CelticsStrong
Around the League => The Draft => Topic started by: smokeablount on May 17, 2018, 09:34:57 AM
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So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?
If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?
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So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?
If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?
Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.
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So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?
If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?
Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.
I agree that there needs to be more added, but adding Rozier, another young guy (presumably Yabu) and the MEM pick is a pretty big swing the other way
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So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?
If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?
Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.
I agree that there needs to be more added, but adding Rozier, another young guy (presumably Yabu) and the MEM pick is a pretty big swing the other way
Which is why I don't think a deal would happen. Orlando isn't going to give up the 6th pick for a couple of assets that could backfire spectacularly. Rozier and the Sacramento pick is probably reasonable enough in a vacuum, but in a year Orlando could be looking at either losing/overpaying Rozier and a Kings pick below 6 in a weaker draft. Adding just a player like Yabu or Semi isn't going to mitigate that enough, so I'd think the Memphis pick would be a requirement. My main point is that a deal is very unlikely.
I also think it'd be crazy for Orlando to trade out of number 6 when they have a chance to potentially pair Isaac with a guy like Bamba or Jackson.
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It’s the annoying Top 1 protection that devalues the pick the most.
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So I’d expect a pick this year to be more valuable than a pick next year, all things equal. But with the #6 pick maybe having 1 or 2 high potential guys there but largely missing out on the top guys, what do you think the value of the #6 this year is vs. our ‘19 Sacto pick?
If we were going to make a deal, Sacto for #6, what would need to be included by whom to make it fair?
Orlando's 6th pick is presently way more valuable. I'd think we would need to add Rozier, another young player and an additional pick like the Grizzlies to get into the conversation, but I don't think it would ultimately benefit either team enough with where they are to make such a trade.
I agree that there needs to be more added, but adding Rozier, another young guy (presumably Yabu) and the MEM pick is a pretty big swing the other way
Which is why I don't think a deal would happen. Orlando isn't going to give up the 6th pick for a couple of assets that could backfire spectacularly. Rozier and the Sacramento pick is probably reasonable enough in a vacuum, but in a year Orlando could be looking at either losing/overpaying Rozier and a Kings pick below 6 in a weaker draft. Adding just a player like Yabu or Semi isn't going to mitigate that enough, so I'd think the Memphis pick would be a requirement. My main point is that a deal is very unlikely.
I also think it'd be crazy for Orlando to trade out of number 6 when they have a chance to potentially pair Isaac with a guy like Bamba or Jackson.
Well sure, but they could also get a long term starting PG and the #2 pick. It all depends on how they rate each of these pieces.
Confounding things is that the pick odds are much flatter next year. Assuming SAC will be a bottom-6 team, there's something like:
10-14% chance of #1 (oops)
80%+ chance it's #2-#6.
So for projection purposes, I think it's fair to value it around #5. I really don't see how a guy like Bamba is clearly better than a future #5 pick, let alone with Rozier thrown in.
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The #6 pick might get you a Marcus Smart if you're lucky. I would NOT go all in and give up a lot of assets for that pick.
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Seems like we got addicted to so many high draft picks these last couple of years. Lol.
Don’t see the need to try to trade into the lottery. Could see consolidating to trade up and grab someone if he is undervalued. But Danny should otherwise take a chill pill.
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The #6 pick might get you a Marcus Smart if you're lucky. I would NOT go all in and give up a lot of assets for that pick.
There have been plenty of stars drafted later than the #6 pick (Dirk #9 / Pierce #10). Even in just this most recent draft Markkanen (#7) and Mitchell (#13) both standout as obvious future stars.
This doesn't mean that someone from this draft absolutely will be that good, but you can't say it's impossible either.
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It's an interesting situation. The sac pick is more valuable to us because of cap implications, but the magic pick is more valuable to the magic because there's more talent this year and they need people asap. This means its unlikely that a deal can be reached.
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The #6 pick might get you a Marcus Smart if you're lucky. I would NOT go all in and give up a lot of assets for that pick.
There have been plenty of stars drafted later than the #6 pick (Dirk #9 / Pierce #10). Even in just this most recent draft Markkanen (#7) and Mitchell (#13) both standout as obvious future stars.
This doesn't mean that someone from this draft absolutely will be that good, but you can't say it's impossible either.
Not to mention, Larry Legend was drafted at #6. 8)
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Rozier, #27 (our 2018 1st), Sac 2019 1st, and a future 2nd/Yabusele if needed for Orlando #6.
I think it's a overpay in isolation, but a good time to strike, given the Rozier RFA next year and playing time concerns. I will miss Terry, but I think this draft is a unique opportunity to consolidate, and add another blue-chip on a rookie contract. (Porter Jr, Bamba) We cannot roster all of the 2019 picks.
