Author Topic: What is IT4's intrinsic value?  (Read 4809 times)

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What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« on: May 26, 2016, 10:49:10 AM »

Online A Future of Stevens

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*This is not a TRADE IT4 NOW!!!!!!! thread*

So as some here have stated, I am a little uncomfortable about basing our future around Isaiah. Now this isn't to say I hate the guy, I don't, I love his spirit for this team. This got me thinking about what his trade value even is at this juncture of his career.

IT is worth so much to the Celtics because he is THE scorer for our team as currently constructed. We don't really have any other consistent scorers. To his credit, Thomas has lived up to that role and has shut down all of the haters.

However, he is also a 27 year old 5'9 pg who even though theoretically should be in his "prime" age wise, this most likely isn't the case. Most shorter guards rely on some combination of quickness, speed and verticality to be able to operate in this league with the big boys. Because of this, they are more susceptible to the breakdown of their game due to their waning athleticism. I believe Isaiah knows this perception,and is already trying to combat it by talking about how he is eating healthier.

So realistically how long does he have left at a high level? 2-3 years before a rapid decline? Does he become a spot up shooter once his athleticism declines to the point where he can't create space? Or does he fill that Jason Kidd role we saw with the knicks (passing and spot up 3s.) Hard to tell.

IT Pros: 1.) stat line of 22.2 pts/ 6.2 apg /3.0 rpg/ 21.54 PER on 42.8/35.9/86.3 shooting splits.
2.) Due to the aforementioned stat line and our success: 1st All Star Team selection
3.) Along with Marcus is the heart, soul and swagger of our team
4.) Is literally this teams offense
5.) On a historically great contract for his production (in contrast to the current exploding cap)

Cons: 1.) Is 27, which for most players isn't bad, but as said above, short players don't play by the same rules.
2.) In 2018 he will become an UFA and he will want close to a max deal (he should want it, he is very, very good.) This combined with point 1 on a 4-5 year deal is not a good idea.
3.) While we are able to hide his defensive deficiencies (and he has improved in this area,) his defense will be even worse as he begins to age.
4.) Age doesn't necessarily mesh with the possible direction of this team. IF Ainge actually builds through the draft, Isaiah will be declining as our "good" players are ascending.
5.) Probably matters more for our teams success than he would on another.
6.) Is literally this teams offense.

So what would teams be willing to give up in order to acquire Isaiah? He is obviously worth more than the 1st rounder we got him for. But what is the value on a 5'9 gunner who most likely only has a few more years of brilliance left?

Let the discussion begin.

Sources: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6472/isaiah-thomas
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/isaiah-thomas/
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 11:15:35 AM by A Future of Stevens »
#JKJB

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2016, 11:03:44 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Unfortunately, it is 2018, not 2019 when he will be an UFA - similar to Bradley.

I am not sure where I stand on the issue. I definitely want to keep him through this year and see how he meshes with our new 'star' (whoever that might be). It might also continue to increase his trade value since people still [somehow] see him as unproven.

Giving IT a max deal in two years seems questionable, to say the least. That is not saying he doesn't deserve it, but it's the same thing that gives people pause when they compare him to Irving or Lillard even though their production is relatively the same.

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2016, 11:11:05 AM »

Offline Who

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I think IT could net a pick in the 7-14 range in this year's draft.

In terms of an established player, I think Kris Middleton or a Greg Monroe.

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2016, 11:16:39 AM »

Online A Future of Stevens

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Unfortunately, it is 2018, not 2019 when he will be an UFA - similar to Bradley.

I am not sure where I stand on the issue. I definitely want to keep him through this year and see how he meshes with our new 'star' (whoever that might be). It might also continue to increase his trade value since people still [somehow] see him as unproven.

Giving IT a max deal in two years seems questionable, to say the least. That is not saying he doesn't deserve it, but it's the same thing that gives people pause when they compare him to Irving or Lillard even though their production is relatively the same.

Wow must have read it way too quick or something. Modified it, thankyou.
#JKJB

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2016, 11:18:30 AM »

Online A Future of Stevens

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I think IT could net a pick in the 7-14 range in this year's draft.

In terms of an established player, I think Kris Middleton or a Greg Monroe.

I agree on the pick range in this year's draft. I also most likely agree on the players. Isn't it interesting however that given his production and age, we still quantify his worth at roughly this level? Most 1st time all Stars with his production and meaning for a team get a lot bigger haul than what we are discussing here.

It has to be tied to his height and the limitations that brings right?
#JKJB

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2016, 11:44:36 AM »

Offline Denis998

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Without him, we go back to a high lottery team. Whatever we get back should be worth dropping 2 years of progress.

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2016, 11:48:59 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Just pretend he's 30 and your expectations for trades and his career longevity will probably be about right.

Basically, add a year for each inch under six feet.
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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2016, 12:06:32 PM »

Offline mef730

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I've actually thought a lot about this question. Frankly, I would have no problem with a "trade IT" thread. His value is never going to be higher. He had an all-star regular season and has two years left on a ridiculous contract. No team would give up anything of value for one year, but they might for two.

The problem that I keep coming back to is this: IT is made for the Celtics. He is The Guy in a system built around him as the only offensive weapon. On the Celtics, he's an A or an A+. On most other teams, he's a B. Thus, we would demand an A/A+ return for him because that's his value to us, but others would only be willing to pay us B value.

Mike

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2016, 12:29:23 PM »

Online A Future of Stevens

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Just pretend he's 30 and your expectations for trades and his career longevity will probably be about right.

Basically, add a year for each inch under six feet.

