CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: jackpercussion on November 21, 2017, 09:10:40 AM
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Just my opinion.
I think the offense has had more success when either Baynes or Theis starts. Neither player has to create his own offense, and just needs to focus on blocking shots and rebounds. Any offense they produce is a bonus. Marcus Morris seems to take away shots with Jaylen, Jason, Al and Kyrie on the court. I really like Marcus Morris and think he is a fantastic addition to the team. On the second unit, he gives more opportunity to stabilize and add offense to a currently struggling group.
I know Baynes will start against Miami, but I think Theis should also start against teams with less physical centers. Just more balance to the team.
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I agree. I think he should be the lead guy on the second unit. Baynes makes sense with the starters.
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I have been saying this for a few games now. He needs to be the 6th man. I am surprised at how good he is at creating his own shot. The bench needs that a lot more than the starters do. He gets lost with the starters.
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anything that gives Marcus Smart less opportunities to shoot is a good thing by me.
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I agree. I think he should be the lead guy on the second unit. Baynes makes sense with the starters.
Especially when Carlisle is starting Kleber at the 4 instead of Barnes.
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This seems obvious and it was even something Brad was doing earlier in the year (and the last two years with Amir/Horford and Amir/Sully). Morris is a nice player, but he isn't having the effect with the 1st unit that he would with the 2nd. When Rozier is by far your best offensive option in the 2nd unit, you know you're in trouble.
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I agree. I think he should be the lead guy on the second unit. Baynes makes sense with the starters.
The problem is that Morris has fewer shots than Avery Bradley. So if he's the lead guy in the second unit, we're in trouble.
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anything that gives Marcus Smart less opportunities to shoot is a good thing by me.
Amen brother. TP
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I think the issue with him not starting is the team either starts the only other real C on the team or start a 2nd rookie.
I think I would try starting a 2nd rookie and see how it works, keeping the 2nd C off the bench as well.
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I think the issue with him not starting is the team either starts the only other real C on the team or start a 2nd rookie.
I think I would try starting a 2nd rookie and see how it works, keeping the 2nd C off the bench as well.
Starting Baynes and Horford hasn't been an issue. You can start both and stagger their minutes so one of them is in the court for probably 90% of the game. I think Theis can competently handle 5 minutes a game on the court as the center. Unless the opponent is starting a truly bad matchup for Horford (i.e. Aaron Gordon), Baynes should be starting, as it would make both our starting unit and bench better.
It's about maximizing the abilities of the individual players. Morris clearly adds more to the bench than he does the starting unit, and the opposite seems to be true about Baynes.
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I agree. I think he should be the lead guy on the second unit. Baynes makes sense with the starters.
The problem is that Morris has fewer shots than Avery Bradley. So if he's the lead guy in the second unit, we're in trouble.
He's scoring 19.6 pp36 and Avery Bradley is averaging... 19.6 pp36. FGA and usage are roughly the same. And you act like it's a bad thing. Bradley's the 3rd scoring option on a team that's 3rd in the Eastern Conference.
Not to mention, Morris is doing that as the 5th option in a starting group and Bradley's putting up his numbers as the 3rd option. Morris would surely have more opportunities off the bench, for the reasons others have discussed.
Marcus Morris is a perfectly capable bench scoring option on most teams, and would be a substantive improvement on ours.
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I'm fine with swapping out Morris and Baynes depending on the matchups.
The clear cut top 4 guys are Kyrie, Horford, Tatum, and Brown. The fifth guy really depends on matchups and who has it going .... Smart, Rozier, Baynes, Morris, Theis, sometimes even Larkin.
It's a good situation to be in, really, when you have so many role players who can step in. That's a function of having a really excellent top 4.
Now, just imagine when Gordon Hayward is that 5th guy .....
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I started two threads saying that Baynes should start. We looked much better as a team when he did.
Plus, Morris on the second team gives them someone who can shoot. God knows they need it.
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We're in trouble with Morris as opposed to Marcus Smart as the #1 option on the 2nd unit?
IMO, moving Morris to the 2nd unit is a no-brainer.
There might be matchups, like when we play Cleveland, where I think Morris with the starters is preferable. But in general, I think it's much better to leave him with the 2nd unit, then depending on matchups or who is hot, your finishing unit could include either Morris, Baynes or Smart.
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i tend to agree
i like Baynes
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I totally concur with the notion of starting Baynes alongside Horford.
