Author Topic: 2021 Draft  (Read 68061 times)

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Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #360 on: July 21, 2021, 10:06:36 PM »

Offline liam

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Here's a good list of sleeper picks including my draft binkie Marcus Garrett:



https://www.lineups.com/articles/top-10-nba-draft-sleeper-picks/
I think you can get him as a free agent. His offensive game is non-existent. Good team player and upper classman (which I like this year) but there’s better value to be had in this draft.

Marcus Garrett is an elite defender. His Offense needs work but he shot FG%45.9 FG3% 34.8 eFG%50.4 with 3.7 assists and 4.6 TRB FT% 80, 11 points a game. Garrett has a better 3 pt% than Marcus Smart coming into the league.
I know you draftniks love using college stats to back some of your arguments for late 1st and 2nd round prospects, but you have to realize that almost all college stats do not translate to similar success in the pros.

Athleticism, age, BBIQ, dribbling skills, passing skills, court vision, shooting form, in the post footwork, work ethic, box out ability, etc. are way, way more important.

I seriously doubt Garrett has anything close to the success in the pros as he did at Kansas, if he makes the pros. I kinda doubt he gets drafted. He is most likely a two-way contract guy....maybe

I'd really like to compare Garrett to Matisse Thybulle:

Garrett shot FG%45.9 FG3% 34.8 eFG%54.4 with 3.7 assists and 4.6 TRB FT% 80, 11 points a game

Matisse Thybulle shot  FG%42.9 FG3% 35.8 eFG%52.2 with 2.0 assists and 3.1 TRB FT% 72, 9.2 points a game


Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #361 on: July 21, 2021, 11:45:44 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Here's a good list of sleeper picks including my draft binkie Marcus Garrett:



https://www.lineups.com/articles/top-10-nba-draft-sleeper-picks/
I think you can get him as a free agent. His offensive game is non-existent. Good team player and upper classman (which I like this year) but there’s better value to be had in this draft.

Marcus Garrett is an elite defender. His Offense needs work but he shot FG%45.9 FG3% 34.8 eFG%50.4 with 3.7 assists and 4.6 TRB FT% 80, 11 points a game. Garrett has a better 3 pt% than Marcus Smart coming into the league.
I know you draftniks love using college stats to back some of your arguments for late 1st and 2nd round prospects, but you have to realize that almost all college stats do not translate to similar success in the pros.

Athleticism, age, BBIQ, dribbling skills, passing skills, court vision, shooting form, in the post footwork, work ethic, box out ability, etc. are way, way more important.

I seriously doubt Garrett has anything close to the success in the pros as he did at Kansas, if he makes the pros. I kinda doubt he gets drafted. He is most likely a two-way contract guy....maybe

I'd really like to compare Garrett to Matisse Thybulle:

Garrett shot FG%45.9 FG3% 34.8 eFG%54.4 with 3.7 assists and 4.6 TRB FT% 80, 11 points a game

Matisse Thybulle shot  FG%42.9 FG3% 35.8 eFG%52.2 with 2.0 assists and 3.1 TRB FT% 72, 9.2 points a game
Garrett isn't remotely as disruptive on defence. Senior year, Thybulle averaged 3.5 steals and 2.3 blocks - Garrett averaged 1.6 steals and 0.3 blocks.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #362 on: July 22, 2021, 07:47:17 AM »

Offline boscel33

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Couple of G Leaguers that have been getting mocked to the C's.  One that I like is Nix is intriguing.  Five-star PG out of Anchorage who's 6'5".  He committed to play for UCLA over schools such as Alabama, Kansas, Kentucky and Maryland.

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2021/07/21/celtics-prospects-2021-nba-draft/
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Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #363 on: July 22, 2021, 09:17:12 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Couple of G Leaguers that have been getting mocked to the C's.  One that I like is Nix is intriguing.  Five-star PG out of Anchorage who's 6'5".  He committed to play for UCLA over schools such as Alabama, Kansas, Kentucky and Maryland.

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2021/07/21/celtics-prospects-2021-nba-draft/

As a pass first pg with really good size Nix is an interesting option. My fear with Nix is that he has two scary negatives going against him. Poor outside shooting and potential conditioning issues. He was reported to be in much better shape for the combine then he was in the G-league and still came in as the highest BF% pg in years. Going in the second round my keep him from getting comfortable with 1st round money but I still would worry about his willingness to stay in shape.

