What is Robert Williams as a projected player? There's no doubt health is a concern, but what does he provide when he is on the court.
1. Absolutely elite rim runner. Top 5 in the NBA.
2. Elite scoring efficiency on low usage. 72% TS was one of the best in the league.
3. High end court vision for a big. Averaged 3.5 assists per 36. In his high end 20 game stretch last year, it was over 4 assists per 36.
4. Excellent rebounder. 13 rebounders per 36. When he's on the court, he gets a lot of boards.
5. Team offensive rating is better with Williams on the court. Williams offensive rating was better than Walker, Brown, Tatum, and Smart last year.
The above cannot be argued with. When he's on the court, he's highly effective AS AN OFFENSIVE PLAYER.
I haven't even begun to discuss the area of the court where he projects to be most dynamic, which is defense. Defense is harder to quantify with stats. If you are a stats guy, consider the following:
1. Williams averaged 4.9 steals + blocks per 36 last year, while lowering his fouls per 36 by almost 1 foul. He is very, very disruptive as a defensive player.
2. His length and quick jumps offer something very few big men in the NBA have -- the ability to play back off of perimeter scorers while still being able to block/contest their jumpshots.
There is no doubt he has limitations as well.
1. He is not a good individual scorer. He doesn't have go to moves. He doesn't counters. You can't throw him the ball on the block and get reliable good shots. I don't think the Cs want them from him anyway, and I do think he could improve. This is akin to saying, " Yeah, your Left Guard might be good at blocking, but he's not very good at throwing a back shoulder go-route." He's not a post player and at this point he doesn't stretch the floor for you.
2. He still get's lost on defense a fair bit. This is fairly noticeable. He did a bit better last year, but he gives up easy buckets. Now, in fairness to him, his length and disruptiveness forces teams to go through multiple set options many possessions, and I think the disruptiveness is well worth the couple of possessions each game he falls asleep, especially if you think his fundamentals will continue to improve.
3. He gets beat off the dribble a fair bit by perimeter scorers. People have said this demonstrates his slow-footedness and poor lateral speed. I don't agree. I think this issue is similar to the issue from number 2. He falls asleep. He keeps his center of gravity high. He gets lulled to sleep expecting a pull-up. I don't think this is a physical issue. I think this is a mental/fundamental issue, and again, I think it's something that can be improved. And again, his level of disruptiveness still makes it worth it, because it more than makes up for the few plays a game when he might get beat by a perimeter player. After all, you kind of expect that to happen to a big men a few times again.
4. Finally, of course his injuries are a concern. Much has been said and doesn't need to be said about that.
If he didn't have these issues, he'd be a max player, right? If he was iron-man healthy, never got lost on defense, never got beat by perimeter offensive players, could create his own shots, and had all his other strengths, he'd be Anthony Davis.
If he can get to 50 games this regular season and is healthy for the playoffs at the level of production from his last 36 games last year (including playoffs 10-8-3-2-1), he's worth that contract. If he also ups his minutes to 30 minutes a game at that per minute production, he will be in talks for the all-defensive teams (projected at 14-11-4-3-1.5). If he can also continue to grow in his defensive awareness, he'll be a contender for the defensive MVP.
It's a lot of "ifs," but this is an absolutely reasonable bet on a player that has been very dynamic, is well-loved by his teammates, and by all accounts is very teachable. He's way more worth that money than Richaun Holmes at 55 million.
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