I agree with the OP that the current roster is short of being a contender unless everything breaks just right.
That said, I do see more talent and upside.
* Brown and Tatum are a couple years younger - room to grow.
* Comparing JB to Walker sells JB too short. Walker was a less efficient shooter than Smart and used a ton of possessions. Brown’s scoring ability is already very good, and his ceiling, if he reaches it, is much higher. He has played big in big games and we need his fire and focus.
* Rob Williams, if he stays healthy, is our center and Al is the backup. Compare that to Tony Battie, Mark Blount, and Vitaly Potapenko. I mean…
*Smart is underrated as our starting point guard and Schroeder, while not in our future plans, is a pretty solid backup. Compare to: Tony Delk, Bimbo Coles, and JR Bremer.
* We have a front office that isn’t going to do things like trade decent role players for Vin Baker, or send Joe Johnson out for Rogers and Delk. Instead, we’re in solid position to be players for a third star next year and we took a bunch of low-risk possible upside plays for this year.
* There are at least four players under contract - Richardson, Nesmith, Pritchard, and Langford (in that order) who might establish value as rotation players this year.
Net, I don’t think we contend this year unless every single thing breaks our way, which I’m not expecting. But this team is better positioned to improve.