Is Len Bias really as good as Bill Simmons says he is?

[tazzmaniac]

One thing that always takes me down from fantasizing what might have been is that he was drafted #2.

People act like he was that next sure thing, a generational prospect, that can't miss franchise cornerstone, etc.,  but he was drafted #2.  Guys that are that clearly a superstar usually don't get drafted #2.

Now sure this was the era where if there's an All-Star caliber Center available, that's who you take, '86 was in the middle of a 5 year stretch of Centers getting drafted #1, along with most of the top few picks being either a C or PF.  So maybe Bias just didn't fit the right mold to go #1.  Maybe he was viewed as Durant here, a generational talent but the guy ahead of him had more appeal just because he was a Center.  (But also think Jordan's explosion the previous year would help shatter that glass ceiling and have people start searching for that next Jordan, if he really was supposed to be the next Jordan).

And while sure there's some studs in the 80's near the top of the draft not drafted #1 (Jordan, Dominique, Isiah), but there's more non studs by far.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was Danny Manning or Wayman Tisdale or Danny Ferry or Armen Gilliam or Rodney McCray or Xavier McDaniel, etc. who was drafted by the Celtics but had an untimely demise and then we'd see them romanticized the same way (only with the PF compared more to Barkley/Malone than Jordan).

Maybe there was a lot of debate of who should go #1, and maybe a lot of other franchises would have actually drafted Bias #1.  There was debut that Carmelo should be drafted over LeBron, that Emeka Okafor should be drafted over Howard, that Aldridge should be drafted over Bargnani, that Durant should be drafted over Oden, that Ball should be drafted over Fultz, that Camby should be drafted over Iverson, etc.  Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.


But the fact that he went #2 definitely makes me question how much of a generational talent he really was at the time.  And if there was that buzz, was it just normal rookie hype (like is often seen with guys like Andrew Wiggins, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, etc.)?

Just on the hype train, here's a few articles calling Andrew Wiggins the next LeBron:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/basketball/basketball-phenomenon-andrew-wiggins-dubbed-the-best-prospect-since-lebron-james/news-story/024e639ff57e3a5c2ac15de9522384b1

https://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-wiggins-next-lebron-2013-5


Just because people are saying it, doesn't make it true.


Just the pessimist in me.

I think a Worthy comparison for Bias is reasonable.  Comparing him to Jordan or Lebron is ridiculous. 

Now as far as not being #1 that doesn't mean that much.  Jordan was the #3 pick.  KD was the #2 pick.  Wiggins was the #1 pick because Embiid got injured. 

[Somebody]

我不会说英语（我是中国人）。 我用翻译表达自己。 如有语法问题，请见谅 ; D ; D ; D

English translation from IllalwayslikeHavlicek:

‘I don't speak English (I am Chinese). I use translation to express myself. If you (I) have any grammar problems, please forgive me’

You know Chinese? Not questioning your translation, it's correct, just curious lol.

[Somebody]

He could have been.  He could have been better than that.  Or, even if he survived draft night, he could have ended up as a waste of potential.

Yeah, and that's the part of the equation that people tend to overlook.  In that day & age, you just don't know how he would've turned out.  Especially if he was dabbling in that stuff before he was about to receive a boatload of money as a professional.  You would certainly hope that he would've been kept in line by the organization and his teammates but you just don't know.  Look at what happened to some of his contemporaries of the time.

To be fair none of them ever started their careers as the teammate of legends like Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish lol. But yeah his drug issues were certainly a massive concern.

[tazzmaniac]

One thing to note about Bias is that he played 4 seasons at Maryland whereas Bird, Hakeem, Barkley, Jordan, Worthy played 3 college seasons and Magic played 2 college seasons. 

[Moranis]

We've had the Bias discussions before on here and the one that always gives me pause on how good he might have been is just how mediocre Maryland was for the entirety of his career.  And while he didn't play with any NBA superstars, he did play with several players that played in the NBA and/or had long professional careers overseas.  His senior year, after Branch had graduated, they were a 19-14 team (Massenburg was a freshman).  That is when Bias should have been at his peak, but he couldn't carry them to even 20 wins.  He made 1 sweet sixteen and never went further (Branch's senior year).  I just have a hard time believing that a guy that was destined to be Lebron James or Michael Jordan won so little in college.

[bdm860]

One thing that always takes me down from fantasizing what might have been is that he was drafted #2.

People act like he was that next sure thing, a generational prospect, that can't miss franchise cornerstone, etc.,  but he was drafted #2.  Guys that are that clearly a superstar usually don't get drafted #2.

Now sure this was the era where if there's an All-Star caliber Center available, that's who you take, '86 was in the middle of a 5 year stretch of Centers getting drafted #1, along with most of the top few picks being either a C or PF.  So maybe Bias just didn't fit the right mold to go #1.  Maybe he was viewed as Durant here, a generational talent but the guy ahead of him had more appeal just because he was a Center.  (But also think Jordan's explosion the previous year would help shatter that glass ceiling and have people start searching for that next Jordan, if he really was supposed to be the next Jordan).

And while sure there's some studs in the 80's near the top of the draft not drafted #1 (Jordan, Dominique, Isiah), but there's more non studs by far.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was Danny Manning or Wayman Tisdale or Danny Ferry or Armen Gilliam or Rodney McCray or Xavier McDaniel, etc. who was drafted by the Celtics but had an untimely demise and then we'd see them romanticized the same way (only with the PF compared more to Barkley/Malone than Jordan).

