| Seasons APG Leader APG Team Team ORtg Team EFG% Team PPG Team Record 2012-2013 Rajon Rondo 11.1 BOS 102.1 (27th) .493% (12th) 94.9 (23rd) 20-22 (17th) 2011-2012 Rajon Rondo 11.7 BOS 101.0 (26th) .496% (10th) 91.8 (26th) 39-27 (10th) 2010-2011 Steve Nash 11.42 PHO 109.5 (9th) .522 (5th) 105.0 (4th) 40-42 (17th) 2009-2010 Steve Nash 11.01 PHO 115.3 (1st) .546 (1st) 110.2 (1st) 54-28 (5th) 2008-2009 Chris Paul 11.04 NOH 108.7 (12th) .501 (13th) 95.8 (26th) 49-33 (10th) 2007-2008 Chris Paul 11.56 NOH 111.5 (5th) .512 (6th) 100.9 (9th) 56-26 (4th) 2006-2007 Steve Nash 11.63 PHO 113.9 (1st) .551 (1st) 110.2 (1st) 61-21 (2nd) 2005-2006 Steve Nash 10.46 PHO 111.5 (2nd) .537 (1st) 108.4 (1st) 54-28 (4th) 2004-2005 Steve Nash 11.48 PHO 114.5 (1st) .534 (1st) 110.4 (1st) 62-20 (1st) 2003-2004 Jason Kidd 9.22 NJN 100.8 (25th) .471 (16th) 90.3 (22nd) 47-35 (9th) 2002-2003 Jason Kidd 8.9 NJN 103.8 (18th) .468 (21st) 95.4 (14th) 49-33 (8th) 2001-2002 Andre Miller 10.9 CLE 104.6 (14th) .477 (12th) 95.3 (16th) 29-53 (24th) 2000-2001 Jason Kidd 9.8 PHO 100.3 (22nd) .460 (22nd) 94.0 (17th) 51-31 (8th) 1999-2000 Jason Kidd 10.1 PHO 104.6 (16th) .491 (7th) 98.9 (12th) 53-29 (5th) 1998-1999 Jason Kidd 10.8 PHO 105.8 (3rd) .481 (8th) 95.6 (3rd) 27-23 (14th) 1997-1998 Rod Strickland 10.54 WAS 105.2 (14th) .476 (15th) 97.2 (8th) 42-40 (16th) 1996-1997 Mark Jackson 11.4 DEN / IND 104.5 (24th) / 105.8 (15th) .486 (18th) / .490 (17th) 97.8 (13th) / 95.4 (20th) 21-61 (26th) / 39-43 (17th) 1995-1996 John Stockton 11.17 UTA 113.3 (2nd) .517 (5th) 102.5 (10th) 55-27 (5th) 1994-1995 John Stockton 12.33 UTA 114.3 (4th) .535 (2nd) 106.4 (5th) 60-22 (2nd) 1993-1994 John Stockton 12.57 UTA 108.6 (7th) .490 (10th) 101.9 (10th) 53-29 (8th) 1992-1993 John Stockton 12.04 UTA 109.6 (6th) .498 (11th) 106.2 (11th) 47-35 (10th) |
Apparently Hornets in their final year of their Chris Paul era didn't have much offensive efficiency either.
Nash had a crappy support cast in Phoenix but the pieces fit. They ran and gunned. Not saying Nash wasn't a better play maker than Rondo though (because he was), just saying his support cast may have sucked but the pieces fit.
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team. In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense. Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.
But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion. How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team. In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense. Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.
But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion. How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?
It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team. In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense. Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.
But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion. How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?
I wanted to take a look at the offenses that other top assist-getters have run over the last 20 years or so. Does leading the league in assists always correlate with having a high powered offense?
The following is a table (sorry for the rough formatting) listing the season assist-per-game leaders for the last 20 seasons, including this season. Also listed are some of the key offensive stats for the teams the assist leaders played on, and how the teams ranked league-wide in each of those categories.
