It sounds like the Magic are willing to let him go if he signs a near max or max offer with someone:
Because they aren't clinically insane.
I really, really hope that Tobias Harris on a Max (or near max) contract isn't the best we can do this off-season.
He would potentially cost us 4x - 5x more than what we're paying turner, and there is no way in hell he's ever 2x the player.
Harris is without a doubt in my mind the single most overrated free agent on the market this year. He's one of the worst defenders in the league at the SF spot, and is not even close to being a dominant offensive player - merely an 'above average' one, and according to stats even that's debatable.
He doesn't have much in the way of upside either. He's already played 4 seasons as a pro, and over that time he has never (not once) averaged more than 17.7 Points Per 36 minutes or 36.4% from three (32.1% career average). His career shooting percentages from midrange are below average, his career free throw rate (29%) is average and his scoring efficiency (0.22 Points Per FGA) is also extremely average.
Even if you look at his advanced stats, his offensive game is not even starting calibre (-0.32 Offensive RPM, 39th out of 87 active small forwards) and his defensive game is is bottom 10 at his position (-2.20 Defensive RPM, 77th out of 87 active Small Forwards) and his overall impact on the game is a significantly in the negative (-2.52 Overall Real Plus Minus, 57th out of 87 active Small Forwards).
There is absolutely nothing that is anything but average about this guy - he's not even a starting caliber talent, let alone a star...and his lack of improvement statistically on a per-36 basis (outside of three point percentage) suggests that his upside is also pretty limited.
It's debatable if he's would even add wins over the guys we already have:
Evan Turner has an Overall RPM of -1.36 (-1.09 ORPM, -0.27 DRPM)
Jae Crowder has an Overall RPM of -0.44 (+0.62 ORPM, -1.06 DRPM)
Jonas Jerebko has an overall RPM of +2.59 (+0.93 ORPM, +1.66 DRPM)
I've been really pushing for Danny to go after some (ANY!!) big name free agent who might make us even the slightest bit improved as a team, but I have serious question marks as to whether this guy will improve us at all, because every statistical number i can see indicates to me that he's just as likely (if not more likely) to make us worse and that he's the grandest example of a guy who gets inflated numbers playing in a garbage team.
If we have even the slightest chance of making a run at ANY of the big name players out there who have a chance at being available, then pretty much anybody on the list below (at the 3, 4, 5) would give us a far bigger benefit than Harris would:
Draymond Green (+6.85 RPM)
Demarcus Cousins (+6.12 RPM)
Kris Middleton (+6.07 RPM)
Paul Millsap (+5.11 RPM)
Tyson Chandler (+4.59 RPM)
Deandre Jordan (+4.47 RPM)
Jimmy Butler (+4.31 RPM)
LaMarcus Aldridge (+4.05 RPM)
Kevin Love (+2.81 RPM)
Greg Monroe (+2.66 RPM)
Kenneth Faried (+2.17 RPM)
Thaddeus Young (+1.20 RPM)
Joakim Noah (+1.09 RPM)
Joe Johnson (+0.87 RPM)
Hassan Whiteside (+0.70 RPM)
Robin Lopez (+0.52 RPM)
Rudy Gay (+0.40 RPM)
Paul Pierce (+0.32 RPM)
Roy Hibbert (+0.01 RPM))
The only guys on that list on non-playoff teams are Cousins, Gay, and Farried. The vast majority play on solid playoff teams. And Sacramento won 4 more games than Orlando and Denver won 5 more!!
Sorry, maybe this list will help:
Demarcus Cousins - Sacramento (+6.12 RPM)
Carmelo Anthony - NY Knicks (+4.81 ORPM, -2.09 DRPM, +2.72 RPM)
Ricky Rubio - Minnesota (+0.38 ORPM, +2.33 DRPM, +2.71 RPM)
Elfrid Payton - Orlando (+1.22 ORPM, +0.87 DRPM, +2.09 RPM)
Greg Monroe - Detroit (+0.37 ORPM, +2.29 DRPM, +2.66 RPM)
Robert Covington - Philadelphia (+2.07 ORPM, +0.03 DRPM, +2.10 RPM)
Darren Collison - Sacramento (+1.52 ORPM, +0.26 DRPM, +1.78 RPM)
Kentavious Caldwell Pope - Detroit (+1.66 ORPM, -0.37 DRPM, +0.29 RPM)
Brandon Jennings - Detroit (+2.64 ORPM, -1.41 DRPM, +1.23 RPM)
Theddaus Young - Minnesota/Brooklyn (+0.05 ORPM, +1.15 DRPM, +1.20 RPM)
Kevin Garnett - Minnesota/Brooklyn (-1.42 ORPM, +2.13 DRPM, +0.89 RPM)
Ben McLemore - Sacramento (+0.20 ORPM, +0.71 DRPM, +0.91 RPM)
Joel Anthony - Detroit (-1.82 ORPM, +2.68 DRPM, +0.86 RPM)
Andre Drummond - Detroit (-0.08 ORPM, +0.82 DRPM, +0.74 RPM)
Ronnie Price - LA Lakers (+0.17 ORPM, +0.40 DRPM, +0.57 RPM)
Nikola Pekovic - Minnesota (-0.43 ORPM, +1.00 DRPM, +0.57 RPM)
Rudy Gay - Sacramento (+2.86 ORPM, -2.46 DRPM, +0.40 RPM)
Nerlens Noel - Philadelphia (-4.85 ORPM, +3.36 DRPM, -1.49 DRPM)
Remember that this is 'Real Plus Minus' - it's not a measure of whether the team is winning or losing while the player is on the court. It's a measure of measure of how much the lead
changes while the player is on the court.
Lets say Player-X is on the bench and the team is losing, with their opposing team increasing their lead by 4 points every 3 minutes of game time.
Now lets say Player-X steps on to the court for an 8 minute stretch, and over that stretch the team is still getting outscored by their opponent but this time at a rate of 2 points for every 3 minutes of game time.
Player-X will have a Positive Real-Plus Minus in this scenario, because even though his team is still getting blown out...the rate at which they are getting blown out has reduced...and hence Player-X is having a positive net impact on his team while he is on the court.
This is why (for the most part) the overall greatness / crapiness of the team doesn't really have a huge effect on a player's RPM stats, because these measure how that player impacts the game individually.
The only potential issue with RPM is for guys who play less minutes (like end of bench guys who play 6 minutes per game) because those guys might only get subbed on to the court in garbage time when the team is already either up huge or down huge, and probably gets subbed in along with 4 or 5 other end of bench guys. Hence every time this player gets on the court it's with 4 other crap players, and would likely have a really bad RPM that isn't necessarily reflective of his individual play and/or contribution.
However when you have guys like Harris who play major minutes (his 36 MPG means he's on the court 75% of the time) then you can rest assured that he plays with a huge assortment of different lineups (and with a large assortment of other players), so this gives you a very large and realistic sample size that should give you a very strong indication of how he individually impacted the team.
Plus teams like this usually have a lot of crappy players, so if one crappy player steps off the court, and another crappy player steps on the court in his place, it doesn't really impact the RPM much because the team is getting beat just as badly regardless of which of those guys plays. So when you have a team as bad as Orlando, that ALWAYS has crappy players on the court...and that team gets EVEN WORSE when Harris steps on...then that's really not a good sign.
Topic: Tobias Harris started following Marcus Smart on Twitter, C's players follow him (Read 31200 times)