Author Topic: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?  (Read 91576 times)

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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #90 on: July 19, 2019, 04:16:27 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Man those playoff numbers are crazy,  especially since it includes Game 3 against the Nets which Embiid missed and the Sixers won by 16 (Nets blew a golden opportunity at home there).  So in games Embiid actually played, the NetRtg would have an even greater differential. (Although you could argue winning that game without Embiid shows he's not as important as the numbers make it look, but I think that would be the wrong take.)

He was +89 playing over 70% of the available minutes against the soon-to-be champs.  And the Raptors definitely had players you'd think would be capabale of containing him, being able to play big defensive lineups with 3 of the 4 of Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam/Leonard often on the floor together.  That same size that helped limit rock star Giannis to only +10 against the Raptors (while being +61 and +45 against the Pistons and Celtics).
What makes it even crazier is it isn't like Embiid was on fire dropping 35 and grabbing 15 boards.  He had a very mediocre statistical playoffs.  Against the Raptors he was only 17.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.3 apg with 2 blocks.  He shot only 37% from the field.  I mean Embiid was awful statistically and yet when he was on the floor, the Sixers dominated the Raptors on the scoreboard.  Imagine how much different the entire playoffs are last year if Embiid isn't awful statistically or the Sixers had made all their moves at a time when they could have more properly filled out their bench.  I don't know that the Sixers beat the Bucks, but the whole end of the playoffs may have worked out differently.  Free agency is probably a lot different.

Embiid still has a lot of flaws in his game. He's turnover prone, a mediocre 3-point-shooter, has questionable shot selection and endurance problems, but nonetheless without a doubt a top 10 player in the league. If he can fix a few weaknesses he can truly become a MVP in the NBA.

Everybody's talking how guards and wings have taken over the league, but I think that within 2 years, Embiid, Davis, Jokic and Towns are all regarded as top 10 players and I could see Davis being able to make a claim after this season to be the best player in the NBA.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #91 on: July 19, 2019, 04:43:57 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.
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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #92 on: July 19, 2019, 04:59:49 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.
Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks
Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include
Typical.  Can't make a cogent argument so get petty.  Betting odds aren't objective.  They're geared to get people to bet like the gambling houses want them too taking into account people's prejudices and tendencies. 

Updated odds to win 2019-20 NBA title @CaesarsPalace books:
Lakers +350
Clippers +400
Bucks +450
Rockets +700
76ers +800
Warriors +1300
Jazz +1400
Celtics +2000
Nets +2000
Nuggets +2000

I don't think an objective assessment would have Lakers with the best championships odds and I certainly don't think the Rockets should be 4th best odds.  Harden/Westbrook looks like a terrible fit. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #93 on: July 19, 2019, 05:00:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #94 on: July 19, 2019, 05:03:11 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.
Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks
Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include
Typical.  Can't make a cogent argument so get petty.  Betting odds aren't objective.  They're geared to get people to bet like the gambling houses want them too taking into account people's prejudices and tendencies. 

Updated odds to win 2019-20 NBA title @CaesarsPalace books:
Lakers +350
Clippers +400
Bucks +450
Rockets +700
76ers +800
Warriors +1300
Jazz +1400
Celtics +2000
Nets +2000
Nuggets +2000

I don't think an objective assessment would have Lakers with the best championships odds and I certainly don't think the Rockets should be 4th best odds.  Harden/Westbrook looks like a terrible fit.

What did I say that was petty. You have called yourself a huge
Embiid fan going back to college? Have you not said this a bunch of times? It’s pretty common knowledge that people are not as objective about the things they are super big fans of. You yourself have called a bunch of people on here Homer’s or drinking the koolaid or whatever. I am a bit surprised that the clippers are not bigger favorites but that list generally makes sense. The lakers have what many people consider to be two top 5 players in the nba.

Also not sure how rockets could be much lower they upgraded in nostnpost people’s eyes from Paul to Westbrook and were considered the second or third best team through almost all of the entire last season.