Jason Preston seems like a very similare type of player without the same issues.
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Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #364 on: July 29, 2021, 12:15:55 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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Its draft day and as more information is coming to light so interesting rumors have surfaced. Chad Ford is speculated that Wagner could go #7 to GS and Z Williams could climb all the way to the Magic at #8.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Grizz end up trading #10 for #8 with Kuminga going to the Grizz and Z Williams going to the Magic.

Another surprise for me is the lack of Springer buzz. Either teams like him and are keeping quiet or there is a real chance he is a fringe 1st round pick. If I'm Steven's I would really be pushing to trade Thompson or if need be (this will be unpopular) R Williams to draft Springer.  If it is a Time Lord based deal maybe Williams to Lakers for #22 and a future 2nd? If Springer falls early 2nd maybe Thompson to Knicks for #32?

I also like that a big for Springer trade would allow the Cs to take a shot on a big man ( a 5 or a 4/5) at #45. Quata could be a great option.
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Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #365 on: July 29, 2021, 01:03:55 PM »

Offline boscel33

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Keith Smith said on Twitter:

"Reminder: the NBA locks the draft board at 3:00 PM ET. That means no trades for 2021 draft picks can be made official after 3:00 PM ET until the draft officially starts.

In other words: commence hat silliness after 3:00 PM ET!"
"There's sharks and minnows in this world. If you don't know which you are, you ain't a shark."

Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #366 on: February 08, 2024, 03:14:48 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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In looking for indicators to help predicting prospect success I came up with the following hypothesis to test.       
      
"Non bigs with at least average positional size and ESPN recruiting rankings above a 94 are the safest group to draft from"       
      
Looking at prospects from 2014-2018 high school classes (number is their ESPN grade)       
      
2014   T Jones   97
2014   E Mudiay   97
2014   S Johnson   97
2014   J Jackson   97
2014   T Pinson   96

2014   K Oubre   96
2014   D Russell   96
2014   I Whitehead   95
2014   J Winslow   95
2014   J Berry   94
2015   B Simmons   97
2015   B Ingram   96
2015   J Brown   96
2016   J Jackson   97
2016   J Tatum   97
2016   L Ball   96
2016   D Fox   96
2016   M Fultz   96
2016   M Monk   96
2016   F Jackson   96
2016   T Ferguson   94
2016   J Isaac   94
2017   M Porter   97
2017   T Duval   96
2017   C Sexton   95
2017   G Trent   95
2017   K Knox   95
2018   R Barret   96
2018   C Reddish   95
2018   R Langford   95
2018   N Little   95
2018   K Johnson   94
2018   Q Grimes   94 (still in NCAA)
2018   A Simmons   94
      
Obviously there are a range of outcomes and many of these prospects have yet to reach their ceilings but of the 33 listed (Grimes isnt in NBA yet) I would only count 5 (Duval, Berry, Pinson, Whitehead, and Jackson) as non NBA players. Others like Langford, Little, Knox, and Ferguson I am not counting as busts because they have shown glimpses of NBA potential. Of those 33 players I count 12 (Russell, Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Tatum, Ball, Fox, Fultz, Isaac, Porter, Sexton, and Barrett) as having either already made an allstar game or they have the clear potential to make an allstar team or be a high level starter.       
      
      
Looking at the current NBA draft class with the #16 pick the Cs are projected in most mocks to have a few players available who fit this criteria.


J Johnson, ESPN 94 some mocks have him sliding but I would be shocked to see him outiside the top 10.

J Springer, ESPN 94 he is quickly becoming my favorite possible pick for the Cs. He is the youngest American in the draft, has great positional size and while not super explosive he is an elite lateral athlete. Waiting for his development is not idea but a Jrue Holiday like ceiling is not out of the range of possibilities for Springer. 

Z Williams, ESPN 95 after a lot of hype he showed flashes at Stanford but in general he disappointed. His shooting % and lack of strength worry me. The lack of strength makes him an unlikely Celtics pick but I would still be fine with the gamble at #16.

