Would anyone disagree with the premise that Robert Williams will be a top 10 center if he can stay on the court?
Starting-caliber Center? For sure. Top 10? Not so much. Assuming Timelord stays healthy going forward, I still don't think he''ll become better than any of these guys are right now.
1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. AD
4. KAT
5. Bam
6. Gobert
7. Wood
8. Vucevic
9. Sabonis
10. Porzingis
Granted, some of them are playing plenty of their minutes at PF, but imo they are at their best when playing at Center. I also think Giannis and Simmons would be at their best at Center, but that's another story.
Plenty of other names are worthy of consideration as well. For instance, vets like Brook Lopez, Capela, Valanciunas, Nurkic, Myles Turner or young Centers like Ayton and Jarrett Allen. Don't think Timelord will ever become as good as BroLo is right now. Remember game 5 against the Hawks? BroLo can create his own shot, plus he can consistently shoot the 3. Timelord will never reach that level as a player.
Generally speaking, I'm low on drop bigs unless they are offensive juggernauts (for instance, Jokic, Embiid, KAT). Brad was always using Timelord in a drop scheme. Problem is, Tatum, Brown and Smart are at their best in a switch-heavy defensive scheme. I'm curious to see how Udoka will use him this season. Personally speaking, I don't think he has the lateral quickness to switch ball screens on the perimeter.
Obviously, Timelord is a terrific rim protector. That said, he has a long way to go as a PnR defender. He allowed 1.39 PPP when defending the PnR last season which ranked in the 10th percentile. Likewise, he allowed 1.21 PPP during the 2019/20 season which ranked in the 20th percentile. Defending the PnR is a #1 priority in today's NBA. If your starting Center struggles in PnR defense, that's a massive problem in my book. With all due respect, imo Timelord is overrated on this board.
You haven’t taken into account what I think are his strongest attributes. He has the potential to be an excellent high-post center. Solid screener, very good passer, elite roll threat. Add to that his very good rebounding percentages and you have a player with the potential to really supercharge this offense.
His defense is a work in progress. But his block numbers and steal percentages are very high because he is long and very active. He has extremely long arms, which give him a standing reach well above average for an NBA center - an inch higher than Ayton, for example. It’s disruptive. If he continues to learn where to position himself and keeps cutting down on challenging shots when he has no chance to block them, he will be in line with the top 5-10 defensive centers in the league - certainly ahead of players like Wood, Sabonas, Vucevic, and the like.
When it comes to defense, the important thing is to stay in front of your opponent. Timelord doesn't have the lateral quickness to consistently stay in front of his opponents on the perimeter, hence he drops back and protects the rim. This is a major issue in my book, especially since the C's are built around 2 switchable (s)wings in Tatum and Brown. Ideally, we'd rather have a starting Center who can switch ball screens on the perimeter. Let's say a guy like Theis, only better. Prime Horford would have been an amazing fit on our team. Easier said than done obviously.
His defense is a work in progress.
Theoretically, his defense is his strong point. If you think it's a work in progress, then where should we start about his offense? Sure, he's a willing passer, but that's partly because he's a very limited ball handler. He cannot put the ball on the floor to save his life. Of course he'd defer to his teammates. He has no 3pt range. He scores the vast majority of his points via dunks and putbacks. He's a very good roll man (he ranks in the 74th percentile). He's nothing special as a low post scorer (he ranks in the 46th percentile). All in all, he's a limited offensive player.
.
I think we see his calling card differently. To me, the way he changes the offense is a big deal. We are trying to run actions off high pick and rolls. When RW is out on the high post, he’s a challenge for opposing defenses. He’s good at screen and handoff (not all centers are!) and his ability to finish a lob is elite, not just good. It gives him a lot of gravity even without an established jumper (tho he’s started to flash a 15-20 footer). His ORR% was close to 15% - really good for a guy who isn’t collecting any of his own misses (cough, cough, Enes Kanter, who gets 3 boards when he misses his first two shots). The on-off numbers and eye test both bear it out. The team’s shooting percentage and PPP go up when RWIII is on the court.
On defense, he does need to get better at positioning. It’s reasonable to predict he won’t, or won’t be able to stay in front of his man, but I remain optimistic. And I think his steals and blocks - which often trigger fast real buckets on the other end - matter a lot. If he cleans up his positioning, paying him basically MLE money is a very good deal (he’s clearly better than Theis, already) and if he develops nuts a little it’s a really good deal. The only real risk I see is health.