Poll

Guess: Who Is Lebron Playing For After This Season?

Cleveland Cavaliers (He Stays)
33 (30.6%)
Houston Rockets
13 (12%)
Los Angeles Clippers
3 (2.8%)
Los Angeles Lakers
32 (29.6%)
New York Knicks
4 (3.7%)
Boston Celtics (Hey... Who Knows)
4 (3.7%)
Philadelphia 76ers
9 (8.3%)
Milwaukee Bucks
1 (0.9%)
San Antonio Spurs
6 (5.6%)
Other Team (Comment Below!)
3 (2.8%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?  (Read 49777 times)

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Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #180 on: April 03, 2018, 01:26:52 PM »

Offline Androslav

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Moranis admit, how much does he pay you?
Admit.
I don't want to hear an excuse.
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Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #181 on: April 03, 2018, 01:53:51 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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This thinking that Lebron is suddenly going to take a huge step down in performance over the next year or two just reeks of "Max Kellerman...Tom Brady's performance will fall off a cliff" thinking.

Max is looking pretty stupid right about now after making that comment some 18-20 months ago. I can see a lot of people looking just as silly in two years if you're thinking Lebron is just going to start being so much less than he is now.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #182 on: April 03, 2018, 02:01:21 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Lebron wont be leaving the Cavs (unless traded by design)

He probably has a nice cushy exec job lined up (with the Cavs) after he retires. 

Doesn't seem like he cares that much to add another championship under his resume.  Especially as a "guest" by joining another stacked team.  No way he will conform to another system or listen properly to another coach ... unless its under a coach like D'antoni who lets you do whatever

If he was serious about "chasing championships" he would have silently asked to be traded this past trade deadline.

IMO Lebron right now is more concerned about breaking records. And has his sights on regular season total points record

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #183 on: April 03, 2018, 02:06:11 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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This thinking that Lebron is suddenly going to take a huge step down in performance over the next year or two just reeks of "Max Kellerman...Tom Brady's performance will fall off a cliff" thinking.

Max is looking pretty stupid right about now after making that comment some 18-20 months ago. I can see a lot of people looking just as silly in two years if you're thinking Lebron is just going to start being so much less than he is now.

LeBron might slip a little, but it will mostly be in the form of needing more rest days or not quite being at his peak every single night.

It seems pretty far fetched to think he'll be just some average player in 2 or 3 years, though.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #184 on: April 03, 2018, 02:23:06 PM »

Offline Moranis

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This thinking that Lebron is suddenly going to take a huge step down in performance over the next year or two just reeks of "Max Kellerman...Tom Brady's performance will fall off a cliff" thinking.

Max is looking pretty stupid right about now after making that comment some 18-20 months ago. I can see a lot of people looking just as silly in two years if you're thinking Lebron is just going to start being so much less than he is now.

LeBron might slip a little, but it will mostly be in the form of needing more rest days or not quite being at his peak every single night.

It seems pretty far fetched to think he'll be just some average player in 2 or 3 years, though.
Oh Lebron will slip, he has already started slipping, but he is still the best player in the world.  The slip is gradual and will likely remain gradual for a couple of seasons before it accelerates a few seasons down the line.  He can curb a lot of the slip by adapting his game and cutting back on minutes, which I suspect he will do, and why a team like Philly makes a lot of sense for him as they have young players that can shoulder a greater load when James is no longer one of the premier players in the world.
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Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #185 on: April 03, 2018, 02:49:36 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I think him and Paul George on LA with Kuzma, Ingram, and Ball is equally intriguing, but it is a lot less fun to freak out about cause they are not in our division i guess.

Also, I do think this is better for the NBA if LA and Philly are both legit contenders the next couple of years. The league is pretty boring when it is a max of 4 teams that could win before the season starts.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #186 on: April 03, 2018, 02:59:46 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I think him and Paul George on LA with Kuzma, Ingram, and Ball is equally intriguing, but it is a lot less fun to freak out about cause they are not in our division i guess.

