'22-23 NBA Futures Bets

[Donoghus]

With the NBA season starting soon, I figured I'd open up a betting discussion on NBA futures.  You'll also notice that Roy tweaked the Fantasy Sports subtopic to include gambling for future reference.

From DraftKings so odds may vary.

To Win title

LAC +550
BOS +600
GSW +600
BKN +700
MIL +800
PHX +1200
PHI +1500
LAL +1800
DEN +1800
MIA +2000
DAL  +2000
MEM +2200
CLE +3000
NO +3500
MIN +3500
ATL +4500
TOR +4500
CHI +5000
POR +8000
NYK +15000
CHA +18000
WAS +40000
SAC  +70000
DET +70000
UT +100000
SAS +100000
OKC +100000
ORL +100000
IND +100000
HOU +100000

Wins O/U

BOS 53.5
MIL 52.5
LAC 52.5
PHX 52.5
GSW 51.5
BKN 50.5
PHI 50.5
DEN 49.5
MEM 48.5
DAL 48.5
MIA 48.5
MIN 48.5
CLE 47.5
ATL 45.5
TOR 45.5
NOP 44.5
CHI 42.5
POR 39.5
NYK 39.5
CHA 36.5
WAS 35.5
SAC 33.5
DET 29.5
ORL 26.5
UT 24.5
IND 23.5
OKC 23.5
HOU 23.5
SAS 22.5

Regular Season MVP

Luka +425
Giannis +600
Embiid +650
Durant +800
Jokic +900
Curry +1200
Tatum +1200
Morant +1500
James +1800
Kawhi +3000
Booker +3000
Trae +3500
Zion +3500
Dame +4000
Butler +5000
KAT +5000

Plenty others at +6000 and greater.

Rookie of the Year

Banchero +190
Murray +450
Ivey +700
Smith Jr. +700
Mathurin +1000
Sharpe +1800
Daniels +2000
Davis +2500
Dieng +2500
Jalen Williams +3000
Duren +3000
Agbaji +3000
Mark Williams +3500
Hardy +3500
Griffin +3500
Sochan +4000
Wesley +4000
Branham +4500
Kessler +4500
Jovic +5000
Beauchamp +5000
Terry +5000
Moore Jr. +5000

Plenty more at +6000 and greater.

[Celtics2021]

I took Boston at the under on 54.5 to hedge against disappointment, and it moved down a win with the Ime/Rob news of last week.  Feeling disappointed, I doubled down on my hedge and took the under of 49.5 with elevated odds.

I’d love to bet on us for a title, but those odds feel way too optimistic (although not as optimistic as the Lakers odds).  Also, it looks as if the Lakers are still off the board for a win total, which I will bet the under on at 44.5 or more.

If I find myself in a state that allows online betting the next two weeks, I’d also take the over on Toronto and the under on the Knicks.

I also have an alternate odds bet on the Pelicans to win more than 48.5 games.  Between Zion returning, a full year of McCollum, and a third of the West tanking for Victor, I think they’ll take a big leap this year.

EDIT:  The Lakers are at 45.5 (just checked).  I would take that under.  Hopefully I find myself in NH or NY before the season starts.

[bdm860]

I'd take the over on GS, CHA, SAS, under on UTA.


Looks like LAL is missing from O/U, they're at 45.5, give me the under.

[Celtics2021]

I'd take the over on GS, CHA, SAS, under on UTA.


Looks like LAL is missing from O/U, they're at 45.5, give me the under.

Interesting on your take about Charlotte.  I’d take the under on them.  Without a Bridges this year, I see them tanking relatively quickly for better lotto odds.  I do like Ball, but Bridges was a major component to their success last year.

[sgrogan]

I'd take the over on GS, CHA, SAS, under on UTA.


Looks like LAL is missing from O/U, they're at 45.5, give me the under.

GS looks enticing.
There 2nd 5 is
Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody, DiVincenzo, Poole with J. Green in reserve if Wiseman flops.
They won 53 last year without their "starting" 5, Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Looney, ever playing together.

[Moranis]

Milwaukee at +800 and Phoenix over 52.5 seem like the 2 best bets of the top tier teams.  I think the Bucks going over 52.5 also seems like a pretty safe bet.  Curry seems like the best bet at MVP (though I wouldn't necessarily favor him to win it, but given the odds that seems like the bet worth taking).  I think Banchero will win ROY, but his odds aren't good so I probably wouldn't bet on that if I was inclined to bet.

If you told me that Leonard and George were each going to play 70 games or so and both would be healthy for the entire playoffs, then I would like the Clippers a lot more, I just don't know if all of that is actually going to happen.

