Author Topic: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....  (Read 2875 times)

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Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #30 on: January 15, 2019, 08:38:27 PM »

Offline TheReaLPuba

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It's really not an interesting argument.


The team without Kyrie or Hayward would be worse.

There's no way the offense would be better than bottom third of the league.  The defense might be similar.

My guess is they'd be hanging right around .500 in that case. 

You'd still have issues with Tatum and Brown struggling to make the leap while Rozier and Morris gun for their next contracts.

Horford would still be a season older.


I don't think it would be pretty.  But hey, the expectations would be lower, so I guess we'd all be happy, right?

The team plays better when one or multiple players are out.

I think there's too much talent on this team that everyone feels less responsible for their play.

Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2019, 09:36:08 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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It's really not an interesting argument.


The team without Kyrie or Hayward would be worse.

There's no way the offense would be better than bottom third of the league.  The defense might be similar.

My guess is they'd be hanging right around .500 in that case. 

You'd still have issues with Tatum and Brown struggling to make the leap while Rozier and Morris gun for their next contracts.

Horford would still be a season older.


I don't think it would be pretty.  But hey, the expectations would be lower, so I guess we'd all be happy, right?

The team plays better when one or multiple players are out.

I think there's too much talent on this team that everyone feels less responsible for their play.

Do they?

They played well in the playoffs missing Kyrie and Hayward.

Do we have statistical support for the notion they play better generally in the regular season when missing players than when everybody is active?

I think you could easily argue vis a vis the playoff run last summer that they could have gotten past Cleveland if Kyrie had been playing.
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Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2019, 10:41:32 AM »

Offline Who

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So no Kyrie and no Hayward

PG: Rozier, Smart
SG: Jaylen,
SF: Tatum
PF: Horford, Morris
 C: Baynes, Theis

I am assuming a quality backup SG/SF is brought in to even out the rotation with Hayward no longer in the role. That looks a good balanced team to me. Yabu, Robert Williams, Wannamaker as third stringers.

I think that team would be playing at around a 48-52 win clip over the course of a season.

It would be a bit ugly to watch at times because of the lack of playmaking on the perimeter but a scrappy bunch that is difficult to play against.

Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2019, 11:16:14 AM »

Offline Jvalin

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So no Kyrie and no Hayward

PG: Rozier, Smart
SG: Jaylen,
SF: Tatum
PF: Horford, Morris
 C: Baynes, Theis

I am assuming a quality backup SG/SF is brought in to even out the rotation with Hayward no longer in the role. That looks a good balanced team to me. Yabu, Robert Williams, Wannamaker as third stringers.

I think that team would be playing at around a 48-52 win clip over the course of a season.

It would be a bit ugly to watch at times because of the lack of playmaking on the perimeter but a scrappy bunch that is difficult to play against.
No Theis either. He missed the entire post-season due to his injury.

(our playoff rotation, not just in the ECF)

Rozier - Larkin
Brown - Smart
Tatum - Semi - Nader
Horford - Morris - Yabu
Baynes - Monroe

Morris started 4 games over Baynes (in the series vs the Cavs).
Semi started 3 games over Baynes (vs. the Bucks).
Smart started 4 games over Brown (vs. the Sixers).

Larkin wasn't available in the ECF as well, but at least he played 11 games in the playoffs (7 vs. the Bucks, 4 vs. the Sixers).
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 11:36:49 AM by Jvalin »

Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #34 on: January 16, 2019, 12:14:00 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Last season’s ECF unit almost lost in the first round of the playoffs.  They snuck by a poorly coached bucks team in 7 games.  If they lose in game 7 and don’t get the opportunity to cruise by an unprepared sixer team, nobody would think we are some juggernaut that can just flip a switch. 

This team isn’t as good as people think.  It’s a one star team.  Right now we only go as far as kyrie takes us.  Until we either see Hayward get 100%, Tatum make a leap, or a trade for a second star, we might continue to be mediocre all year.

Exactly. I think some are a little delusional about how "good" last year's playoff team was.

delusional how

they still made it to the ECF

and it did take full home court adv

which the team earned in the regular season

soo all of that work was delusional?
The team that had Kyrie Irving did that :P

he contributed but the hayward/irvingless unit did the majority of heavy lifting

After Kyrie went down, the team finished 9-6 (.600) over the final 15 games of the regular season. Over the first 67 games, they went 46-21 (.680).
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Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #35 on: January 16, 2019, 12:25:34 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Last season’s ECF unit almost lost in the first round of the playoffs.  They snuck by a poorly coached bucks team in 7 games.  If they lose in game 7 and don’t get the opportunity to cruise by an unprepared sixer team, nobody would think we are some juggernaut that can just flip a switch. 

This team isn’t as good as people think.  It’s a one star team.  Right now we only go as far as kyrie takes us.  Until we either see Hayward get 100%, Tatum make a leap, or a trade for a second star, we might continue to be mediocre all year.