Also, I do think this is better for the NBA if LA and Philly are both legit contenders the next couple of years. The league is pretty boring when it is a max of 4 teams that could win before the season starts.

You think he will listen to Walton?

He will prob butt heads with Magic also

Doubt he will sign with the Lakers

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #187 on: April 03, 2018, 03:08:16 PM »

Offline CelticsQuestFor18

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Hate to say it, but if Sixers trade for Kawhi OR sign Lebron, we're doomed.

Either one on that team with Embiid, Fultz, Simmons, etc. YIKES.

Well actually, what would they have to give up besides picks to acquire Leonard? I'd think the Spurs would want another legit piece back (young, growing star).

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #188 on: April 03, 2018, 03:08:23 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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I think him and Paul George on LA with Kuzma, Ingram, and Ball is equally intriguing, but it is a lot less fun to freak out about cause they are not in our division i guess.

Also, I do think this is better for the NBA if LA and Philly are both legit contenders the next couple of years. The league is pretty boring when it is a max of 4 teams that could win before the season starts.

You think he will listen to Walton?

He will prob butt heads with Magic also

Doubt he will sign with the Lakers

Any coach LeBron plays for will be implicitly demoted.  Heck, the GM too.
The Tarstradamus Group, LLC

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #189 on: April 03, 2018, 03:26:36 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I think him and Paul George on LA with Kuzma, Ingram, and Ball is equally intriguing, but it is a lot less fun to freak out about cause they are not in our division i guess.

Also, I do think this is better for the NBA if LA and Philly are both legit contenders the next couple of years. The league is pretty boring when it is a max of 4 teams that could win before the season starts.

You think he will listen to Walton?

He will prob butt heads with Magic also

Doubt he will sign with the Lakers

Any coach LeBron plays for will be implicitly demoted.  Heck, the GM too.

Haha

But Magic is at the same level as Lebum

Lebron is going nowhere...watch

He will worry about breaking the total points record next.

He has already won 3. A few more is nice but winning 2 is already good enough to "judges/outside observers"

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #190 on: April 03, 2018, 03:46:30 PM »

Offline Erik

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Al Horford is averaging 12.8/7.4/4.8 he is on a max contract and he signed that contract coming off a season where he averaged 17.1/8.2/3.6.  Michael Conley signed the largest contract in NBA history coming off a season where he averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists.  Before signing that contract his career bests were 17.2 and 6.5 so it wasn't like that was a fluke down year.  Marc Gasol signed a max contract coming off a season of 17.4/7.8/3.8. 

Those aren't abnormal.  In fact, they are pretty typical.  It appears you have no concept of what players on max contracts actually perform like. 

And you can't predict wear and tear injuries because the reality is not everyone gets them.  Kareem played 74 games his final season at the age of 41.  He played 80 games when he was 40.  78 games when he was 39.  Malone's last season was the only time he played less than 80 games in his career.  Stockton played 82 games at the age of 40 (28 mpg).  He had 1 season in his career where he missed more than 4 games.  Jason Kidd played 76 games at the age of 39.  He missed 18 games his 2nd to last year at age 38, but from 32 to 37 never missed more than 2 games in a season.

There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all.

Sure the "going rate" for max players is inflated, but one thing to note is that older players cannot play defense well due to decrease in lateral quickness (well all quickness, really). The 3 players you cited are all above average defenders which is a significant component of their value. Marc Gasol was actually a DPOY. So you can't say 37 year old Shaq who was hobbling around and couldn't make it back on defense deserved a max deal because he posted the same numbers as 29 year old Marc Gasol.

Anyways that was off topic. Let's get back to the real point:

"There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all. "

Are there? I'll make it even easier for you. They don't even have to be great. Name 150 players, period of any skill level and any kind of mileage (Scalabrine included). 3,000 people have played in the NBA over the last 50 years. Show me that 5% of them have had nearly uninjured careers all the way to 40 since it's countless according to you. Obviously you don't need to because we all know that 27 players out of 3,000 have made it to 40 and only a subset of them would meet your criteria, so your post is hyperbolic.