Seasons APG Leader APG Team Team ORtg Team EFG% Team PPG Team Record
2012-2013 Rajon Rondo 11.1 BOS 102.1 (27th) .493% (12th) 94.9 (23rd) 20-22 (17th)
2011-2012 Rajon Rondo 11.7 BOS 101.0 (26th) .496% (10th) 91.8 (26th) 39-27 (10th)
2010-2011 Steve Nash 11.42 PHO 109.5 (9th) .522 (5th) 105.0 (4th) 40-42 (17th)
2009-2010 Steve Nash 11.01 PHO 115.3 (1st) .546 (1st) 110.2 (1st) 54-28 (5th)
2008-2009 Chris Paul 11.04 NOH 108.7 (12th) .501 (13th) 95.8 (26th) 49-33 (10th)
2007-2008 Chris Paul 11.56 NOH 111.5 (5th) .512 (6th) 100.9 (9th) 56-26 (4th)
2006-2007 Steve Nash 11.63 PHO 113.9 (1st) .551 (1st) 110.2 (1st) 61-21 (2nd)
2005-2006 Steve Nash 10.46 PHO 111.5 (2nd) .537 (1st) 108.4 (1st) 54-28 (4th)
2004-2005 Steve Nash 11.48 PHO 114.5 (1st) .534 (1st) 110.4 (1st) 62-20 (1st)
2003-2004 Jason Kidd 9.22 NJN 100.8 (25th) .471 (16th) 90.3 (22nd) 47-35 (9th)
2002-2003 Jason Kidd 8.9 NJN 103.8 (18th) .468 (21st) 95.4 (14th) 49-33 (8th)
2001-2002 Andre Miller 10.9 CLE 104.6 (14th) .477 (12th) 95.3 (16th) 29-53 (24th)
2000-2001 Jason Kidd 9.8 PHO 100.3 (22nd) .460 (22nd) 94.0 (17th) 51-31 (8th)
1999-2000 Jason Kidd 10.1 PHO 104.6 (16th) .491 (7th) 98.9 (12th) 53-29 (5th)
1998-1999 Jason Kidd 10.8 PHO 105.8 (3rd) .481 (8th) 95.6 (3rd) 27-23 (14th)
1997-1998 Rod Strickland 10.54 WAS 105.2 (14th) .476 (15th) 97.2 (8th) 42-40 (16th)
1996-1997 Mark Jackson 11.4 DEN / IND 104.5 (24th) / 105.8 (15th) .486 (18th) / .490 (17th) 97.8 (13th) / 95.4 (20th) 21-61 (26th) / 39-43 (17th)
1995-1996 John Stockton 11.17 UTA 113.3 (2nd) .517 (5th) 102.5 (10th) 55-27 (5th)
1994-1995 John Stockton 12.33 UTA 114.3 (4th) .535 (2nd) 106.4 (5th) 60-22 (2nd)
1993-1994 John Stockton 12.57 UTA 108.6 (7th) .490 (10th) 101.9 (10th) 53-29 (8th)
1992-1993 John Stockton 12.04 UTA 109.6 (6th) .498 (11th) 106.2 (11th) 47-35 (10th)
The results aren't entirely surprising. Steve Nash's teams are almost always near the top of the league in offensive categories. Whatever he does in terms of running an offense, he does it well. Even when he had crappy teammates his last two seasons in Phoenix, his teams were still in the top 3rd in the league offensively.
In fact, it looks as though the Celtics of this season and last are the weakest offenses among the twenty teams on the list -- the only team that comes close is the 2003-2004 Nets led by Jason Kidd.
I don't really have answers for this. I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics' offensive struggles (though he must play some part). But it has to be at least somewhat of an indictment on him that though he leads the league in assists, his teams are still very underwhelming offensively, right?
The answer is: Shot location distribution.
The problem with our offensive efficiency is not the number of assists (assisted shots as a rule tend to be more efficient), but where we are taking shots from.
Over the last couple of seasons we have declined in the share of our shots that are taken 'at rim' and from beyond the 3PT arc. Basically, a higher percentage of our shots are 2PT jumpers - which are the least efficent shot type for generating points.
