator/scorer. Probably not at the same level as Durant, but better than George.

[Somebody]

Freak, Kawhi, Doncic. No one else. I don't trust Durant's health long-term.

To me, the tough question is Jokic. When you take a guy like AD, the offense has to go to AD. With Jokic, the offense goes through him. Dude can make 18 footers all day, and he may be the best passer in the NBA. Incredible offensive talent, but he'd be a liability the way we play D.

Lebron is too old, Embiid isn't going to all of the sudden not get injured, and guys like Lillard are a big defensive liability.

Ainge was wise to hold onto Tatum. IMO, he's going to be our best player since Bird.

It looks right now like another one to pile on the list of wrong takes/ predictions by me. One of these times I’ll post the whole ridiculous list so I can be banned for a month. Ha.
But I said something to the effect of Tatum is Carmelo- lite. He’ll never be Pierce level. He’s not instinctive like a Pierce or say Kevin McHale ( different position of course) where he could react to his opponents body instinctively.
I still don’t see this with Tatum anywhere close to a Pierce level and he’s still going nuts so I’m thrilled to be wrong. He’s looking amazing.

Maybe in that one way, but overall Tatum has now surpassed all the traditional reasonable comps we've had for him.  I did a bbref player comparison with Tatum's partial age 21 3rd season, Carmelo's age 21 3rd season, PG13's age 22 3rd season, and Pierce's age 22 2nd season. 

If you project Tatum's output through 58 games to maintain through the end of the year, he'd lead all those guys in VORP, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, and have the lowest TOs, highest TS%, EFG%, 3PT%, FT%, Block % and REB%, which is essentially tied.  He has outgrown these comps to PG13, PP and Carmelo.

I'm just not sure who he's graduated to in terms of comps.  He's not good enough for KD and he doesn't play like Lebron or Luka (Luka is also younger).  But I'm open to suggestions of similar players who are better even than first ballot HOF guys like Pierce, George and Carmelo.  Anyone got any ideas?

http://bkref.com/tiny/BEIBL

Ah, here are the "lies" you're spreading with the misuse of statistics (there's nothing wrong with statistics itself lol, it's how people use it). You forgot to take factors such as pace and situation of the league into account when you were comparing the non WS/VORP/BPM box stats of Pierce/PG/Melo to Tatum's (although to be fair George's 3rd season was never comparable to Tatum's in the box score), Melo and Pierce are still relatively close to Tatum if you adjust their box stats.

Tatum: 24.6 points per 75 possessions, +0.3% TS, -3.2% TO, 3 assists per 75 possessions
Pierce: 25.8 points per 75 possessions, +4.5% TS, -1,6% TO, 3.15 assists per 75 possessions
George: 18.5 points per 75 possessions, -0.4% TS, +1.5% TO, 4.425 assists per 75 possessions
Carmelo: 27.7 points per 75 possessions, +2.7% TS, -3.3% TO, 2.85 assists per 75 possessions

Note: asissts are pretty bad at measuring a player's ability to create opportunities for his teammates, but I can't find the stats that better capture this ability, eg. box creation.

I do think that his ceiling has outgrown these All-NBA comps though, Pierce/George were a full year older than Tatum at the same age while Melo was a sieve at defence. I'd like to think of his ceiling as the wing version of a more balanced Karl Malone (worse offensively, better defensively, monster at +/- but not a transcendent force) if this hot streak is actually sustainable.

Thanks for the context, we agree on the main point about eclipsing the comps.  I'm not sure I fully see the Karl Malone comp but at least it's something new to work with.  I don't have any better suggestions.

It's just a box score comparison on offence: volume scoring on high efficiency, low TO% and low creation rates with the occasional high leverage pass to offset that weakness a bit.

[Jvalin]

Freak, Kawhi, Doncic. No one else. I don't trust Durant's health long-term.

To me, the tough question is Jokic. When you take a guy like AD, the offense has to go to AD. With Jokic, the offense goes through him. Dude can make 18 footers all day, and he may be the best passer in the NBA. Incredible offensive talent, but he'd be a liability the way we play D.