In any event, I'm tremendously enjoying this year's run.
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The 6th pick this year about guarantees Orlando will end up with a kid that could have superstar potential. The Sacramento pick has a real possibility of ending up #1 which would then mean Orlando gets Philly's pick somewhere in the 20's. Also, next year's talent at the top isn't nearly as good or as deep as this year's. Why would a bad team trade an almost sure thing for a pick that is most likely going to be worse and could end up in the 20s?
Also, Orlando needs talent to rebuild now. Putting off getting the chance at elite talent now to get it later only punts the development cycle down a year.
Just see zero potential of this ever happening unless the Orlando GM just doesn't like being employed.
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This only happens if Rozier is involved I think, but then that would likely be too much to give up for the 6th pick in a 3 player draft (Doncic, Ayton, Bagley)
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I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.
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This only happens if Rozier is involved I think, but then that would likely be too much to give up for the 6th pick in a 3 player draft (Doncic, Ayton, Bagley)
I don't know, I think if Bamba is on the board for the 6th pick, you pull that trigger. He's not Stevens ideal big, but he's long, rebounds, gets garbage points, blocks shots(which we really need) and can step out and hit 18 footers.
Great thing about him, is he's a prospect big. He can come off the bench for a couple years behind Horford, learning under him.
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I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.
Say we dealt Rozier, Sac 19 and #27 for #6.
Isn’t the #27 18-19 salary + Roziers 18-19 salary about the same as the salary of #6?
That’s a question not an argument, but if it’s the same $ doesn’t that mitigate our issues with 2018?
The key behind this being that Porter or Carter are better talents than next year’s crop and at positions of need. If we assume they’re special players and great fits here.
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I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.
Say we dealt Rozier, Sac 19 and #27 for #6.
Isn’t the #27 18-19 salary + Roziers 18-19 salary about the same as the salary of #6?
That’s a question not an argument, but if it’s the same $ doesn’t that mitigate our issues with 2018?
The key behind this being that Porter or Carter are better talents than next year’s crop and at positions of need. If we assume they’re special players and great fits here.
It's a bit tricky because draft picks have no trade value until they sign a contract. So the trade can be agreed on principle prior to signing contracts for the 2018 draft picks and then completed after signing. The SAC 19 draft pick will have 0 value, of course, because the trade will happen 1 year before the pick gets signed.
So if I did the math right:
Rozier ($3,050,389)
#27 pick ($1,367,000)
Sac19 ($0)
Total: ($4,417,389)
2018 #6 ($4,019,600)
So, the trade works out, money wise, assuming they wait until after the picks have signed contracts.
The problem? The Celtics are giving up Rozier, a first rounder, and a pick that should be around #6 next year for the 6th pick this year. Rozier's production alone in a season in which we're expected to be favorites in the East is enough to say forget it. Also, Ainge has gone on record stating that he will never trade our own first rounders. I think that he plans to use his late first round draft picks as cheap bench players to keep costs down once we hit the luxury tax bill in 2019.
I don't see any way we trade into the 2018 NBA lottery that makes sense. It's either sacrificing too much up front with no great long term return (your scenario), or it prices us out of resigning Marcus Smart (like if we just trade a couple picks + SAC19 pick for 2018 #6).
Best chance to get into the 2018 NBA lottery is trade Kyrie Irving for the pick + expiring contract. Ainge would be a fool to give up a bird in the hand in a potential championship season.
I know that it's fun to theory craft, but this is really dead on arrival.
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Forgot to answer your last part about 2019:
The 2019 players will be hyped soon, don't worry. Every year the current draft class gets hyped and it's always "the best class since 2003." It's just natural human response: hope. Everyone wants to hope that they're going to get the ping pong balls and Ayton is the next Shaq and Ben Simmons is the next Magic Johnson, and Markelle Fultz is the next James Harden. Sometimes they're good, sometimes they're bad.
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I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.
Yep I'm with you man TP.
We are adding Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving and another First rounder. We could move up more modestly to the late teens.
.I would rather win the title next year and then come back with a top 5 pick that's just me I'm slow rolling this.
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This is ridiculous talk to think Ainge is going to overpay for the sixth pick. With a possible top 3 pick at stake next year.
The move is Rozier for a sliding player that Ainge loves. Even if it was pick #12. Who knows who could slide that far. Porter, Bamba, Carter someone will slide.
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The kings are a lottery team next year... and we have 1 to 3 more first rounders next year.. so more power to move up... do not trade the sac pick
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The kings are a lottery team next year... and we have 1 to 3 more first rounders next year.. so more power to move up... do not trade the sac pick
Problem is next year is full of SG/SF/PF's in the top part of the draft. There are only three centers right now projected to go in the lotto and two of them are out side the top ten. With Brown and Tatum we don't really need an other wing.
