Timelord signs 4 year $54M extension

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Would anyone disagree with the premise that Robert Williams will be a top 10 center if he can stay on the court?

Starting-caliber Center? For sure. Top 10? Not so much. Assuming Timelord stays healthy going forward, I still don't think he''ll become better than any of these guys are right now.

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. AD
4. KAT
5. Bam
6. Gobert
7. Wood
8. Vucevic
9. Sabonis
10. Porzingis

Granted, some of them are playing plenty of their minutes at PF, but imo they are at their best when playing at Center. I also think Giannis and Simmons would be at their best at Center, but that's another story.

Plenty of other names are worthy of consideration as well. For instance, vets like Brook Lopez, Capela, Valanciunas, Nurkic, Myles Turner or young Centers like Ayton and Jarrett Allen. Don't think Timelord will ever become as good as BroLo is right now. Remember game 5 against the Hawks? BroLo can create his own shot, plus he can consistently shoot the 3. Timelord will never reach that level as a player.

Generally speaking, I'm low on drop bigs unless they are offensive juggernauts (for instance, Jokic, Embiid, KAT). Brad was always using Timelord in a drop scheme. Problem is, Tatum, Brown and Smart are at their best in a switch-heavy defensive scheme. I'm curious to see how Udoka will use him this season. Personally speaking, I don't think he has the lateral quickness to switch ball screens on the perimeter.

Obviously, Timelord is a terrific rim protector. That said, he has a long way to go as a PnR defender. He allowed 1.39 PPP when defending the PnR last season which ranked in the 10th percentile. Likewise, he allowed 1.21 PPP during the 2019/20 season which ranked in the 20th percentile. Defending the PnR is a #1 priority in today's NBA. If your starting Center struggles in PnR defense, that's a massive problem in my book. With all due respect, imo Timelord is overrated on this board.

I’d take healthy Williams over healthy Christian Wood today, never mind any additional improvement that comes later.  Yes, Wood can shoot threes better, but he can’t do anything else better.  For instance, despite his bench role and limited health, Williams had more total assists, blocks, and steals than Wood, never mind the rate stats that he completely outclasses Wood with.

There’s a couple other guys I feel it is very likely TL passes as well, but Wood is so overrated to be included.

With all due respect, this is borderline ridiculous. Timelord is nowhere near the player Wood is. He'll never reach Wood's level either, simply because he's a very limited ball handler and shot creator. Unlike Timelord, Wood can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot. He has 3pt range. He can play D on the perimeter. He's a terrific PnR defender. He's an elite roller (even better than Timelord). What are we talking about here? They aren't even in the same conversation. Wood is an all-star-caliber player. Timelord is a rim runner, hence a role player.

I think we need more than half a season of near All-Star play on the worst team in the league before Wood can actually claim "All-Star calibre".

Maybe so, Woods' last season was consistent his per 36 for the previous few years. The biggest difference for him was getting the minutes.

All star players have to affect winning. So far, he’s only proven to be an empty stats guy. 21-10-2-1-1 guys on 20 win teams are like 15-8-2-1-1 guys on playoff teams. The most recent example of this was John Collins, who went from a 21-10-2-1-2 guy on a bad team to a 17-7-2-1-1 guy on a playoff team. Still good, but not an all star.

And Christian Wood has not demonstrated the ability to play with teammates in a way that makes them and the team better.

And he’s about to turn 26 when Timelord is 23.

[Roy H.]

The most recent example of this was John Collins, who went from a 21-10-2-1-2 guy on a bad team to a 17-7-2-1-1 guy on a playoff team. Still good, but not an all star.

In Collins’ case, the change in stats was primarily due to pace.  The Hawks went from the 5th fastest pace to 23rd overall.  Collins’ scoring per possession has been almost identical the past three seasons.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The most recent example of this was John Collins, who went from a 21-10-2-1-2 guy on a bad team to a 17-7-2-1-1 guy on a playoff team. Still good, but not an all star.

