Will Indy Beat us in First Round?

[slamtheking]

Indiana has been below .500 since Oladipo went down.  There is no way that Boston should even be challenged by Indiana in the playoffs this year.

Yup.  And if they beat us, I'll look forward to the offseason culling. 

I don't care about what happens over the remainder of this season.  Home court vs Indiana is irrelevant. 

I suspect that should we lose in the first round, there'll be a bloodletting of the roster with the primary goal to obtain AD.

Isn't that the plan regardless?

getting AD, yes.  but, speculation has been Danny will hold as much back from the deal as possible with the idea of running it back with AD in place of some players (Tatum and probably Smart and Williams).  This would have included resigning our FA's Rozier and Morris.  If we lose in the first round, I'd be more than a tad surprised if Danny didn't flush the roster of pretty much anyone left he doesn't project as a starter --> essentially Kyrie, Brown (if not in AD deal), Hayward, Al.  I'm not saying everyone else has to go but if we have 7 people from this year's roster on next year's team I'd be fairly surprised.

[Erik]

Do you deny that this Celtics team has exhibited those problematic traits?

I don't deny it because every team has exhibited those problematic traits. My contention is that it's not a problem specific to the Celtics. The Sixers just lost to the Hawks. The Raptors just lost to the Hornets. Are you telling me that there aren't fans similar to you on those forums saying "Man this team can't even beat the Hornets, how can they possible win vs X?" It's just really narrow thinking, no offense. The big picture is simple: The Celtics have a better roster and coach than the Pacers based on data and an overwhelming majority of opinion outside of Indiana. If you simulate 1 million games between these two teams, the Celtics should win more than 50% of the games. If you're going to have an opinion outside of this, you're not playing the odds and just want to be a contrarian or skeptic. There's room for people like you in life because you keep people honest, but you're just not going to win a lot of bets in the long run.

Even if you are right and the Pacers win, that's just results based thinking and confirmation bias:
If I tell you to pick a number from 1-10, but it's more likely that the number is above 5, and you pick 3 and win, you might feel like you outsmarted me, but in reality, you just took a bad bet and got lucky. Over a million instances, you'd be worse off.

[footey]

I’m more in PhoSita’s doom and gloom camp. Not based on stats.

Recency bias? Heck, the team we’re watching now is playing like the team we saw during pre-season. How recent was that?

Sure every team, including Raptors, Warriors and Sixers, have had their recent share of clunkers. But obviously not at the same rate as we have. Our record is considerably worse. Factor that into our projection of being better than the other Eastern teams and, well, it hurts. I’ve had a sick feeling in my stomach since the fourth quarter of the Charlotte game.

I hate admitting this, but LarBird was right (for once). Our expectations for this team were unrealistically high. The season has borne this out.

[liam]

Do you deny that this Celtics team has exhibited those problematic traits?

I don't deny it because every team has exhibited those problematic traits. My contention is that it's not a problem specific to the Celtics. The Sixers just lost to the Hawks. The Raptors just lost to the Hornets. Are you telling me that there aren't fans similar to you on those forums saying "Man this team can't even beat the Hornets, how can they possible win vs X?" It's just really narrow thinking, no offense. The big picture is simple: The Celtics have a better roster and coach than the Pacers based on data and an overwhelming majority of opinion outside of Indiana. If you simulate 1 million games between these two teams, the Celtics should win more than 50% of the games. If you're going to have an opinion outside of this, you're not playing the odds and just want to be a contrarian or skeptic. There's room for people like you in life because you keep people honest, but you're just not going to win a lot of bets in the long run.

Even if you are right and the Pacers win, that's just results based thinking and confirmation bias:
If I tell you to pick a number from 1-10, but it's more likely that the number is above 5, and you pick 3 and win, you might feel like you outsmarted me, but in reality, you just took a bad bet and got lucky. Over a million instances, you'd be worse off.

