Author Topic: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?  (Read 6996 times)

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Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« on: July 16, 2021, 01:23:39 PM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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It’s been a while since the Celtics didn’t have a 1st round pick in the draft (baring Brad pulling one out of his hat).

A few teams have multiple 1st this year, and Houston and Oklahoma have stockpiles of picks over the next several seasons. Even more than Ainge had in his draft vault!

Danny ended up getting stuck with a bunch of those. Unable to consolidate them or trade for a star, he was forced into draft-and-stash and other less less favorable options.

This looks like a good, solid draft. Those teams probably make their picks this year, but what about 2022-24? Who gets stuck holding a bunch of picks they don’t have roster spots for? Who’s able to pick up some vets or kick the pick down the line in order to not waste it?

Trader Danny had a tough time doing that. Did these GMs mortgage their future for potential? Did they back themselves into a corner hoarding assets? Will it become someone else’s problem when they get fired?

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2021, 01:37:14 PM »

Offline Celtics2021

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2021, 01:54:05 PM »

Offline footey

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Expect them to try to consolidate to move up in draft; not sure there will be takers. They may have to overpay, but could be worth it for the right guy. Will be hard to trade up into top 4 of this draft.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2021, 01:55:02 PM »

Offline Celtics2021

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Expect them to try to consolidate to move up in draft; not sure there will be takers. They may have to overpay, but could be worth it for the right guy. Will be hard to trade up into top 4 of this draft.

Of course they'll try to consolidate.  That's obvious, but as we found when we had all those picks, and as this thread is about, that is easier said than done when everyone knows you need to consolidate.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2021, 01:59:03 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Agreed. 

We will see how Presti approaches it.

I think that Danny’s problem was that he hoarded assets for a big trade, rather than being willing to package them for slightly better assets.

For instance, instead of Terry Rozier in 2015, what if Danny offers some combination of the #16, #28, and #33 plus the Dallas pick and/or our 2016 #1 for the 13th pick?  Devin Booker would have been franchise changing. 

I guess in fairness to Ainge that draft, he did try to desperately trade up to number 10 for Justice Winslow, reportedly including a Brooklyn pick.  It’s just interesting to me that Danny was willing to overpay there, but would not do so in other situations.


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Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2021, 02:02:41 PM »

Offline Celtics2021

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Agreed. 

We will see how Presti approaches it.

I think that Danny’s problem was that he hoarded assets for a big trade, rather than being willing to package them for slightly better assets.

For instance, instead of Terry Rozier in 2015, what if Danny offers some combination of the #16, #28, and #33 plus the Dallas pick and/or our 2016 #1 for the 13th pick?  Devin Booker would have been franchise changing. 

I guess in fairness to Ainge that draft, he did try to desperately trade up to number 10 for Justice Winslow, reportedly including a Brooklyn pick.  It’s just interesting to me that Danny was willing to overpay there, but would not do so in other situations.

Wasn't that the Justise Winslow draft, where the C's couldn't move up 6 spots despite offering four 1sts, including an unprotected Brooklyn pick?

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2021, 02:06:23 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Agreed. 

We will see how Presti approaches it.

I think that Danny’s problem was that he hoarded assets for a big trade, rather than being willing to package them for slightly better assets.

For instance, instead of Terry Rozier in 2015, what if Danny offers some combination of the #16, #28, and #33 plus the Dallas pick and/or our 2016 #1 for the 13th pick?  Devin Booker would have been franchise changing. 

I guess in fairness to Ainge that draft, he did try to desperately trade up to number 10 for Justice Winslow, reportedly including a Brooklyn pick.  It’s just interesting to me that Danny was willing to overpay there, but would not do so in other situations.

Wasn't that the Justise Winslow draft, where the C's couldn't move up 6 spots despite offering four 1sts, including an unprotected Brooklyn pick?

Last paragraph. ;)



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Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2021, 02:08:04 PM »

Offline Celtics2021

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.

Agreed. 

We will see how Presti approaches it.

I think that Danny’s problem was that he hoarded assets for a big trade, rather than being willing to package them for slightly better assets.

For instance, instead of Terry Rozier in 2015, what if Danny offers some combination of the #16, #28, and #33 plus the Dallas pick and/or our 2016 #1 for the 13th pick?  Devin Booker would have been franchise changing. 

I guess in fairness to Ainge that draft, he did try to desperately trade up to number 10 for Justice Winslow, reportedly including a Brooklyn pick.  It’s just interesting to me that Danny was willing to overpay there, but would not do so in other situations.