As more of a flyer, I'd take the Cavs to win the title, to go over 47.5, and for Mitchell to win MVP.  Much lower odds, which makes the bet more worthwhile.  And I do think the Cavs are going to be a pretty darn good team and will probably win a whole heck of a lot of regular season games.  They have a lot of depth and a lot of really good players.  They lack the true top end talent to truly compete for a title I think, but their depth is going to cause teams problems and they should be able to withstand injuries more than most teams (which helps a lot during the grind of the regular season).

[Vermont Green]

CLE over 47.5 seems like a good bet. 

[SparzWizard]

I think I'll take the under for Boston. Don't think we'll crack 53.5 wins...that run last year in the second half was magical but I think we're back to the old pattern. That said, hope Mazz and the squad could rally together tho and push for a deep playoff run.

Clippers +550? They must be a very deadly team with Kawhi and PG13 healthy. Will be interesting to watch them...need them to help take out the Warriors and Lakers.

Denver's prob the dark horse. Murray will be back. Jokic will continue to be exceptional. And they added Brown.

[Celtics2021]

I think I'll take the under for Boston. Don't think we'll crack 53.5 wins...that run last year in the second half was magical but I think we're back to the old pattern. That said, hope Mazz and the squad could rally together tho and push for a deep playoff run.

Clippers +550? They must be a very deadly team with Kawhi and PG13 healthy. Will be interesting to watch them...need them to help take out the Warriors and Lakers.

Denver's prob the dark horse. Murray will be back. Jokic will continue to be exceptional. And they added Brown.

Yeah, if I were to bet on a team with a somewhat realistic chance to win, I’d pick Denver because of those odds.  Getting back Murray and Porter could be real big for them.  I think KCP will be a good role player for what they need as well.

[Donoghus]

I think I'll take the under for Boston. Don't think we'll crack 53.5 wins...that run last year in the second half was magical but I think we're back to the old pattern. That said, hope Mazz and the squad could rally together tho and push for a deep playoff run.

Clippers +550? They must be a very deadly team with Kawhi and PG13 healthy. Will be interesting to watch them...need them to help take out the Warriors and Lakers.

Denver's prob the dark horse. Murray will be back. Jokic will continue to be exceptional. And they added Brown.

Yeah, if I were to bet on a team with a somewhat realistic chance to win, I’d pick Denver because of those odds.  Getting back Murray and Porter could be real big for them.  I think KCP will be a good role player for what they need as well.

DEN has bitten me in the butt two seasons in a row on the title bets.  I don't think I'll make it a third! 

[Redz]

+53.5 on the Celts clinched tonight! 

Other pre-season futures I still have in play:

Celts and Sixers to finish first and second in the division respectively (still looks good).

Tatum for MVP fizzled

Banchero for rookie of the year seems solid

Nurkic rebounding leader - nope
Sabonis rebounding - yup (I was hoping one of the two would win, and the odds were actually really nice for Sabonis).

Celts to Winn it all?
We shall see

[bdm860]

Gee, thanks Redz for bumping a thread with some of my most embarrassing takes.

I'd take the over on GS, CHA, SAS, under on UTA.


Looks like LAL is missing from O/U, they're at 45.5, give me the under.

Let's see if I can recall my thinking:

GS 51.5, over.  They won 53 games last year, but now would have both Klay and Steph healthy for a whole year (along with Poole and Wiggins to ease the burden), Winning the championship again would help give them a little boost.  Plus they're going to add Wiseman to the mix!  This is an easy one.

CHA 36.5, over.  They won 43 games the prior year, but wouldn't have Bridges.  My thinking was, Bridges wasn't going to be that big of a deal, he looked better than he was playing with Ball, Ball is what makes that team go.  Plus they have enough good vets (Hayward, Rozier, Plumlee, Oubre) to keep the team competitive.  They should be right around .500 give or take a couple of wins.

SAS 22.5, over.  I thought Pop had enough of a weird mix of vets and young guys to accidentally win too many games before the vets would all be shipped out, and also kind of expected another draft steal with one of their young guys (because they're San Antonio).  Thought they'd win about 25.

UTA 24.5, under.  With the Gobert, Mitchell, and Bogdanović trades, I thought we were seeing the rebirth of Trader Danny.  I expected everybody not on a rookie contract with a pulse (Olynyk, Conley, Markkanen, Clarkson) to be moved for picks and projects in a seemingly never ending stream of trades starting in the beginning of the season, so the team would never get any rhythm as Danny stockpiles the war chest while tanking for Wembanyama.

LAL 45.5, under.  My one saving grace.