Lebron is too old, Embiid isn't going to all of the sudden not get injured, and guys like Lillard are a big defensive liability.

Ainge was wise to hold onto Tatum. IMO, he's going to be our best player since Bird.

  It looks right now like another one to pile on the list of wrong takes/ predictions by me. One of these times I’ll post the whole ridiculous list so I can be banned for a month. Ha.
  But I said something to the effect of Tatum is Carmelo- lite. He’ll never be Pierce level. He’s not instinctive like a Pierce or say Kevin McHale ( different position of course) where he could react to his opponents body instinctively.
  I still don’t see this with Tatum anywhere close to a Pierce level and he’s still going nuts so I’m thrilled to be wrong. He’s looking amazing.

Maybe in that one way, but overall Tatum has now surpassed all the traditional reasonable comps we've had for him.  I did a bbref player comparison with Tatum's partial age 21 3rd season, Carmelo's age 21 3rd season, PG13's age 22 3rd season, and Pierce's age 22 2nd season. 

If you project Tatum's output through 58 games to maintain through the end of the year, he'd lead all those guys in VORP, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, and have the lowest TOs, highest TS%, EFG%, 3PT%, FT%, Block % and REB%, which is essentially tied.  He has outgrown these comps to PG13, PP and Carmelo.

I'm just not sure who he's graduated to in terms of comps.  He's not good enough for KD and he doesn't play like Lebron or Luka (Luka is also younger).  But I'm open to suggestions of similar players who are better even than first ball HOF guys like Pierce, George and Carmelo.  Anyone got any ideas?

http://bkref.com/tiny/BEIBL

Bill Simmons compared Tatum to T-Mac.

Personally speaking, I don't see it. I'm sticking with the Carmelo comparison (due to lack of better alternatives). Obviously, though, Tatum is a better defender than Melo.

[fairweatherfan]

I've been thinking of Tatum as being a Paul George type, maybe slightly better or worse but somewhere in that vicinity. The kind of guy that can make 2nd or 3rd team all-league in a normal year and 1st team and some MVP heat in a career season. Can score a ton and play great D but never gets the eye-popping rebound or assist stats of the transcendent guys.

Which is amazing. But isn't a LeBron/Durant/Giannis caliber guy.

You could argue that Jayson Tatum's offensive season this year is better than any Paul George has played except his season last year. He really isn't that far off from George's season last year offensively.

George has always had a problem with consistency shooting. He goes through stretches where his jumpshot gets a hitch. On top of that, George has always struggled consistently getting to the free throw line. He also has always had problems with turnovers, especially given the fact that his passing really isn't that good.

Tatum's shot is pretty consistent. That's the reason why his shooting is already at George's level and will continue to rise. Tatum also doesn't turn the ball over as much as George and is already getting to the free throw line at a similar rate to George.

There's good read to think that Tatum at his best offensively will be closer to Kevin Durant than Paul George as a primary shot creator/scorer. Probably not at the same level as Durant, but better than George.

Yeah his trajectory is above George's, but this leap is relatively new - he's had what one bad game since it started? - and his numbers are confounded with the spike in scoring league-wide. He is already a better shooter, which is big.

I just don't see him quite approaching that Durant level of high-efficiency 30+ a game routine 1st team MVP megastar. Durant has had a FG% over 50% and TS over 63, at high volume with a lot of 3s, for SEVEN STRAIGHT YEARS!  Tatum needs to show me a bit more before I believe he can even do that once. Like, Tatum's past insane month would be about an average, slightly above average KD month. To me, the George comparison is more grounded unless this new level of play is permanent. It's more likely it's not.

Still, this is all great. The fact we can even compare him to a guy like Durant and it's not totally insane is amazing, and a long ways from trying to imagineer Jordan Mickey into an All-Star center or whatever. Good times.

[droopdog7]

Freak, Kawhi, Doncic. No one else. I don't trust Durant's health long-term.