Finally 76ers with popular star players like Simmons and embiid are actually a big public play so I think you inadvertently made an argument on why they should probably be even longer shots to win the chip. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #95 on: July 19, 2019, 05:25:44 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Man those playoff numbers are crazy,  especially since it includes Game 3 against the Nets which Embiid missed and the Sixers won by 16 (Nets blew a golden opportunity at home there).  So in games Embiid actually played, the NetRtg would have an even greater differential. (Although you could argue winning that game without Embiid shows he's not as important as the numbers make it look, but I think that would be the wrong take.)

He was +89 playing over 70% of the available minutes against the soon-to-be champs.  And the Raptors definitely had players you'd think would be capabale of containing him, being able to play big defensive lineups with 3 of the 4 of Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam/Leonard often on the floor together.  That same size that helped limit rock star Giannis to only +10 against the Raptors (while being +61 and +45 against the Pistons and Celtics).
What makes it even crazier is it isn't like Embiid was on fire dropping 35 and grabbing 15 boards.  He had a very mediocre statistical playoffs.  Against the Raptors he was only 17.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.3 apg with 2 blocks.  He shot only 37% from the field.  I mean Embiid was awful statistically and yet when he was on the floor, the Sixers dominated the Raptors on the scoreboard.  Imagine how much different the entire playoffs are last year if Embiid isn't awful statistically or the Sixers had made all their moves at a time when they could have more properly filled out their bench.  I don't know that the Sixers beat the Bucks, but the whole end of the playoffs may have worked out differently.  Free agency is probably a lot different.

It is pretty crazy they were playing Greg Monroe as their backup at times in the playoffs (I believe he is fully out of the league now). We were starved for frontcourt depth and we didn't want to keep monroe.
Monroe, Amir, Boban and Bolden couldn't get it done.  They tried small ball with Scott at the 5.  The Sixers arguably cost themselves a championship by not filling their backup C hole.  Dedmon was there for the taking for a couple good 2nd rounds picks. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #96 on: July 19, 2019, 06:01:29 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.
Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks
Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include
Typical.  Can't make a cogent argument so get petty.  Betting odds aren't objective.  They're geared to get people to bet like the gambling houses want them too taking into account people's prejudices and tendencies. 

Updated odds to win 2019-20 NBA title @CaesarsPalace books:
Lakers +350
Clippers +400
Bucks +450
Rockets +700
76ers +800
Warriors +1300
Jazz +1400
Celtics +2000
Nets +2000
Nuggets +2000

I don't think an objective assessment would have Lakers with the best championships odds and I certainly don't think the Rockets should be 4th best odds.  Harden/Westbrook looks like a terrible fit.

What did I say that was petty. You have called yourself a huge
Embiid fan going back to college? Have you not said this a bunch of times? It’s pretty common knowledge that people are not as objective about the things they are super big fans of. You yourself have called a bunch of people on here Homer’s or drinking the koolaid or whatever. I am a bit surprised that the clippers are not bigger favorites but that list generally makes sense. The lakers have what many people consider to be two top 5 players in the nba.

Also not sure how rockets could be much lower they upgraded in nostnpost people’s eyes from Paul to Westbrook and were considered the second or third best team through almost all of the entire last season.

Finally 76ers with popular star players like Simmons and embiid are actually a big public play so I think you inadvertently made an argument on why they should probably be even longer shots to win the chip.
I'm not making fan boy arguments.  If you don't think my reasoning is sound refute it.  If you don't think the stats I mention present an accurate picture refute them. 

I thought the Celtics and Raptors were much tougher matchups for the Sixers than the Bucks.  They had players to defend Embiid and they could exploit Redick's defensive deficiencies better than the Bucks.  Now with the Celtics and Raptors taking big steps back and the Bucks taking a small step back I think the Sixers are in much better position even though they've had a significant personnel turnover. 

