Kemba trade idea via B/R

[gouki88]

Not sure why we’d do Kemba for McCollum. Lateral move at absolute best talent wise. Given what we saw with Kemba being attacked on the defensive end I’d hate to see us with McCollum.

Would rather just go for Middleton and go super tall. Hayward runs the point on offence with Tatum and Middleton as secondary playmakers

I don't think we can get Middleton unless we trade the farm for him, the lad was fantastic last season.

https://twitter.com/elgee35/status/1230660347205259265
Player A in the link is Khris Middleton without Giannis and player B is Khris Middleton without Giannis (the points and shots created numbers look even more impressive when you consider that they're adjusted for pace). Throw in really good wing defence with that offensive package and you're getting a borderline top 10 player in a historically stacked league.

Oh me neither, Middleton is a legit stud. For all intents and purposes a 20/5/5 guy who shoots 50/40/90 and plays pretty useful D. His advanced numbers this year highlight his value a lot more than his regular box score does.

Just in the trade Jvalin proposed, we're giving up Kemba to Milwaukee and they're sending off Middleton, except it's not to us. Why not cut out the middle man? Especially as we're giving the 2nd best guy in the deal and getting the worst in return

[LilRip]

Unpopular opinion in this thread: KEEP KEMBA!

The guy is chemistry personified and has no problem taking a backseat to Tatum and Brown if needed. Plus, he’s an elite shot creator.

Spo’s zones stymied the C’s offense when it mattered most and I blame CBS as much as (if not more so) than the players. But I’d keep Kemba and bench Smart in favor of a knockdown shooter (who I hope DA can acquire this offseason as we seem to have none of those).

[mr. dee]

Nah. Keep him. Brad should delegate him as our primary bench scorer. His size deficiency can be covered while playing with second unit. Let Smart run the PG starting position.

[Somebody]

Not sure why we’d do Kemba for McCollum. Lateral move at absolute best talent wise. Given what we saw with Kemba being attacked on the defensive end I’d hate to see us with McCollum.

Would rather just go for Middleton and go super tall. Hayward runs the point on offence with Tatum and Middleton as secondary playmakers

I don't think we can get Middleton unless we trade the farm for him, the lad was fantastic last season.

https://twitter.com/elgee35/status/1230660347205259265
Player A in the link is Khris Middleton without Giannis and player B is Khris Middleton without Giannis (the points and shots created numbers look even more impressive when you consider that they're adjusted for pace). Throw in really good wing defence with that offensive package and you're getting a borderline top 10 player in a historically stacked league.

Oh me neither, Middleton is a legit stud. For all intents and purposes a 20/5/5 guy who shoots 50/40/90 and plays pretty useful D. His advanced numbers this year highlight his value a lot more than his regular box score does.

Just in the trade Jvalin proposed, we're giving up Kemba to Milwaukee and they're sending off Middleton, except it's not to us. Why not cut out the middle man? Especially as we're giving the 2nd best guy in the deal and getting the worst in return

30/6/7 guy from the numbers above (obviously they're against bench units quite a bit, but the pace adjustment should be a good enough approximation of what he'd average in a lone star role) that isn't light on impact with his strong +/- numbers

And yeah I would trade Kemba and picks for Middleton in a heartbeat if that was possible. Massive upgrade for us that will probably give us that much needed boost to survive in crunch time even if we don't incorporate more off-ball movement (defensive upgrade while not losing much offensively is huge).

[Jvalin]

So you're suggesting that we downgrade from a top 20-30 point guard into a top 40-50 guard who has a weird skillset (he actually doesn't do that well when he's the primary ball handler despite his raw slash line, a look at tracking data, composite box and scaled +/- metrics would suggest that he's best in his current role in Portland as an on/off-ball hybrid guard) because of "possible chronic injury issues" and Milwaukee to give up a potential top 10 player who's actually a really good shot creator contrary to what you'd like to believe for an All-Star guard?

Obviously, I don't agree that CJ would be a downgrade from Kemba, otherwise I wouldn't have proposed the trade.

No matter the way you look at it, CJ is the better off-ball player. This would make him a great fit for the C's, cause we already got 3 legit scoring options in Tatum, Brown and Hayward.

