I want to talk to you folks about cap space and Deron Williams. I'm encouraged by Boston's recent play. I still say we are undermanned, but we are showing encouraging signs. KG still has game. It probably makes sense to bring him back next year even at his age. We will have options this offseason. We could just try to bring back the same team... or we could renounce everyone and target a major free agent.
As far as I can tell, there is only one "franchise" player likely available this offseason and that's Deron Williams. He has a player option for next season and he hasn't taken it. All signs point to him being an UNRESTRICTED free agent this summer... meaning any team with cap space will be able to sign him.
Some notes on Deron: Top 3 point guard in this league. Already proved capable of taking a team to the WCF. Lead Utah to three straight 50+ win seasons as their best player and leader. Got them out of the 1st round three times. Did so while averaging roughly 19 points, 11 assists, 1.3 steals, 46% FG, 35% from three and 81% from the line (all without hall of famers surrounding him). He's 27 years old and a franchise player. MOre importantly, he's an unrestricted free agent franchise player... which should put him on top of your wish list above guys like Eric Gordon and OJ Mayo (both of which are restricted and probably unrealistic to target). I don't think giving a max contract to Deron Williams is "overpaying". With Dwight off the market... he's the lone "top free agent".
Not interested in hearing "Rondo is better". That opinion is irrelevant. A basketball team does not often have an opportunity to add a "franchise player" to the mix without giving anything up. You wouldn't need to "trade" for Deron. You would simply need to extend him a max offer and hope he signs it. Alas, this does not come without a price.
The "price" of landing a max talent: First of all, I believe a "max contract" (not involving a sign-and-trade) would give him a starting salary of 17.4 mil (30% of a 58 mil cap for a 7-9 year vet). In order to offer Deron that max deal, you'd first need to renounce the rights to Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, etc (Pietrus, Dooling, Wilcox, JO... ). Once you RENOUNCE those rights, you are left with roughly 28 mil in cap space. You'll need to use some of that money to sign our two 1st rounders... so lets call it 26 mil to be safe. Presuming Deron takes the max offer (17.4 mil), you now only have 8.6 million left in cap space. That may, in fact, price you out of bringing back Kevin Garnett (who most assume will get 10-12 mil next year), but you should have enough to bring back ONE of the following (Ray Allen, Jeff Green or Brandon Bass). Additionally, presumably if you sign Deron Williams, the next move is to offer up Rondo on the open market to the highest bidder. This is a tough one for a lot of Celtic fans to stomach, but it doesn't make much sense to have two dominant point guards. I'm of the belief that the Celtics owners/management would prefer Deron over Rondo, but that's besides the point. Once you sign Deron you can't trade him... so Rondo would have to be the guy you move. Luckily Rondo (as a top 6 PG himself) should have significant value on the open market. Something along the lines of a Josh Smith or a Al Jefferson isn't out of the question.
Hypothetical Deron example 1: Sign Deron to a max deal. Trade Rondo straight up for Josh Smith (13 mil next season)... that leaves only aprox 6.6 mil left over. Offer that to Jeff Green. Team next year: PG - Deron, SG - Jeff Green, SF - Pierce, PF - Josh Smith, C - Rookie?
Comments: When Pierce comes off the books, you'd likely have cap space to put a 3rd young player around Smith and Deron. Losing KG isn't desirable.
Hypothetical Deron example 2: Sign Deron to a max deal. Perhaps we should explore trading Rondo to a team with cap space. Crazy EXAMPLE to highlight this concept... if you traded Rondo to Indiana for Paul George, it changes everything (and yes, I know Rondo should fetch more than George... this is a hypothetical). Indiana could swallow Rondo's 11 mil salary and give us back Paul George's 2.5 mil. That now frees up an additional 8.5 million in cap space for next year... 17.1 total. Meaning, you could now go out and offer another close-to-max deal to a player of your choosing. OR, you could bring back KG (10 mil) and Jeff Green (7 mil) and ride out next season with the following: PG - Deron, SG - Paul George, SF - Pierce, PF - Jeff Green, C - Kevin Garnett. YOu get the basic gist. We could use Rondo to try to land a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft, for instance if it meant shedding significant salary. You'd have the luxury of doing that with Deron on board.
Hypothetical Deron example 3: I'll call this one the insane-o pipe dream hypothetical. Sign Deron to a max contract. Presuming the Magic flutter in the playoffs this year, I'm still entirely convinced that they will trade Dwight Howard THIS offseason. He's only signed through next year and I still see no signs of him extending beyond that. Seems to me, the Magic may want to trade him this offseason. In that case, my money is still on him going to Brooklyn in a package (with Brooklyn keeping Deron, actually), but in this hypothetical we are pretending that that Boston has already convinced Deron to come on board. Offer Rondo and both 1st rounders to Orlando for Dwight HOward. Done. Team heading forward: PG - Deron, SG - Figure it out later, SF - Pierce, PF - FIgure it out later, C - Dwight Howard. WE're officially out of cap space. To maximize said pipe dream... desperately beg KG and Ray to sign for the vet minimum. Alternatively, amnesty Paul Pierce and sign a 3rd young star to play with Deron and Dwight. Win title.
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So those are your three Deron-centric hypotheticals. That's your lone (realistic) chance of adding a "franchise player" in the offseason. Seems to me the alternative would be to forget about the cap space entirely and just bring back KG, Ray, Green, Bass, etc using bird rights. Then, the most we can hope to do to "improve" the team is to sign someone with mid-level exception... long-shot pipe dream at Chris Kaman, for example but more likely a Kwame Brown or something. Of course, we'll have two late 1st rounders in the 20s to add to the mix as well... so I don't judge anyone who just wants to bring the old band back for another season or two until Pierce's contract comes off the books.
Option 3 seems to be some kind of "blow it up" involving targetting restricted free agents (Mayo, Gordon, Hibbert, for example). With this, you run the risk of missing out on the restricted free agents when their teams match... and then you're stuck with only 25 mil in cap space... which might not even be enough to bring back everyone as-is (since you wouldn't be able to exceed the cap to sign them).