If you categorize the former two categories ('At Rim' and 3PT) as 'high efficiency shots' then compare the share of our shots that are high efficiency to our resulting ORtg (points per 100 possessions) then you can see the fall-off pretty clearly:
(http://imageshack.us/a/img221/2986/celtichiefficiencyshott.png)
There is a more detailed discussion of this in this thread:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=60222.msg1321413;topicseen
Basically, we don't have enough bigs who score down low and we don't take enough 3PT shots.
I'm not saying that Rondo is to blame for the Celtics'
It seems to me that a common assumption is that point guards who rack up a lot of assists are generating offense for their team. In other words, a point guard who generates a lot of assists is usually running an efficient, productive offense. Seems like it ought to work that way, at least.
But the past few seasons for the Celtics have refuted that notion. How is it that Rondo piles on the assists, yet the Celtics have one of the worst offenses in the league?
It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.
So did all the teams on this list have better offensive rebounding?
I guess I'm just wondering why in the last twenty years of assist leaders, Rondo's teams stand out pretty glaringly as the weakest offensively.
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?
Gotta agree with thisI guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?
The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray. It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.
Mike
It's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.
Gotta agree with thisI guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?
The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray. It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.
Mike
It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.
Gotta agree with thisI guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?
The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray. It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.
Mike
Hide Rondo? The guy has the ball in his hands 90 percent of the time. Most of KG's points come off open jumpers from Rondo's penetrations when he's not pounding the ball. This scheme is completely different than the one in 2008. Rondo was pretty much Mario Chalmers in the offense then, except without the 3 point shot.
Gotta agree with thisI guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?
The current Celtic offense was designed to essentially hide Rondo and Perk while evenly distributing shots among Pierce, KG and Ray. It's not Rondo's fault that Doc has made little to no changes to that scheme in the last 4 years.
Mike
Hide Rondo? The guy has the ball in his hands 90 percent of the time.
QuoteIt's fairly common knowledge that our abysmal offensive rebounding is the biggest drag on our offensive efficiency. If we were an average offensive rebounding team we'd be an above average offense.
It is fairly common knowledge that our offensive rebounding contributes to the poor offense, along with Rondo's inefficiency and the lack of outside shooting overall.
What you're saying makes sense, and it's something I've read about in the past.
I guess what I'm wondering is, does Rondo play a role in that one way or another?
Would Rondo be running one of the best offenses in the league if you gave him more bigs and more outside shooters?
Is it that Rondo has grown up in the league playing in an offensive "system" favoring slow, half-court play with a heavy emphasis on mid-range jumpshots and he needs to get more used to pushing the tempo and getting it to guys cutting to the rim or spotting up outside?
Would our offense be equally as bad if you switched Rondo for another prolific passer with a somewhat different skillset (e.g. a healthy Rubio or Steve Nash, or even somebody like Jrue Holiday or Greivis Vasquez) or do Rondo's weaknesses exacerbate the difficulties that this roster has in terms of taking and making shots from deep and in the paint?
It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.
That's far too reductive.
The fact that the Celtics suck offensively is not Rondo's fault.
Does that means he doesn't play a role in it? I don't agree with that, either.
What I'm trying to get at is there's a disconnect between a common sense notion that a pure passing point guard facilitates offensive production and the fact that Rondo racks up tons of assists even as the Celtics continue to suck offensively.
I accept that the Celtics are a bad rebounding team and that obviously plays a role. But it seems clear that as far as Rondo and the Celtics are concerned, assists do not correlate with efficient offensive production in a clear or direct way.
My instinct is that Rondo's inability to shoot from outside and reluctance to score plays a role in this, and he'll probably not ever be able to run a high powered offense like Nash or Stockton. But maybe that's wrong. Maybe the Celtics would be just as terrible, or worse, with a point guard who gets fewer assists but scores / shoots more (e.g. Jrue Holiday). I'm skeptical about that, though.
Rondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Then where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce? Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year. He's scoring 13.7 points this year. His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league? With this team? With Ray gone?
QuoteRondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.
QuoteRondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.
I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.
He's 42nd among guards for OWS for this season. He's also 42nd among guards for usage. Which is one of the big reasons PER rates him so poorly, same for NBA efficiency.QuoteRondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.