To me, the tough question is Jokic. When you take a guy like AD, the offense has to go to AD. With Jokic, the offense goes through him. Dude can make 18 footers all day, and he may be the best passer in the NBA. Incredible offensive talent, but he'd be a liability the way we play D.

Lebron is too old, Embiid isn't going to all of the sudden not get injured, and guys like Lillard are a big defensive liability.

Ainge was wise to hold onto Tatum. IMO, he's going to be our best player since Bird.

  It looks right now like another one to pile on the list of wrong takes/ predictions by me. One of these times I’ll post the whole ridiculous list so I can be banned for a month. Ha.
  But I said something to the effect of Tatum is Carmelo- lite. He’ll never be Pierce level. He’s not instinctive like a Pierce or say Kevin McHale ( different position of course) where he could react to his opponents body instinctively.
  I still don’t see this with Tatum anywhere close to a Pierce level and he’s still going nuts so I’m thrilled to be wrong. He’s looking amazing.

Maybe in that one way, but overall Tatum has now surpassed all the traditional reasonable comps we've had for him.  I did a bbref player comparison with Tatum's partial age 21 3rd season, Carmelo's age 21 3rd season, PG13's age 22 3rd season, and Pierce's age 22 2nd season. 

If you project Tatum's output through 58 games to maintain through the end of the year, he'd lead all those guys in VORP, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, and have the lowest TOs, highest TS%, EFG%, 3PT%, FT%, Block % and REB%, which is essentially tied.  He has outgrown these comps to PG13, PP and Carmelo.

I'm just not sure who he's graduated to in terms of comps.  He's not good enough for KD and he doesn't play like Lebron or Luka (Luka is also younger).  But I'm open to suggestions of similar players who are better even than first ball HOF guys like Pierce, George and Carmelo.  Anyone got any ideas?

http://bkref.com/tiny/BEIBL

I still think it’s Carmelo or KD lite.  Tatum doesn’t look to be the all around playmaker type and those two are the closest in terms of high points and low assists.  Kobe, as selfish as people want to call him was relatively high assists.

And I wouldn’t use the idea that Tatum has surpassed then.  One can’t simply assume some linear ascension and we don’t the know.  Carmelo peak could still be higher.

If you're saying Tatum can't be compared to some guys because the assists aren't there then Carmelo can't be a comp because Tatum is a top defender and Carmelo was bad.  So I guess it's just KD-lite then.

Also, Tatum is fine for where he is with passing as reflected by assists at age 21.  In Kobe's 3rd year (at guard where more assists are expected) he averaged 3.6 per 36 mins vs Tatum's 3.  Not much difference.

He also has Kobe beat in every single main impact metric on bbref like VORP, WS, BPM, etc.

Kobe vs Tatum in year 3 comps: http://bkref.com/tiny/J1Fzq

Edit: I also didn't say Tatum surpasses all those guys currently, but that his ceiling is higher.

Note that Kobe was nearly a year and a half younger than Tatum at that point.  I think true age is more important than year in the nba at that stage.   

And yes, I was thinking only offense.  So Carmelo with better defense is also a decent comp.  Or, KD lite.  And my argument is that Tatum doesn’t necessarily have a higher ceiling than KD or Kobe, but we shall see.

[smokeablount]

Freak, Kawhi, Doncic. No one else. I don't trust Durant's health long-term.

To me, the tough question is Jokic. When you take a guy like AD, the offense has to go to AD. With Jokic, the offense goes through him. Dude can make 18 footers all day, and he may be the best passer in the NBA. Incredible offensive talent, but he'd be a liability the way we play D.

Lebron is too old, Embiid isn't going to all of the sudden not get injured, and guys like Lillard are a big defensive liability.

Ainge was wise to hold onto Tatum. IMO, he's going to be our best player since Bird.

  It looks right now like another one to pile on the list of wrong takes/ predictions by me. One of these times I’ll post the whole ridiculous list so I can be banned for a month. Ha.
  But I said something to the effect of Tatum is Carmelo- lite. He’ll never be Pierce level. He’s not instinctive like a Pierce or say Kevin McHale ( different position of course) where he could react to his opponents body instinctively.
  I still don’t see this with Tatum anywhere close to a Pierce level and he’s still going nuts so I’m thrilled to be wrong. He’s looking amazing.

