The most misused stat of today: Per 36 numbers

[GratefulCs]

Clay, are we no longer dating?

You left the toilet seat up. 

That's a real shame, Clay.  The two of us have been involved in a passionate entirely platonic digital bromance.  It was a very fulfilling relationship... I'd make home dingers... you'd publicly compliment me on my home dingers...  It had everything I look for in a digital bromance:  unabashed exaggerated admiration.   It only lasted a couple weeks, but boy howdy was it delightful.  Everything was going great until you took a dump on Okafor against my wishes.  Not on my watch, Clay.  I guess the two of us will always have Embiid... at least until he turns into a pumpkin and the Philly nightmare continues.    If you adjust our bromance to 36 minutes, I think it was statistically more impactful than the a lot of more celebrated bromances.

We can get back together

go to couples counseling first

[Moranis]

The bottom line is that it's useful in a couple instances.

One is if you're looking at a guy who averages like 20-30 minutes and want to speculate what kind of stats he could put up more minutes and a more pronounced role.   Boston tends to have a pretty balanced roster.  We were overloaded with mediocre big men.   I don't think it was accurate to suggest Jared Sullinger was significantly better than Kelly Olynyk just because Sullinger averaged 13 points and 8 rebounds while Olynyk was averaging 10 points and 4 rebounds.   If Sully was averaging 27 minutes while Olynyk averaged 20 minutes, it's fair to even out both of their minutes to make a comparison.  36 minutes is the standardized number available to us.  So if you average them both out to 36, you'd see those guys were basically dead even statistically.   

The other is to temper enthusiasm about a player putting up huge stats with huge minutes.  Jimmy Butler lead the entire league in minutes during his break-out.  Some people here had the audacity to call him a Superstar and pointed to his big stats in comparison to guys like Crowder and Bradley as proof.  Consider the fact he had more minutes than any player in the league that year.  More minutes = more stats.    The same issue was present when a guy like Rondo averaged 43 minutes in the playoffs.  43 minutes is obscene.  It shouldn't be a surprise that he put up 25% less stats when getting 25% less minutes.   If you looked at Rondo's per-minute production during that playoff run, it was basically the same as any other game.

I think the second part is reasonable.

The first part is not a great example. Sully and KO I don't think will ever be capable of playing the 35 minutes a game you mention Butler played. KO doesn't play much more 23-25 minutes even when there are no other big men on the roster. I personally, think he gets tired cause he lacks strength to body up other big man. Maybe the staff views him as injury prone. For whatever reason, for a player like KO it is kind of a useless stat since it puts him in a context he cant ever be put into (a player playing monster minutes).

The same thing is true of Sully. He flat out sucks if you get his minutes above 27 and they actually tailed his minutes back to a lower level for him to be more effective in his last season here. You really can't scale his numbers up to compare him to anyone else.

So yes if you want to compare players that are starter quality and have shown capable of handling a lot of minutes like Bradley and Crowder versus Butler, sure there is some value there.

However, in many other situations it is misused. You add in the fact that it was developed at a time when players used to all play 36 minutes if they were a star or good starter and it makes it even more confusing (although everyone here is claiming they would NEVER do that).

The problem you keep having is no one is saying Sully and KO will ever play 36 minutes a game.  That isn't what per 36 is, it is merely if you took their stats and normalized them to 36 minutes that is what you get, so you can compare players in an easier fashion.

[hwangjini_1]

PER36 is a projection not a stat because only real numbers that are produced are stats.

I could very well be wrong, but I was under the impression that per 36 was not a projection. Rather, the stat people simple cut a players actual numbers into 36 minute segments, then averaged those segments.

Am I wrong in this?

[Moranis]

PER36 is a projection not a stat because only real numbers that are produced are stats.

I could very well be wrong, but I was under the impression that per 36 was not a projection. Rather, the stat people simple cut a players actual numbers into 36 minute segments, then averaged those segments.

Am I wrong in this?

Per 36 is based on actual per minute production.  So a player's stats are divided into per minute stats and then multiplied by 36 in part because per minute is just weird.  Clay is right that it has been around for awhile and more players played 36 minutes a game then, which is why 36 minutes was chosen.  So it isn't really a projection, it is more a normalizing stat.

[Granath]

When I think about this thread, I think about alldaboston's signature. It's a quote from Beat LA:

I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

Taurean Prince is averaging 5 mpg, 2 points, 1 assist and half a steal per game. But PER 36 he's averaging 14.4 points, 7.2 assists and 3.6 steals. Crowder is averaging 17.8 points but only 2.6 assists and 1.7 steals. OMG, Taurean Prince IS better than Jae Crowder! PER 36 never lies!!!!

[tankcity!]

When I think about this thread, I think about alldaboston's signature. It's a quote from Beat LA:

I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

Taurean Prince is averaging 5 mpg, 2 points, 1 assist and half a steal per game. But PER 36 he's averaging 14.4 points, 7.2 assists and 3.6 steals. Crowder is averaging 17.8 points but only 2.6 assists and 1.7 steals. OMG, Taurean Prince IS better than Jae Crowder! PER 36 never lies!!!!

Where do you think that poster went?

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Tim Duncan is another phenomenal example.   In Duncan's prime he was averaging 39-40 minutes per game.   Over his last 6 games, he was down to 28 minutes per game.   His stats were significantly lower.  From averaging 25/12/3 to averaging 15/9/2.    But look at the guy's Per-36 numbers it's EERIE how consistent he was regardless of whether he was getting 40 or 28 minutes per game.  Just look at it... it's all the proof you need that Per-36 has value.   Same player... just less minutes:

Your example is exactly how per 36 gets misused. Duncan played 39-40 minutes per game and was effective for that period of time. His last 6 years he couldn't perform at that level for that period of time.

He had his minutes limited to prolong his career.   The fact is, in the minutes he played, he was still the same Tim Duncan for the most part. 

Come playoff time, his minutes once again exceeded 35.   Casuals might have been flabberghasted by a resurgent Tim Duncan averaging 18.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 blocks in 35 minutes back in the 2013 playoffs.   Casuals were likely dumfounded to see Duncan put up 18 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.3 steals in 35.7 minutes in the 2015 playoffs.   But folks who knew better, like myself, understood that Duncan was Duncan.  And he had been consistently putting up those numbers for 20 years.  Give him more minutes, he'd put up more stats.

Of course, rarely do fans use Per-36 to discuss players like Tim Duncan.  We use them to talk about young guys who have lesser roles and less minutes and contemplate what they might do with more minutes and a more pronounced role.  It has value for that to a point.  Obviously, a guy averaging less than 15 minutes exclusively coming off the bench... gonna be hard to figure out what they might do with more minutes.   But players averaging 25-31 (like Avery Bradley)... it's interesting to use that stat to discuss what he might do with 36+ minutes and a greater role.

I'm also still very curious to see what Kelly Olynyk might do with a greater role and more minutes.  I'm convinced there's a scenario where he ends up averaging 16-17 points for a team some day.

Strength and conditioning management. We are talking about flesh and bone organisms not machines.

The Spurs deliberately eased Duncan's regular season workload with a view to enabling him to operate at full tilt in the playoffs.