Four Factors at about the 1/4 Mark

[PhoSita]

I usually make this post after 20 games, but this year the season is shorter so 1/4 of the season is 18 games.  Due to postponements the Celts have only played 17 games, but I figure that after the 18th game (against the Lakers this weekend), nobody will want to talk about anything but whatever the narrative is following that game.


A reminder about the Four Factors

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html


Basically it's a way of thinking of the key things a team has to do at both ends to win games.  Shoot the ball, maximize possessions, rebound the ball, and generate easy attempts (e.g. free throws) while limiting easy attempts for the opponent.

I find this to be a helpful way to re-orient my impressions of the team by challenging my eye-test instinct against which things the stats say the team is doing well and not so well.


This is how the Celtics are doing in these categories so far this year:

ORtg - 109.9 (8th)
DRtg - 107.9 (16th)

Pace - 16th

Turnovers
TO / possession - 14.6% (23rd)
Opponent TO/possession - 15.1% (6th)

Rebounding
Off. Reb% - 25.3% (5th)
Def. Reb% - 77.8% (14th)

Shooting
EFG% - 54.2% (10th)
Opponent EFG% - 53.7% (17th)
3-point Rate - 36.2% (22nd)
Opponent 3-point Rate - 37.3% (9th)
Fastbreak PPG - 13.8 (15th)
Opponent Fastbreak PPG - 14.2 (25th)
Paint PPG - 46.8 (12th)
Opponent Paint PPG - 47.3 (18th)

Free Throws
FTA per FGA - 0.235 (23rd)
Oppenent FTA per FGA - 0.277 (24th)


Summary

The Celtics are a very good, not great offensive team.  They are an average-ish defensive team. 

The Celtics play at an average pace.

They are very good at forcing turnovers.  They pressure the opponent on the offensive glass. 

The Celtics are a decent defensive rebounding team.  They're a pretty good shooting team overall, and their opponents are hitting an average percentage of their shots.  The Celts are pretty good at limiting opponents' three point attempts, and allow their opponents an average amount of points inside.  For their own part, the Celtics score a decent amount inside.

The Celtics are giving up too many turnovers, which undermines the advantage they get from forcing turnovers.  Because they give up so many turnovers, the opponent is getting a lot of fast break points.  They don't generate very many free throws (a long-running trend for this team), and they allow too many opponent free throws (also a long running trend). 


Outlook

Obviously a key caveat to all of this is that the Celts haven't had their main team together for hardly any minutes so far this season.  I think there's reason to think that they will trend toward being an elite offense (top 3-5) while moving toward top 10-12 on defense.

However, it is troubling that the free throw rate remains such an issue despite Tatum and Brown both emerging as very good volume scoring options. 

Getting Pritchard back and Kemba continuing to work back into form should help limit turnovers, which will in turn improve the defensive numbers.  I'm not as optimistic that we can expect a lot of improvement with respect to free throws, since the Celtics have almost always been bad at generating free throws except for the one season that IT was averaging nearly 30 points a game.

Is elite offense and a borderline top 10 defense good enough to go far in the post-season?  Hard to say.  Last year the Celtics were top 5 on both ends.  The good news is that there aren't any teams in the East that are elite on both ends. 

So far this season, only the Lakers and Jazz are top 5 on offense and defense.  However, the Bucks are the top offense and 10th on defense, and may improve defensively as the season goes along.  The Sixers are 12th on offense and 5th on defense.  That seems about right for them.  Brooklyn is 3rd on offense but tied for 20th on defense. 

It's hard to take Brooklyn seriously as a contender as long as their defense is that bad.  Then again, LeBron carried some putrid defensive teams to the Finals, so maybe Durant and Harden can do the same.

[Phantom255x]

Got to be honest, my biggest issue is our defense. I get it, we haven't been fully healthy for some time (due to COVID + injuries) and yeah there's some flaws in our offense too.

But since the start of January 1st, we've played 11 games. Only in 1 game during that span have we held a team to less than 103 points. I think 5 of those games, we allowed 110+. That to me is a problem. It also just feels like we're giving up 120+ points way too often this season, which is also a problem.

Our offense is good and can get better, but we just aren't a team built to outscore other elite teams. It's a bit weird seeing a Brad Stevens team struggle on that end, but it's happening. I'm hopeful with more time together to gel and build chemistry, they can get better on that end.

But if it doesn't, this team might not even make it to the 2nd round. I mean, there's a chance they can end as a 4 or 5 seed and play a team like Brooklyn or Milwaukee 1st round.

[PhoSita]

Got to be honest, my biggest issue is our defense. I get it, we haven't been fully healthy for some time (due to COVID + injuries) and yeah there's some flaws in our offense too.

But since the start of January 1st, we've played 11 games. Only in 1 game during that span have we held a team to less than 103 points. I think 5 of those games, we allowed 110+. That to me is a problem. It also just feels like we're giving up 120+ points way too often this season, which is also a problem.

Our offense is good and can get better, but we just aren't a team built to outscore other elite teams. It's a bit weird seeing a Brad Stevens team struggle on that end, but it's happening. I'm hopeful with more time together to gel and build chemistry, they can get better on that end.

But if it doesn't, this team might not even make it to the 2nd round. I mean, there's a chance they can end as a 4 or 5 seed and play a team like Brooklyn or Milwaukee 1st round.

Biggest problem for our defense is giving the opponent lots of easy looks in the form of fastbreak points and free throws.

You can give as much effort as you want on closeouts and rotations, but if you are coughing the ball up and fouling frequently, the opponent is going to score a lot of points.

Kemba being back should help with the turnovers, though, since we shouldn't be relying as much on lesser ballhandlers to do playmaking. 

As for the free throws, I'm not sure what can be done there.  Coordinate a sit-down meeting between Daniel Theis and all of the referees to try to reconcile whatever personal problems are going on there?  (I assume Theis must have insulted their families or something)

[Jiri Welsch]

I’m holding on to your “the full squad hasn’t been together yet” point and remaining optimistic.

This is a great post, btw. TP and I’ll give you more when allowed.

[footey]

TP PhoSita, great analysis, and sobering.