Off-ball shooting

Spot up
Hayward 1.20 PPP
McCollum 1.16 PPP
Brown 1.10 PPP
Tatum 1.07 PPP
Kemba 0.90 PPP
Smart 0.88 PPP

Off screen
McCollum 1.08 PPP
Brown 1.08 PPP
Kemba 1.05 PPP
Hayward 0.91 PPP
Tatum 0.81 PPP

Handoff
Hayward 1.00 PPP
McCollum 0.99 PPP
Brown 0.97 PPP
Kemba 0.96 PPP
Tatum 0.82 PPP

Shooting in general
McCollum
left corner three 57.5%
right corner three 52.5%
above the break three 34.7%
mid-range 48.9%

Kemba
left corner three 38.9%
right corner three 33.3%
above the break three 38.5%
mid-range 50.4%

In the clutch
McCollum
FG% 52.3 (0.7-1.3)
3P% 72.7 (0.2-0.3)
FT% 71.4 (0.3-0.4)
AST/TO = 6

Kemba
FG% 34.8 (0.6-1.7)
3P% 41.4 (0.4-1.1)
FT% 71.4 (0.6-0.8 )
AST/TO = 2

I would argue that McCollum is one of the most clutch players in the NBA.

Kemba is a better shooter off the dribble. He's also better at running the pick n roll. Mind you, the above numbers are from the regular season. Kemba's respective numbers from the playoffs are way lower than these. He was a shell of himself in the playoffs.

A few more random stuff on CJ:
- he's 3 inches taller than Kemba (a bit more switchable on D + it makes it easier for him to create his own shot in the clutch)
- better contract than Kemba (posted the exact numbers in my previews post)
- no long-term injury concerns
- he's even 1 year younger

-------------------------------------------

Interesting tweet regarding Middleton. In the meantime, he's still not a closer.

In the clutch
Middleton
30.6 FG% (0.7-2.3)
36.8 3P% (0.4-1.2)
92.9 FT% (0.8-0.9)
AST/TO = 2.33

[CFAN38]

Boston Celtics Receive: PG Dejounte Murray, C LaMarcus Aldridge, 2020 No. 11 overall pick

San Antonio Spurs Receive: PG Kemba Walker, C Enes Kanter

While Walker was signed to be the Celtics' go-to scorer, Jayson Tatum has proved capable of assuming the role, and Jaylen Brown outscored Walker in the playoffs (21.8 to 19.6 points per game), as well.

With Walker as the third option moving forward, the Celtics could flip him now while his value is still high and get some much-needed frontcourt help.

Aldridge is still playing at a high level (18.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 blocks) and has developed a nice outside shot (38.9 percent from three). He would be a huge upgrade over Daniel Theis at center and bring nine years of playoff experience.

Murray, 24, would better align with the Celtics' young wings than Walker, giving them an elite defensive backcourt with either Brown or Marcus Smart.

The Spurs need an injection of talent if they want to make the playoffs next season, and Walker would help create a one-two scoring punch with DeMar DeRozan. Getting Kanter would give them some size and rebounding to make up for the loss of Aldridge, and San Antonio looked good in the bubble even while the 35-year-old center was out following shoulder surgery.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2911665-trades-that-would-shock-every-nba-fanbase


https://tradenba.com/trades/gOqwWH2kh

Imo, Kemba is a luxury, not a necessity. I'm ready to move on from him for the right price. That being said, I don't like this trade.

- LMA ain't getting any younger. He isn't mobile enough to switch ball screens on the perimeter, hence he'd be a bad fit in our defensive system.
- Murray's injury history makes me uneasy.

I agree with other posters that Kemba is not getting traded. That being said a spurs trade would be interesting but I would rather see the Cs include a pick (14 or 26+30) and get White instead of Murray.

Starting Smart and Aldridge with a healthy Hayward, Tatum, and brown with White and Theis off the bench would be an interesting fit. Smart and Whites size would also alow the Cs to draft a smaller guard (Anthony, Lewis, Terry) or sign one as a FA (IT, Teague,Ferrel) and easily integrate them into the rotation.

[Jvalin]

Just in the trade Jvalin proposed, we're giving up Kemba to Milwaukee and they're sending off Middleton, except it's not to us. Why not cut out the middle man? Especially as we're giving the 2nd best guy in the deal and getting the worst in return

I'd be all for swapping Kemba for Middleton.

