The Celtics' Luxury Tax Dilemma

[Moranis]

GSW may have done it, but dont forget they did it while constructing a new building they want to lure fans to AND during/after a series of finals runs. The celtics have never gone even 15+ million into the tax and we know they care because they dumped theis this year to avoid the tax.

exactly.

and even though you can argue the Bay Area is not actually a "bigger" market than Boston / New England, there's so much more money there.  And it is a much larger market if you take into account the greater Bay area (basically most of Northern California).

except it isn't.  The Boston metropolitan area has 4.87 million people while the San Fran/Oakland MSA has 4.73 million people.  If you want to add in San Jose/Santa Clara that is 1.99 million, but then you should probably add in places like Providence/Warwick and its 1.62 million.  This notion that the San Francisco area is massively bigger than Boston just isn't borne in reality.  And if you go sport by sport Boston's teams are all valued more than the Bay Area teams except for the Warriors eclipsing the Celtics (though a lot of that is because they are winning and just opened a new arena - see Cleveland's valuation with Lebron and without Lebron).  The Patriots and Red Sox are worth significantly more than the 49ers and Giants or A's.  And the Bruins basically double the Sharks in valuation. 

[Moranis]

There's no way they're paying top dollar to bring this group back

How do you fix it?  Just letting Fournier walk isn't good enough.  So what do you do?

[PhoSita]

There's no way they're paying top dollar to bring this group back

How do you fix it?  Just letting Fournier walk isn't good enough.  So what do you do?

I think I've been pretty clear that I don't see a good solution and that is why I'm down on the team.


My preference would be find a team to take Kemba that doesn't require a bunch of other assets included and doesn't insist on sending back a bunch of salary.

I see that as fairly implausible, so instead I expect Danny to shop Smart and Tristan Thompson, using Timelord / Nesmith / the Celts 2021 1st round pick as enticement.

Of course, simply dumping Smart and Thompson won't help things if they turn around and re-sign Fournier for similar money as those two guys make combined.  But at least it would create a multi-year asset in place of an expiring contract and an overpaid big.

Other moves could involve dumping some of the slightly overpaid young guys (like Grant and Romeo and Carsen) for slightly cheaper veterans with more defined skillsets.


None of these ideas would make the Celts a contender next year or radically change the math.

The fundamental problem is they need a genuine veteran All Star leader in Kemba's spot, plus a more experienced and complementary supporting cast.

Wave a magic wand and replace Kemba with Kyle Lowry and replace all the rookie contract bench guys with playoff hardened veterans, suddenly this team seems really promising, even if the window would seem kinda short.  I don't have a magic wand, though, and I don't think Danny does either.

[keevsnick]

GSW may have done it, but dont forget they did it while constructing a new building they want to lure fans to AND during/after a series of finals runs. The celtics have never gone even 15+ million into the tax and we know they care because they dumped theis this year to avoid the tax.

exactly.

and even though you can argue the Bay Area is not actually a "bigger" market than Boston / New England, there's so much more money there.  And it is a much larger market if you take into account the greater Bay area (basically most of Northern California).

except it isn't.  The Boston metropolitan area has 4.87 million people while the San Fran/Oakland MSA has 4.73 million people.  If you want to add in San Jose/Santa Clara that is 1.99 million, but then you should probably add in places like Providence/Warwick and its 1.62 million.  This notion that the San Francisco area is massively bigger than Boston just isn't borne in reality.  And if you go sport by sport Boston's teams are all valued more than the Bay Area teams except for the Warriors eclipsing the Celtics (though a lot of that is because they are winning and just opened a new arena - see Cleveland's valuation with Lebron and without Lebron).  The Patriots and Red Sox are worth significantly more than the 49ers and Giants or A's.  And the Bruins basically double the Sharks in valuation.

I just kind of feel that arguments about Market size are sort of irrelevant. We may have a larger market than Golden State but they've already proven they will spend for a champion, whereas Boston doesn't have that kind of team yet and besides that has never demonstrated that it will spend DEEP (15 million+) into the tax.