In Collins’ case, the change in stats was primarily due to pace.  The Hawks went from the 5th fastest pace to 23rd overall.  Collins’ scoring per possession has been almost identical the past three seasons.

How about Monte Ellis? Tony Wroten? Kyle Kuzma? Andrew Wiggins? Brandon Knight? Jahlil Okafor? Rudy Gay? D'Angelo Russell? David Lee? Nick Young? Michael Carter-Williams? Tyreke Evans?

That was only from the last 10 years. Undoubtedly, anyone reading this post would think "I liked that guy and thought he was decent." I have a few on this list I like as well. But all of them have a similar trait -- they put up big stats on losing teams, but couldn't put up similar stats on winning teams.

Players like Devin Booker were like this, but were able to take the leap (more due to Paul or his own development?). Players like Lavine and Sexton are approaching a key year where we will see if they can be high-producing, winning basketball player. Players like Beal and Kat are a step above as talents, but struggle to help their team win.

My point was more general than specific about Collins. I could argue about pacing, winning basketball, and defense, but it's kinda' pointless. My main point is to say that Christian Wood is clearly a talent, but in the two seasons he had success he played for two teams that were overtly tanking. Someone has to score on tanking teams (Anyone remember Jordon Crawford and Marshon Brooks?). There's a long list of big stats seasons by players who could never contribute to winning basketball. Acting like Wood has arrived as an all-star, or even a top 10 center in the NBA is flawed. If I had a playoff team, Wood would probably not be a top 10 center that I would want.

Also, does anyone realize that Rob Williams played more games than Christian Wood last year, due to injury? Also, character issues have to count for something in the conversation.

I just think Celtic fans have a bad taste in their mouth about last season, and have an overly negative view about the team because of it (and an overly positive view about every other team's players).

[Jvalin]

Would anyone disagree with the premise that Robert Williams will be a top 10 center if he can stay on the court?

Starting-caliber Center? For sure. Top 10? Not so much. Assuming Timelord stays healthy going forward, I still don't think he''ll become better than any of these guys are right now.

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. AD
4. KAT
5. Bam
6. Gobert
7. Wood
8. Vucevic
9. Sabonis
10. Porzingis

Granted, some of them are playing plenty of their minutes at PF, but imo they are at their best when playing at Center. I also think Giannis and Simmons would be at their best at Center, but that's another story.

Plenty of other names are worthy of consideration as well. For instance, vets like Brook Lopez, Capela, Valanciunas, Nurkic, Myles Turner or young Centers like Ayton and Jarrett Allen. Don't think Timelord will ever become as good as BroLo is right now. Remember game 5 against the Hawks? BroLo can create his own shot, plus he can consistently shoot the 3. Timelord will never reach that level as a player.

Generally speaking, I'm low on drop bigs unless they are offensive juggernauts (for instance, Jokic, Embiid, KAT). Brad was always using Timelord in a drop scheme. Problem is, Tatum, Brown and Smart are at their best in a switch-heavy defensive scheme. I'm curious to see how Udoka will use him this season. Personally speaking, I don't think he has the lateral quickness to switch ball screens on the perimeter.

Obviously, Timelord is a terrific rim protector. That said, he has a long way to go as a PnR defender. He allowed 1.39 PPP when defending the PnR last season which ranked in the 10th percentile. Likewise, he allowed 1.21 PPP during the 2019/20 season which ranked in the 20th percentile. Defending the PnR is a #1 priority in today's NBA. If your starting Center struggles in PnR defense, that's a massive problem in my book. With all due respect, imo Timelord is overrated on this board.

I’d take healthy Williams over healthy Christian Wood today, never mind any additional improvement that comes later.  Yes, Wood can shoot threes better, but he can’t do anything else better.  For instance, despite his bench role and limited health, Williams had more total assists, blocks, and steals than Wood, never mind the rate stats that he completely outclasses Wood with.

There’s a couple other guys I feel it is very likely TL passes as well, but Wood is so overrated to be included.