Imo, Middleton > CJ > Kemba

Again, Kemba was a shell of himself in the playoffs. I'm not even sure he was our best Point Guard. If you ask me, Smart outplayed him. Danny is on record as saying that Kemba ''was definitely not himself'' at any point inside the bubble.

I wasn't there - I was watching from here (Boston) - but I can see even when he was here before the bubble started (...) he was definitely not himself. (...) I can tell he wasn't the same physically as he was in October, November, December. (...) still a really good player, but I think he is not what he was. There is nothing more frustrating for an athlete to be in the biggest stage in the world in your sport and not be able to be yourself.

He had about 5 months of rest, yet he wasn't ready. Don't know about you guys, but this sounds like a legit issue to me. Kemba was a super explosive undersized guard. If he ain't super explosive anymore, then he ain't the player he used to be. 

[GreenlyGreeny]

We’re not trading Kemba. That would be saying, “we don’t ever want another free agent to sign in Boston again.” This is the real world, not NBA 2K.

[Jvalin]

We’re not trading Kemba. That would be saying, “we don’t ever want another free agent to sign in Boston again.” This is the real world, not NBA 2K.

Two points on this:

1. With a core of Tatum + Brown + McCollum/Middleton/Simmons/you name it, the Celtics won't have cap space for years to come. Couldn't care less what free agents think of us if we cannot afford them anyway.
2. The Bucks are a legit contending team. Judging by their collective decision to boycott game 5 against the Magic, it seems they have great locker room chemistry as well. It's not like we would be dumping Kemba in a dead-end situation, like he were in Charlotte.

[tazzmaniac]

We’re not trading Kemba. That would be saying, “we don’t ever want another free agent to sign in Boston again.” This is the real world, not NBA 2K.

I don't think we'd trade  him in a lateral move like McCollum or Middleton.  However if it were necessary to trade him to acquire a clearly better star (Giannis, Embiid, KAT, ...), I don't think there would be a problem doing so. 

[RodyTur10]

Honestly I don't really see a trade out there with Walker involved that would make the Celtics better (short term or long term).

What stars are even available? Paul (too much salary), Beal, George, Siakam, Simmons, Gobert, Vucevic or maybe Embiid? I'd love to get that 3rd young star, but Morant, Mitchell or Booker for example is not going to happen.

Middleton or McCollum are lateral moves. McCollum is just as much of a defensive liability as Walker is.
And I'm thinking that our offense would become even more stagnant with Middleton.
Playing without a true PG works for Dallas and LA because they have elite big playmakers in LeBron and Doncic.
Just watch how bad that offense looked by the Clippers and they had elite shotmakers, but not playmakers.

Which guard can we realistically obtain for Walker (+assets)?

Brogdon (injury concerns, good fit), Rose (only one year contract, older), VanVleet (do the Raptors want to trade to a rival?), D.White (huge gamble on our part), Fultz (another big gamble, funny one though), Holiday (I'd do that), Oladipo (love his defense, can he get back to his old self?) or LaVine (not a great playmaker, cheap perhaps).

But I do find that Walker is a bit of a problem. He's barely a top 10 point guard (it was kind of shocking to see how he got outplayed by Lowry and Dragic). Walker has injury concerns and when you take the contract in consideration he's below average in value per dollar return.

I'd take Curry, Lillard, Paul, Morant, Young, Lowry, Brogdon and Murray over Walker and I think Fox, Russell and Rose are on par him with (Irving and Westbrook are special cases).

[Somebody]

So you're suggesting that we downgrade from a top 20-30 point guard into a top 40-50 guard who has a weird skillset (he actually doesn't do that well when he's the primary ball handler despite his raw slash line, a look at tracking data, composite box and scaled +/- metrics would suggest that he's best in his current role in Portland as an on/off-ball hybrid guard) because of "possible chronic injury issues" and Milwaukee to give up a potential top 10 player who's actually a really good shot creator contrary to what you'd like to believe for an All-Star guard? ::)

Obviously, I don't agree that CJ would be a downgrade from Kemba, otherwise I wouldn't have proposed the trade.