But this offseason will tell us a lot. If they go deep to bring back Fournier and dont cut costs elsewhere then good for them (and us). I just have to see it before i believe it. 

[Moranis]

There's no way they're paying top dollar to bring this group back

How do you fix it?  Just letting Fournier walk isn't good enough.  So what do you do?

I think I've been pretty clear that I don't see a good solution and that is why I'm down on the team.


My preference would be find a team to take Kemba that doesn't require a bunch of other assets included and doesn't insist on sending back a bunch of salary.

I see that as fairly implausible, so instead I expect Danny to shop Smart and Tristan Thompson, using Timelord / Nesmith / the Celts 2021 1st round pick as enticement.

Of course, simply dumping Smart and Thompson won't help things if they turn around and re-sign Fournier for similar money as those two guys make combined.  But at least it would create a multi-year asset in place of an expiring contract and an overpaid big.

Other moves could involve dumping some of the slightly overpaid young guys (like Grant and Romeo and Carsen) for slightly cheaper veterans with more defined skillsets.


None of these ideas would make the Celts a contender next year or radically change the math.

The fundamental problem is they need a genuine veteran All Star leader in Kemba's spot, plus a more experienced and complementary supporting cast.

Wave a magic wand and replace Kemba with Kyle Lowry and replace all the rookie contract bench guys with playoff hardened veterans, suddenly this team seems really promising, even if the window would seem kinda short.  I don't have a magic wand, though, and I don't think Danny does either.

On some level that makes sense, but as you say it doesn't really move the needle, so I'm not sure why Boston would do that.  And while this trade with LA doesn't exactly move the needle, I do thin it sets the team up better long term: Kemba and Thompson for Beverley, Zubac, and Morris.  Shaves some money, but gives the team more depth and flexibility and I think a Zubac/Williams center rotation would be pretty solid going forward.

I also sort of hope GS lands Minny's pick this year in the 4, 5, or 6 range as I do think it might be available in a cost saving/win now type trade.  Heck maybe you combine that with the LA trade

Boston - Wiggins, Beverley, Morris, Zubac, Minny's 1st
GS - Smart, Thompson, Langford, Bos 1st
LAC - Walker, Looney

Doesn't save Boston a ton of money, but resets the team a lot and hopefully that Minny 1st develops into a real player down the line. 

[PhoSita]

Intentionally taking a step back and going back into asset accumulation mode in order to build a trade offer for the next disgruntled star seems like an option Ainge may very well choose.

My concern is that likely leads to the Celts dealing with uncomfortable questions around whether Jaylen or Jayson is going to demand a trade if a big move doesn't materialize in a year or so.


Then again if the Celts are in cap hell and spend another season struggling to meet expectations created by past playoff runs, we might be dealing with those questions anyway.

[LilRip]

Intentionally taking a step back and going back into asset accumulation mode in order to build a trade offer for the next disgruntled star seems like an option Ainge may very well choose.

My concern is that likely leads to the Celts dealing with uncomfortable questions around whether Jaylen or Jayson is going to demand a trade if a big move doesn't materialize in a year or so.


Then again if the Celts are in cap hell and spend another season struggling to meet expectations created by past playoff runs, we might be dealing with those questions anyway.

The team does seem stuck. They’re close but have run out of moves, it seems. It means we’ll likely need to ship out someone the fanbase likes in order to get someone of value and shake things up in the right direction.

I think this team has generally lacked mental toughness and energy. If Washington wasn’t winning, I think trading Kemba (plus more like Smart, TL, and/or picks) for Westbrook (who is making even more than Kemba) and shooters (like Bertans?) would make a big difference for this team. Westbrook brings intensity, makes middling players look good, and fits into CBS’ switch everything philosophy.

Westbrook-Fournier-Brown-Tatum-Thompson
Pritchard-Nesmith-Parker-Bertans-Kornet

We’d probably want another vet min guy to better round out the bench but that lineup and bench looks formidable to me.

[Muzzy66]

There's no way they're paying top dollar to bring this group back

How do you fix it?  Just letting Fournier walk isn't good enough.  So what do you do?