I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.
Point Guards with better PER's than Rondo: 18.5
Chris Paul - 26.12
Russell Westbrook - 23.08
Tony Parker - 22.95
Kyrie Irving - 22.30
Kyle Lowry - 21.56
Jose Calderon (!) - 19.99
Steph Curry - 19.85
Eric Bledsoe - 19.33
Kemba Walker - 19.23
Ramon Sessions - 19.03
Jrue Holliday - 18.90
Deron Williams (in a down year! and will likely overtake Rondo with the way he is playing now) - 18.3
Rondo, in spite of all his assists and rebounds, isn't even top 10 in PER among point guards. Among point guards. Some people will say PER is skewed towards scorers. There are guys on that list who are not scorers first (Calderon, Lowry, Holliday) who do a nice job distributing the ball. Chris Paul is certainly not a score first point guard.
Fine, if you don't like PER, I bet if you run the same numbers for Win Shares/48, you'd get a similar list. It's great that Rondo gets assists but it's not a stretch to say that the list would be similar.
His assists add to our efficiency - but his inability to shoot and score efficiently detract from it, just as our offensive rebounding, turnovers and inability to shoot does.
If you're a defense, and you know the C's can't from the outside and that they have no inside presence, it makes the C's very guard able.
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.
Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.
There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.
QuoteRondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.
I guess it's a good thing he's leading the league in assists then, it turns out that adds to our efficiency as well.
Point Guards with better PER's than Rondo: 18.5
Chris Paul - 26.12
Russell Westbrook - 23.08
Tony Parker - 22.95
Kyrie Irving - 22.30
Kyle Lowry - 21.56
Jose Calderon (!) - 19.99
Steph Curry - 19.85
Eric Bledsoe - 19.33
Kemba Walker - 19.23
Ramon Sessions - 19.03
Jrue Holliday - 18.90
Deron Williams (in a down year! and will likely overtake Rondo with the way he is playing now) - 18.3
Rondo, in spite of all his assists and rebounds, isn't even top 10 in PER among point guards. Among point guards. Some people will say PER is skewed towards scorers. There are guys on that list who are not scorers first (Calderon, Lowry, Holliday) who do a nice job distributing the ball. Chris Paul is certainly not a score first point guard.
Fine, if you don't like PER, I bet if you run the same numbers for Win Shares/48, you'd get a similar list. It's great that Rondo gets assists but it's not a stretch to say that the list would be similar.
His assists add to our efficiency - but his inability to shoot and score efficiently detract from it, just as our offensive rebounding, turnovers and inability to shoot does.
If you're a defense, and you know the C's can't from the outside and that they have no inside presence, it makes the C's very guard able.
QuoteRondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.QuoteThen where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce? Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year. He's scoring 13.7 points this year. His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league? With this team? With Ray gone?
A. The entire of the offense is not summed by by the last minute of the game.
B. Rondo has had plays called for him at the end of the game multiple times this year. Does anyone remember the national TV game that went into overtime? I'm forgetting the team....but that's one instance.
QuoteRondo's efficiency is fairly close to average for a pg.
Great, I'm glad that we have a franchise point guard that is fairly close to average for a point guard, while almost every other top point guard has better efficiency numbers.QuoteThen where was the play for him at the end of the game instead of two plays for Pierce? Rondo averaged 10.6 points the championship year. He's scoring 13.7 points this year. His assists have skyrocketed, but does it make any sense for Rondo to be scoring just 3.1 points per game more than he did his second year in the league? With this team? With Ray gone?
A. The entire of the offense is not summed by by the last minute of the game.
B. Rondo has had plays called for him at the end of the game multiple times this year. Does anyone remember the national TV game that went into overtime? I'm forgetting the team....but that's one instance.
Again, Rondo is scoring just 3.1 points per game more this year than he did in the championship year. Does that make any sense, given his development and the fact that Ray is gone? Last season, Rondo averaged 10.8 shots a game and Ray averaged 10.7 shots a game. With Ray gone, Rondo is getting just 1.3 more shots a game this year. Does that make any sense?
