Tatum is a 38% shooter for his career. He is below 32% this year. He'd be at 131 made instead of 109, so 22 additional misses. Horford has missed an extra 11 just based on his career average. Now Brown is at least close, but he still has missed 4 extra 3's this year instead of his career. But if you took those 37 extra misses and Boston as a team goes up 36% instead of 34%. Still a bit off last year, but all 3 of those guys also shot above their career averages last year. Had they shot the same percentages as last year Brown adds 9, Horford adds 12, and Tatum adds 24 or 45 extra 3's and now the team is up to 36.5%. If you add Smart, then the team is basically the same as last year as Smart went from 33% last year to 30.4% this year, which is 5 extra misses.
Is it just the DeRozan effect? Vucevic is taking 4.9 3's a game. That isn't exactly a low volume. He is only hitting them at 32.8 so he is bringing down the percentage a lot.
If you have DeRozan on your team you will be one of the lowest if not the lowest 3 point shooting attempts in the league since he is a high volume scorer and takes a huge amount of midrange shots and drives but only a few 3s.
They also have Vucevic who takes most of his shots in either the midrange or paint area who is a good scorer also.
Reminds me of the DeRozan-Aldridge duo in San Antonio that also had the Spurs amongst the lowest volume three point shooting in the league.
Boston's big issue is that Tatum isn't hitting his shots at near the percentage you would expect (Brown is also down some), Smart still continues to shoot nearly 5 a game at a low percentage. In addition, Horford has been bad and way below his career average and is over 4 attempts a game. Aside from Smart though, you'd expect Tatum, Brown, and Horford to all shoot better and more in line with their career. If those 3 guys were hitting their career averages (which even that is all well below where they were last year), Boston's percentage would increase significantly. It isn't really a team problem, it is a Tatum, Brown, and Horford problem.
The team has 5 players shooting over 36% from 3pt and only one of them is a starter and thatís Jaylen Brown. The two best 3pt shooters, Richardson and Grant account for only 7 attempts per game, Smart takes 5 and the Jís combine for 18. It absolutely is a team problem. They are having an off year and the coach refuses or is unable to change strategy. Then you have the Bulls With the best record in the east, best 3pt shooting percentage in the league and they take the least amount of 3ís in the NBA. Udoka just has no idea what heís doing with the offense.
The C's best shooters aren't shooting very well. That is the problem with the team. I mean when Dennis Schroder is the best 3 point shooter of everyone with at least 15 games started, that is the problem with the team.
I find myself rarely agreeing with you, Moranis, but it really is as simple as this. Last year Tatum shot 41% on open or wide open 3s. The year before it was 42%.
This year it is 33%. He's even getting a greater percentage his attempts as open and wide open 3s this year (71% of his 3-point attempts, and 27.5% of his overall attempts). When your most dangerous shooter can't hit the most makeable shots, it's a difficult problem to overcome.
I got bored during my lunch break. If the only thing different that happened differently this year was Tatum making his open and wide open 3s at the same rate he did last year (he can continue shooting worse on contested 3s), the Celtics offensive rating would be 1.2 points per 100 higher, bumping them from 22nd to 16th in the league, and their net rating would be 9th overall, ahead of Brooklyn. And given the number of close games the Celtics have lost this year, it's pretty likely the record would be noticeably improved. In other words, holding everything else constant, Tatum making his open 3s at his historical rate bumps the offense from bad to average, and makes them a top 10 team in the league overall. There would probably be some additional benefits that flowed from this as well, but even without it, Tatum getting his shooting right would significantly change this team by itself.
I guess this is also why I'm somewhat hopeful for the rest of the season. Suddenly not being able to hit open shots seems fluky, and a reversion to the mean feels reasonable. It doesn't mean we'd become a title contender, but hoping that a 23 year-old just does the same thing he did as a 21 and 22-year old doesn't feel unrealistic.