2015 Mock because it's never too early right

[Quetzalcoatl]

Yeah, San Antonio has played twice as many Western Conference opponents as the Clippers, so I think once their schedules swing the other way, the Spurs will come out on top in the standings.  I don't see Dallas or Houston falling behind them, either.  Phoenix or OKC *could* pass the Clippers, 6 games back is a big hole to come back from, but it's doable.

Toronto, Washington and Atlanta should all stay ahead, since they play the East a lot.  I think Chicago will actually win more as the season goes for the same reason, so even though they're a game back right now, they'll overtake them by season's end.  I don't see Milwaukee or Cleveland passing them, though.

So basically, I think the Clippers' pick will be 19.5th overall, with a very small chance of it falling to 14th.  There is really no chance of them drafting 12th.

Let's say they fall to 14th (first spot out of the playoffs) and we give that a 10% chance.  They then have a 1% chance of winning the lottery in that spot.  I am not sure exactly how to calculate that, but I'd say our odds look like:

40% - 20th Pick
35% - 19th Pick
10% - 21st Pick
9.99% - 14th Pick
5% - 17th, 18th or 22nd
0.01% - 1st, 2nd or 3rd

[SHAQATTACK]

Let's pray for good health for CP3

 

[PickNRoll]

Yeah, San Antonio has played twice as many Western Conference opponents as the Clippers, so I think once their schedules swing the other way, the Spurs will come out on top in the standings.  I don't see Dallas or Houston falling behind them, either.  Phoenix or OKC *could* pass the Clippers, 6 games back is a big hole to come back from, but it's doable.

Toronto, Washington and Atlanta should all stay ahead, since they play the East a lot.  I think Chicago will actually win more as the season goes for the same reason, so even though they're a game back right now, they'll overtake them by season's end.  I don't see Milwaukee or Cleveland passing them, though.

So basically, I think the Clippers' pick will be 19.5th overall, with a very small chance of it falling to 14th.  There is really no chance of them drafting 12th.

Let's say they fall to 14th (first spot out of the playoffs) and we give that a 10% chance.  They then have a 1% chance of winning the lottery in that spot.  I am not sure exactly how to calculate that, but I'd say our odds look like:

40% - 20th Pick
35% - 19th Pick
10% - 21st Pick
9.99% - 14th Pick
5% - 17th, 18th or 22nd
0.01% - 1st, 2nd or 3rd

0.1 x 0.01 = 0.001

1 in a thousand chance we win the lottery via the Clippers pick.    I'd say it's much less than that because I think it's less than 10% that they slip to 14.  But what a story it would be!

[jonaslopes]

Yeah, San Antonio has played twice as many Western Conference opponents as the Clippers, so I think once their schedules swing the other way, the Spurs will come out on top in the standings.  I don't see Dallas or Houston falling behind them, either.  Phoenix or OKC *could* pass the Clippers, 6 games back is a big hole to come back from, but it's doable.

Toronto, Washington and Atlanta should all stay ahead, since they play the East a lot.  I think Chicago will actually win more as the season goes for the same reason, so even though they're a game back right now, they'll overtake them by season's end.  I don't see Milwaukee or Cleveland passing them, though.

So basically, I think the Clippers' pick will be 19.5th overall, with a very small chance of it falling to 14th.  There is really no chance of them drafting 12th.

Let's say they fall to 14th (first spot out of the playoffs) and we give that a 10% chance.  They then have a 1% chance of winning the lottery in that spot.  I am not sure exactly how to calculate that, but I'd say our odds look like:

40% - 20th Pick
35% - 19th Pick
10% - 21st Pick
9.99% - 14th Pick
5% - 17th, 18th or 22nd
0.01% - 1st, 2nd or 3rd

0.1 x 0.01 = 0.001

1 in a thousand chance we win the lottery via the Clippers pick.    I'd say it's much less than that because I think it's less than 10% that they slip to 14.  But what a story it would be!

Like Cleveland last year, right?

[PickNRoll]

Young Sabonis isn't expected to declare for the draft until 2016, where draftexpress.com has him late in the first round.

Gonzaga at Pepperdine tonight at 10:30ET.  Gonzaga is now 16-1 with the loss coming to Arizona in OT.  I'll watch tonight and see if I stay on the Sabonis bandwagon.  17 points and 10 rebounds per 36 on 70% shooting is pretty good.

[TwinTower14]

First time to really sit down and watch Stanley Johnson, pretty impressive. Leading Arizona in rebounding and very impressive in the open floor.

[CFAN38]

First time to really sit down and watch Stanley Johnson, pretty impressive. Leading Arizona in rebounding and very impressive in the open floor.

Agree at his size he should be an instant contributor in NBA. Same size as Bass at SF but with 6'11 wingspan rather then Bass's 7'1. Almost identical measurement to Melo but Johnson is a muscular 245lbs compared to Melo pre draft weight of 233. He really is the Marcus Smart of SFs.