Maybe there was a lot of debate of who should go #1, and maybe a lot of other franchises would have actually drafted Bias #1.  There was debut that Carmelo should be drafted over LeBron, that Emeka Okafor should be drafted over Howard, that Aldridge should be drafted over Bargnani, that Durant should be drafted over Oden, that Ball should be drafted over Fultz, that Camby should be drafted over Iverson, etc.  Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.


But the fact that he went #2 definitely makes me question how much of a generational talent he really was at the time.  And if there was that buzz, was it just normal rookie hype (like is often seen with guys like Andrew Wiggins, OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, etc.)?

Just on the hype train, here's a few articles calling Andrew Wiggins the next LeBron:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/basketball/basketball-phenomenon-andrew-wiggins-dubbed-the-best-prospect-since-lebron-james/news-story/024e639ff57e3a5c2ac15de9522384b1

https://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-wiggins-next-lebron-2013-5


Just because people are saying it, doesn't make it true.


Just the pessimist in me.

I think a Worthy comparison for Bias is reasonable.  Comparing him to Jordan or Lebron is ridiculous. 

Now as far as not being #1 that doesn't mean that much.  Jordan was the #3 pick.  KD was the #2 pick.  Wiggins was the #1 pick because Embiid got injured.

Of course guys can be superstars not being drafted #1.

But it's that people act like it was a given he was that next transcendent superstar.  That the most likely outcome for Bias was that he was going to have a first ballot Hall of Fame career.  I question that initial hype when he wasn't even good enough to get drafted #1.  Though maybe it was the Center thing or a bad front office or a 2 superstar draft...


As for Wiggins, he was absolutely seen as the #1 pick before Embiid overtook him:

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/9652326/nba-andrew-wiggins-tops-2014-mock-draft-10

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1828809-2014-nba-mock-draft-projecting-entire-first-round-before-2013-14-season-starts

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1687393-2014-nba-mock-draft-early-projections-for-entire-1st-round

All to say, even if the Bias hype was in fact legitimately there at the time, and people really did think he was the next Jordan, that definitely doesn't mean that hype would actually turn to success.  Guys get hyped up as the next big thing all the time (like Wiggins or most of the guys drafted in the top 5 in any year).

[Silas]

They played against each other.   Jordan drafted in 84 and Bias drafted in 86. 

[Silas]

Also, Brad Daugherty was Cleveland’s No 1 pick in 86.  They needed or wanted a starting center. I think Daugherty was a skilled 7 footer.  He played with Jordan a UNC. 

[slamtheking]

Also, Brad Daugherty was Cleveland’s No 1 pick in 86.  They needed or wanted a starting center. I think Daugherty was a skilled 7 footer.  He played with Jordan a UNC.

as the story goes, Red told the Cleveland rep at the draft drawing that if they didn't take Daugherty, he would which was his masterful way of getting Bias to drop to him at #2.

[Donoghus]

Also, Brad Daugherty was Cleveland’s No 1 pick in 86.  They needed or wanted a starting center. I think Daugherty was a skilled 7 footer.  He played with Jordan a UNC.

as the story goes, Red told the Cleveland rep at the draft drawing that if they didn't take Daugherty, he would which was his masterful way of getting Bias to drop to him at #2.

Cleveland never should've had that pick in the first place.  The Sixers made a horrible trade out of the slot.

[86MaxwellSmart]

GOAT.

[hwangjini_1]

我不会说英语（我是中国人）。 我用翻译表达自己。 如有语法问题，请见谅 ; D ; D ; D

你好。我只会一点中文。欢迎。我希望你喜欢凯尔特人。

[DarrenTillis]

Bias was a beast.  Any comparisons to one-dimensional or otherwise limited college stars like Walter Berry or Armen Gilliam are badly misplaced.  Closest comp I always have carried in my mind is Dominique Wilkins.  His Georgia teams were significantly worse than Maryland's Bias-led teams, but that didn't stop 'Nique from becoming an elite NBA player. 

I don't think Bias would have been quite as prolific offensively as Wilkins (perhaps 23-25 PPG in his prime as opposed to 28-30 PPG like Wilkins), but I think he would have been a perennial all-star (assuming he was not dealing with an ongoing drug problem, in which case he might have had a Roy Tarpley-type career).   

[slamtheking]

Also, Brad Daugherty was Cleveland’s No 1 pick in 86.  They needed or wanted a starting center. I think Daugherty was a skilled 7 footer.  He played with Jordan a UNC.

as the story goes, Red told the Cleveland rep at the draft drawing that if they didn't take Daugherty, he would which was his masterful way of getting Bias to drop to him at #2.

Cleveland never should've had that pick in the first place.  The Sixers made a horrible trade out of the slot.

anything bad for the Sixers always brings me joy. 

Cleveland was its own worst enemy.  how incompetent does a franchise have to be to have the NBA create a rule to prevent blatant incompetence and name it after the owner?  The Stepien rule lives on to this day.

[hardlyyardley]

Agree with the stronger James Worthy comparison....The month before the draft I was at a conference in St Martin  and bumped into coach K at the lunch line on the beach after the conference was over and asked him about Bias....he went on raving about him