As an aside has anyone had a more challenging job than Coach Brown? 
Having to go through the tanking years.  Having to deal with all the injuries.  Having to deal with the Colangelo fiasco.  Then last season he has to deal with a major personnel trade early in the season and another one at the deadline.  Now he's got another major personnel change to deal with which is probably going to require substantial changes to their offensive schemes. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #97 on: July 19, 2019, 07:08:20 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.
Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks
Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include
Typical.  Can't make a cogent argument so get petty.  Betting odds aren't objective.  They're geared to get people to bet like the gambling houses want them too taking into account people's prejudices and tendencies. 

Updated odds to win 2019-20 NBA title @CaesarsPalace books:
Lakers +350
Clippers +400
Bucks +450
Rockets +700
76ers +800
Warriors +1300
Jazz +1400
Celtics +2000
Nets +2000
Nuggets +2000

I don't think an objective assessment would have Lakers with the best championships odds and I certainly don't think the Rockets should be 4th best odds.  Harden/Westbrook looks like a terrible fit.

What did I say that was petty. You have called yourself a huge
Embiid fan going back to college? Have you not said this a bunch of times? It’s pretty common knowledge that people are not as objective about the things they are super big fans of. You yourself have called a bunch of people on here Homer’s or drinking the koolaid or whatever. I am a bit surprised that the clippers are not bigger favorites but that list generally makes sense. The lakers have what many people consider to be two top 5 players in the nba.

Also not sure how rockets could be much lower they upgraded in nostnpost people’s eyes from Paul to Westbrook and were considered the second or third best team through almost all of the entire last season.

Finally 76ers with popular star players like Simmons and embiid are actually a big public play so I think you inadvertently made an argument on why they should probably be even longer shots to win the chip.
I'm not making fan boy arguments.  If you don't think my reasoning is sound refute it.  If you don't think the stats I mention present an accurate picture refute them. 

I thought the Celtics and Raptors were much tougher matchups for the Sixers than the Bucks.  They had players to defend Embiid and they could exploit Redick's defensive deficiencies better than the Bucks.  Now with the Celtics and Raptors taking big steps back and the Bucks taking a small step back I think the Sixers are in much better position even though they've had a significant personnel turnover. 

As an aside has anyone had a more challenging job than Coach Brown? 
Having to go through the tanking years.  Having to deal with all the injuries.  Having to deal with the Colangelo fiasco.  Then last season he has to deal with a major personnel trade early in the season and another one at the deadline.  Now he's got another major personnel change to deal with which is probably going to require substantial changes to their offensive schemes.

I mean there are not really any arguments or stats we can really provide given that this is basically a completely new team that has not every played together. They will have two new starters, and a third starter that was only with the team for about 30 games. So we both have opinions on how it will work and how good they will be. Your opinion is naturally going to be a bit more optimistic if you are a fan of them and rooting for one of their players. My opinion on this?

I am not sure who on their team is taking all the off the dribble 3's and not set 3's that Reddick was taking for them the last few years (Reddick shot 8 a game last year!). Horford can hit threes for example, but he has a pretty slow release (me and my brother always referred to it as loading the tripod when he was on the celtics). He also went down quite a bit on 3's last year (nearly 7% from the year before). Is this just variance, or is it a sign of aging or related to his knee injury? If he goes down a few more % points he is below where Smart was last year. Now on the defensive end he has the potential to really really help them. They could be so good at defense that it doesn't matter if they are crappy at 3's. I am not sure how they will do against a bigger team. If the Lakers have Cousins, James and Davis on the floor is ben simmons guarding James? Is Horford trying to keep up with Davis?

I also think a big part of playoff basketball is having a guard/wing that can break people down off the dribble and offer layups, pullups and foul shots. Who is doing this for them down 1 in a playoff game with 20 seconds left. This has been huge for teams that have been successful in the playoffs recently. The Warriors had Durant, curry and Klay that could all do this. The Raptors had Leonard. The Bucks have Giannis. Embiid and Horford are probably not good for these situations, it is easier to double a big and embiid turns it over a lot in these situations. Horford obviously has never done this on his time with the Celtics. Simmons can't do it without a jumpshot (and is also a complete liability from the line). So you are left with Tobias Harris as your key guy to do this? That doesn't seem to be a recipe for success. They definitely will miss Butler in that regard.

