PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERSKEPP PORTLAND WEIRD, AND ALSO GIVE US A HIGH SEED
Roster:
BLAZER RotationPlayer(
minutes)
Point Guard:
Ricky Rubio (30), Beno Udrih (12), Brandon Knight (6)
Shooting Guard:
Joe Johnson (29), Marco Belinelli (15), Brandon Knight (4)
Small Forward:
Wilson Chandler (25), Matt Barnes (16), Joe Johnson (5), Marco Belinelli (2)
Power Forward:
Paul Millsap (30), Matt Bonner (13), Wilson Chandler (5)
Center:
Dwight Howard (35), Chuck Hayes (13),
Reserves: Villanueva, McRoberts
Head Coach: Erik SpoelstraI want to ease Rubio and Howard back into the season early, come playoff time the rotation will be shortened considerably and they will be required to ramp it up. This lineup also has a lot of fluidity to it
as Johnson, Chandler, Belinelli, and Knight will all be shifting around between multiple positions for situationals. A small ball lineup can be utilized using a 3-guard rotation in Rubio/Knight/Johnson with Chandler bumping up to the 4 if we're trying to up the tempo. In a shooting situational Belinelli can be bumped to the 1 or the 3.
Positional Breakdown/Outlook:PG:Before being sidelined with injury, Rubio was dazzling the NBA with his pure-point skills and smooth transition from overseas. Despite hitting the rookie wall a bit, Rubio ended his season ranked 6th in assists/game, and amongst PGs finished t-6th in total rebounds/game, 2nd in steals/game, and 1st in DEF rating (blocks+steals+charges). Here are a few more factoids to wet your whistle…
In games Rubio played this season, the Timberwolves were 21-20 and had a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Without him, the Timberwolves lost 20 of their final 25 games and finished last place in the Northwest Division.
With Rubio off the court, the Timberwolves were 7.1 points worse per 48 minutes. The Timberwolves offense wasn’t affected as much as their defense was without Rubio. They scored 1.4 more points and allowed 5.7 fewer points per 48 minutes with Rubio on the court
Rubio was known as a closer because as the game went on, he got better. When his season came to an end, his 71 fourth-quarter assists were the most of any player in the NBA, rookie or not.
But Rubio's impact was about more than just passing. Rubio notched 12 games with at least 10 points and 10 assists, trailing only Steve Nash and Deron Williams just prior to injury.
Had he finished the season with enough games to qualify, Rubio's season averages (10.6 PPG, 8.2 APG, 2.2 SPG) would have put him with Phil Ford, Mark Jackson and Tim Hardaway as just the fourth rookie in NBA history to reach those season thresholds.
Despite the consensus being that Rubio will return for training camp, the Blazers will be cautious with his minutes and will keep him limited early. His injury should not keep him from doing any of the things he did last season, though the Blazers do regret that Rubio didn’t have a chance to better his game over the summer, a more consistent jump shot is all that is keeping him out of elite PG status at just 21 years old. The minutes reduction will be filled by Beno Udrih, who is of similar style, and Brandon Knight, who compliments the group as more of a scoring PG.
SG:The Silent Assassin will man the 2-spot. We all know what Joe Johnson is capable of – one of the best iso players in the league, knock down shooter, excellent in the p&r and in the post, but what’s often overlooked is Johnson’s defense. Synergy ranks Joe 7th and 4th in iso and post-defense, respectively. All of these numbers leave no shadow of a doubt that Johnson is a multifaceted weapon and star player, but what seperates him from the pack is what he does when the game is on the line. The man is
CLUTCH.Clutch, as defined by NBA.com, is player performance in the last five minutes of games when the score margin is within five points.
When you check out his
clutch numbers, everything in the scoring area has gone up, from traditional shooting percentage (49 percent from 43) to all advanced metrics, Joe improves in the last five minutes of games.
His usage goes up, from 27 percent to 36 percent and his offensive rating increases also (113.8 from 101.
, without any incline in defensive rating (96.5 from 96.7), leaving his net efficiency even higher in the clutch.
Turnovers down, as is everything that is not associated with scoring -- apparently CLUTCH time is Joe's time with the ball as rebounding and assist rate drop as his scoring/offensive efficiency increase.
Comparatively, Joe surpassed many of the players who today we consider the “finishers” of the league. I did a quick search of the league’s top scorers and their
clutch numbers, and only Pierce and Gay could tout numbers as gaudy as Joe’s. Durant (39/33/88), Kobe (36/29/82), Lebron (45/39/71), Dirk (34/30/95), Westbrook (42/35/92), Wade (42/20/67), Melo (38/36/71), Paul (42/21/96) – none of them come close to touching Joe’s
clutch numbers of 45% fg, 52% 3pt, 91% ft.
Bottom line is, the Blazers have a bonafide finisher, something that other teams with “stars” don’t necessarily have.
Johnson’s primary backup is Marco Belinelli, who will absolutely feast on open looks when in the game with Howard. Brandon Knight will also see time at the 2 when we look for playmaking off the bench.