No matter the way you look at it, CJ is the better off-ball player. This would make him a great fit for the C's, cause we already got 3 legit scoring options in Tatum, Brown and Hayward.

Off-ball shooting

Spot up
Hayward 1.20 PPP
McCollum 1.16 PPP
Brown 1.10 PPP
Tatum 1.07 PPP
Kemba 0.90 PPP
Smart 0.88 PPP

Off screen
McCollum 1.08 PPP
Brown 1.08 PPP
Kemba 1.05 PPP
Hayward 0.91 PPP
Tatum 0.81 PPP

Handoff
Hayward 1.00 PPP
McCollum 0.99 PPP
Brown 0.97 PPP
Kemba 0.96 PPP
Tatum 0.82 PPP

Shooting in general
McCollum
left corner three 57.5%
right corner three 52.5%
above the break three 34.7%
mid-range 48.9%

Kemba
left corner three 38.9%
right corner three 33.3%
above the break three 38.5%
mid-range 50.4%

In the clutch
McCollum
FG% 52.3 (0.7-1.3)
3P% 72.7 (0.2-0.3)
FT% 71.4 (0.3-0.4)
AST/TO = 6

Kemba
FG% 34.8 (0.6-1.7)
3P% 41.4 (0.4-1.1)
FT% 71.4 (0.6-0.8 )
AST/TO = 2

I would argue that McCollum is one of the most clutch players in the NBA.

Kemba is a better shooter off the dribble. He's also better at running the pick n roll. Mind you, the above numbers are from the regular season. Kemba's respective numbers from the playoffs are way lower than these. He was a shell of himself in the playoffs.

A few more random stuff on CJ:
- he's 3 inches taller than Kemba (a bit more switchable on D + it makes it easier for him to create his own shot in the clutch)
- better contract than Kemba (posted the exact numbers in my previews post)
- no long-term injury concerns
- he's even 1 year younger

-------------------------------------------

Interesting tweet regarding Middleton. In the meantime, he's still not a closer.

In the clutch
Middleton
30.6 FG% (0.7-2.3)
36.8 3P% (0.4-1.2)
92.9 FT% (0.8-0.9)
AST/TO = 2.33

Aaaaaand this is one year out of 5 years of Kemba data available in the nba site (I assume you're digging them out from there) where he posted marks of 1.14, 1.30 and 1.17 from 2016-2018. Obviously CJ has done really well in all 5 years, but it's more likely that Kemba's poor shooting in the past two years is an anomaly when you consider the frequency of those shots being low (he hovers around 9-11% with the exception of 2016 while CJ is 13-15%). A 0.03 difference in PPP is really negligible tbh, putting aside the fact that we actually need a guard who can play well on-ball to run the offence. As much as the "20 PPG" scorer label would suggest that Brown, Tatum and Hayward are a trio that can do plenty of playmaking to the casual fan, only Hayward is a really good passer and he doesn't have huge gravity from his scoring to really utilise that skill as an on-ball engine, Tatum is a good offensive centrepiece but he lacks the high-end passing ability to make the necessary reads to consistently punish elite defences and Brown definitely isn't anywhere near to spearheading a strong offence. We needed Walker last season to be that second offensive engine that the offence can run through to open up defences, and while it didn't work in the playoffs it was mainly due to injury slowing him down rather than him being not good enough.

I do think that McCollum is a "better" clutch player than Kemba, but those numbers you posted are massively skewed in favour of CJ as he was able to play second fiddle next to Lillard where defences didn't really focus on him while Kemba was the focal point in Charlotte and things got really weird after his knee injury in his first season in Boston. Also clutch play doesn't really matter when two players are significantly far apart in general quality, here are some composite box stats and scaled +/- metrics that have been rating Kemba quite significantly (the difference is like a top 20-30 quarterback versus a top 40-50 combo guard considering their defence isn't that far apart, both have been pretty meh) ahead of McCollum for the past few seasons:

Offensive ESPN RPM:
Kemba Walker from 2018-2020: 3.01, 2.43, 2.46
CJ McCollum from 2018-2020: 0.88, 1.20, 1.18

Offensive 3-year scaled RAPM:
Kemba Walker: 4.19
CJ McCollum: 1.86

Offensive PIPM:
Kemba Walker from 2018-2020: 3.72, 3.33, 3.60
CJ McCollum from 2018-2020: 0.61, 2.23, 1.50