Mike
It sure seems from your follow up posts that what you are trying to do is blame the Celtics offensive problems on Rondo.
That's far too reductive.
The fact that the Celtics suck offensively is not Rondo's fault.
Does that means he doesn't play a role in it? I don't agree with that, either.
What I'm trying to get at is there's a disconnect between a common sense notion that a pure passing point guard facilitates offensive production and the fact that Rondo racks up tons of assists even as the Celtics continue to suck offensively.
I accept that the Celtics are a bad rebounding team and that obviously plays a role. But it seems clear that as far as Rondo and the Celtics are concerned, assists do not correlate with efficient offensive production in a clear or direct way.
My instinct is that Rondo's inability to shoot from outside and reluctance to score plays a role in this, and he'll probably not ever be able to run a high powered offense like Nash or Stockton. But maybe that's wrong. Maybe the Celtics would be just as terrible, or worse, with a point guard who gets fewer assists but scores / shoots more (e.g. Jrue Holiday). I'm skeptical about that, though.
Rondo's already shown that he can run a high powered offense. We had one going in 2010-2011 before he started with the plantar fascitis. He was putting up more assists at the start of the season than anyone ever has and the Celts were playing like a top 5 offensive team.
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.
Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.
There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.
I posted this elsewhere recently, but last march some Wizards fan felt that Wall was losing a lot of assist opportunities because the Wizards were such poor shooters. They looked (on the synergy sports website) at all of the passes Wall made that led to a scoring chance (which would end in a basket, miss or turnover) and compared that to all other turnovers. Wall's passes led to a (roughly, from memory) 44% scoring rate, up from 35% on all other scoring opportunities. (possessions that ended in free throws weren't included in the study fwiw). That 9% increase was just over the league average calculated at 82games of an 8% increase.
For comparison they also looked at Rondo. Passes from Rondo led to scores about 56% of the time compared to about 35% (same as the Wizards btw) on all other scoring opportunities. That was more than double Wall's increase and 2.5 times the league average.
Thatīs because they donīt correlate, or better, only minimal and indirectly. Having a high assist PG basically has nothing to do with offensive efficiency. From the way assist are counted, to the fact that there huge differences in "how" you create those assists, they are one of the least reliable mainstream stats.
Steve Nash wasnīt just leading the league in assists, he was also a dangerous shooter.
There was an article on the front page last year about a stat summit including several nba executives, which highlighted some of the flaws of this particular statistic quite tranparently.
I posted this elsewhere recently, but last march some Wizards fan felt that Wall was losing a lot of assist opportunities because the Wizards were such poor shooters. They looked (on the synergy sports website) at all of the passes Wall made that led to a scoring chance (which would end in a basket, miss or turnover) and compared that to all other turnovers. Wall's passes led to a (roughly, from memory) 44% scoring rate, up from 35% on all other scoring opportunities. (possessions that ended in free throws weren't included in the study fwiw). That 9% increase was just over the league average calculated at 82games of an 8% increase.
For comparison they also looked at Rondo. Passes from Rondo led to scores about 56% of the time compared to about 35% (same as the Wizards btw) on all other scoring opportunities. That was more than double Wall's increase and 2.5 times the league average.
Iīm sorry, I think Iīm unable to follow, what exactly are you trying to say? That somebody whose job it is to create higher scoring opportunities does exactly that? What does that have to do with my post? How does this stat prove a correlation between offensive efficiency and a PG with high assists numbers? Unless you want to argue that Rondo is pretty good at this specific trait, which is a completely different ballgame.
All those numbers are telling me is that teams that push the break have more success. Teams that are slow, lethargic, and walk the ball up and let defenses set their defense every possession have trouble scoring reliably and have less bulk opportunities to score.Brooklyn has the slowest pace in the league this year. They hardly ever run the ball. They have a decently efficient offense.
Rondo has Bass, Green, Sullinger, Lee, Bradley. The whole "HE HAS NO ONE TO RUN WITH" excuse is old and pretty stupid.
Rondo doesn't run because that requires too much effort and he doesn't give a **** until it's the playoffs or vs Miami or NY.