Not only does it address the bench offense problem by brining Morris in as the 6th or 7th man, it also
a) allows Horford to start the game at 'Point PF', where he has clearly excelled at this year. He's just so much more impactful when he can play farther away from the basket on both ends of the floor. He can take a 3PT shot or set a high pick & pop and when we play Baynes or Theis, we still have a true big man down near the post to go for rebounds. He can switch on perimeter D knowing that a true big is holding the fort down low behind him, if the opposing big rolls on our guard.
b) fixes a glaring problem with the big man rotation by not forcing Baynes and Theis to have to play together. Both guys have looked great this year at C. Why mess with that? When we forced Theis to play the 4 the other day, he almost looked visibly uncomfortable. I think Morris makes much more sense sliding into the role of 'Horford backup at the 4' because he's more comfortable as a play-maker.
The production we've gotten from Baynes & Theis at the 5 position has been fantastic. I don't know why we are messing with that.
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I think the issue with him not starting is the team either starts the only other real C on the team or start a 2nd rookie.
I think I would try starting a 2nd rookie and see how it works, keeping the 2nd C off the bench as well.
Starting Baynes and Horford hasn't been an issue. You can start both and stagger their minutes so one of them is in the court for probably 90% of the game. I think Theis can competently handle 5 minutes a game on the court as the center. Unless the opponent is starting a truly bad matchup for Horford (i.e. Aaron Gordon), Baynes should be starting, as it would make both our starting unit and bench better.
It's about maximizing the abilities of the individual players. Morris clearly adds more to the bench than he does the starting unit, and the opposite seems to be true about Baynes.
No, it has not been an issue. They can clearly play together and it is a successful lineup for the Celtics.
But I could see them wanting to avoid the foul trouble issue if both started and got into trouble early.
Look, I am reaching here trying to think of logical reasons why they might not to want to start Baynes every game.
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Not sure why Stevens has started him.
Guess would be offense. Morris has his shot and I suppose Stevens sees how it fits with the rest of the starters.
The two "centers" don't represent the offensive threat that Morris does...obviously.
So why not start our pal Baynes at the C? They won a carload of games with him starting.
Stevens' starters aren't scoring very much...17th in the NBA in ppg.
The Celtic's bench is in a nasty slump, thus, making it worse for the starters.
Thus, the potential justification for MM starting....Needs more points from starting 5 and surrounded by our four "superstahs" he gets better looks. (didn't seem that way last night though)
Watch the benches against each other in the Warrior's game.
Iguodala scored 8 points while going -18
Livingston scored 2 points and was +10
West scored 6 points and was +5
Nick Young 7 points and was -14
Combined they were 9 for 16 from the field and a total of -17 (not really, but go with it)
While watching I thought they crushed our bench...and they did 23-12
Smart scored 1 point going +15
Rozier scored 5 and went +5
Semi scored 2 and was a 0
Baynes scored 4 and was +11
Combined they were 2 for 19 (not a miss print).
The point of this? The Celtics bench in the fourth quarter (partially because Smart's stats are simply cuckoo at the end of games and always have been) turn opposing benches into a wet spot.. whilst our heroes on the starting unit do stuff like win 16 games in a row.
Brad Steven's internal dialogue..."Our bench is killing it in the 4th, but, can't hit the ocean....Kyrie can't miss at the end and Tatum goes tear a$$ crazy with 4 minutes to go so, why ,mess with what's working? Hey Morris! You're starting tonight."
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I think the issue with him not starting is the team either starts the only other real C on the team or start a 2nd rookie.
I think I would try starting a 2nd rookie and see how it works, keeping the 2nd C off the bench as well.
Starting Baynes and Horford hasn't been an issue. You can start both and stagger their minutes so one of them is in the court for probably 90% of the game. I think Theis can competently handle 5 minutes a game on the court as the center. Unless the opponent is starting a truly bad matchup for Horford (i.e. Aaron Gordon), Baynes should be starting, as it would make both our starting unit and bench better.
It's about maximizing the abilities of the individual players. Morris clearly adds more to the bench than he does the starting unit, and the opposite seems to be true about Baynes.
And Guerchon Yabusele is averaging 20.1 per36. Unfortunately, it's a little more complicated that that.
The problem with Morris is that he's just a jump shooter. You're not going to give him the ball and ask him to carry the offense. Terry Rozier is that type of player, but Terry Rozier is just awful.