I think they will be a really good team, especially next year if Horford is similar to this past year. However, I don't like them for playoff basketball. If we get one more big (not even a star, but someone like adams), i think we could take them out ourselves. Ill also add I don't think Brown is a good x's and o's coach and that is also a disadvantage for them in playoffs.

If they had ran back the same team with reddick and butler, I do think they would have won the east this year.

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #98 on: July 19, 2019, 07:20:43 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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we can try and talk ourselfs out of missing him. But i an't lying ,  i personally think think we ll be regretting his leaving a bunch . 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #99 on: July 19, 2019, 08:44:23 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Either way the Sixers and the Bucks are clearly ahead of everyone else in the East, so keeping or adding solid supporting members even at great long term cost had to be the way for them to go for them.  You have to go for the title when you have a realistic shot at it.

They are?

Embiid is a terrible leader who can't stay healthy, Simmons consistently chokes come playoff time, adding Horford will only further clog up the paint (which was already too clogged up as it is).  They lost the only closer and "alpha" guy on the team (Butler).  They also lost their best outside shooter (Reddick) - a guy who's mere presence was crucial in creating the space for Simmons and Embiid to operate.

I think people are dramatically underestimating the importance that Reddick and Butler had on that team last season.  It was the first time the Sixers have ever shown serious competitiveness in the playoffs, and the sole reason for that was the addition of Jimmy butler - who averaged 22 / 7 / 6 through that series with the Raptors and gave the Sixers the toughness and winners mentality that they needed to have a fighting chance.  Now Butler is gone.

The Bucks should be way better then the Sixers this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers are better.  I wouldn't even be shocked if the Celtics are better.
Embiid is the Sixers alpha dog.  His on/off numbers were ridiculous in the Toronto series (+12.9 when he was on court, -15.6 when he was off court).  In game 7, the Sixers were +10 in the 45 minutes Embiid was on court and -12 in the 3 minutes he was off court.   

The Bucks got worse by losing Brogdon and they have no one to defend Embiid. The Sixers should matchup really well against them.   

Simmons/Richardson/Harris/Horford/Embiid  vs. 
Bledsoe/Mathews/Middleton/Giannis/B. Lopez 

I expect the Bucks to win the regular season by quite a bit but then reality will hit in the playoffs.

You are consistently high on the 76ers and you very well could be right. I do think it is a fair take to think losing Reddick and butler they will be worse than adding Horford and Richardson. They have a lot of wildcards like Simmons or zaire that could make them incredible, but they are about 10-1 to win the league compared to 5-1 for the bucks
Betting odds are betting odds.  Don't see a reason to put much weight in them (e.g. Houston's betting odds are a lot higher than reality).  The East is significantly weaker.  Its debatable how the Sixers compare to last season but the Raptors, Celtics and even Bucks are worse.  No one on here has even attempted to refute my assertion that the Sixers should match up very well against the Bucks. 

There's another thread on here about the Ewing Theory and the Celtics.  I think there's a good chance it applies to Butler and the Sixers.  Harris and Simmons should be better without Butler.  Losing Redick certainly hurts their offense but it helps their defense.  Horford being able to backup Embiid should be huge for them.  The Sixers 2019 numbers with Embiid off the court weren't pretty. 

                                 Min       OffRtg       DefRtg      NetRtg
Regular (Embiid on)    2154     112.5        104.9         7.6
Regular (Embiid off)    1807     107.0        110.5        -3.5
Playoff  (Embiid on)     334        113.8        93.0         20.8   
Playoff  (Embiid off)     242         98.5        120.1        -21.6

Betting odds  are a bit more objective than self proclaimed embiid fan boys. That’s is why it is worth while to include
Typical.  Can't make a cogent argument so get petty.  Betting odds aren't objective.  They're geared to get people to bet like the gambling houses want them too taking into account people's prejudices and tendencies. 

Updated odds to win 2019-20 NBA title @CaesarsPalace books:
Lakers +350
Clippers +400
Bucks +450
Rockets +700
76ers +800
Warriors +1300
Jazz +1400
Celtics +2000
Nets +2000
Nuggets +2000

I don't think an objective assessment would have Lakers with the best championships odds and I certainly don't think the Rockets should be 4th best odds.  Harden/Westbrook looks like a terrible fit.