BJ Boston, ESPN 96 my feelings on Williams are the same for Boston. He disappointed on college but given the year we just had with Covid I would still make the gamble at #16 or be willing to trade back into the 20s to try to land him.

J Christopher ESPN 95 he had an inconsistent season and was limited to 15 games but showed glimpses of being an NBA scorer. Watching his game vs Villinova it isn't a stretch to imagine his ceiling be a 20ppg NBA player. 

* G Brown ESPN 95 he is a tougher one to predict in that he may be more of a PF then a wing in the NBA and will need to add strength to make that work. Of the 6 prospects I have listed I would gibe Brown both the highest ceiling and the lowest floor. 6'9 super athletes who can shoot the 3 are so valuable in the NBA that he is worth the gamble but I can see his development taking a while and the team will have to be patient.

Springer!
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Re: 2021 Draft
« Reply #367 on: February 08, 2024, 03:25:34 PM »

Offline liam

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In looking for indicators to help predicting prospect success I came up with the following hypothesis to test.       
      
"Non bigs with at least average positional size and ESPN recruiting rankings above a 94 are the safest group to draft from"       
      
Looking at prospects from 2014-2018 high school classes (number is their ESPN grade)       
      
2014   T Jones   97
2014   E Mudiay   97
2014   S Johnson   97
2014   J Jackson   97
2014   T Pinson   96

2014   K Oubre   96
2014   D Russell   96
2014   I Whitehead   95
2014   J Winslow   95
2014   J Berry   94
2015   B Simmons   97
2015   B Ingram   96
2015   J Brown   96
2016   J Jackson   97
2016   J Tatum   97
2016   L Ball   96
2016   D Fox   96
2016   M Fultz   96
2016   M Monk   96
2016   F Jackson   96
2016   T Ferguson   94
2016   J Isaac   94
2017   M Porter   97
2017   T Duval   96
2017   C Sexton   95
2017   G Trent   95
2017   K Knox   95
2018   R Barret   96
2018   C Reddish   95
2018   R Langford   95
2018   N Little   95
2018   K Johnson   94
2018   Q Grimes   94 (still in NCAA)
2018   A Simmons   94
      
Obviously there are a range of outcomes and many of these prospects have yet to reach their ceilings but of the 33 listed (Grimes isnt in NBA yet) I would only count 5 (Duval, Berry, Pinson, Whitehead, and Jackson) as non NBA players. Others like Langford, Little, Knox, and Ferguson I am not counting as busts because they have shown glimpses of NBA potential. Of those 33 players I count 12 (Russell, Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Tatum, Ball, Fox, Fultz, Isaac, Porter, Sexton, and Barrett) as having either already made an allstar game or they have the clear potential to make an allstar team or be a high level starter.       
      
      
Looking at the current NBA draft class with the #16 pick the Cs are projected in most mocks to have a few players available who fit this criteria.


J Johnson, ESPN 94 some mocks have him sliding but I would be shocked to see him outiside the top 10.

J Springer, ESPN 94 he is quickly becoming my favorite possible pick for the Cs. He is the youngest American in the draft, has great positional size and while not super explosive he is an elite lateral athlete. Waiting for his development is not idea but a Jrue Holiday like ceiling is not out of the range of possibilities for Springer. 

Z Williams, ESPN 95 after a lot of hype he showed flashes at Stanford but in general he disappointed. His shooting % and lack of strength worry me. The lack of strength makes him an unlikely Celtics pick but I would still be fine with the gamble at #16.

BJ Boston, ESPN 96 my feelings on Williams are the same for Boston. He disappointed on college but given the year we just had with Covid I would still make the gamble at #16 or be willing to trade back into the 20s to try to land him.

J Christopher ESPN 95 he had an inconsistent season and was limited to 15 games but showed glimpses of being an NBA scorer. Watching his game vs Villinova it isn't a stretch to imagine his ceiling be a 20ppg NBA player. 

* G Brown ESPN 95 he is a tougher one to predict in that he may be more of a PF then a wing in the NBA and will need to add strength to make that work. Of the 6 prospects I have listed I would gibe Brown both the highest ceiling and the lowest floor. 6'9 super athletes who can shoot the 3 are so valuable in the NBA that he is worth the gamble but I can see his development taking a while and the team will have to be patient.

Springer!

This kid is a nice prospect.