Author Topic: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?  (Read 5268 times)

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Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« on: October 31, 2020, 11:43:17 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Still lot of season left, but my alma mater the Cincinnati Bearcats entered today at 7th in the country coming off of a dominant win over a ranked and unbeaten SMU on the road the week before.  They absolutely throttled Memphis today, which was probably their most difficult game left on the schedule (they do close at Tulsa which could be a tough out).  6th ranked Oklahoma State lost today, so now the Big 12 can't have an unbeaten team and UC will almost certainly move up to 6th.  With Notre Dame fully in the ACC for this year only and playing Clemson next week a possible road block is gone.  The Pac 12 is only playing 6 games and haven't even started yet and they don't appear to have any dominant teams on paper.  It seems clear that the Clemson/ND winner will more than likely win out and make the playoffs (especially if it is Clemson w/o Lawrence), it appears Ohio State will as well (Wisconsin also has a good shot at it but they would meet OSU in the Big Ten title game so they both aren't unbeaten), and the SEC champion will of course make the playoffs (Bama is the only unbeaten, but a 1 loss SEC champ will make it in), so the question is if Cincinnati is sitting there at the end of the year unbeaten with 10+ wins and ranked very highly, would they get that 4th spot?  Given all the strangeness that is this year it almost makes sense to let the little guy have their day.

Thoughts?
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 01:14:19 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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I'd say they need Bama, Clemson to win out to have a chance.  If Bama and either Georgia or Florida both end up with 1 loss or both Clemson and Notre Dame end up with 1 loss, I think they'd all get in over an undefeated Cincinnati.  Texas A&M has a good chance of only having 1 loss and they might get in over an undefeated Cincinnati.  An undefeated Oregon or USC would probably get in over an undefeated Cincinnati. 

Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2020, 10:40:38 PM »

Offline Moranis

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UC crushed Houston today and BYU throttled Boise State yesterday, so both of the "little" guys are still right there in the possible mix.  Both got a big boost from Georgia losing to Florida and picking up a 2nd loss, though Florida and Texas A&M may move ahead of UC given their impressive victories and still each only having 1 loss.  If Clemson completes the comeback and beats ND, I think that would probably eliminate ND given Lawrence isn't out there for Clemson (while Clemson might still be in the fold because they don't have Lawrence out there if they lose this one). 
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2020, 09:42:29 AM »

Online Roy H.

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After last night, it looks like a no.

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Clemson

Unless Clemson loses again, or ND loses by blowout in the ACC championship game, the ACC will get two teams.


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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2020, 10:32:30 AM »

Offline Moranis

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yeah was really pulling for Clemson.
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2020, 11:58:19 AM »

Offline Moranis

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well Cincinnati finished out the year unbeaten, but I have no hope they will get the 4th spot as I'm sure it will be ND or A&M.  I do think if there was ever a time to let one of the little guys in, this is the year, but I know it won't happen, and the committee will absolutely put a power 5, non-conference champion that lost by 24 points in the playoffs instead of the unbeaten little guy.  Something about that just doesn't seem fair, especially in the abbreviated season when there were basically no non-conference games from which to really gauge overall conference quality (Cincinnati originally had a game at Nebraska scheduled for the year, and I get Nebraska isn't exactly good, but it would have been a chance to show something).
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2020, 12:07:40 PM »

Offline Birdman

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Should be a 8 team playoffs.. been saying this for years.. 5 conference winners ( SEC, ACC, PAC, Big 10 & Big 12) then 3 teams
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2020, 12:44:42 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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well Cincinnati finished out the year unbeaten, but I have no hope they will get the 4th spot as I'm sure it will be ND or A&M.  I do think if there was ever a time to let one of the little guys in, this is the year, but I know it won't happen, and the committee will absolutely put a power 5, non-conference champion that lost by 24 points in the playoffs instead of the unbeaten little guy.  Something about that just doesn't seem fair, especially in the abbreviated season when there were basically no non-conference games from which to really gauge overall conference quality (Cincinnati originally had a game at Nebraska scheduled for the year, and I get Nebraska isn't exactly good, but it would have been a chance to show something).
ND's only loss is Clemson.  A&M's only loss is Bama.  Unless you're delusional and think Cincinnati could beat Clemson or Bama, why should Cincinnati get to go to the playoffs just because they played a much easier schedule?  Cincinnati barely beating Tulsa in their conference's championship doesn't help their cause.  They also got destroyed 42-0 by Ohio State in 2019 season. 

Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2020, 06:28:35 PM »

Offline Moranis

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well Cincinnati finished out the year unbeaten, but I have no hope they will get the 4th spot as I'm sure it will be ND or A&M.  I do think if there was ever a time to let one of the little guys in, this is the year, but I know it won't happen, and the committee will absolutely put a power 5, non-conference champion that lost by 24 points in the playoffs instead of the unbeaten little guy.  Something about that just doesn't seem fair, especially in the abbreviated season when there were basically no non-conference games from which to really gauge overall conference quality (Cincinnati originally had a game at Nebraska scheduled for the year, and I get Nebraska isn't exactly good, but it would have been a chance to show something).
ND's only loss is Clemson.  A&M's only loss is Bama.  Unless you're delusional and think Cincinnati could beat Clemson or Bama, why should Cincinnati get to go to the playoffs just because they played a much easier schedule?  Cincinnati barely beating Tulsa in their conference's championship doesn't help their cause.  They also got destroyed 42-0 by Ohio State in 2019 season.
Notre Dame is going to lose by at least 20 points to Bama.  It isn't going to be close.  And sure, I know ND beat Clemson, but it was a Clemson without Lawrence.  We all saw what Lawrence does to that team.  Outside of that * win, ND also beat UNC.  No other ranked teams on the schedule and Boston College is the only other team they beat that has a winning record (they played all of the teams at the bottom of the ACC).  They both played USF and neither one was challenged.  I have no idea if Cincinnati is better than ND, but they beat 5 teams with a winning record. They won their conference. They have a win over a ranked opponent (in the final rankings).  And they didn't get beat by 24 points. 