If JJJ, Carter or Bamba is available for a combo of Rozier and the Sac pick I think you pull the trigger. I get taking best player available when you have the pick, but when you move up, you're looking for fit. Guy like Bamba who is long, and can stretch the floor a bit would be better than getting Zion who gets us log jamed in the wings with Brown,Tatum and Hayward. And a guy like Bamba would need some time to develop and can come off the bench for Horford the next couple years.
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I'd much rather have the 6th pick in this draft than the Kings/Sixers pick next draft.
1) The Kings finished 7th worst this season with an incentive to tank and next season they'll have no incentive to tank.
2) The 2018 draft looks good whereas the 2019 draft looks weak.
3) The #1 protection and the Sixers strong performance this season makes the King pick much less valuable. If the Kings do end up as a bottom 3 team, there's a 14% chance of the #1 pick so you'd end up with the Sixers pick in the 20s instead.
4) The change in percentages and choosing the top 4 instead of top 3 next draft adds significant variability which hurts the Kings pick value.
If the Kings were to finish 3rd worst next season, the lottery odds would be:
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
.140 .134 .127 .120 .148 .260 .070
So there would be a 14% chance of ending up with a pick in the 20s and a 33% chance of ending up with the 6th or 7th pick.
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I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.
Say we dealt Rozier, Sac 19 and #27 for #6.
Isn’t the #27 18-19 salary + Roziers 18-19 salary about the same as the salary of #6?
That’s a question not an argument, but if it’s the same $ doesn’t that mitigate our issues with 2018?
The key behind this being that Porter or Carter are better talents than next year’s crop and at positions of need. If we assume they’re special players and great fits here.
It's a bit tricky because draft picks have no trade value until they sign a contract. So the trade can be agreed on principle prior to signing contracts for the 2018 draft picks and then completed after signing. The SAC 19 draft pick will have 0 value, of course, because the trade will happen 1 year before the pick gets signed.
So if I did the math right:
Rozier ($3,050,389)
#27 pick ($1,367,000)
Sac19 ($0)
Total: ($4,417,389)
2018 #6 ($4,019,600)
So, the trade works out, money wise, assuming they wait until after the picks have signed contracts.
The problem? The Celtics are giving up Rozier, a first rounder, and a pick that should be around #6 next year for the 6th pick this year. Rozier's production alone in a season in which we're expected to be favorites in the East is enough to say forget it. Also, Ainge has gone on record stating that he will never trade our own first rounders. I think that he plans to use his late first round draft picks as cheap bench players to keep costs down once we hit the luxury tax bill in 2019.
I don't see any way we trade into the 2018 NBA lottery that makes sense. It's either sacrificing too much up front with no great long term return (your scenario), or it prices us out of resigning Marcus Smart (like if we just trade a couple picks + SAC19 pick for 2018 #6).
Best chance to get into the 2018 NBA lottery is trade Kyrie Irving for the pick + expiring contract. Ainge would be a fool to give up a bird in the hand in a potential championship season.
I know that it's fun to theory craft, but this is really dead on arrival.
I don’t think you’re wrong, I just think it’s possible if Danny decides he has to deal Terry. Kyrie, Hayward and and Smart if healthy can play 90 of the 96 guard minutes, so Terry might have to go. If he does, and you package him with #27 and Sac 19, you’re really dealing sac 19 for #6 since #27 is very low value in comparison to the other assets, and Rozier was gonna be dealt anyway.
But the move is only made if you think Wendell Carter is Al 2.0 or Porter is Tatum 2.0.
But I agree, unlikely to happen. It just doesn’t seem like we have roster space for all the picks either.
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Not sure. Ainge could probably have demanded that the Lakers pick only convey if 2-6 instead of 2-5
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There is no way Ainge is trading the Sacramento pick. There is way too much risk for the opposing GM to take on and as a result won't give reasonably equivalent value. The risk for the Cs to hold on is low. It's going to take other assets to move up in the draft.
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Not sure. Ainge could probably have demanded that the Lakers pick only convey if 2-6 instead of 2-5
why? It was ended up being 10th
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There is no way Ainge is trading the Sacramento pick. There is way too much risk for the opposing GM to take on and as a result won't give reasonably equivalent value. The risk for the Cs to hold on is low. It's going to take other assets to move up in the draft.
agree
That pick is once again looking to be a very nice player next year
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Not sure. Ainge could probably have demanded that the Lakers pick only convey if 2-6 instead of 2-5
why? It was ended up being 10th
I meant Ainge didn’t value a potential #6 as much as a backup plan which was the Sac pick