Offensive RAPTOR (can only find 2020 data):
Kemba Walker: 4.8
CJ McCollum: 2.5

The other stuff you posted make it a bit more interesting (I'm certainly not blind to CJ's advantages in terms of age, health and contract even though I think CJ doesn't use his size well enough to have a significant edge over Kemba defensively), but I think we should be betting on Walker returning to his All-Star form instead of downgrading for a safer but worse option when we really need that high-end offensive talent to make up for our lack of MVP-calibre talent.
-------------------------------------------
Interesting post about Middleton not being a closer when we only have one year of All-NBA Khris that's worth 16 "games" (it's really only the final minutes of a game) to go off on :laugh:, I'll take his entire body of work this year over that minuscule sample size.

[ederson]

Middleton or McCollum are lateral moves. McCollum is just as much of a defensive liability as Walker is.
And I'm thinking that our offense would become even more stagnant with Middleton.
Playing without a true PG works for Dallas and LA because they have elite big playmakers in LeBron and Doncic.
Just watch how bad that offense looked by the Clippers and they had elite shotmakers, but not playmakers.

Middleton is not a lateral move. The upgrade on defense is huge without losing anything on the other side

But i agree on the second part.... where is the pg Turn GH into one ? I don"t feel comfortable to be honest

[Somebody]

Honestly I don't really see a trade out there with Walker involved that would make the Celtics better (short term or long term).

What stars are even available? Paul (too much salary), Beal, George, Siakam, Simmons, Gobert, Vucevic or maybe Embiid? I'd love to get that 3rd young star, but Morant, Mitchell or Booker for example is not going to happen.

Middleton or McCollum are lateral moves. McCollum is just as much of a defensive liability as Walker is.
And I'm thinking that our offense would become even more stagnant with Middleton.
Playing without a true PG works for Dallas and LA because they have elite big playmakers in LeBron and Doncic.
Just watch how bad that offense looked by the Clippers and they had elite shotmakers, but not playmakers.

Which guard can we realistically obtain for Walker (+assets)?

Brogdon (injury concerns, good fit), Rose (only one year contract, older), VanVleet (do the Raptors want to trade to a rival?), D.White (huge gamble on our part), Fultz (another big gamble, funny one though), Holiday (I'd do that), Oladipo (love his defense, can he get back to his old self?) or LaVine (not a great playmaker, cheap perhaps).

But I do find that Walker is a bit of a problem. He's barely a top 10 point guard (it was kind of shocking to see how he got outplayed by Lowry and Dragic). Walker has injury concerns and when you take the contract in consideration he's below average in value per dollar return.

I'd take Curry, Lillard, Paul, Morant, Young, Lowry, Brogdon and Murray over Walker and I think Fox, Russell and Rose are on par him with (Irving and Westbrook are special cases).

Massive defensive upgrade though, and it's not like we'll suddenly die offensively imo - Middleton can't attack the teeth of the defence like Walker does, but he can ramp up and lead strong offences if need be with his versatile scoring and strong wing passing, I don't think there's much of a difference between the two if at all offensively. We'd need some tweaks to our offence (eg. off-ball movement, smaller lineups since we have extra size at the wing, etc) to make it as good as it was with a healthy Kemba because Kemba's ability to drive is perfect for our swing offence and Middleton can't replicate that but they aren't impossible to do. Would definitely trade for Middleton if Milwaukee was willing to deal him to us for Walker straight up if FA credibility didn't exist

[Vermont Green]

This thread started with the idea of trading Kemba Walker and Kanter for Aldridge and Murray.  To me, that is worth entertaining as it brings back something we need, a better big.  I am not sure I would go for this trade exactly but the premise makes sense.

I see no point in trading Kemba for CJ McCollum even if you think one guy is a little better or not than the other.  It is just another smallish combo guard.  Kind of the same for Middleton.  We have Brown, Tatum, and Hayward who all do more or less what Middleton does.  Again, maybe a little better or not.  Kemba gives us something different than our main wings, we don't want to trade that away for more wing power.

I am not opposed to trading Kemba Walker but if I do trade him, I want a skilled big in return so that our roster is more balanced.  Not another quasi-point guard or another wing.