I think they're both still longshots. They might hit - longshots sometimes hit! - but for now I'm not too optimistic.
Isn't Madar still just a rotation player - BBall reference has him averaging 7 pts, 2 assists in the Adriatic League. Players who've stuck in the NBA from that league, I think, had a better showing. And even some stars from that league haven't made it in the NBA. Ante Zizic had some monster games in the Adriatic. He's still young; maybe if we're lucky his career arc looks like Wanamaker's or a little better?
Begarin has an NBA body for sure, but very limited BB experience and it's not clear how well he'll be able to develop his skills or feel for the game. He gets by in Europe with his (significant) advantage in athletic ability.
Happy to hear more optimistic takes, but I'd like to know what evidence supports them.
When looking at stats for either (since actual games are difficult to watch), here are the pieces of advice I would give:
1) Look at their national league vs. EuroCup/EuroLeague stats separately. Eurocup tends to be better competition (the better teams from each of the national leagues, as opposed to the widely varying talent within a single national league). So that means see how Madar is performing in Eurocup (which is a step below Euroleague), and see how much the performance dips when playing against the better competition. Stats that hold steady are less likely to take a hit should he arrive in the NBA. Stats that get worse are more likely to fall.
2) Look at stats either as per-minute (translated to per 36 for easier NBA comparisons) or per 100 possessions. Euro games are 8 minutes shorter, so necessarily per game stats are going to be less. Further, I've noticed in the past that most Euro teams tend to play a ton of guys between 18-22 minutes. I don't know why this is, but it's really common to see almost no one above 25 mpg, and a lot of guys playing half the game. If Madar is playing 18-22 minutes, this isn't necessarily an indictment of his ability. It's just what happens, but it means his per game numbers will take a hit. Same with Begarin.
3) Look for player improvement. Bpth guys are still young, so comparing to the prior season's numbers will tell you what kind of jumps they're still making with their games. With Madar I would mostly look for shooting, because that was something that jumped last year and I would want to see if that was a fluke or sustainable. Shooting is also important with Begarin, but I'd want to see other numbers jump as well, as he's stayed on the same team but has moved up a level, and you want to see the athleticism show up in the stats .
Anyway, I haven't really looked at their stats in a bit, and with Covid as much of a thing in Europe as it is here, I'd want to see full-season numbers because small samples plus Covid creates weirdness. I also like postseason numbers, because that's when European coaches will show you who they think the best players are by going away from the 50% timeshares. For example, I'd want Madar to get 25-28 minutes a game in the postseason. But just my personal tips for putting some context around Euro stats.
Topic: Those other guys (Juhann and Yam) (Read 6358 times)