Don't get me wrong, having Morris on the second unit is probably better than not having him (SOMEONE needs to be able to make a jump shot), but I won't hold my breath about him being any sort of mega efficient offensive "anchor".
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Just my opinion.
I think the offense has had more success when either Baynes or Theis starts. Neither player has to create his own offense, and just needs to focus on blocking shots and rebounds. Any offense they produce is a bonus. Marcus Morris seems to take away shots with Jaylen, Jason, Al and Kyrie on the court. I really like Marcus Morris and think he is a fantastic addition to the team. On the second unit, he gives more opportunity to stabilize and add offense to a currently struggling group.
I know Baynes will start against Miami, but I think Theis should also start against teams with less physical centers. Just more balance to the team.
Great job, really interesting thread. I think that I can add a dimension that hasn’t been discussed up to this point.
First thing. The "second unit" is a myth. It is meaningful to distinguish starters from substitutes, but if you look at minutes, the order doesn't match the starters/substitutes dichotomy; and five substitutes are virtually never on the floor together, and literally never for meaningful minutes.
(Per game):
1 Brown
2 Horford
3 Irving
4 Smart
5 Tatum
6 Rozier
7 Morris
8 Baynes
9 Ojeleye
10 Theis
(Smart and Rozier haters take note! - both those guys have been promoted this year... just sayin)
Second thing. The debate here is Morris versus Baynes, but if you look at actual lineups you need to include Smart. Here's why:
The three most used lineups all have Irving/Brown/Tatum/Horford, the fifth player being either Baynes or Morris or Smart.
Those three lineups represent by far more minutes used than any other lineups, In fact like three times as much - AND each of those is getting almost exactly the same number of minutes.
We can track the offensive and defensive effectiveness of each of those three; if we're looking at points per possession, this is what we see:
The lineup with Morris gets 1.11 points and gives up 1.21;
The lineup with Baynes gets 1.06 points and gives up .90; and
The lineup with Smart gets 1.16 points and gives up .92.
These lineups range from 62 to 69 minutes, and the next most commonly used lineup has been on the court for less than 25 (which, by the way, has Irving/Smart/Brown/Horford/Baynes). So there are tiny gaps between the top three lineups and a huge gap between them and all the other lineups. I said that the “second unit” is a myth - the “first unit” is also. What more accurately reflects reality is that there are three primary units with four core guys plus either Smart, Baynes, or Morris.
The Baynes unit is the best defensive unit, bolstering the argument for the Baynes supporters; while its offense lags the other two, it’s still plus. The Smart unit is almost identical for defense, while its offense is substantially better (again, Smart detractors take note!). So far the Morris unit gives a net negative in points, again bolstering the Baynes supporters in the Baynes versus Morris debate. But note that the Smart unit gives the team the highest net points of the three; the net is a quarter of a point per possession (.24) - that’s an enormous advantage!
Now I think that that’s about enough for now. Counterarguments are certainly possible (and welcome); It’s evident that Brad likes the Morris unit, so it’s likely that that one’s minutes will increase as the season goes on. And, as we often have to deal with, the sample sizes are small, even for the three primary units.
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I think the issue with him not starting is the team either starts the only other real C on the team or start a 2nd rookie.
How much more do the Brown and Tatum have to do to prove themselves? Tatum is not your average rookie.
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Those three lineups represent by far more minutes used than any other lineups, In fact like three times as much - AND each of those is getting almost exactly the same number of minutes.
We can track the offensive and defensive effectiveness of each of those three; if we're looking at points per possession, this is what we see:
The lineup with Morris gets 1.11 points and gives up 1.21;
The lineup with Baynes gets 1.06 points and gives up .90; and
The lineup with Smart gets 1.16 points and gives up .92.
These lineups range from 62 to 69 minutes, and the next most commonly used lineup has been on the court for less than 25 (which, by the way, has Irving/Smart/Brown/Horford/Baynes). So there are tiny gaps between the top three lineups and a huge gap between them and all the other lineups. I said that the “second unit” is a myth - the “first unit” is also. What more accurately reflects reality is that there are three primary units with four core guys plus either Smart, Baynes, or Morris.
The Baynes unit is the best defensive unit, bolstering the argument for the Baynes supporters; while its offense lags the other two, it’s still plus. The Smart unit is almost identical for defense, while its offense is substantially better (again, Smart detractors take note!). So far the Morris unit gives a net negative in points, again bolstering the Baynes supporters in the Baynes versus Morris debate. But note that the Smart unit gives the team the highest net points of the three; the net is a quarter of a point per possession (.24) - that’s an enormous advantage!
