What will be the realistic asking price for Nerlens Noel

[PhoSita]

I would agree that the fact that Noel will be a Restricted Free Agent next summer affects his value.

I disagree that it means there is any urgency to trade him right now.

Will Noel be a positive asset once he has signed an extension or a new contract next summer in restricted free agency?

Yes, absolutely, barring a subsequent injury.


If anything, waiting until after he has signed a long term extension / new contract probably makes more sense for his trade value, because the team trading for him will have a clearer sense of what he will cost long term, whereas right now it is a question mark.

To me, by far the most likely scenario is that the Sixers will shop both Noel and Okafor and ultimately trade Okafor when nobody offers them a Godfather offer for Noel.  Noel will be the starting center this season, playing 24-28 minutes per game with Embiid hopefully backing him up. 

They'll re-sign him in restricted free agency, and then look into trading him at the following trade deadline or the summer after that, provided that Embiid has shown enough to be considered the long term starting option at center.

[dannyboy35]

I'd love to get Noel. I'd throw out 16, 23, 35, Rozier, and Hunter or Young. If they want some extra 2nds then give them some 2nds.

So in other words you don't think this guy is very good? At least not anything if real value? I haven't seen Noel enough j don't think to have a good opinion if he can improve at all offensively.

[PickNRoll]

Why are people drawn to Noel?  He doesn't move the needle at all.  He's Javale McGee but people keep throwing out trade offers like he's Lamarcus Aldridge.

We don't need a guy to back up Amir Johnson.  Just sign Amir Johnson. I doubt Noel will ever be good enough to make a serious playoff rotation.

[Csfan1984]

Smart will be asking price
C's will go Rozier, 16, 35 and 45.

If I'm 76ers though I'd ask for AJ, Rozier and 16 myself but don't think they will do that. I'd ask for that because I want a vet big that can be a decent 4 or 5 and add some spacing. You can start AJ and Okafor, bring Simmons along slowly. Once Simmons and Okafor start gelling you have a great 3 man rotation with Simmons, Okafor, AJ.

[slamtheking]

I expect Philly will be looking for a trade offer built around one of the following:

(1) Draft pick = a top 10 pick. Something in the 7-10 range.
(2) An established vet = a youngish starter who is top 10-12 at his position (maybe top 15)
(3) A young prospect = above average starter to all-star potential

this would seem to make the most sense -- maybe even less since he's just finished the third year of his rookie deal so less cost control becomes an issue. 

[Ilikesports17]

I expect Philly will be looking for a trade offer built around one of the following:

(1) Draft pick = a top 10 pick. Something in the 7-10 range.
(2) An established vet = a youngish starter who is top 10-12 at his position (maybe top 15)
(3) A young prospect = above average starter to all-star potential

(1) Celtics would trade down to 7 or 8 using pick 3 to acquire that pick along with someone like WCS or Nurkic or Gallo
(2) Avery Bradley or Crowder  --> Id argue both are closer to the 5-10 range at their positions
(3) Marcus Smart

Not sure if I do any of these trades but I love Smart so Im not down to trade him unless we clearly win the deal.

[jpotter33]

If you could trade number three and Smart for Noel and Okafor then flip Okafor to Chicago for Butler, it might make some sense for both sides, as long as they feel confident in Embiid. Something like the following:

Boston: Noel, Okafor

Philly: Smart, #3 Pick


Boston: Butler, # 14

Chicago: Crowder, Okafor, Young

We'd still have room to add KD and Horford in this situation. So would that convince them enough to sign here? That'd leave us with the following roster:

PG: IT, Rozier
SG: Butler, Bradley
SF: Durant, Turner (resigned after signing KD and Horford)
PF: Horford, Mickey
C: Noel, Olynyk

You'd also have picks 14, 16, and 23 to use to upgrade the roster or trade for future assets.

[Evantime34]

I would agree that the fact that Noel will be a Restricted Free Agent next summer affects his value.

I disagree that it means there is any urgency to trade him right now.

Will Noel be a positive asset once he has signed an extension or a new contract next summer in restricted free agency?

Yes, absolutely, barring a subsequent injury.


If anything, waiting until after he has signed a long term extension / new contract probably makes more sense for his trade value, because the team trading for him will have a clearer sense of what he will cost long term, whereas right now it is a question mark.

To me, by far the most likely scenario is that the Sixers will shop both Noel and Okafor and ultimately trade Okafor when nobody offers them a Godfather offer for Noel.  Noel will be the starting center this season, playing 24-28 minutes per game with Embiid hopefully backing him up. 

They'll re-sign him in restricted free agency, and then look into trading him at the following trade deadline or the summer after that, provided that Embiid has shown enough to be considered the long term starting option at center.

I think Noel could be a strong candidate to take the QO and then leave in free agency as an unrestricted guy.

[PhoSita]

I would agree that the fact that Noel will be a Restricted Free Agent next summer affects his value.

I disagree that it means there is any urgency to trade him right now.

Will Noel be a positive asset once he has signed an extension or a new contract next summer in restricted free agency?

Yes, absolutely, barring a subsequent injury.


If anything, waiting until after he has signed a long term extension / new contract probably makes more sense for his trade value, because the team trading for him will have a clearer sense of what he will cost long term, whereas right now it is a question mark.

To me, by far the most likely scenario is that the Sixers will shop both Noel and Okafor and ultimately trade Okafor when nobody offers them a Godfather offer for Noel.  Noel will be the starting center this season, playing 24-28 minutes per game with Embiid hopefully backing him up. 

They'll re-sign him in restricted free agency, and then look into trading him at the following trade deadline or the summer after that, provided that Embiid has shown enough to be considered the long term starting option at center.

I think Noel could be a strong candidate to take the QO and then leave in free agency as an unrestricted guy.

Maybe if his agent is deeply incompetent.

A guy with Noel's knee issues should absolutely not take that kind of risk.  He will get a long term contract worth $15 million or so a year, and the Sixers will then be able to trade him for a decent return if they so choose.

[saltlover]

I would agree that the fact that Noel will be a Restricted Free Agent next summer affects his value.

I disagree that it means there is any urgency to trade him right now.

Will Noel be a positive asset once he has signed an extension or a new contract next summer in restricted free agency?

Yes, absolutely, barring a subsequent injury.


If anything, waiting until after he has signed a long term extension / new contract probably makes more sense for his trade value, because the team trading for him will have a clearer sense of what he will cost long term, whereas right now it is a question mark.

To me, by far the most likely scenario is that the Sixers will shop both Noel and Okafor and ultimately trade Okafor when nobody offers them a Godfather offer for Noel.  Noel will be the starting center this season, playing 24-28 minutes per game with Embiid hopefully backing him up. 

They'll re-sign him in restricted free agency, and then look into trading him at the following trade deadline or the summer after that, provided that Embiid has shown enough to be considered the long term starting option at center.

I think Noel could be a strong candidate to take the QO and then leave in free agency as an unrestricted guy.

Maybe if his agent is deeply incompetent.

A guy with Noel's knee issues should absolutely not take that kind of risk.  He will get a long term contract worth $15 million or so a year, and the Sixers will then be able to trade him for a decent return if they so choose.

Unless he signs a contract with another team, because in year 2 of free agent craziness someone is going to be willing to take a chance the Sixers won't match.  (That or Noel just isn't as good as you think he is).  The max for someone with Noel's NBA tenure could be $25 million.  There's some talk that max salaries will go away altogether in a CBA renegotiation.  The Sixers are just going to keep punting on seasons, spending $25 million to keep a player so they can trade him eventually, because they couldn't get a godfather offer a year earlier?  And if they match an offer, they can't trade him for a year.  Suppose he signs that offer sheet July 20th -- now Noel is on the books for weeks into the 2018 free agent cycle before they can possibly trade him, and there will be many fewer teams who can take his salary at that point.

Noel's value is greatest until the end of October this year.  There are three trading cycles (the draft, July free agency period, and October roster/extension deadline).  If the Sixers want to get the most value for him, they should do it by then.  And if they decide he's one of the bigs they want to keep, they should move the odd big out by then.

[celticsclay]

Earlier I said they'd want a "star price" for Noel.

To be clear, for the Celts, that'd mean:

- Nets pick
- Smart
- Additional prospect or first rounder (e.g. Rozier or #16 / 23)

For me, that's way too much to send out for a guy who I think tops out as a lesser version of Tyson Chandler / Marcus Camby with mediocre rebounding.

I got to say I am a bit confused by this. Why do you think they would ask for this kind of price for him? In some ways he looked worse this year than last year and his stock is not very high. How could they request that kind of offer with a straight face? Generally, you don't want to ask for outlandish prices as a GM because it makes other GM's not want to deal with you (I think this happened recently with another GM).

[LooseCannon]

Philadelphia's asking price will involve a belief that the Celtics need to overpay to consolidate draft picks.  Ainge will be like, lol no, and use all the picks rather than overpay in a trade.  Then, the idea of a trade will be revisited after the major free agents have landed.

[ssspence]

Earlier I said they'd want a "star price" for Noel.

To be clear, for the Celts, that'd mean:

- Nets pick
- Smart
- Additional prospect or first rounder (e.g. Rozier or #16 / 23)

For me, that's way too much to send out for a guy who I think tops out as a lesser version of Tyson Chandler / Marcus Camby with mediocre rebounding.

Just don't really follow this. What evidence do you have that the Sixers would expect this, or could ever hope to get it? It's totally unrealistic, and the Sixers are inevitably going to get impatient about moving BOTH Okafor and Noel, IMO.

He has no evidence whatsoever. Noel isn't going to get a "star price" because he's not a star.

I'm sorry, is this an evidence based exercise?

Why don't we start with precedent. When has a player of Noel's general profile been traded for the 3rd pick in the draft, a fairly equitable player in draft stock and profile (Smart) and another 1st round pick?

I can't find one. Which points to your misunderstanding of what the Sixers could expect for Noel. Or even Okafor for that matter.

I guess I'm just weary of these threads that suggest the Sixers are in a position to command a premium for either player. They're not. How stupid are they going to look this year with Noel, Okafor and Embiid staring at each other again? And what evidence is there that Bryan Colangelo is a patience-based GM (read:none)?

Most NBA GMs aren't dumb. They see the writing on the wall. And the longer Philly waits, the lower the value of Noel and Okafor are likely to become for a number of reasons on and off the court in each case.

[loco_91]

Nerlens is worth more to Philly than he is to us.

The reason is that he's a RFA next year. RFA's are valuable to Philly, as they can just match whatever the market dictates without worrying about cap space; it's not as though they need to save their cap space for Kevin Durant. For the Celtics, though, cap space is a key asset and we may be reluctant to match a $20m offer for Noel next summer.

[mef730]

Smart will be asking price
C's will go Rozier, 16, 35 and 45.

That's about the maximum I would pay, although I'm sure Philly would ask for one of our three starting guards, Crowder or a Brooklyn pick. I would substitute Hunter and 31 for Rozier, 35 and 45, but would do the Rozier+ package if that's what it took to make the deal.

RFA at the end of next year is a big deal, especially with the salary cap going into overdrive.

Injuries have to be factored in. No way around that one.

Noel isn't an all-star. He is one of the top defensive guys in the league, but he doesn't merit what Philly will first ask.

Mike