Author Topic: NFL 2020 Season  (Read 68720 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #450 on: January 11, 2021, 11:01:35 AM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29510
  • Tommy Points: 2923
  • On To Banner 18!
After this loss, Ben needs to retire and Tomlin and the rest of his coaching staff need to be fired immediately. One of the most overrated coaches in the NFL, and the biggest underachiever I think I've ever seen. After 2010, the Steelers have constantly played down to their competition and choked in hilarious fashion. Getting Tebow'd in 2011, losing at home to the Ravens in the wild card game in 2014, letting Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette torch you for 45 points in 2017, and now this loss. How many more embarrassments do the Steelers have to face before they realize that Tomlin is an issue?

I think Tomlin's a great coach still. But yeah he's definitely overrated, especially by the media.

With that said, I personally put the bulk of the blame on the Pittsburgh players for all the choking since 2010. In a way, Tomlin should be praised for putting up with Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell for as long as he did despite their egos and especially Antonio Brown's troubles lol. Then you have Big Ben at times playing like he doesn't care over the years, JuJu being in the spotlight for a lot of the wrong reasons in 2020, etc.

Yeah, I get that it's the coach's responsibility to try and reel everyone in, but PIT has had quite a few players with egos over the years and it's probably just hard to contain. I mean, AB literally livestreamed the locker room after their win over KC in 2016 and Tomlin said something when he didn't realize he was being recorded that was taken the wrong way (sounded like a chirp at their next opponent, but that's common in all locker rooms). Then Le'Veon Bell acting cocky before the Jaguars playoff game which they lost and now JuJu doing the same against Cleveland and losing just days later.

If anything, Tomlin probably should have run a tighter ship like Belichick does, but in general Tomlin does seem like a "players coach" and is loose, which is also why a lot of players in the league love him.
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #451 on: January 11, 2021, 12:28:10 PM »

Offline chicagoceltic

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1155
  • Tommy Points: 208
After this loss, Ben needs to retire and Tomlin and the rest of his coaching staff need to be fired immediately. One of the most overrated coaches in the NFL, and the biggest underachiever I think I've ever seen. After 2010, the Steelers have constantly played down to their competition and choked in hilarious fashion. Getting Tebow'd in 2011, losing at home to the Ravens in the wild card game in 2014, letting Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette torch you for 45 points in 2017, and now this loss. How many more embarrassments do the Steelers have to face before they realize that Tomlin is an issue?

I think Tomlin's a great coach still. But yeah he's definitely overrated, especially by the media. I am not a Steelers fan (my wife is and I am in Steeler country) but I have always liked and respected Mike Tomlin.

With that said, I personally put the bulk of the blame on the Pittsburgh players for all the choking since 2010. In a way, Tomlin should be praised for putting up with Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell for as long as he did despite their egos and especially Antonio Brown's troubles lol. Then you have Big Ben at times playing like he doesn't care over the years, JuJu being in the spotlight for a lot of the wrong reasons in 2020, etc.

Yeah, I get that it's the coach's responsibility to try and reel everyone in, but PIT has had quite a few players with egos over the years and it's probably just hard to contain. I mean, AB literally livestreamed the locker room after their win over KC in 2016 and Tomlin said something when he didn't realize he was being recorded that was taken the wrong way (sounded like a chirp at their next opponent, but that's common in all locker rooms). Then Le'Veon Bell acting cocky before the Jaguars playoff game which they lost and now JuJu doing the same against Cleveland and losing just days later.

If anything, Tomlin probably should have run a tighter ship like Belichick does, but in general Tomlin does seem like a "players coach" and is loose, which is also why a lot of players in the league love him.
To me Tomlin has always come across as a great "leader of men" but not really a great coach.
Pub Draft

Sam N Ella's

At the Bar: The Most Interesting Man in the World
At the Door:  Hugh Hefner
On Stage:  O.A.R., Louis C.K., EDGAR! Special Drinks:  Irish Car Bomb, Martinis On Tap: Lite, Beamish, 3 Floyds Seasonal, Chimay Grand Reserve, Spotted Cow

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #452 on: January 11, 2021, 12:38:03 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48120
  • Tommy Points: 8794
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
Going back to when Tomlin was first hired, he has a 3-8 record versus New England and it's because he consistently didn't have his team ready to play and because he stubbornly trotted out zone coverage for entire games and the Pats picked apart that zone.