Again, I am approaching this from a "most likely" perspective while you guys are approaching it from the "anything can happen" perspective. You aren't arguing against me. You are arguing against statistical improbability. For that reason, I am not offended at all, just like I'm not offended when people play the lottery. I'm just a bit surprised, that's all.

I would give LeBron a 2 year max contract. After 2 years, based on a ton of data, he will not be worth it. Giving a 4 year max deal to a 34 year old means you are going the Brooklyn Nets route and putting all your chips on the table for a 2 year window. It may not be a terrible deal, but I don't personally think that it's a good idea to risk a fantastic young core on a Hail Mary. I don't think LeBron on the Sixers gets them a title and they could sign a free agent like Kahwi in 2019 that better fits their timeline.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #191 on: April 03, 2018, 04:19:00 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Al Horford is averaging 12.8/7.4/4.8 he is on a max contract and he signed that contract coming off a season where he averaged 17.1/8.2/3.6.  Michael Conley signed the largest contract in NBA history coming off a season where he averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists.  Before signing that contract his career bests were 17.2 and 6.5 so it wasn't like that was a fluke down year.  Marc Gasol signed a max contract coming off a season of 17.4/7.8/3.8. 

Those aren't abnormal.  In fact, they are pretty typical.  It appears you have no concept of what players on max contracts actually perform like. 

And you can't predict wear and tear injuries because the reality is not everyone gets them.  Kareem played 74 games his final season at the age of 41.  He played 80 games when he was 40.  78 games when he was 39.  Malone's last season was the only time he played less than 80 games in his career.  Stockton played 82 games at the age of 40 (28 mpg).  He had 1 season in his career where he missed more than 4 games.  Jason Kidd played 76 games at the age of 39.  He missed 18 games his 2nd to last year at age 38, but from 32 to 37 never missed more than 2 games in a season.

There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all.

Sure the "going rate" for max players is inflated, but one thing to note is that older players cannot play defense well due to decrease in lateral quickness (well all quickness, really). The 3 players you cited are all above average defenders which is a significant component of their value. Marc Gasol was actually a DPOY. So you can't say 37 year old Shaq who was hobbling around and couldn't make it back on defense deserved a max deal because he posted the same numbers as 29 year old Marc Gasol.

Anyways that was off topic. Let's get back to the real point:

"There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all. "

Are there? I'll make it even easier for you. They don't even have to be great. Name 150 players, period of any skill level and any kind of mileage (Scalabrine included). 3,000 people have played in the NBA over the last 50 years. Show me that 5% of them have had nearly uninjured careers all the way to 40 since it's countless according to you. Obviously you don't need to because we all know that 27 players out of 3,000 have made it to 40 and only a subset of them would meet your criteria, so your post is hyperbolic.

Again, I am approaching this from a "most likely" perspective while you guys are approaching it from the "anything can happen" perspective. You aren't arguing against me. You are arguing against statistical improbability. For that reason, I am not offended at all, just like I'm not offended when people play the lottery. I'm just a bit surprised, that's all.

I would give LeBron a 2 year max contract. After 2 years, based on a ton of data, he will not be worth it. Giving a 4 year max deal to a 34 year old means you are going the Brooklyn Nets route and putting all your chips on the table for a 2 year window. It may not be a terrible deal, but I don't personally think that it's a good idea to risk a fantastic young core on a Hail Mary. I don't think LeBron on the Sixers gets them a title and they could sign a free agent like Kahwi in 2019 that better fits their timeline.
It's also worth noting some of the oldest players that were still effective relied on height and limited athleticism. Dirk, Kareem, Duncan, parish, mutombo

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #192 on: April 03, 2018, 04:53:56 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Al Horford is averaging 12.8/7.4/4.8 he is on a max contract and he signed that contract coming off a season where he averaged 17.1/8.2/3.6.  Michael Conley signed the largest contract in NBA history coming off a season where he averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists.  Before signing that contract his career bests were 17.2 and 6.5 so it wasn't like that was a fluke down year.  Marc Gasol signed a max contract coming off a season of 17.4/7.8/3.8. 