[jonaslopes]

First time to really sit down and watch Stanley Johnson, pretty impressive. Leading Arizona in rebounding and very impressive in the open floor.

Agree at his size he should be an instant contributor in NBA. Same size as Bass at SF but with 6'11 wingspan rather then Bass's 7'1. Almost identical measurement to Melo but Johnson is a muscular 245lbs compared to Melo pre draft weight of 233. He really is the Marcus Smart of SFs.

And he is a good shooter. Very, very nice prospect.

[GzUP617]

First time to really sit down and watch Stanley Johnson, pretty impressive. Leading Arizona in rebounding and very impressive in the open floor.

Agree at his size he should be an instant contributor in NBA. Same size as Bass at SF but with 6'11 wingspan rather then Bass's 7'1. Almost identical measurement to Melo but Johnson is a muscular 245lbs compared to Melo pre draft weight of 233. He really is the Marcus Smart of SFs.

And he is a good shooter. Very, very nice prospect.

He's also got that killer instinct / winning mentality.

[PickNRoll]

Young Sabonis isn't expected to declare for the draft until 2016, where draftexpress.com has him late in the first round.

Gonzaga at Pepperdine tonight at 10:30ET.  Gonzaga is now 16-1 with the loss coming to Arizona in OT.  I'll watch tonight and see if I stay on the Sabonis bandwagon.  17 points and 10 rebounds per 36 on 70% shooting is pretty good.

18 points on 9-9 shooting with 12 rebounds.  I remain on the bandwagon.

[The One]

First time to really sit down and watch Stanley Johnson, pretty impressive. Leading Arizona in rebounding and very impressive in the open floor.

Agree at his size he should be an instant contributor in NBA. Same size as Bass at SF but with 6'11 wingspan rather then Bass's 7'1. Almost identical measurement to Melo but Johnson is a muscular 245lbs compared to Melo pre draft weight of 233. He really is the Marcus Smart of SFs.

And he is a good shooter. Very, very nice prospect.

He's also got that killer instinct / winning mentality.

Is he a less athletic Jabari Parker?

[TwinTower14]

First time to really sit down and watch Stanley Johnson, pretty impressive. Leading Arizona in rebounding and very impressive in the open floor.

Agree at his size he should be an instant contributor in NBA. Same size as Bass at SF but with 6'11 wingspan rather then Bass's 7'1. Almost identical measurement to Melo but Johnson is a muscular 245lbs compared to Melo pre draft weight of 233. He really is the Marcus Smart of SFs.

And he is a good shooter. Very, very nice prospect.

He's also got that killer instinct / winning mentality.

Is he a less athletic Jabari Parker?

Just from clips and the game I saw last night, I would say he is at least as athletic as Parker.  His body is completely different though, I think Parker is kind of soft body type, Johnson is a physical specimen, he is a legit 6'7 240 of muscle...

[Mr October]

This draft looks to be shaping up a lot like last year.

About 3 guys with superstar potential, and expected all star talent:

Okafor
Mudiay
Towns

Then a stack of about 4-5 elite role play starters, with potential to crack an all star team.

Hezonja
Johnson
Winslow
Russell
Porzingis

And who knows who else will emerge. Wherever the Celtics land they are going to get someone nice.

[CFAN38]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/full-2015-nba-mock-draft-11815/

Looks like a good mock, NBA insider has a good group of writers who seems really in touch with NBA personnel.

This mocks has the Cs landing WCS @ #5, Hollis-Jefferson @ #23, Osman @ #33, Holmes @ #35 and Mitrovic @ #56

I like the first round. Both players project as elite defenders and athletes at their positions. I do wonder if DA would go with two players who are so limited offensively. The second round picks with the exception of Holmes I know little about. I do think Holmes will be a solid bench player in the pros.

My criticism of this mock would be that Jerian Grant is to low at #39 (I think he goes low 20s). i also think Alexander and Harrell should be swapped with Harrel going 16 and Alexander 20.

 

[TwinTower14]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/full-2015-nba-mock-draft-11815/

Looks like a good mock, NBA insider has a good group of writers who seems really in touch with NBA personnel.

This mocks has the Cs landing WCS @ #5, Hollis-Jefferson @ #23, Osman @ #33, Holmes @ #35 and Mitrovic @ #56

I like the first round. Both players project as elite defenders and athletes at their positions. I do wonder if DA would go with two players who are so limited offensively. The second round picks with the exception of Holmes I know little about. I do think Holmes will be a solid bench player in the pros.

My criticism of this mock would be that Jerian Grant is to low at #39 (I think he goes low 20s). i also think Alexander and Harrell should be swapped with Harrel going 16 and Alexander 20.

Man, Stanley Johnson would be really had to pass up at 5 but I would be ok with WCS if that's the way it fell...