That's terrible coaching. I always thought Tomlin underachieved given the massive amount of talent Pittsburgh has had since Tomlin came aboard.

I would purge Tomlin and Big Ben Dover and give things a chance with a different coach and QB.

How does that Pittsburgh team start 11-0 then finish the season 1-5? Gotta get rid of Tomlin and Ben.

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #453 on: January 11, 2021, 01:00:34 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

  • Paul Pierce
  • ***************************
  • Posts: 27260
  • Tommy Points: 867
Article: Patriots should add Taylor Heinicke to list of options at QB for 2021

https://www.radio.com/weei/sports/patriots/patriots-should-add-taylor-heinicke-to-list-of-options-at-qb

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #454 on: January 11, 2021, 02:26:49 PM »

Online Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
  • Posts: 30933
  • Tommy Points: 1607
  • What a Pub Should Be
Eagles just fired Pederson 3 years after winning a Super Bowl. 


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #455 on: January 11, 2021, 02:32:33 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29510
  • Tommy Points: 2923
  • On To Banner 18!
Article: Patriots should add Taylor Heinicke to list of options at QB for 2021

https://www.radio.com/weei/sports/patriots/patriots-should-add-taylor-heinicke-to-list-of-options-at-qb

Funny enough, they had him on the team before.

I believe he was on NE's Practice Squad the year(s) they had Brady, Jimmy G. and Brissett.
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #456 on: January 11, 2021, 02:46:01 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
Colts coach probably cost them at least a chance to win in OT. Terrible decisions going for a 4th and goal from the 5 and going for a two point conversion when it wasn't necessary in the 2nd half. Both decisions came away with zero points. The game should really have gone to OT without those dumb decisions.
shortish FG hit the upright and missed also
Yeah, but that's just a bad kick. Not putting up 4 easy points on a PAT kick and a 22 yard field goal is horrendous coaching. Those decisions cost the team 4 easy points. That's inexcusable in the playoffs.
The kicker had just missed a FG that was basically from XP range.  I don't mind the failed 2 point attempt at all.  There is in fact studies that show NFL teams should always go for 2 (except in the rare situations with like no time left and down by 1 or tied).  It will work out for more points over time if they just go for 2, especially when you have a shaky kicker.  They also got a 2 point conversion after that.  So if they kicked the 1st, they would have kicked the 2nd and ended up with the exact same amount of points. 

As for the 4th and 4, it was with under 2 minutes in the half.  Now sure probably should have kicked the FG, but if the defense doesn't give up a 96 yard drive in a minute and a half it wouldn't have mattered.  You have to figure your defense can stop them, you get the ball back and get a FG out of it anyway.  Giving up a 96 yard drive in that short amount of time was the problem there.
You are completely wrong except for the evening out with the made 2 point conversion and any good head football coach would tell you so. Going for the original two point conversion and the 4th and goal from the 4-5 yard line were just idiotic coaching decisions. And they most likely cost the Colts the game.
except they got another 2 point conversion.  so they got 14 points from 2 TD's.  Unless you are actually going to argue that they would have gone for 2 down 4 on the second one they ended up in the exact same situation and the first one failing didn't affect the outcome of the game at all.

And as I said, they should have kicked the FG, but Reich is an aggressive coach and that fits his M.O.  If the defense would have stopped them there, they would have gotten the ball back and probably ended up with a FG or a TD.  The defense didn't stop them though and let the Bills go 96 yards in under 2 minutes.  The inability to stop them from getting that TD is what cost them the game.
ESPN agrees with me.  The calls weren't the reason the Colts lost.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30687298/nfl-wild-card-weekend-playoff-questions-how-did-browns-beat-steelers-happened-russell-wilson

Quote
Did Frank Reich cost the Colts the game?
The Colts have to be proud of what they showed on the road as underdogs against the Bills. Indy dominated the game for most of the first half, battled back repeatedly in the second half, and came within a few inches of winning. If a pair of shoestring catches by Gabriel Davis go the other way or a Rodrigo Blankenship field goal attempt bounces off the goal post and in, the Colts might be getting ready to play the Chiefs this weekend.

Instead, Indianapolis will be spending the rest of the winter at home, and some are blaming coach Frank Reich's reliance on analytics for the enforced vacation. Reich made two notable and seemingly controversial calls in this game. I don't think either one actually hurt Indianapolis' chances of winning.