Exactly. I think some are a little delusional about how "good" last year's playoff team was.

delusional how

they still made it to the ECF

and it did take full home court adv

which the team earned in the regular season

soo all of that work was delusional?
The team that had Kyrie Irving did that :P

he contributed but the hayward/irvingless unit did the majority of heavy lifting

After Kyrie went down, the team finished 9-6 (.600) over the final 15 games of the regular season. Over the first 67 games, they went 46-21 (.680).
They were 5-2 without Irving in the first 67 games though as well, which raises that win percentage to 63.6% (with him stays at 68%).  That doesn't include the Charlotte game in which he played under 2 minutes (and the team was -6) which Boston won (that one was during the streak and Irving missed the next game also a win).  If you count that one as a win without him, that goes to 15-8 which is 65%. 
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Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2019, 01:54:53 PM »

Offline Silky

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If last seasons starters, plus Kyrie, and Baynes not injured, team would be #1 in the league. Hands down.

Irving
brown
Tatum
Horford
Baynes

That lineup went on a 16 game win streak last season. Held the best defense in the league, the best record in the league.

Incorporating a breaking down horford now back banging with bigbodies, jerking Brown and Tatums rolls around, letting Rozier and Morris play for contracts and coddling Hayward into a pathetic excuse for a max player this team looks like a hot mess.


Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2019, 02:36:09 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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If last seasons starters, plus Kyrie, and Baynes not injured, team would be #1 in the league. Hands down.

Irving
brown
Tatum
Horford
Baynes

That lineup went on a 16 game win streak last season. Held the best defense in the league, the best record in the league.

Incorporating a breaking down horford now back banging with bigbodies, jerking Brown and Tatums rolls around, letting Rozier and Morris play for contracts and coddling Hayward into a pathetic excuse for a max player this team looks like a hot mess.
It is an interesting thought process to wonder, now that we know exactly how limited and not ready Hayward was to start the season, if that above starting lineup started the season and were given minutes like last year's, if Brown and Tatum would be farther along in their development and have played great from the start.

Of course, part of Tatum's problem isn't touches but play he seemingly picked up from Kobe. So maybe he starts off the same. And Brown would still be used as a third option, not like the 4th and 5th option he started this year, but still a 3rd and not a 2nd or 1st option, which is where he thrived last year, so maybe he still struggles too.

Well, interesting to think about anyway.

Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2019, 02:37:00 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I feel like it's important for people to keep in mind the following:

2018-2019

Kyrie ON (1218 min) ... +9.7
ORTG - 116.3
DRTG - 106.6

Kyrie OFF (865 min) ... +0.9
ORTG - 106.5
DRTG - 105.6

Net = +8.6


2017-2018

Kyrie ON (1928 min) ... +6.4
ORTG - 114.4
DRTG - 108.0

Kyrie OFF (2029 min) ... +1.3
ORTG - 105.2
DRTG - 103.9

Net = +5.3



Cite the team's record over certain stretches, that's fine.  The playoff run is worth noting as well.

But we've also got a large sample that shows the team playing significantly better with Kyrie than without him.
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Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #39 on: January 16, 2019, 02:54:20 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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I feel like it's important for people to keep in mind the following:

2018-2019

Kyrie ON (1218 min) ... +9.7
ORTG - 116.3
DRTG - 106.6

Kyrie OFF (865 min) ... +0.9
ORTG - 106.5
DRTG - 105.6

Net = +8.6


2017-2018

Kyrie ON (1928 min) ... +6.4
ORTG - 114.4
DRTG - 108.0

Kyrie OFF (2029 min) ... +1.3
ORTG - 105.2
DRTG - 103.9

Net = +5.3



Cite the team's record over certain stretches, that's fine.  The playoff run is worth noting as well.

But we've also got a large sample that shows the team playing significantly better with Kyrie than without him.
Another way to read this is that the starting lineup is comfortably outscoring our opponents, whereas the second unit is about average.

Kyrie is playing the majority of his minutes alongside other starters. When he's not on the floor, it's because CBS is resting him alongside other starters. Not a big surprise that we play relatively poorly whenever Yabu, Theis, Rozier and those guys are sharing the court.

Re: IF last seasons ECF unit, started this season....
« Reply #40 on: January 16, 2019, 02:55:46 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Last season’s ECF unit almost lost in the first round of the playoffs.  They snuck by a poorly coached bucks team in 7 games.  If they lose in game 7 and don’t get the opportunity to cruise by an unprepared sixer team, nobody would think we are some juggernaut that can just flip a switch. 

This team isn’t as good as people think.  It’s a one star team.  Right now we only go as far as kyrie takes us.  Until we either see Hayward get 100%, Tatum make a leap, or a trade for a second star, we might continue to be mediocre all year.

Exactly. I think some are a little delusional about how "good" last year's playoff team was.

delusional how

they still made it to the ECF

and it did take full home court adv

which the team earned in the regular season

soo all of that work was delusional?
The team that had Kyrie Irving did that :P

he contributed but the hayward/irvingless unit did the majority of heavy lifting

After Kyrie went down, the team finished 9-6 (.600) over the final 15 games of the regular season. Over the first 67 games, they went 46-21 (.680).
They were 5-2 without Irving in the first 67 games though as well, which raises that win percentage to 63.6% (with him stays at 68%).  That doesn't include the Charlotte game in which he played under 2 minutes (and the team was -6) which Boston won (that one was during the streak and Irving missed the next game also a win).  If you count that one as a win without him, that goes to 15-8 which is 65%.

OK. So what triboy wrote is still wrong. Especially when PhoSita's post above is taken into consideration.
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