Not sure why 2019 matters, but I seem to recall ND losing to Michigan by 31 points.  The same Michigan that lost to Ohio State by 29 that year and was 2-4 this year.  That is why last year matters not.

At the end of the day Notre Dame beat 3 teams with a winning record, one of which was without the best player in the country who in the rematch beat ND by over 3 TD's.  They didn't win their conference and looked awful in the process.  The other power team, A&M lost by 28 points and beat exactly 2 teams with a winning record all year.  This was the year they should have let a little guy in.  Sure UC would have gotten crushed by Bama, but so what, ND is going to get crushed by Bama also. 
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2021, 02:25:56 PM »

Offline Moranis

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21-10 UC winning with the ball in the middle of the 3rd quarter against Georgia. Even if Georgia comes back this game is showing that UC has the talent to be on the field wirh the powers and further solidifies they should have been given the shot in this really strange year.
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2021, 03:32:24 PM »

Online Donoghus

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Looks like we may be getting expanded playoffs very soon.  I think this is good news for college football.

Quote
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
10m
Pending approval - which it will be approved -
@CFBPlayoff
 headed to 12 teams. Earliest start would be after 2023 regular season, sources told
@Stadium
. Because of impact of expanded playoff, expect anywhere from 4-10 bowls to be eliminated by 2023, sources said


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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2021, 03:44:24 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Looks like we may be getting expanded playoffs very soon.  I think this is good news for college football.

Quote
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
10m
Pending approval - which it will be approved -
@CFBPlayoff
 headed to 12 teams. Earliest start would be after 2023 regular season, sources told
@Stadium
. Because of impact of expanded playoff, expect anywhere from 4-10 bowls to be eliminated by 2023, sources said

Agreed.

Now we get to watch the committee vote the best undefeated small conference teams #13 every year.


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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2021, 04:09:47 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Looks like we may be getting expanded playoffs very soon.  I think this is good news for college football.

Quote
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
10m
Pending approval - which it will be approved -
@CFBPlayoff
 headed to 12 teams. Earliest start would be after 2023 regular season, sources told
@Stadium
. Because of impact of expanded playoff, expect anywhere from 4-10 bowls to be eliminated by 2023, sources said

Agreed.

Now we get to watch the committee vote the best undefeated small conference teams #13 every year.
The proposal says the SIX highest ranked champions will make it.  So it guarantees that at least 1 of the Little 5 teams will be in, and it also doesn't guarantee that all 5 of the Power 5 will be in.  The top 4 seeds will be the 4 highest ranked champions and will have a bye.  The 1st round games will be on the home field of the higher seed. 
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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2021, 04:30:05 PM »

Online Donoghus

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Looks like we may be getting expanded playoffs very soon.  I think this is good news for college football.

Quote
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
10m
Pending approval - which it will be approved -
@CFBPlayoff
 headed to 12 teams. Earliest start would be after 2023 regular season, sources told
@Stadium
. Because of impact of expanded playoff, expect anywhere from 4-10 bowls to be eliminated by 2023, sources said

Agreed.

Now we get to watch the committee vote the best undefeated small conference teams #13 every year.
The proposal says the SIX highest ranked champions will make it.  So it guarantees that at least 1 of the Little 5 teams will be in, and it also doesn't guarantee that all 5 of the Power 5 will be in.  The top 4 seeds will be the 4 highest ranked champions and will have a bye.  The 1st round games will be on the home field of the higher seed.

Sounds like ND is getting the shaft a bit.  Can't say I'm shedding any tears, though.


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Re: Is this the year a Little 5 Program makes the CFB Playoffs?
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2021, 04:47:41 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Looks like we may be getting expanded playoffs very soon.  I think this is good news for college football.

Quote
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
·
10m
Pending approval - which it will be approved -
@CFBPlayoff
 headed to 12 teams. Earliest start would be after 2023 regular season, sources told
@Stadium
. Because of impact of expanded playoff, expect anywhere from 4-10 bowls to be eliminated by 2023, sources said

Agreed.

Now we get to watch the committee vote the best undefeated small conference teams #13 every year.
The proposal says the SIX highest ranked champions will make it.  So it guarantees that at least 1 of the Little 5 teams will be in, and it also doesn't guarantee that all 5 of the Power 5 will be in.  The top 4 seeds will be the 4 highest ranked champions and will have a bye.  The 1st round games will be on the home field of the higher seed.
Exactly.  Last season Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina both would have both made it and Oregon, the Pac-12 champ, would not have.   

Bama, Clemson, OSU and OU would have been the top ranked champions and gotten the first round byes.  It looks like the 1st round matchups would have been:

Coastal Carolina @ Notre Dame
Indiana @ Texas A&M
Iowa State @ Florida
Georgia @ Cincinnati

Those were the actual top 12 teams in the CFP rankings.  Now I'd expect all 3 SEC teams and Notre Dame to win which would mean 4 SEC teams in 2nd round and a whole bunch of whining.