A direct trade Jrue for Hayward works in Trade NBA:
It doesn't work tax-wise going forward.
For the sake of discussion, let's assume that:
- We trade Hayward + #14 + #26 to the Pels for Jrue. The more picks we include, the easier it becomes to afford the tax going forward. For the record, I believe tradeNBA is wrong and the Pels would have to send us a filler, but that's not the point here.
- The cap plateaus at $109,140,000 for 2 seasons, due to the impending recession.
- Tatum and Jrue re-sign with the C's in 2021 for the 30% max. It only takes one desperate team to make one desperate offer to Jrue. Even if it never happens, we should be making our calculations based on this scenario.
- Next year's pick ends up at #26 (just like this year).
- We let Theis walk in 2021.
- We fill the remaining roster spots with rookie minimum contracts (best case scenario regarding the tax situation).
payroll for 2021/22:
1. Kemba $36,016,200
2. Jrue $32,742,000 (=30% of the cap)
3. Tatum $32,742,000 (=30% of the cap)
4. Brown $25,794,643
5. Smart $13,839,285
6. Langford $3,804,360
7. R. Williams $3,661,976
8. G. Williams $2,617,800
9. Celtics 2021 pick $2,331,600
10. Bucks pick $2,142,240
11. Edwards $1,782,621
12. rookie minimum $925,258
13. rookie minimum $925,258
14. rookie minimum $925,258
15. rookie minimum $925,258
dead cap
Yabu $1,039,080
Jackson $92,857
total: $162,307,694
Luxury Tax Threshold: $132,627,000
The Celtics would be $29,680,694 over the tax line!
For a non-repeater, the tax breaks down like this:
150% for amounts up to $5 million over the threshold
175% from $5-10 million.
250% from $10-15 million.
325% from $15-20 million.
375% from $20-25 million.
425% from $25-30 million.
and so on
$7,500,000 + $8,750,000 + $12,500,000 + $16,250,000 + $18,750,000 + $19,892,949.5 = $83,642,949.5 in luxury tax!
Fwiw, the biggest amount ever paid in luxury tax is $61.6 million (by the Thunder in 2018/19).
tl;dr
In this scenario, the Celtics would have to pay ~$83 million in luxury tax!