Start with the series at the end of the first half. Coming out of the two-minute warning and facing a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Reich sent in a crack toss, where a wide receiver comes off the edge to block a lineman and an offensive lineman pulls outside to take out a cornerback. The play wasn't executed well and lost 3 yards. You can take issue with the playcall, although I suspect the Bills thought the Colts were going to run between the tackles before the snap.

Most coaches would kick a field goal on fourth-and-4, but facing one of the best offenses in the league, Reich kept his offense on the field and went for it. This play worked much better, as the Colts got Michael Pittman Jr. open in the corner of the end zone for a touchdown, only for Philip Rivers' throw to narrowly elude the rookie wideout. ESPN's win probability model had this essentially as a wash, with Reich correct to make either call.

The Colts passed up a shot at three points in a game they ended up losing by three, which made for some easy criticism at the end of the day. The Bills also drove 96 yards for a touchdown to take the lead, which led to the arguments that Indy handed the momentum to the Bills with their goal-line stop. I'm skeptical of those arguments. For one, the Bills needed two shoestring catches and a successful hard count on fourth down to move the ball down the field for that touchdown. Two, when I looked at this issue in 2013, teams that took over the ball inside their own 5-yard line after a momentum-shifting defensive stop didn't score any more frequently than teams that took over in the same location after a punt. Given that Indy was playing one of the best offenses in football, it was smart to try to go for touchdowns, not field goals.

Later in the game, we saw the Colts pursue an even more exotic path. They scored a touchdown down 14 in the fourth quarter and sent out their extra point team. After the Bills went offside, though, Reich sent out his offense and tried to convert on a 2-pointer from the 1-yard line. It's not typical for offenses to go for two when they can make it a seven-point game, and the Colts were stuffed on a Jonathan Taylor run.

Thankfully, my colleague Seth Walder has already written a lengthy piece answering all of your questions about why a team would try to go for two as opposed to simply taking the extra point. The short answer is that a team is more likely to hit at least one of its two two-point attempts than it is to miss two consecutive 2-point tries. If a team hits the first 2-pointer, it can take the lead by kicking an extra point on its second try. If it fails on the first one, it can get right back where it was by succeeding on a second 2-point conversion after its next touchdown.

It's telling that Reich only went for the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, where his chances of converting are a tad better than the typical 2-point play. Ironically, the Colts didn't convert the play from the 1-yard line, but then hit on the 2-pointer on the next touchdown to end up exactly where they would have been if they had just kicked the two extra points. This decision didn't end up impacting the game.

What both of these plays attack -- and where they can frustrate traditional football fans -- is how games are typically coached. Many coaching decisions are built around not losing and extending the game for as long as possible. Coaches get criticized for going for two too early or "chasing points" to try to attack a certain score before the fourth quarter. At the same time, they're also criticized by the same people for not kicking field goals or extra points to ensure that a one-possession game becomes a two-possession game in the same circumstances. We also often treat that conservative play, like the field goal or the extra point, as a sure thing when it's not.

Reich's decisions Saturday were both made with an emphasis on maximizing his team's chances of winning, not going to overtime. Scoring a touchdown against one of the league's best offenses meant much more than coming away with three points, and the chances that the Bills would then drive downfield for a long touchdown before the end of the half were relatively small. Going for two down 14 gave the Colts the possibility of winning in regulation as opposed to extending the game and going into overtime, which is a good idea for a team coming into a game as a significant underdog. Those plays didn't necessarily work, but Blankenship also missed a 33-yard field goal. If a team doesn't execute well, it's not going to win, regardless of which strategies it pursues. Reich might want to take back that third-and-goal pitch call, but he doesn't have anything else to apologize for after Saturday's loss.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #457 on: January 11, 2021, 05:45:14 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48120
  • Tommy Points: 8794
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
Colts coach probably cost them at least a chance to win in OT. Terrible decisions going for a 4th and goal from the 5 and going for a two point conversion when it wasn't necessary in the 2nd half. Both decisions came away with zero points. The game should really have gone to OT without those dumb decisions.
shortish FG hit the upright and missed also
Yeah, but that's just a bad kick. Not putting up 4 easy points on a PAT kick and a 22 yard field goal is horrendous coaching. Those decisions cost the team 4 easy points. That's inexcusable in the playoffs.
The kicker had just missed a FG that was basically from XP range.  I don't mind the failed 2 point attempt at all.  There is in fact studies that show NFL teams should always go for 2 (except in the rare situations with like no time left and down by 1 or tied).  It will work out for more points over time if they just go for 2, especially when you have a shaky kicker.  They also got a 2 point conversion after that.  So if they kicked the 1st, they would have kicked the 2nd and ended up with the exact same amount of points. 