What did I say that was petty. You have called yourself a huge
Embiid fan going back to college? Have you not said this a bunch of times? It’s pretty common knowledge that people are not as objective about the things they are super big fans of. You yourself have called a bunch of people on here Homer’s or drinking the koolaid or whatever. I am a bit surprised that the clippers are not bigger favorites but that list generally makes sense. The lakers have what many people consider to be two top 5 players in the nba.

Also not sure how rockets could be much lower they upgraded in nostnpost people’s eyes from Paul to Westbrook and were considered the second or third best team through almost all of the entire last season.

Finally 76ers with popular star players like Simmons and embiid are actually a big public play so I think you inadvertently made an argument on why they should probably be even longer shots to win the chip.
I'm not making fan boy arguments.  If you don't think my reasoning is sound refute it.  If you don't think the stats I mention present an accurate picture refute them. 

I thought the Celtics and Raptors were much tougher matchups for the Sixers than the Bucks.  They had players to defend Embiid and they could exploit Redick's defensive deficiencies better than the Bucks.  Now with the Celtics and Raptors taking big steps back and the Bucks taking a small step back I think the Sixers are in much better position even though they've had a significant personnel turnover. 

As an aside has anyone had a more challenging job than Coach Brown? 
Having to go through the tanking years.  Having to deal with all the injuries.  Having to deal with the Colangelo fiasco.  Then last season he has to deal with a major personnel trade early in the season and another one at the deadline.  Now he's got another major personnel change to deal with which is probably going to require substantial changes to their offensive schemes.

I mean there are not really any arguments or stats we can really provide given that this is basically a completely new team that has not every played together. They will have two new starters, and a third starter that was only with the team for about 30 games. So we both have opinions on how it will work and how good they will be. Your opinion is naturally going to be a bit more optimistic if you are a fan of them and rooting for one of their players. My opinion on this?

I am not sure who on their team is taking all the off the dribble 3's and not set 3's that Reddick was taking for them the last few years (Reddick shot 8 a game last year!). Horford can hit threes for example, but he has a pretty slow release (me and my brother always referred to it as loading the tripod when he was on the celtics). He also went down quite a bit on 3's last year (nearly 7% from the year before). Is this just variance, or is it a sign of aging or related to his knee injury? If he goes down a few more % points he is below where Smart was last year. Now on the defensive end he has the potential to really really help them. They could be so good at defense that it doesn't matter if they are crappy at 3's. I am not sure how they will do against a bigger team. If the Lakers have Cousins, James and Davis on the floor is ben simmons guarding James? Is Horford trying to keep up with Davis?

I also think a big part of playoff basketball is having a guard/wing that can break people down off the dribble and offer layups, pullups and foul shots. Who is doing this for them down 1 in a playoff game with 20 seconds left. This has been huge for teams that have been successful in the playoffs recently. The Warriors had Durant, curry and Klay that could all do this. The Raptors had Leonard. The Bucks have Giannis. Embiid and Horford are probably not good for these situations, it is easier to double a big and embiid turns it over a lot in these situations. Horford obviously has never done this on his time with the Celtics. Simmons can't do it without a jumpshot (and is also a complete liability from the line). So you are left with Tobias Harris as your key guy to do this? That doesn't seem to be a recipe for success. They definitely will miss Butler in that regard.

I think they will be a really good team, especially next year if Horford is similar to this past year. However, I don't like them for playoff basketball. If we get one more big (not even a star, but someone like adams), i think we could take them out ourselves. Ill also add I don't think Brown is a good x's and o's coach and that is also a disadvantage for them in playoffs.

If they had ran back the same team with reddick and butler, I do think they would have won the east this year.
I think the Sixers are a better playoff team than regular season team.  All the rest days really helps them.  The shortened rotation really helps them.  There defense should be tremendous.  I think Harris and Simmons will be better without Butler. 