With all due respect, this is borderline ridiculous. Timelord is nowhere near the player Wood is. He'll never reach Wood's level either, simply because he's a very limited ball handler and shot creator. Unlike Timelord, Wood can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot. He has 3pt range. He can play D on the perimeter. He's a terrific PnR defender. He's an elite roller (even better than Timelord). What are we talking about here? They aren't even in the same conversation. Wood is an all-star-caliber player. Timelord is a rim runner, hence a role player.

I think we need more than half a season of near All-Star play on the worst team in the league before Wood can actually claim "All-Star calibre".

Feel free to take as much time as you want. After all, people were doubting him in Detroit as well. Personally speaking, I'm already pretty confident he's an all-star-caliber player. If he stays healthy, there's no doubt in my mind he'll be one of the best big men in the NBA during the upcoming season. Certainly way better than Timelord.

@DefenseWinsChamps
Please stop comparing players based on raw box score stats. This means literally nothing. For instance, Bosh and Love saw their numbers drop when they joined LeBron. Does this mean they weren't all-star-caliber players at the time?

All that matters is what each player brings to the table: What they can do on the floor and what they cannot do. Wood is a versatile, mobile big. I already expanded on this in my previous post. His skills are transferable no matter which team he plays for. Fwiw, he played 8 games alongside Harden at the start of last season. Talent-wise, the Rockets had a decent roster at the time. Wood was thriving playing second/third fiddle to an elite PnR ball handler like Harden. He was averaging 22.6 points and 9.5 rebs per game on 52.9% from the floor.

[tenn_smoothie]

I like Williams a lot when he is healthy - but that is the problem.
He has not had a single season without multiple injuries - what makes Stevens think that will change ?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Feel free to take as much time as you want. After all, people were doubting him in Detroit as well. Personally speaking, I'm already pretty confident he's an all-star-caliber player. If he stays healthy, there's no doubt in my mind he'll be one of the best big men in the NBA during the upcoming season. Certainly way better than Timelord.

@DefenseWinsChamps
Please stop comparing players based on raw box score stats. This means literally nothing. For instance, Bosh and Love saw their numbers drop when they joined LeBron. Does this mean they weren't all-star-caliber players at the time?

All that matters is what each player brings to the table: What they can do on the floor and what they cannot do. Wood is a versatile, mobile big. I already expanded on this in my previous post. His skills are transferable no matter which team he plays for. Fwiw, he played 8 games alongside Harden at the start of last season. Talent-wise, the Rockets had a decent roster at the time. Wood was thriving playing second/third fiddle to an elite PnR ball handler like Harden. He was averaging 22.6 points and 9.5 rebs per game on 52.9% from the floor.

I’m definitely not comparing based on raw box scores. If that’s what you got from my posts above, I guess I didn’t communicate clearly or you didn’t understand.

Anyway, I kinda got into the weeds a bit in this thread, which I hate doing. I still think Robert Williams was a great signing and that he’s a player that has top 10 center upside. The potential version of him that we started to see at the end of last year is a fringe all star/all defensive nba player.

[Jvalin]

Feel free to take as much time as you want. After all, people were doubting him in Detroit as well. Personally speaking, I'm already pretty confident he's an all-star-caliber player. If he stays healthy, there's no doubt in my mind he'll be one of the best big men in the NBA during the upcoming season. Certainly way better than Timelord.

@DefenseWinsChamps
Please stop comparing players based on raw box score stats. This means literally nothing. For instance, Bosh and Love saw their numbers drop when they joined LeBron. Does this mean they weren't all-star-caliber players at the time?

All that matters is what each player brings to the table: What they can do on the floor and what they cannot do. Wood is a versatile, mobile big. I already expanded on this in my previous post. His skills are transferable no matter which team he plays for. Fwiw, he played 8 games alongside Harden at the start of last season. Talent-wise, the Rockets had a decent roster at the time. Wood was thriving playing second/third fiddle to an elite PnR ball handler like Harden. He was averaging 22.6 points and 9.5 rebs per game on 52.9% from the floor.

I’m definitely not comparing based on raw box scores. If that’s what you got from my posts above, I guess I didn’t communicate clearly or you didn’t understand.

