Did I just make a bad Fantasy Baseball Trade?

[Gainesville Celtic]

I'm much more confident in Fantasy Basketball, but some friends needed a 12th in their baseball keeper league (5 keepers).


I was offered AJ Burnett + Fernando Rodney for Chad Billingsly. The other team has 4 other closers with more saves than Rodney.


I'm like last in saves and in 7th place.  Since its a keeper league --- my keepers are prob. Cabrera, J.Upton, Beckett, Billingsly, Votto (or a young pitcher like Porcello, Scherzer) --- I was reluctant to give up the 24 y.o. Billingsly for Burnett.

I countered with Billingsly for Y. Gallardo + Rodney --- thinking Gallardo is a good young pitcher ---- and he acccpeted.


Is this a case of both teams making out OK, or did I just mess up.  Neitehr Gallardo nor Billingsly has been very good over the last month, despite having very good seasons.

[Donoghus]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

I was afraid of that when he accepted the deal so quickly.... baseball stinks!

[Greenbean]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

I would agree but when you are keeping pitchers there is no sure thing outside of Halladay or Johan year to year. I am in  a big money keeper leaque (3 keeps) and NEVER keep pitchers. Now my keepers to pick from this year are Prince Fielder, Evan Longoria and both Uptons. By never taking a pitcher I now have the best offense almost every year, while using the waiver wire combined with some lucky picks every year to build a pitching staff. If you have a chance to pick up some saves, then I would take the chance even though Gallardo has an injury history because IMO every pitcher is an injury or off-year risk. Just look at Beckett. Every year at my draft, this guy in my league tries to trade him to me as a keeper for the A plus prospect I just drafted. Last year he offered him to me for Longoria. I declined, Beckett had an off year, I won the championship and now have a first round pick every year in my league locked up. Sorry for the long response but in short...GOOD TRADE!

[hpantazo]

how about this trade in a non-keeper, head to head league:

I trade: Jonathan Papelbon

receive: Shane Victorino

[Donoghus]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

I would agree but when you are keeping pitchers there is no sure thing outside of Halladay or Johan year to year. I am in  a big money keeper leaque (3 keeps) and NEVER keep pitchers. Now my keepers to pick from this year are Prince Fielder, Evan Longoria and both Uptons. By never taking a pitcher I now have the best offense almost every year, while using the waiver wire combined with some lucky picks every year to build a pitching staff. If you have a chance to pick up some saves, then I would take the chance even though Gallardo has an injury history because IMO every pitcher is an injury or off-year risk. Just look at Beckett. Every year at my draft, this guy in my league tries to trade him to me as a keeper for the A plus prospect I just drafted. Last year he offered him to me for Longoria. I declined, Beckett had an off year, I won the championship and now have a first round pick every year in my league locked up. Sorry for the long response but in short...GOOD TRADE!

True about the "no sure thing" idea but would you rather keep Billingsley or Gallardo?  Certainly, you wouldn't want to keep a reliever like Rodney.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

I would agree but when you are keeping pitchers there is no sure thing outside of Halladay or Johan year to year. I am in  a big money keeper leaque (3 keeps) and NEVER keep pitchers. Now my keepers to pick from this year are Prince Fielder, Evan Longoria and both Uptons. By never taking a pitcher I now have the best offense almost every year, while using the waiver wire combined with some lucky picks every year to build a pitching staff. If you have a chance to pick up some saves, then I would take the chance even though Gallardo has an injury history because IMO every pitcher is an injury or off-year risk. Just look at Beckett. Every year at my draft, this guy in my league tries to trade him to me as a keeper for the A plus prospect I just drafted. Last year he offered him to me for Longoria. I declined, Beckett had an off year, I won the championship and now have a first round pick every year in my league locked up. Sorry for the long response but in short...GOOD TRADE!

TP for making me feel less worried about the deal

Guess I probably should have countered w/ Beckett for Gallardo/Rodney...

The guys in my league seem to really value pitching, so I feel like of 5 keepers 1 has to be a top-line pitcher, but maybe i could use the strategy you're saying to keep:

J. UPton
Cabrera
McCann (forgot about him )
Votto

Pedroia would be the next best hitter to keep over Beckett i guess.

TP for you too Don.

[Greenbean]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

I would agree but when you are keeping pitchers there is no sure thing outside of Halladay or Johan year to year. I am in  a big money keeper leaque (3 keeps) and NEVER keep pitchers. Now my keepers to pick from this year are Prince Fielder, Evan Longoria and both Uptons. By never taking a pitcher I now have the best offense almost every year, while using the waiver wire combined with some lucky picks every year to build a pitching staff. If you have a chance to pick up some saves, then I would take the chance even though Gallardo has an injury history because IMO every pitcher is an injury or off-year risk. Just look at Beckett. Every year at my draft, this guy in my league tries to trade him to me as a keeper for the A plus prospect I just drafted. Last year he offered him to me for Longoria. I declined, Beckett had an off year, I won the championship and now have a first round pick every year in my league locked up. Sorry for the long response but in short...GOOD TRADE!