Caveate: The Starters+Baynes lineup has been used mainly at the actual start of games. The Starters+Smart lineup has been used mainly near the end of 1st periods and in the 4th period.
It's not clear that a Starters+Smart lineup would fair as well against starters (where other teams often start a 7 footer at C). Similarly, it is not clear that a Starters+Baynes lineup would fair as well to close out the 4th (when other teams often go small).
IMHO, size matters, at least in the front-court. In the loss to Miami, the Heat put 3 players all in the ~250 lbs or more class (Whiteside, Olynyk & Johnson) on the floor for ~68 player-minutes of "big man" presence. We put Horford, Baynes & Theis on the floor for a combined ~55 minutes. Not surprisingly, we got out-rebounded and we could not stop paint-penetration by Dragic and Waiters.
During the streak, we have played our best in games when we gave Baynes & Theis close to or more than 20 minutes each, giving us a 'true big man' presence of 70-80 player-minutes.
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He's just too exploitable on D.
He's excellent when there's a plodding big man to cover and he protects the rim very well for someone who isn't a shot blocker.
But there's a reason he played all of about 5 minutes vs GSW, they just destroy him in switches and backdoor cuts.
Having Morris out there
1) spreads the floor and provides even more space for Kyrie and Jaylen/Tatum to drive. It also gives Horford more space to go 1v1 in the post when the shotclock is getting low.
2) Makes switching between all 5 defenders much easier and defending the 3 point shot much easier.
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He's just too exploitable on D.
So far, the Al Horford + Aron Baynes front court has given up a about ~90 points per 100 (depending on which site you check, the number ranges from ~89 to 93) and all of our best defensive lineups overwhelmingly include Baynes on them. Per nbawowy.com, with Baynes 'ON' the court, we've given up just 97.6 points per 100 (393 minute sample). With Baynes OFF the court, we've given up 106.3.
There is no getting around the fact that Baynes' minutes on the floor have been a huge part of why we have the NBA's best overall defense.
He's excellent when there's a plodding big man to cover and he protects the rim very well for someone who isn't a shot blocker.
But there's a reason he played all of about 5 minutes vs GSW, they just destroy him in switches and backdoor cuts.
Having Morris out there
Having Morris out there ... with the starters at the start of the game was when GSW jumped out to a big lead. During that time, Zaza (a big plodding 7 footer) was on the floor. We clearly struggled the most in the entire game during that stretch going -4 as a team while Morris was on the floor here against Zaza.
For some bizarre reason, Brad brought Baynes in at the end of the 1st period, after Zaza sat down and GSW went small with Green & Iggy as the front court. So yup, Baynes suddenly looked slow. The C's were another -4 during that short stint with Baynes against those two quick guys.
So that game was really poor big man usage by Brad, imho, to start the game.
And again, to start the 3rd period, Zaza was on the floor and so was Marcus Morris and we again sucked wind, going -10 during that stretch with both Morris and Zaza on the floor.
Morris sat down and Baynes came in to cover the last bit of Zaza's run and this time Kerr put McGee in. So during Baynes' second half run, he actually mainly faced Zaza or McGee, two 'plodding big men' and wuddayaknow? The C's went on a +15 run during that short stretch.
Golden State overall posted a +16 against us while Zaza was in the game. He was only negative for a very short segment overlapping Baynes.
Now, there were lots of other factors that affected the plus-minus flows in this game. Curry shot poorly. Jaylen put on his MVP cape. But the above are how things went in regards to the Morris and Baynes substitution schedules.
My point is never that Baynes should be out there on the floor all the time, especially against really quick front courts like, say, Green & Iggy. But the fact is, he's proven _very_ effective against the very large chunk of minutes that other teams put their own big plodding guys on the floor. And most teams -- including GSW -- still use their big plodding guys a ton. And usually (especially) at the start of games. We need to do so as well.
And I think a big additional factor on why starting Baynes has been so effective is that it puts Horford against smaller 4s. Horford has excelled this year when playing the 4. It allows him to roam more on defense knowing we have a big guy defending down low behind him. And on offense, he's been able to really take advantage of size mismatches this year. His TS% when on the floor with Baynes this year is 647%. When on the floor with Theis (smaller sample) it has been 68.3%. When Al is at the 4 and popping out to the perimeter for high screens and 3PT shots, we still have a 'true big' down low to block out & contest for rebounds.