As for the 4th and 4, it was with under 2 minutes in the half.  Now sure probably should have kicked the FG, but if the defense doesn't give up a 96 yard drive in a minute and a half it wouldn't have mattered.  You have to figure your defense can stop them, you get the ball back and get a FG out of it anyway.  Giving up a 96 yard drive in that short amount of time was the problem there.
You are completely wrong except for the evening out with the made 2 point conversion and any good head football coach would tell you so. Going for the original two point conversion and the 4th and goal from the 4-5 yard line were just idiotic coaching decisions. And they most likely cost the Colts the game.
except they got another 2 point conversion.  so they got 14 points from 2 TD's.  Unless you are actually going to argue that they would have gone for 2 down 4 on the second one they ended up in the exact same situation and the first one failing didn't affect the outcome of the game at all.

And as I said, they should have kicked the FG, but Reich is an aggressive coach and that fits his M.O.  If the defense would have stopped them there, they would have gotten the ball back and probably ended up with a FG or a TD.  The defense didn't stop them though and let the Bills go 96 yards in under 2 minutes.  The inability to stop them from getting that TD is what cost them the game.
ESPN agrees with me.  The calls weren't the reason the Colts lost.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30687298/nfl-wild-card-weekend-playoff-questions-how-did-browns-beat-steelers-happened-russell-wilson

Quote
Did Frank Reich cost the Colts the game?
The Colts have to be proud of what they showed on the road as underdogs against the Bills. Indy dominated the game for most of the first half, battled back repeatedly in the second half, and came within a few inches of winning. If a pair of shoestring catches by Gabriel Davis go the other way or a Rodrigo Blankenship field goal attempt bounces off the goal post and in, the Colts might be getting ready to play the Chiefs this weekend.

Instead, Indianapolis will be spending the rest of the winter at home, and some are blaming coach Frank Reich's reliance on analytics for the enforced vacation. Reich made two notable and seemingly controversial calls in this game. I don't think either one actually hurt Indianapolis' chances of winning.

Start with the series at the end of the first half. Coming out of the two-minute warning and facing a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Reich sent in a crack toss, where a wide receiver comes off the edge to block a lineman and an offensive lineman pulls outside to take out a cornerback. The play wasn't executed well and lost 3 yards. You can take issue with the playcall, although I suspect the Bills thought the Colts were going to run between the tackles before the snap.

Most coaches would kick a field goal on fourth-and-4, but facing one of the best offenses in the league, Reich kept his offense on the field and went for it. This play worked much better, as the Colts got Michael Pittman Jr. open in the corner of the end zone for a touchdown, only for Philip Rivers' throw to narrowly elude the rookie wideout. ESPN's win probability model had this essentially as a wash, with Reich correct to make either call.

The Colts passed up a shot at three points in a game they ended up losing by three, which made for some easy criticism at the end of the day. The Bills also drove 96 yards for a touchdown to take the lead, which led to the arguments that Indy handed the momentum to the Bills with their goal-line stop. I'm skeptical of those arguments. For one, the Bills needed two shoestring catches and a successful hard count on fourth down to move the ball down the field for that touchdown. Two, when I looked at this issue in 2013, teams that took over the ball inside their own 5-yard line after a momentum-shifting defensive stop didn't score any more frequently than teams that took over in the same location after a punt. Given that Indy was playing one of the best offenses in football, it was smart to try to go for touchdowns, not field goals.

Later in the game, we saw the Colts pursue an even more exotic path. They scored a touchdown down 14 in the fourth quarter and sent out their extra point team. After the Bills went offside, though, Reich sent out his offense and tried to convert on a 2-pointer from the 1-yard line. It's not typical for offenses to go for two when they can make it a seven-point game, and the Colts were stuffed on a Jonathan Taylor run.

Thankfully, my colleague Seth Walder has already written a lengthy piece answering all of your questions about why a team would try to go for two as opposed to simply taking the extra point. The short answer is that a team is more likely to hit at least one of its two two-point attempts than it is to miss two consecutive 2-point tries. If a team hits the first 2-pointer, it can take the lead by kicking an extra point on its second try. If it fails on the first one, it can get right back where it was by succeeding on a second 2-point conversion after its next touchdown.