Wasn't that the Justise Winslow draft, where the C's couldn't move up 6 spots despite offering four 1sts, including an unprotected Brooklyn pick?

Last paragraph. ;)

 :-[

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2021, 02:11:25 PM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.
Agreed. 

We will see how Presti approaches it.

I think that Danny’s problem was that he hoarded assets for a big trade, rather than being willing to package them for slightly better assets.

For instance, instead of Terry Rozier in 2015, what if Danny offers some combination of the #16, #28, and #33 plus the Dallas pick and/or our 2016 #1 for the 13th pick?  Devin Booker would have been franchise changing. 

I guess in fairness to Ainge that draft, he did try to desperately trade up to number 10 for Justice Winslow, reportedly including a Brooklyn pick.  It’s just interesting to me that Danny was willing to overpay there, but would not do so in other situations.

Devin Booker would have been a great result, but that sounds like an overpayment to move from 16 to 13. Danny caught a lot of flack for that rumored Winslow offer from the draft slot evaluators. Without knowing what Booker would turn into there would have been a lot of wailing and hand wringing over that offer. If he even picks Booker in that draft.

Danny reportedly hated overpaying for assets. When he moved up to pick Kelly Olynyk, I was sure he was moving up to grab Giannis because he’d heard a rumor that he’d loose him if he didn’t. And then he selected Kelly O instead. Overpayment!

I think there’s going to be plenty of overpayment happening to get out from underneath all those picks.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2021, 08:00:34 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.
Yeah, they've got an absurd amount of picks to try and deal with. Really interesting to see where they go, but they definitely need some talent
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2021, 09:01:54 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.
Yeah, they've got an absurd amount of picks to try and deal with. Really interesting to see where they go, but they definitely need some talent
I think Presti must be planning to flip all those picks for a few really good players on long deals knowing OKC isn't a FA destination and will need to overpay a bit to acquire those good players on long deals -- most likely on teams that have only 1 really good player.   

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2021, 10:12:44 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.
Yeah, they've got an absurd amount of picks to try and deal with. Really interesting to see where they go, but they definitely need some talent
I think Presti must be planning to flip all those picks for a few really good players on long deals knowing OKC isn't a FA destination and will need to overpay a bit to acquire those good players on long deals -- most likely on teams that have only 1 really good player.   
Yeah, I think trying to use picks to acquire All-Star level players on poor franchises is really the only way they can go, unless a max FA randomly wants in
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2021, 10:24:35 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.
Yeah, they've got an absurd amount of picks to try and deal with. Really interesting to see where they go, but they definitely need some talent
I think Presti must be planning to flip all those picks for a few really good players on long deals knowing OKC isn't a FA destination and will need to overpay a bit to acquire those good players on long deals -- most likely on teams that have only 1 really good player.   
Yeah, I think trying to use picks to acquire All-Star level players on poor franchises is really the only way they can go, unless a max FA randomly wants in
he might be hoping to land a couple in trades and use that to lure in a third top player

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2021, 10:31:48 PM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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It will be interesting to see if Presti can consolidate the 16th and 18th picks this year. It might be a little telling in comparison to what Ainge ended up doing.

If you can’t:
Do you risk bringing in 3 rookies?
Do you try a draft and stash by overdrafting the slot for someone that will stay in Europe for a season or two?
Will people call you out for overvaluing those picks if you can’t make a deal?

If you can:
Did he have to overpay to do it?
Does it show that Danny could have made deals if he hadn’t overvalued his picks?
Does it show that rival GMs didn’t want to deal with Danny?

I think he’s going to be making more picks than he wants to, or trading a bunch away to get some talent around SGA. Kemba’s contract could come in handy there.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2021, 10:35:40 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I think OKC is definitely on the stuck path.  They have 15 picks, or the equivalent of an entire roster, the next 3 drafts.  Then they have another 15 picks the following two drafts from that.  It’s going to be very difficult to consolidate that many picks.
Yeah, they've got an absurd amount of picks to try and deal with. Really interesting to see where they go, but they definitely need some talent
I think Presti must be planning to flip all those picks for a few really good players on long deals knowing OKC isn't a FA destination and will need to overpay a bit to acquire those good players on long deals -- most likely on teams that have only 1 really good player.   
Yeah, I think trying to use picks to acquire All-Star level players on poor franchises is really the only way they can go, unless a max FA randomly wants in
he might be hoping to land a couple in trades and use that to lure in a third top player
It's risky, but it's all he can do with something like 30 picks over the next half-decade.

I reckon Beal would have to be one of their targets, and Siakam. Those kind of guys who aren't the top of the top but are on garbage teams
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)