What’s your take on why he fell? I assume you watch a lot of Ohio State games. As a Bears fan, he [Justin Fields] seems like a total package. I was a big proponent of drafting Deshaun Watson over Mitch Trubisky, and I feel the same way about taking Fields over anybody other than Lawrence. Now, maybe one of the other guys is the next Mahomes for all I know. But Fields can be a top-6 QB someday. Am I wrong?
And if he is as good as I think he is, why are front offices overthinking this? Is it just the nature of the beast, like we’ve seen from all pros like Rogers, Mahomes and Watson?
It is not a question of whether you are wrong or not (you probably are as likely to be wrong as anyone), the fact of the matter is that no one can know. Not the scouts, not the GMs, not the ESPN experts, and certainly not fans. I honestly believe you could put these 5 names in a hat and have an equal chance of choosing the best career player as you do with drafting. And if not all 5, certainly 2-5.
This is why it is generally a bad move to trade up or otherwise reach. Now if you trade up from 52 to 45 or something like that, that is different of course but to package multiple firsts and other picks to move to take a chance on a QB is generally just not good draft value management.
I suspect (but of course I don't know any more than anyone else) that history will look back unfavorably on both SF and CHI although more so SF. SF really reached, CHI just a medium reach. The 49ers may have themselves the next Mahomes but this is a really risky pick that they gave up a boatload for. CHI pick is less risky, I too like Fields, but they still gave up a lot for it (I can understand why). Chicago could have just traded a pick (the first in 2022) that ends up being the next Mahomes and Fields may or may not end up being all that good.