I think I've been pretty clear that I don't see a good solution and that is why I'm down on the team.


My preference would be find a team to take Kemba that doesn't require a bunch of other assets included and doesn't insist on sending back a bunch of salary.

I see that as fairly implausible, so instead I expect Danny to shop Smart and Tristan Thompson, using Timelord / Nesmith / the Celts 2021 1st round pick as enticement.

Of course, simply dumping Smart and Thompson won't help things if they turn around and re-sign Fournier for similar money as those two guys make combined.  But at least it would create a multi-year asset in place of an expiring contract and an overpaid big.

Other moves could involve dumping some of the slightly overpaid young guys (like Grant and Romeo and Carsen) for slightly cheaper veterans with more defined skillsets.


None of these ideas would make the Celts a contender next year or radically change the math.

The fundamental problem is they need a genuine veteran All Star leader in Kemba's spot, plus a more experienced and complementary supporting cast.

Wave a magic wand and replace Kemba with Kyle Lowry and replace all the rookie contract bench guys with playoff hardened veterans, suddenly this team seems really promising, even if the window would seem kinda short.  I don't have a magic wand, though, and I don't think Danny does either.

On some level that makes sense, but as you say it doesn't really move the needle, so I'm not sure why Boston would do that.  And while this trade with LA doesn't exactly move the needle, I do thin it sets the team up better long term: Kemba and Thompson for Beverley, Zubac, and Morris.  Shaves some money, but gives the team more depth and flexibility and I think a Zubac/Williams center rotation would be pretty solid going forward.

I also sort of hope GS lands Minny's pick this year in the 4, 5, or 6 range as I do think it might be available in a cost saving/win now type trade.  Heck maybe you combine that with the LA trade

Boston - Wiggins, Beverley, Morris, Zubac, Minny's 1st
GS - Smart, Thompson, Langford, Bos 1st
LAC - Walker, Looney

Doesn't save Boston a ton of money, but resets the team a lot and hopefully that Minny 1st develops into a real player down the line.

I'm not entirely sure why the Warriors would give up Wiggins in return for a pair of role players (Smart and Thompson), an prospect who probably wont be in the league in 5 years (Langford) and a mediocre first round pick.

Am I missing something?

[Muzzy66]

Wave a magic wand and replace Kemba with Kyle Lowry and replace all the rookie contract bench guys with playoff hardened veterans, suddenly this team seems really promising, even if the window would seem kinda short.  I don't have a magic wand, though, and I don't think Danny does either.

I'm honestly not convinced that this would change much.

I know Lowry is a quality player but he's also massively undersized, is 35 years old, and seems to have a questionable history of performing in the playoffs.  And to be honest, I'm not convinced that he is much (if any) of an upgrade overall over Kemba who is (IMHO) a vastly superior offensive player. 

[Moranis]

There's no way they're paying top dollar to bring this group back

How do you fix it?  Just letting Fournier walk isn't good enough.  So what do you do?

I think I've been pretty clear that I don't see a good solution and that is why I'm down on the team.


My preference would be find a team to take Kemba that doesn't require a bunch of other assets included and doesn't insist on sending back a bunch of salary.

I see that as fairly implausible, so instead I expect Danny to shop Smart and Tristan Thompson, using Timelord / Nesmith / the Celts 2021 1st round pick as enticement.

Of course, simply dumping Smart and Thompson won't help things if they turn around and re-sign Fournier for similar money as those two guys make combined.  But at least it would create a multi-year asset in place of an expiring contract and an overpaid big.

Other moves could involve dumping some of the slightly overpaid young guys (like Grant and Romeo and Carsen) for slightly cheaper veterans with more defined skillsets.


None of these ideas would make the Celts a contender next year or radically change the math.

The fundamental problem is they need a genuine veteran All Star leader in Kemba's spot, plus a more experienced and complementary supporting cast.

Wave a magic wand and replace Kemba with Kyle Lowry and replace all the rookie contract bench guys with playoff hardened veterans, suddenly this team seems really promising, even if the window would seem kinda short.  I don't have a magic wand, though, and I don't think Danny does either.