Those aren't abnormal.  In fact, they are pretty typical.  It appears you have no concept of what players on max contracts actually perform like. 

And you can't predict wear and tear injuries because the reality is not everyone gets them.  Kareem played 74 games his final season at the age of 41.  He played 80 games when he was 40.  78 games when he was 39.  Malone's last season was the only time he played less than 80 games in his career.  Stockton played 82 games at the age of 40 (28 mpg).  He had 1 season in his career where he missed more than 4 games.  Jason Kidd played 76 games at the age of 39.  He missed 18 games his 2nd to last year at age 38, but from 32 to 37 never missed more than 2 games in a season.

There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all.

Sure the "going rate" for max players is inflated, but one thing to note is that older players cannot play defense well due to decrease in lateral quickness (well all quickness, really). The 3 players you cited are all above average defenders which is a significant component of their value. Marc Gasol was actually a DPOY. So you can't say 37 year old Shaq who was hobbling around and couldn't make it back on defense deserved a max deal because he posted the same numbers as 29 year old Marc Gasol.

Anyways that was off topic. Let's get back to the real point:

"There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all. "

Are there? I'll make it even easier for you. They don't even have to be great. Name 150 players, period of any skill level and any kind of mileage (Scalabrine included). 3,000 people have played in the NBA over the last 50 years. Show me that 5% of them have had nearly uninjured careers all the way to 40 since it's countless according to you. Obviously you don't need to because we all know that 27 players out of 3,000 have made it to 40 and only a subset of them would meet your criteria, so your post is hyperbolic.

Again, I am approaching this from a "most likely" perspective while you guys are approaching it from the "anything can happen" perspective. You aren't arguing against me. You are arguing against statistical improbability. For that reason, I am not offended at all, just like I'm not offended when people play the lottery. I'm just a bit surprised, that's all.

I would give LeBron a 2 year max contract. After 2 years, based on a ton of data, he will not be worth it. Giving a 4 year max deal to a 34 year old means you are going the Brooklyn Nets route and putting all your chips on the table for a 2 year window. It may not be a terrible deal, but I don't personally think that it's a good idea to risk a fantastic young core on a Hail Mary. I don't think LeBron on the Sixers gets them a title and they could sign a free agent like Kahwi in 2019 that better fits their timeline.

Your comparison to BKN is hyperbole. Signing Lebron is not equivalent to a Haily Mary. Again, hyperbole.

I thought I already brought the point up that Lebron is not a player that fits along a trendline. No regression analysis in the world will be a good predictor for a player that is unlike the players that preceded him. While it is often useful to look at the past as a useful predictor, I believe that in this instance, it is not very relevant. The players that you mentioned were not as devoted to their bodies. You could have made the same argument for Tom Brady starting when he was 33.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #193 on: April 03, 2018, 05:09:24 PM »

Offline Moranis

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so now we are extending it to 40 (even though by your own count Lebron would be 38).  And why would they need an entire career uninjured.  A freak injury that a player recovers from, isn't any where near the same type of thing you are talking about. 

But yeah, there are countless players that played into their late 30's uninjured.  Havlicek, for example, played 34 mpg in all 82 games when he was 37 and then retired.  Chamberlain at age 36, played 43 mpg in all 82 games and then retired (he led the league in rebounding that final year).  He had the season where he played in just 12 games, but otherwise was mostly a machine. 
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Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #194 on: April 03, 2018, 05:14:17 PM »

Offline Erik

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Al Horford is averaging 12.8/7.4/4.8 he is on a max contract and he signed that contract coming off a season where he averaged 17.1/8.2/3.6.  Michael Conley signed the largest contract in NBA history coming off a season where he averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists.  Before signing that contract his career bests were 17.2 and 6.5 so it wasn't like that was a fluke down year.  Marc Gasol signed a max contract coming off a season of 17.4/7.8/3.8. 