So what do you think the celtics should do with mighty mouse pho?
#JKJB

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2016, 12:30:27 PM »

Online A Future of Stevens

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I've actually thought a lot about this question. Frankly, I would have no problem with a "trade IT" thread. His value is never going to be higher. He had an all-star regular season and has two years left on a ridiculous contract. No team would give up anything of value for one year, but they might for two.

The problem that I keep coming back to is this: IT is made for the Celtics. He is The Guy in a system built around him as the only offensive weapon. On the Celtics, he's an A or an A+. On most other teams, he's a B. Thus, we would demand an A/A+ return for him because that's his value to us, but others would only be willing to pay us B value.

Mike

Yea I agree completely. He is in such a unique situation with us that it would be hard for fair value to be given. As said above, he could get a pick in this year's draft in the 7-14 range, but he is worth alot more to us than that.
#JKJB

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2016, 12:44:09 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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I think, if he goes back to a 6th man role, and Marcus breaks out this season and/or next, we would be able to keep him without sacrificing max money for him. If he's a 6th man, he's scoring less and not an all star, true, but his money value is also less. I'd keep Isaiah around as a 6th man till the day he retires, and for good money too. Not a max, but I'm fine giving him solid money.

I think, especially if we are a contender, Isaiah would take one for the team and take less money to stay.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2016, 12:57:02 PM »

Online jbpats

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I think IT could net a pick in the 7-14 range in this year's draft.

In terms of an established player, I think Kris Middleton or a Greg Monroe.

I agree with the established players but the draft range is off IMO.

I don't think you trade an all star on a bargain contract for a draft pick in the 7-14 range in an extremely weak draft. I also don't think you get Kris Middleton or Greg Monroe for a 7-14 draft pick either.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2016, 01:03:46 PM by jbpats »

Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2016, 12:57:49 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Just pretend he's 30 and your expectations for trades and his career longevity will probably be about right.

Basically, add a year for each inch under six feet.

So what do you think the celtics should do with mighty mouse pho?

Ride him till he breaks down. Don't sign him to a deal longer than a couple years after this contract. Have a succession plan in place.

His value is higher to the Celts than anybody else. Hard to see that changing unless the Celts add a superstar who needs the ball all the time.
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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2016, 01:13:14 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Quote
Is 27, which for most players isn't bad, but as said above, short players don't play by the same rules.

Several people in this thread have re-iterated this sort of assertion:  That short players don't age as well as taller players.

I have found NO evidence to support this assertion and if anything, plenty that contradicts it.

I did a study some time back on this.  Here is what I found:

Here is the list of the 23 players who were 5-11 or shorter who actually played at least 6000 minutes in the NBA (that would be roughly 3 full time seasons, meaning that player was good enough to maybe become a regular rotation player at some point).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=6000&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws#stats::none

The most important thing about this search, is that it shows that there have been very, very few ‘little guys’ who have been good enough to carve out real careers in the NBA. Just 23 names.

That means the statistics for any conclusions about how well they age are going to be based on very tiny numbers.

If you redo the search for height 6-0 or higher, you find that 1328 players have had careers with at least 6000 minutes. Quite a bit more, naturaly.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=30&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=pts_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=mp

Now, let’s do a slightly different search, which is for all the players 5-11 or shorter who are over age 30 and who played enough in at least one season to qualify for the leaderboards. What’s interesting about this list, is that there are 19 names on it.

That means that 19 (83%) of the 23 ‘short’ players who ever carved out any sort of career of just 6000 minutes managed to play at least one rotation-level season after age 30. And 7(30%) of the 23 managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.

If you do the same search for players 6-0 or higher, you get 751 (57%) of the 1328 who managed to play at least one such season after age 30 and 334 (25%) who managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.

If you look at the 'really short guys' -- 5' 9" or shorter -- it gets even more interesting, because there are only 10 such guys (including Isaiah and Nate who played this last year) and most of them played _very_ productively past age 30.

Conclusion: I don't see any real evidence that a 'little guy' is any more likely to age worse than a big guy.   If anything the data says the contrary.

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Re: What is IT4's intrinsic value?
« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2016, 01:14:42 PM »

Offline Grindfather

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If by intrinsic value you mean a non-situational, objective value, I think there are only a few players in the league that have a true intrinsic value.  This would be the superstar class: Curry, LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, Westbrook, CP3, Paul George, Harden, Anthony Davis, maybe Klay Thompson and Dame Lillard.  These are players that would hold really high value in any situation.  No matter what team, if you added one of these superstars, they would improve your chances to win, either directly by their play or their ability to attract other high quality players. 

The value of nearly everyone else in the league is situation-specific.  I think that includes people like Karl-Anthony Towns, who everyone realizes is probably top 5 in trade value.  Towns, however, doesn't hold the same value to a team like Cleveland or Golden State because they need to win now and would not necessarily want a young guy, no matter how potentially great, instead of veteran contributor who is going help win a title this year or next.  Young teams or rebuilding teams are going to value young, low-salary, high upside guys more vets that are currently playing at a higher level. 

I'd say IT's value to the Celtics is way higher than it would be to say, Charlotte, who has a similar player in Kemba Walker and wouldn't want to give up much to acquire him.  This can be said of almost everyone.  Keeping it close to home, a good example is Avery Bradley.  Before OKC truly challenged the Warriors in the West and it looked like it would definitely be a GSW/Cavs Finals again, I was saying that Avery Bradley's value to the Cavs was equal to Kevin Love.  Bradley is probably the best one-on-one Curry defender in the league.  If the Cavs wanted to beat Golden State in the Finals, trading Love to Boston for Bradley would probably do more to help than keeping Love, who gets roasted in PnRs and is now not even playing in 4th quarters.  This an extreme example, but it goes to show how situation-dependent value can be.