21-10-2-1-1 guys on 20 win teams are like 15-8-2-1-1 guys on playoff teams. The most recent example of this was John Collins, who went from a 21-10-2-1-2 guy on a bad team to a 17-7-2-1-1 guy on a playoff team. Still good, but not an all star.

[Vermont Green]

Is this really a debate about whether RWilliams or Christian Wood is currently better?  Christian Wood can score, he can shoot the 3 (about 38% over the last 100 games or so).  Christian Wood should be talked about in comparison to John Collins, not Robert Williams.

There is an argument that Woods is doing it on bad teams whereas Williams is doing it on a good team.  If you switched the players, I can't see Robert Williams suddenly making 3s and putting up 20 pts.  More points than the 8 points he got last season maybe but not 20 pts.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Is this really a debate about whether RWilliams or Christian Wood is currently better?  Christian Wood can score, he can shoot the 3 (about 38% over the last 100 games or so).  Christian Wood should be talked about in comparison to John Collins, not Robert Williams.

There is an argument that Woods is doing it on bad teams whereas Williams is doing it on a good team.  If you switched the players, I can't see Robert Williams suddenly making 3s and putting up 20 pts.  More points than the 8 points he got last season maybe but not 20 pts.

I wasn’t. I’m just trying to nuance the debate a bit.

[Moranis]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

[Celtics2021]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

[Moranis]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started. 

[gouki88]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

We're 12-4 with Rob starting. 60 odd win pace is pretty nice

[Celtics2021]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

[Vermont Green]

Every single year, Boston has been worse with Williams on the floor then when he is in the game.  Obviously some of that is who is and is not playing with, but that is a bit concerning given how good his per minute stats.  Houston was significantly worse with Wood on the bench as was Detroit his last year there.  If you want to talk about impact, there aren't many gauges better than the scoreboard.

Right, but Houston was one of the worst teams in history last year.  Sure, they were a heck of a lot worse with him off than on, but they were not good with him on the court either.  The Celtics outscored opponents with TL playing, just by a slightly less margin than they did with him sitting.

On-off splits are helpful, but like every statistic there will always be noise, and when a team’s backup centers include Danuel House, who is typically a 6’6” wing that’s spent as much time at the 2 as the 5 in his career, you’re going to see some really wonky numbers.

Yes, Boston was +0.3 with RW on the floor but they were +0.9 with him on the bench (per 100 possessions).  Obviously with RW coming off the bench as much as he did, I'm not sure how much stock you can put it in in this instance, but it is still what the numbers were.  And the numbers were better in the games he started as he was +45 in the 13 games he started.

They were also +10.2 with him on the court in the playoffs, and his on-off was +29.2.  Prior year (in triple the minutes) weren’t shabby either, +6.4, and 1.7 better with him on than off.

Last year Williams bested Wood in PER, WS/48, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, total win shares (obviously), offensive BPM, defensive BPM, total BPM (again obviously), and VORP.  Some of those are rates, but things like Win Shares and VORP are counting stats, so it says something that TL won them despite Wood playing 50% more minutes.  A lot of those stats weren’t close.  So yes, Wood looks better in on/off, but that just says that the relative quality of center on the Rockets was far worse compared to him than the relative quality of center on the Celtics, which makes sense given that Theis and Thompson are competent NBA bigs and the Celtics were trying to win games.

All the advanced stats are interesting, including the +/- type stats.  I do look at these and consider these but always in the context of what I see on the court.  With Robert Williams, I see a less polished version of Marcus Camby.  Camby was about a 10/10 career guy, who was a little better than that in some individual seasons.  He was never a star but did contribute to winning basketball in direct and indirect ways.  Camby was no offensive dynamo but even he had a little more than what Williams has now.

That is what I think Williams is, and that is OK.  He needs to add something to his scoring game, a baby hook, a mid range, something beyond just dunks.  The dunks make his TS% look really good but he needs to give the other teams something more to have to think about.  Without that, he is really just a fringe NBA starter.  With that, he would be a solid NBA starter.