In regards to shooting 3s, Richardson shot 6.3 per game.  While his overall percentage was 35.7%, he shot over 38% on catch and shoot 3s.  Harris numbers with the Sixers were essentially the same as with the clippers except for a huge nose dive in 3pt shooting (43.4 to 32.6) with roughly 5 attempts per game.  I've seen no explanation for the drop but they clearly need to figure it out an address it.  Redick's shooting was huge for the Sixers and he was a perfect fit with Embiid.  Butler on the other if memory serves was ~32% on catch and shoot 3s with less than 2 per game.  As far as closing goes, I think they'll spread the load and take advantage of mismatches.  Harris and Richardson may not have elite offensive skills but they've got good versatile skill sets.   

Not sure how we'd get a good big but if we did I'd probably put us as more of a threat to the Sixers than the Bucks especially with improvement from Hayward.   Other than Giannis, the Bucks aren't a scary team.  The Sixers can use Horford and Embiid to slow down Giannis.  Simmons can clamp down on Middleton.  Bledsoe, Mathews and Lopez aren't going to beat you.  The Bucks have no one to defend Embiid. 

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #100 on: July 20, 2019, 12:42:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence. 
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 01:29:00 PM by Moranis »
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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #101 on: July 20, 2019, 01:33:44 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 02:03:59 PM by celticsclay »

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #102 on: July 20, 2019, 02:05:57 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.
Very doubtful that Embiid plays 70 games.  Even Embiid himself is talking load management.  Also I think Embiid is significantly under valued.  The voters picked Jokic 1st team all NBA center and Jokic finished 4th in MVP voting well ahead of Embiid in 7th.  Embiid finished a distant 4th to Gobert for DPOY.  AD is going to be even more overhyped now that he's a Laker.  Until Embiid is widely acknowledged as the best big he's got no shot at MVP.   

Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #103 on: July 20, 2019, 09:06:29 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year. 
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Re: Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?
« Reply #104 on: July 20, 2019, 11:52:15 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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I actually think Embiid is the front runner for MVP this year or at least top 2 along with Giannis (I'd peg Curry a close 3rd).  I think he will have plenty of opportunities to show his value on a team that is his, but is also very good.  That is basically how Giannis won it this year, and I expect Embiid to have the healthiest season of his career on a team more suited for his strengths.  Plus, I think the Sixers bump up to 55+ wins.

He is not going to play enough games to be in the conversation. They have already said he is going to have Lola’s management after running him into the ground. I’m sure this is part of the reason they got Horford. If you really believe this though you could make a fortune cause he is not even listed as a serious candidate https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mvp-odds-warriors-165728776.html
I think he gets 70 games which I think is enough.  He played 64 games and finished 7th last year.  I think he finishes pretty easily ahead of George this year and maybe Harden just because of their new teammates.  I don't think Kawhi, Davis, or Lebron jumps ahead of him either.  He was statistically better than Lillard and Jokic, they just played far more games and I don't think people really understood just how much better the Sixers were with Embiid on the court then when he was off it.  So I do think his only real competition is Giannis and Curry.  He easily could be 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if he is worse than that without an extended absence.

I mean they (both the front office and embid himself) have said they are going to manage his minutes more this year specifically referencing how Leonard was handled. On the heels of this Him setting a career high in minutes and games in the year they also sign horford and added oquinn would be a pretty wild turn of events.
They can manage his minutes and games better than they did and he can still play 70 games.  For example, he played big minutes in several back to back games last year.  I don't think that happens this year.  He didn't miss his first game until game 27, through 54 games he had only missed 4 games.  He played 37 minutes in game 53 and the very next night played 34 more and then was out for 8 straight games.  The reality is they didn't manage his games or minutes well at all last year.  They can manage them much better this year and he can still play more games then he did last year.
If I'm the Sixers when I get the schedule, I'd find all the B2Bs and layout how it would look with neither Embiid or Horford playing both games (i.e. separate them for B2Bs).  There are no B2Bs in the playoffs so no reason for either of them to do B2Bs in the regular season.