True about the "no sure thing" idea but would you rather keep Billingsley or Gallardo?  Certainly, you wouldn't want to keep a reliever like Rodney.

Oh I would definitely rather keep Billingsly over Gallardo long term but if he really needs saves this season and thinks maybe Rodney can put him over the top and help him make the playoffs, I would do it. That is why I love keeper leagues. You really feel like a general manager of a big league club at the trading deadline deciding whether to be a buyer or a seller.

[action781]

On keeping pitchers...

In my league a lot of managers feel similarly about keeping pitchers - don't do it.

Our league you can keep up to 5 players and give up the round pick in the draft where you drafted him the previous year.  I got Lincecum in round 8 two years ago.     And my team has dominated

[Greenbean]

I would've held on to Billingsley. 

Rodney is pretty legit but Gollardo is an injury risk and I don't think his ceiling is anywhere close to Billingsley.

I would agree but when you are keeping pitchers there is no sure thing outside of Halladay or Johan year to year. I am in  a big money keeper leaque (3 keeps) and NEVER keep pitchers. Now my keepers to pick from this year are Prince Fielder, Evan Longoria and both Uptons. By never taking a pitcher I now have the best offense almost every year, while using the waiver wire combined with some lucky picks every year to build a pitching staff. If you have a chance to pick up some saves, then I would take the chance even though Gallardo has an injury history because IMO every pitcher is an injury or off-year risk. Just look at Beckett. Every year at my draft, this guy in my league tries to trade him to me as a keeper for the A plus prospect I just drafted. Last year he offered him to me for Longoria. I declined, Beckett had an off year, I won the championship and now have a first round pick every year in my league locked up. Sorry for the long response but in short...GOOD TRADE!

True about the "no sure thing" idea but would you rather keep Billingsley or Gallardo?  Certainly, you wouldn't want to keep a reliever like Rodney.

Oh I would definitely rather keep Billingsly over Gallardo long term but if he really needs saves this season and thinks maybe Rodney can put him over the top and help him make the playoffs, I would do it. That is why I love keeper leagues. You really feel like a general manager of a big league club at the trading deadline deciding whether to be a buyer or a seller.

Yeah I guess with 5 keepers one super consistent pitcher would be okay, but only a Lincecome type (and even with him his small stature and violent deliver worry me). I would say just look at the most important positions in your league and its scoring system. If you can fill those positions with keepers then you can take more chances in the draft on young pitchers. As far as Pedroia goes dont forget his value at 2nd base. The same goes to McCann at catcher.

[Redz]

On keeping pitchers...

In my league a lot of managers feel similarly about keeping pitchers - don't do it.

Our league you can keep up to 5 players and give up the round pick in the draft where you drafted him the previous year.  I got Lincecum in round 8 two years ago.     And my team has dominated

I'd agree with that.  Especially where you're only keeping 5 guys.  Look at what Beckett has done the last 4 seasons.  There are very few sure bets with pitchers.

[MBz]

how about this trade in a non-keeper, head to head league:

I trade: Jonathan Papelbon

receive: Shane Victorino

Not a fan, if Victorino was stealing more bases, sure, but he hasn't been.  He gives you batting average and runs, you can get that else where, you shouldn't have to give up a top notch closer for that.

[jimmyt]

how about this trade in a non-keeper, head to head league:

I trade: Jonathan Papelbon

receive: Shane Victorino

It all depends really. If your team has ample closers, and you need an OF, then it is a fine trade. I never really trade for relievers, because they come and go so often. Think about how many times this season alone there have been opportunities to pick up closers. If you can add victorino and still be competitive in saves, good trade for you.

[yall hate]

I'm much more confident in Fantasy Basketball, but some friends needed a 12th in their baseball keeper league (5 keepers).


I was offered AJ Burnett + Fernando Rodney for Chad Billingsly. The other team has 4 other closers with more saves than Rodney.


I'm like last in saves and in 7th place.  Since its a keeper league --- my keepers are prob. Cabrera, J.Upton, Beckett, Billingsly, Votto (or a young pitcher like Porcello, Scherzer) --- I was reluctant to give up the 24 y.o. Billingsly for Burnett.

I countered with Billingsly for Y. Gallardo + Rodney --- thinking Gallardo is a good young pitcher ---- and he acccpeted.


Is this a case of both teams making out OK, or did I just mess up.  Neitehr Gallardo nor Billingsly has been very good over the last month, despite having very good seasons.

I dont think it is that bad of a trade for you (Billingsly is the better player, but Gallardo has periods of dominance). Rodney is kind of meh. 

I am fairly neutral on the trade, I dont think it was a horrible move, but certainly not a great one on its face either

[yall hate]

I got Lincecum in round 8 two years ago.     And my team has dominated

well thats just silly.  can I get in on that league?  lol