Those aren't abnormal.  In fact, they are pretty typical.  It appears you have no concept of what players on max contracts actually perform like. 

And you can't predict wear and tear injuries because the reality is not everyone gets them.  Kareem played 74 games his final season at the age of 41.  He played 80 games when he was 40.  78 games when he was 39.  Malone's last season was the only time he played less than 80 games in his career.  Stockton played 82 games at the age of 40 (28 mpg).  He had 1 season in his career where he missed more than 4 games.  Jason Kidd played 76 games at the age of 39.  He missed 18 games his 2nd to last year at age 38, but from 32 to 37 never missed more than 2 games in a season.

There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all.

Sure the "going rate" for max players is inflated, but one thing to note is that older players cannot play defense well due to decrease in lateral quickness (well all quickness, really). The 3 players you cited are all above average defenders which is a significant component of their value. Marc Gasol was actually a DPOY. So you can't say 37 year old Shaq who was hobbling around and couldn't make it back on defense deserved a max deal because he posted the same numbers as 29 year old Marc Gasol.

Anyways that was off topic. Let's get back to the real point:

"There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all. "

Are there? I'll make it even easier for you. They don't even have to be great. Name 150 players, period of any skill level and any kind of mileage (Scalabrine included). 3,000 people have played in the NBA over the last 50 years. Show me that 5% of them have had nearly uninjured careers all the way to 40 since it's countless according to you. Obviously you don't need to because we all know that 27 players out of 3,000 have made it to 40 and only a subset of them would meet your criteria, so your post is hyperbolic.

Again, I am approaching this from a "most likely" perspective while you guys are approaching it from the "anything can happen" perspective. You aren't arguing against me. You are arguing against statistical improbability. For that reason, I am not offended at all, just like I'm not offended when people play the lottery. I'm just a bit surprised, that's all.

I would give LeBron a 2 year max contract. After 2 years, based on a ton of data, he will not be worth it. Giving a 4 year max deal to a 34 year old means you are going the Brooklyn Nets route and putting all your chips on the table for a 2 year window. It may not be a terrible deal, but I don't personally think that it's a good idea to risk a fantastic young core on a Hail Mary. I don't think LeBron on the Sixers gets them a title and they could sign a free agent like Kahwi in 2019 that better fits their timeline.

Your comparison to BKN is hyperbole. Signing Lebron is not equivalent to a Haily Mary. Again, hyperbole.

I thought I already brought the point up that Lebron is not a player that fits along a trendline. No regression analysis in the world will be a good predictor for a player that is unlike the players that preceded him. While it is often useful to look at the past as a useful predictor, I believe that in this instance, it is not very relevant. The players that you mentioned were not as devoted to their bodies. You could have made the same argument for Tom Brady starting when he was 33.

It's actually not hyperbole. If the player is max worthy at ages 34 and 35 but not max worthy at 36 and 37 (if even still playing meaningful minutes), you're sacrificing a lot of salary on the back-end for 2 shots at a title roughly around the time that the Sixers would be ready to begin to compete for a title (where the Celtics are now). It's a waste of 2 years of LeBron and a waste of 2 years of the Sixers' title chances. It's not a good fit at all. Why not just try to lure more of a sure thing like Anthony Davis or Kahwi Leonard?

"I thought I already brought the point up that Lebron is not a player that fits along a trendline.
 No regression analysis in the world will be a good predictor for a player that is unlike the players that preceded him. While it is often useful to look at the past as a useful predictor, I believe that in this instance, it is not very relevant."

In what sense? He's a human being, isn't he? You can tell by his interviews, play style, and workout routine that he will be a statistical outlier? While we're at it, could you tell me the price of Bitcoin in 2022, Noah?

"The players that you mentioned were not as devoted to their bodies."

And you know this how? Are you their doctor?

"You could have made the same argument for Tom Brady starting when he was 33."

Different sport, statistical outlier. Again, it's not that he CAN'T. It's just very unlikely.

Sorry, but your entire post is devoid of a cogent argument.


« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 05:36:03 PM by Erik »