Maybe in that one way, but overall Tatum has now surpassed all the traditional reasonable comps we've had for him.  I did a bbref player comparison with Tatum's partial age 21 3rd season, Carmelo's age 21 3rd season, PG13's age 22 3rd season, and Pierce's age 22 2nd season. 

If you project Tatum's output through 58 games to maintain through the end of the year, he'd lead all those guys in VORP, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, and have the lowest TOs, highest TS%, EFG%, 3PT%, FT%, Block % and REB%, which is essentially tied.  He has outgrown these comps to PG13, PP and Carmelo.

I'm just not sure who he's graduated to in terms of comps.  He's not good enough for KD and he doesn't play like Lebron or Luka (Luka is also younger).  But I'm open to suggestions of similar players who are better even than first ball HOF guys like Pierce, George and Carmelo.  Anyone got any ideas?

http://bkref.com/tiny/BEIBL

I still think it’s Carmelo or KD lite.  Tatum doesn’t look to be the all around playmaker type and those two are the closest in terms of high points and low assists.  Kobe, as selfish as people want to call him was relatively high assists.

And I wouldn’t use the idea that Tatum has surpassed then.  One can’t simply assume some linear ascension and we don’t the know.  Carmelo peak could still be higher.

If you're saying Tatum can't be compared to some guys because the assists aren't there then Carmelo can't be a comp because Tatum is a top defender and Carmelo was bad.  So I guess it's just KD-lite then.

Also, Tatum is fine for where he is with passing as reflected by assists at age 21.  In Kobe's 3rd year (at guard where more assists are expected) he averaged 3.6 per 36 mins vs Tatum's 3.  Not much difference.

He also has Kobe beat in every single main impact metric on bbref like VORP, WS, BPM, etc.

Kobe vs Tatum in year 3 comps: http://bkref.com/tiny/J1Fzq

Edit: I also didn't say Tatum surpasses all those guys currently, but that his ceiling is higher.

Note that Kobe was nearly a year and a half younger than Tatum at that point.  I think true age is more important than year in the nba at that stage.   

And yes, I was thinking only offense.  So Carmelo with better defense is also a decent comp.  Or, KD lite.  And my argument is that Tatum doesn’t necessarily have a higher ceiling than KD or Kobe, but we shall see.

No, he doesn't have a higher ceiling than Durant or Kobe I don't think, but since his ceiling surpassed that crop of very good players, we're trying to find a new measuring stick.

Kobe was a better passer than Tatum in his year 4 age 21 season, Tatum a better rebounder, 3 point shooter and higher TS% and otherwise similar box metrics, but Kobe wins the impact metrics battle. 

Same age as Tatum but another year under his belt.  I'd say Durant is out of reach but if he keeps trajecting up in the next year, he could be chasing Kobe instead of Paul Pierce or Carmelo. 

Player comp to Kobe in year 4 here: http://bkref.com/tiny/uhxPy

[nickagneta]

You want to know why there is no one that is a good comp for Tatum? Because the All-Time great he most would have been compared to died in 1986 after being selected by the Boston Celtics.

[86MaxwellSmart]

You want to know why there is no one that is a good comp for Tatum? Because the All-Time great he most would have been compared to died in 1986 after being selected by the Boston Celtics.

Correct.

[gouki88]

You want to know why there is no one that is a good comp for Tatum? Because the All-Time great he most would have been compared to died in 1986 after being selected by the Boston Celtics.

Dang, good call right here. TP.

[Ogaju]

You want to know why there is no one that is a good comp for Tatum? Because the All-Time great he most would have been compared to died in 1986 after being selected by the Boston Celtics.

Dang, good call right here. TP.

Didnt know much about Len Bias' game. I thought he was more of a slasher and dunker. Did he have an outside game?

[BASS_THUMPER]

rondo

*sippin*