SF:What can we say for Wilson Chandler other than last season was a mulligan for him. He joined the Nuggets at the end of the season for 8 games after coming back from China. Considering how consistent his numbers have been prior to last year’s nutty season, I think they’re fair to bring up. Chandler posted lines of 15pt/5reb 45%/35%/80% in 2010-2011. Before he left NY, he had improved each consecutive year, including career highs in pts, rebs, blocks, ft%, 3pt %.
His 2010-11 shot blocking numbers would have put hims at ~20th in nba this past season. Taking into account that he has a defined role, is in his prime, and is essentially a 4th option as a scorer, the Blazers have no doubt that Chandler can get back to, if not exceed his numbers from NY – at least in terms of efficiency. 43%, 35%, 80% shooting numbers should be his basement.
As far as his role on this team, Chandler will be expected to knock down open jumpers, provide speed and athleticism, and cause havoc defensively with his length. During Chandler’s last full season, he held opponents to sub-10 PER (+5 net) when playing SF, and was 2nd on NY in PER, where he outplayed opponents at 3 different positions. The luxury of having a player at his ability that can play the 2, 3, and 4 is an outstanding asset for a team without a ton of depth.
There are numerous options to spell Chandler at the 3. Millsap has played well there in the past, Joe Johnson has much experience there as well, but the primary backup will be Matt Barnes, who will help infuse an attitude into the club. We all know how important a little swagger is around here when it comes to defense.
PF:Paul Millsap is one of those overlooked players in the league, especially here on celticsblog. As a poster stated early in this process, he’s just one of those guys that doesn’t garner a lot of enthusiasm when one thinks about today’s top players. The numbers don’t share this POV.
Millsap is an absolute stud rebounder - he converts his putbacks off of offensive rebound opportunities 66% of the time, good for 10th in the league. He ranked 3rd in steals, 7th in steal percentage, and was the only player in the top 20 of that list who wasn't a wing or PG.
Advanced statistics also can’t get enough ‘Sap. Basketballvalue.com has him ranked 4th, and Win Shares has him 14th overall. These are important stats: they seek to totally measure a player's ability on the floor, rather than one small aspect of it.
Pairing him next to a monster like Howard means that Millsap will get a lot of open looks off of double teams and slow rotations. He will be asked to set a lot of screens for our wings, as well as run the occasional p&r game with Rubio. Millsap will also get a lot of looks off of offensive rebounds, where he has a knack for making plays. His knowledge of playing with a big post-player in Utah will make the transition of him playing next to the best center in the game extremely easy & beneficial to both parties.
Backing Millsap will be Matt Bonner, who is one of the best spot-up shooters in today’s game. When the floor needs a little extra spacing, Bonner will be there to catch open looks off of Howard-doubles. Wilson Chandler will also see time here, where he has fared very well over his career.
C:Dwight Howard. Once in a generation center. Best rebounded and defender in the game. PER is always top 10. Best P&R man in the game. So many things to pontificate about here. Look we all know who Dwight Howard is – when he’s not trying to force his way out of Orlando he is a nightmare for opposing centers and singlehandedly will change a game defensively. Howard is going to run a ton of high pick and rolls with Ricky Rubio. All of the ensuing chaos in the paint will lead to outstanding looks for our shooters, as last year Rubio was tied with Deron Williams for first in assists that lead to 3-pointers made. Rubio is already a better pick and roll player than Jameer Nelson, and his ability to use his body to his advantage will lead to many easy finishes for both players.
Backing Howard will be Chuck Hayes, who is an extremely capable post defender with good lateral quickness to defendface-ups as well. His hardwork and effort will keep our defense functioning even while Howard gets a blow.
Defensively, the scheme will revolve around Dwight and utilize what worked in Orlando – namely Portland will place a premium on chasing shooters off the 3-point line and over the top of picks. These wing defenders will stay at home on the perimeter because they have a very large man with very broad shoulders manning the basket area and cleaning up any blow-bys that might occur. Portland fields better athletes and defensive players at every position when compared to Orlando. This will be by far the best defensive surroundings Dwight has ever played with and he will thrive.
Why it all works:I’m handing Erik Spoelstra what he’s already had in Miami. I’m giving him the ingredients to yet another Championship ring. The most dominant player at his position? Check. A co-superstar who is a deadly finisher? Check.
Add to that 3 complimentary pieces that are all borderline all-stars. This team’s roster not only compliments itself well, there’s just so much to like both offensively and defensively. All of these starters are excellent, yet none of them have ever played in such a potent lineup. It's my opinion that a starting 5 that's as versatile and talented as mine will more than make up for a patch-work bench. My starting 5 can match up with and beat any starting 5 assembled here, and in the end talent wins out. The Blazers cannot be contained by anyone in the Northwest and I anticipate a very deep playoff run with a high chance at a finals appearance. This is Dwight Howard’s envisioned dream. He has his championship team.
Topic: 2012 CB Draft NW Division Press Conferences (Read 33166 times)