It's telling that Reich only went for the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, where his chances of converting are a tad better than the typical 2-point play. Ironically, the Colts didn't convert the play from the 1-yard line, but then hit on the 2-pointer on the next touchdown to end up exactly where they would have been if they had just kicked the two extra points. This decision didn't end up impacting the game.

What both of these plays attack -- and where they can frustrate traditional football fans -- is how games are typically coached. Many coaching decisions are built around not losing and extending the game for as long as possible. Coaches get criticized for going for two too early or "chasing points" to try to attack a certain score before the fourth quarter. At the same time, they're also criticized by the same people for not kicking field goals or extra points to ensure that a one-possession game becomes a two-possession game in the same circumstances. We also often treat that conservative play, like the field goal or the extra point, as a sure thing when it's not.

Reich's decisions Saturday were both made with an emphasis on maximizing his team's chances of winning, not going to overtime. Scoring a touchdown against one of the league's best offenses meant much more than coming away with three points, and the chances that the Bills would then drive downfield for a long touchdown before the end of the half were relatively small. Going for two down 14 gave the Colts the possibility of winning in regulation as opposed to extending the game and going into overtime, which is a good idea for a team coming into a game as a significant underdog. Those plays didn't necessarily work, but Blankenship also missed a 33-yard field goal. If a team doesn't execute well, it's not going to win, regardless of which strategies it pursues. Reich might want to take back that third-and-goal pitch call, but he doesn't have anything else to apologize for after Saturday's loss.
That's one man's opinion. All you did was find one guy to agree with you. There is a reason he is writing the article, it's because so, so, so many more people and coaches have the opposite opinion. He all but admits it in the article.

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #458 on: January 11, 2021, 07:15:05 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29510
  • Tommy Points: 2923
  • On To Banner 18!
After this loss, Ben needs to retire and Tomlin and the rest of his coaching staff need to be fired immediately. One of the most overrated coaches in the NFL, and the biggest underachiever I think I've ever seen. After 2010, the Steelers have constantly played down to their competition and choked in hilarious fashion. Getting Tebow'd in 2011, losing at home to the Ravens in the wild card game in 2014, letting Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette torch you for 45 points in 2017, and now this loss. How many more embarrassments do the Steelers have to face before they realize that Tomlin is an issue?

I think Tomlin's a great coach still. But yeah he's definitely overrated, especially by the media. I am not a Steelers fan (my wife is and I am in Steeler country) but I have always liked and respected Mike Tomlin.

With that said, I personally put the bulk of the blame on the Pittsburgh players for all the choking since 2010. In a way, Tomlin should be praised for putting up with Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell for as long as he did despite their egos and especially Antonio Brown's troubles lol. Then you have Big Ben at times playing like he doesn't care over the years, JuJu being in the spotlight for a lot of the wrong reasons in 2020, etc.

Yeah, I get that it's the coach's responsibility to try and reel everyone in, but PIT has had quite a few players with egos over the years and it's probably just hard to contain. I mean, AB literally livestreamed the locker room after their win over KC in 2016 and Tomlin said something when he didn't realize he was being recorded that was taken the wrong way (sounded like a chirp at their next opponent, but that's common in all locker rooms). Then Le'Veon Bell acting cocky before the Jaguars playoff game which they lost and now JuJu doing the same against Cleveland and losing just days later.

If anything, Tomlin probably should have run a tighter ship like Belichick does, but in general Tomlin does seem like a "players coach" and is loose, which is also why a lot of players in the league love him.
To me Tomlin has always come across as a great "leader of men" but not really a great coach.

And they proved me right again. Seriously Tomlin needs to reign them in ASAP

"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #459 on: January 11, 2021, 08:42:13 PM »

Online Goldstar88

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10672
  • Tommy Points: 1416
Well, I guess this season wasn’t a complete loss for Bill. Consolation prize? Lol

“Donald Trump plans to award Bill Belichick the Presidential Medal of Freedom before term ends, per report”


https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2021/01/10/bill-belichick-donald-trump-presidential-medal-of-freedom

If he accepts that award, he is going to lose the Patriots locker room and any chances of landing free agents. He needs to think twice about that.

Hate Trump for deciding to hand him that award out of everyone and anyone.