I think we'll end up with maybe 6 fifty win teams. That is usually the mark that says you were a very good team during the year. A truly great regular season team wins 60. Are their even going to be any 60 win teams this year?  I think there is more parity in the league this year than there has been in a long time. There is no coasting through games and expecting talent alone to get you a win even against the tanking teams. Well, maybe the Knicks but even they beat The Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee.

[celticsclay]

People are really acting strange on this forum. Yes we are playing bad and losing some games we wish we would have won the last few weeks. But why are we just ignoring the implosion in Indiana? They just ended a 4 game losing streak themselves. They are 4-7 in March (we are 6-6).For as  bad as we have played, they are playing worse. They also have only two games left against teams not holding a playoff spot (we have 3).

[footey]

People are really acting strange on this forum. Yes we are playing bad and losing some games we wish we would have won the last few weeks. But why are we just ignoring the implosion in Indiana? They just ended a 4 game losing streak themselves. They are 4-7 in March (we are 6-6).For as  bad as we have played, they are playing worse. They also have only two games left against teams not holding a playoff spot (we have 3).

Love your optimism Clay. Wish I could share it.

[Tr1boy]

Indy plays hard

they beat the Nuggets the other day

not a easy win + no oladipo

bodanovic with 35 pts

team doesn't care who scores.... just find ways to win. Max effort

If they beat the Celts , I will be rooting for them.  Sabonis is a player I like

[Celtics4ever]

I think we can beat Indy.....

[celticsclay]

People are really acting strange on this forum. Yes we are playing bad and losing some games we wish we would have won the last few weeks. But why are we just ignoring the implosion in Indiana? They just ended a 4 game losing streak themselves. They are 4-7 in March (we are 6-6).For as  bad as we have played, they are playing worse. They also have only two games left against teams not holding a playoff spot (we have 3).

Love your optimism Clay. Wish I could share it.

I am not even sure how pointing out Indy has played even worse than us this month is optimism?

[footey]

People are really acting strange on this forum. Yes we are playing bad and losing some games we wish we would have won the last few weeks. But why are we just ignoring the implosion in Indiana? They just ended a 4 game losing streak themselves. They are 4-7 in March (we are 6-6).For as  bad as we have played, they are playing worse. They also have only two games left against teams not holding a playoff spot (we have 3).

Love your optimism Clay. Wish I could share it.

I am not even sure how pointing out Indy has played even worse than us this month is optimism?

F: we suck
CC: yeah but Indy sucks even more

[Phantom255x]

I hate to say it, but if we remain the 5 seed, then IND could beat us in 7 games.

It's really dumb. IND has had a brutal schedule and have had a mini-implosion, yet the C's literally can't take any sort of advantage. The 4 seed is just begging to be ours and we're like, "ehh, we're fine with the 5th seed thank you" 

[nickagneta]

I see the Celtics taking out Indy in 4 or 5 games. I think the C's will roll the Pacers most games.

[KGs Knee]

Two things will need to happen for Boston to have any success in the playoffs:

Kyrie goes HAM

"Playoff Horford" makes an appearance

[PhoSita]

People are really acting strange on this forum. Yes we are playing bad and losing some games we wish we would have won the last few weeks. But why are we just ignoring the implosion in Indiana? They just ended a 4 game losing streak themselves. They are 4-7 in March (we are 6-6).For as  bad as we have played, they are playing worse. They also have only two games left against teams not holding a playoff spot (we have 3).

Love your optimism Clay. Wish I could share it.

I am not even sure how pointing out Indy has played even worse than us this month is optimism?

F: we suck
CC: yeah but Indy sucks even more

I don't even necessarily disagree with this.  My thinking is as follows:

(1) Indy is well-coached and they try hard consistently

(2) Boston gives inconsistent effort and has shown a tendency to lapse into hero ball / poor decisionmaking when things get tough / tight.


I expect the Celts to make more mistakes and have more let-downs over the course of a seven game series, especially on the road.

The Celts aren't good enough that I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt against basically any opponent that has home court advantage over them.



We are basically the Wizards.  That's how I see the Celts at this point.  Wizards redux.

[SHAQATTACK]

Nope .