On some level that makes sense, but as you say it doesn't really move the needle, so I'm not sure why Boston would do that.  And while this trade with LA doesn't exactly move the needle, I do thin it sets the team up better long term: Kemba and Thompson for Beverley, Zubac, and Morris.  Shaves some money, but gives the team more depth and flexibility and I think a Zubac/Williams center rotation would be pretty solid going forward.

I also sort of hope GS lands Minny's pick this year in the 4, 5, or 6 range as I do think it might be available in a cost saving/win now type trade.  Heck maybe you combine that with the LA trade

Boston - Wiggins, Beverley, Morris, Zubac, Minny's 1st
GS - Smart, Thompson, Langford, Bos 1st
LAC - Walker, Looney

Doesn't save Boston a ton of money, but resets the team a lot and hopefully that Minny 1st develops into a real player down the line.

I'm not entirely sure why the Warriors would give up Wiggins in return for a pair of role players (Smart and Thompson), an prospect who probably wont be in the league in 5 years (Langford) and a mediocre first round pick.

Am I missing something?

They are in cap hell and Wiggins isn't going to help their title aspirations.  I think they want one more real shot at a title and Smart and Thompson make far more sense for that then Wiggins, especially since Smart and Thompson collectively make less than Wiggins and aren't signed for an additional year.  Curry, Klay, Smart, Green, Thompson is a pretty darn good starting 5.  And they still have Wiseman, Lee, Langford, BOS 1st, etc. on the bench.  Wiggins just doesn't help them push for a title and because he has the extra year they are going to need to include an asset to unload him.  I think that asset will probably be either Wiseman or the Minny pick. 

[Celtics4ever]

Fixing this team is going to hurt, as I don't think it will be easy to do so.  We have quite a few holes and our assets are less than they used to be.   

Ainge was a fool expecting the bench to perform well this year.  Now some of these guys are next to worthless both in play and value. 

So you might as well, not expect a move that everyone likes because I think we have some definite pain in our future to get out of this hole.   It may take shipping out a J.  It may take moving Rob or Smart.   It may take shipping Kemba out for pennies on the dollar.   It is not like your breaking up a title contending team with this roster.  I see up having to take back some other's team undesirable assets in some form.

It is clear that what we have is not working.   You can blame Ainge, CBS or the players and truth be told they all have played a role in this fiasco of a season.

[PhoSita]

Fixing this team is going to hurt, as I don't think it will be easy to do so.  We have quite a few holes and our assets are less than they used to be.   

Ainge was a fool expecting the bench to perform well this year.  Now some of these guys are next to worthless both in play and value. 

So you might as well, not expect a move that everyone likes because I think we have some definite pain in our future to get out of this hole.   It may take shipping out a J.  It may take moving Rob or Smart.   It may take shipping Kemba out for pennies on the dollar.   It is not like your breaking up a title contending team with this roster.  I see up having to take back some other's team undesirable assets in some form.

It is clear that what we have is not working.   You can blame Ainge, CBS or the players and truth be told they all have played a role in this fiasco of a season.

Different situation, but perhaps it'll be a bit like when the 02-03 team posted just 44 wins and got swept in the semis after making a run to Game 6 of the ECF the season before.  Ainge made a bunch of trades including shipping out Toine.  The team won just 36 games and got swept in the 1st round. 


Crazy thing is this Celtics team is a lot more talented than that 03 team and yet they're very likely going to have a worse result.


When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

[Roy H.]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

[Kernewek]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

It's been a while, but I seem to remember the C's beating the Iverson-Mutumbo 76ers in the first round the year after they made the Finals and we were the higher-seeded team.

[PhoSita]

When was the last time a team fizzled out in Round 1 as a bottom seed after making it to the ECF the season previous, despite having all the core players from the previous playoff run still on the roster?

OK yes, they are missing Theis now.  Fair point.

But do you think the team would be in a majorly different position right now if they'd kept Theis?