Guess he thought twice lol

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30694658/new-england-patriots-coach-bill-belichick-accept-presidential-medal-freedom-donald-trump
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
Quote
At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #460 on: January 11, 2021, 08:47:33 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
Colts coach probably cost them at least a chance to win in OT. Terrible decisions going for a 4th and goal from the 5 and going for a two point conversion when it wasn't necessary in the 2nd half. Both decisions came away with zero points. The game should really have gone to OT without those dumb decisions.
shortish FG hit the upright and missed also
Yeah, but that's just a bad kick. Not putting up 4 easy points on a PAT kick and a 22 yard field goal is horrendous coaching. Those decisions cost the team 4 easy points. That's inexcusable in the playoffs.
The kicker had just missed a FG that was basically from XP range.  I don't mind the failed 2 point attempt at all.  There is in fact studies that show NFL teams should always go for 2 (except in the rare situations with like no time left and down by 1 or tied).  It will work out for more points over time if they just go for 2, especially when you have a shaky kicker.  They also got a 2 point conversion after that.  So if they kicked the 1st, they would have kicked the 2nd and ended up with the exact same amount of points. 

As for the 4th and 4, it was with under 2 minutes in the half.  Now sure probably should have kicked the FG, but if the defense doesn't give up a 96 yard drive in a minute and a half it wouldn't have mattered.  You have to figure your defense can stop them, you get the ball back and get a FG out of it anyway.  Giving up a 96 yard drive in that short amount of time was the problem there.
You are completely wrong except for the evening out with the made 2 point conversion and any good head football coach would tell you so. Going for the original two point conversion and the 4th and goal from the 4-5 yard line were just idiotic coaching decisions. And they most likely cost the Colts the game.
except they got another 2 point conversion.  so they got 14 points from 2 TD's.  Unless you are actually going to argue that they would have gone for 2 down 4 on the second one they ended up in the exact same situation and the first one failing didn't affect the outcome of the game at all.

And as I said, they should have kicked the FG, but Reich is an aggressive coach and that fits his M.O.  If the defense would have stopped them there, they would have gotten the ball back and probably ended up with a FG or a TD.  The defense didn't stop them though and let the Bills go 96 yards in under 2 minutes.  The inability to stop them from getting that TD is what cost them the game.
ESPN agrees with me.  The calls weren't the reason the Colts lost.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30687298/nfl-wild-card-weekend-playoff-questions-how-did-browns-beat-steelers-happened-russell-wilson

Quote
Did Frank Reich cost the Colts the game?
The Colts have to be proud of what they showed on the road as underdogs against the Bills. Indy dominated the game for most of the first half, battled back repeatedly in the second half, and came within a few inches of winning. If a pair of shoestring catches by Gabriel Davis go the other way or a Rodrigo Blankenship field goal attempt bounces off the goal post and in, the Colts might be getting ready to play the Chiefs this weekend.

Instead, Indianapolis will be spending the rest of the winter at home, and some are blaming coach Frank Reich's reliance on analytics for the enforced vacation. Reich made two notable and seemingly controversial calls in this game. I don't think either one actually hurt Indianapolis' chances of winning.

Start with the series at the end of the first half. Coming out of the two-minute warning and facing a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, Reich sent in a crack toss, where a wide receiver comes off the edge to block a lineman and an offensive lineman pulls outside to take out a cornerback. The play wasn't executed well and lost 3 yards. You can take issue with the playcall, although I suspect the Bills thought the Colts were going to run between the tackles before the snap.

Most coaches would kick a field goal on fourth-and-4, but facing one of the best offenses in the league, Reich kept his offense on the field and went for it. This play worked much better, as the Colts got Michael Pittman Jr. open in the corner of the end zone for a touchdown, only for Philip Rivers' throw to narrowly elude the rookie wideout. ESPN's win probability model had this essentially as a wash, with Reich correct to make either call.

The Colts passed up a shot at three points in a game they ended up losing by three, which made for some easy criticism at the end of the day. The Bills also drove 96 yards for a touchdown to take the lead, which led to the arguments that Indy handed the momentum to the Bills with their goal-line stop. I'm skeptical of those arguments. For one, the Bills needed two shoestring catches and a successful hard count on fourth down to move the ball down the field for that touchdown. Two, when I looked at this issue in 2013, teams that took over the ball inside their own 5-yard line after a momentum-shifting defensive stop didn't score any more frequently than teams that took over in the same location after a punt. Given that Indy was playing one of the best offenses in football, it was smart to try to go for touchdowns, not field goals.

Later in the game, we saw the Colts pursue an even more exotic path. They scored a touchdown down 14 in the fourth quarter and sent out their extra point team. After the Bills went offside, though, Reich sent out his offense and tried to convert on a 2-pointer from the 1-yard line. It's not typical for offenses to go for two when they can make it a seven-point game, and the Colts were stuffed on a Jonathan Taylor run.

Thankfully, my colleague Seth Walder has already written a lengthy piece answering all of your questions about why a team would try to go for two as opposed to simply taking the extra point. The short answer is that a team is more likely to hit at least one of its two two-point attempts than it is to miss two consecutive 2-point tries. If a team hits the first 2-pointer, it can take the lead by kicking an extra point on its second try. If it fails on the first one, it can get right back where it was by succeeding on a second 2-point conversion after its next touchdown.

It's telling that Reich only went for the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, where his chances of converting are a tad better than the typical 2-point play. Ironically, the Colts didn't convert the play from the 1-yard line, but then hit on the 2-pointer on the next touchdown to end up exactly where they would have been if they had just kicked the two extra points. This decision didn't end up impacting the game.

What both of these plays attack -- and where they can frustrate traditional football fans -- is how games are typically coached. Many coaching decisions are built around not losing and extending the game for as long as possible. Coaches get criticized for going for two too early or "chasing points" to try to attack a certain score before the fourth quarter. At the same time, they're also criticized by the same people for not kicking field goals or extra points to ensure that a one-possession game becomes a two-possession game in the same circumstances. We also often treat that conservative play, like the field goal or the extra point, as a sure thing when it's not.

Reich's decisions Saturday were both made with an emphasis on maximizing his team's chances of winning, not going to overtime. Scoring a touchdown against one of the league's best offenses meant much more than coming away with three points, and the chances that the Bills would then drive downfield for a long touchdown before the end of the half were relatively small. Going for two down 14 gave the Colts the possibility of winning in regulation as opposed to extending the game and going into overtime, which is a good idea for a team coming into a game as a significant underdog. Those plays didn't necessarily work, but Blankenship also missed a 33-yard field goal. If a team doesn't execute well, it's not going to win, regardless of which strategies it pursues. Reich might want to take back that third-and-goal pitch call, but he doesn't have anything else to apologize for after Saturday's loss.
That's one man's opinion. All you did was find one guy to agree with you. There is a reason he is writing the article, it's because so, so, so many more people and coaches have the opposite opinion. He all but admits it in the article.
except it wasn't just one guy.  Here is the Indy Star.  Notice they say their win probability actually would have gone down kicking the FG as opposed to going for it on 4th down. Same with the 2 point attempt.  https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2021/01/09/colts-vs-bills-why-frank-reich-made-right-decision-fourth-and-goal-4/6609839002/

The problem wasn't that the Colts went for it on 4th down, it was that they let the Bills go 96 yards in 1.5 minutes after that. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #461 on: January 16, 2021, 04:39:40 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16057
  • Tommy Points: 990
Davante Adams already chirping with Jalen Ramsey on pregame.

Don't like neither team. But I would hate to see Aaron Rodgers win a game.


#JTJB (Just Trade Jaylen Brown)
#JFJM (Just Fire Joe Mazzulla)

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #462 on: January 16, 2021, 05:20:46 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48120
  • Tommy Points: 8794
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
Am I the only one that thinks that there appears to be an awful lot of fans in the stands and a whole lot not socially distanced? Are Green Bay's Covid numbers really good to allow it?

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #463 on: January 16, 2021, 05:53:19 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16057
  • Tommy Points: 990
Am I the only one that thinks that there appears to be an awful lot of fans in the stands and a whole lot not socially distanced? Are Green Bay's Covid numbers really good to allow it?

I know I saw Tennessee fans last week that looked like it filled up the whole stadium. Expect the numbers to rise significantly lol. Sucks for them, they had to watch their home team lose to Baltimore


#JTJB (Just Trade Jaylen Brown)
#JFJM (Just Fire Joe Mazzulla)

Re: NFL 2020 Season
« Reply #464 on: January 16, 2021, 06:39:57 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29510
  • Tommy Points: 2923
  • On To Banner 18!
Am I the only one that thinks that there appears to be an awful lot of fans in the stands and a whole lot not socially distanced? Are Green Bay's Covid numbers really good to allow it?

Just wait until tomorrow. I believe Arrowhead has their capacity at 20%, so nearly 16,000+ fans
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller