Which Bigs Do You Like in this Draft?

[Silky]

We have a hole at PF, and it would be best if got a Day 1 contributor at that position.  Accordingly, I’m all for Brandon Clarke, I don’t care if he’s short and has stumpy arms relative to NBA bigs.  He can get the job done.

we are good at PF, Center is bad.
we can move Horford there and resign morris.

Center is far worse.

We have three centers on the roster, including a high-ceiling defensive prospect.  We have a part-time PF (Horford) and Yabusele.  Morris is probably not coming back for a variety of reasons.  Clarke should be the pick if he’s on the board.  Picks 20 and 22 can then be boom or bust selections.

Horford is a PF not a center, he performs and has performed better over the last few seasons everytime he was placed into the lineup as the PF as opposed to the center.

[saltlover]

We have a hole at PF, and it would be best if got a Day 1 contributor at that position.  Accordingly, I’m all for Brandon Clarke, I don’t care if he’s short and has stumpy arms relative to NBA bigs.  He can get the job done.

we are good at PF, Center is bad.
we can move Horford there and resign morris.

Center is far worse.

I doubt MMorris re-signs so we are not set at PF. Unless you think Semi or Yabu can fill that slot. If so, we are in trouble.

Why not?

Morris really likes Boston, if they offer him the money, he will stay. If not there are many others available at MLE level.

Morris wants to play with his brother.  We’re not taking both (no minutes for Kieff — that’s why he didn’t sign for the playoff stretch).  JaMychael Green is my MLE-level PF target, with or without Brandon Clarke.

[RodyTur10]

We have a hole at PF, and it would be best if got a Day 1 contributor at that position.  Accordingly, I’m all for Brandon Clarke, I don’t care if he’s short and has stumpy arms relative to NBA bigs.  He can get the job done.

we are good at PF, Center is bad.
we can move Horford there and resign morris.

Center is far worse.

We have three centers on the roster, including a high-ceiling defensive prospect.  We have a part-time PF (Horford) and Yabusele.  Morris is probably not coming back for a variety of reasons.  Clarke should be the pick if he’s on the board.  Picks 20 and 22 can then be boom or bust selections.

Horford is a PF not a center, he performs and has performed better over the last few seasons everytime he was placed into the lineup as the PF as opposed to the center.

Agree with this as well. We have to stop playing with frontcourts like Morris/Horford or Hayward/Horford. Get someone to do the dirty work for Horford, when Baynes isn't available. Our interior defense last season was way worse when Horford got moved to the center spot.

[Fafnir]

Horford is far better at C than PF at this point in his career. Offensively he breaks the defense much more at the C position and his defensive responsibilities aren't that much different.

What the C's need is more quality help next to him on the boards and defensively, whichever position that comes at. Baynes has been the best option on the team, but he injury issues and shaky offense mean the team needs to find an alternate. Theis was looking good till his knee injury, this year he didn't work out well at all.

[Silky]

Horford is far better at C than PF at this point in his career. Offensively he breaks the defense much more at the C position and his defensive responsibilities aren't that much different.

What the C's need is more quality help next to him on the boards and defensively, whichever position that comes at. Baynes has been the best option on the team, but he injury issues and shaky offense mean the team needs to find an alternate. Theis was looking good till his knee injury, this year he didn't work out well at all.

No statistics point to Horford being better at center than PF.

None.

Horford, on a per 48 basis, as a PF over a center
has a much higher eFG%
More FTAs
More assists
fewer turnovers
More blocks
more points
a per of over 30

On a production basis horford essential broke even as a center (per) but was a plus 14 as a pf

http://www.82games.com/1819/18BOS16.HTM

[Fafnir]

82games position estimates oh my  . Did you even look at anything other than the by position PER? Compared opposing position net PER/Production has nothing to do with basketball.

Also that sample size! Love to extrapolate things based on 155 minutes compared to 1745 minutes.

[saltlover]

Horford is far better at C than PF at this point in his career. Offensively he breaks the defense much more at the C position and his defensive responsibilities aren't that much different.

What the C's need is more quality help next to him on the boards and defensively, whichever position that comes at. Baynes has been the best option on the team, but he injury issues and shaky offense mean the team needs to find an alternate. Theis was looking good till his knee injury, this year he didn't work out well at all.

No statistics point to Horford being better at center than PF.

None.

Horford, on a per 48 basis, as a PF over a center
has a much higher eFG%
More FTAs
More assists
fewer turnovers
More blocks
more points
a per of over 30

On a production basis horford essential broke even as a center (per) but was a plus 14 as a pf

http://www.82games.com/1819/18BOS16.HTM

While I completely disagree with you about Horford, who has been primarily a center since he played with Josh Smith in Atlanta (so his entire career, pretty much), I’ll meet you in the middle with this quote from Brandon Clarke’s draft profile:

Just on defense alone, Clarke will probably end up as a lottery pick. He is arguably the best defender in the entire draft, and he is one of the most efficient offensive players this season not named Zion Williamson. Clarke opened eyes at the combine, but for those of us who have watched college basketball all season, his raw numbers are no surprise.

Clarke’s overall skill set is a prototypical NBA center, yet he only stands at 6’8. Defensively, it will be a question if his limited height and wingspan will be an impediment into guarding larger centers. Otherwise, Clarke will need to be paired with a taller human to assist on the defensive end, and that taller human will need to have range to help spread the floor.

Perfect fit with Al.

[Fafnir]

Again the issue is overall front court help, Baynes was the only other playoff rotation caliber big man we had. Al was on an island this past year because of Theis turning into a pumpkin, and Baynes was hurt most of the year!

[Silky]

82games position estimates oh my  . Did you even look at anything other than the by position PER?

Love to extrapolate things based on 155 minutes compared to 1745 minutes.

Yeah I looked at it all.

And I need something to support what I see with my eyes, there are not alot of sites that track minutes by position and build stats from off of that.

This site does.

And Horford HAD to play that many minutes at Center this season, cause of need. With Baynes injured so much there was no other choice. There was alot more minuts the previous season when baynes was able to play more.

And Guess what, front court defense was better and team won more games with Al at the PF spot.

[Fafnir]

82games position estimates oh my  . Did you even look at anything other than the by position PER?

Love to extrapolate things based on 155 minutes compared to 1745 minutes.

And I need something to support what I see with my eyes, there are not alot of sites that track minutes by position and build stats from off of that.

I mean if you just want confirmation bias for your opinion, sure?

Lineup data isn't hard to find its on a lot sites, you just have to dig. Baynes/Horford was one of our best two man lineups due to a late season surge that led Brad to run with it. So I'm not surprised that 82games has such a skew.

FWIW, Al at C is never going to out PER the likes of Embiid or Rudy Gobert. But what does happen is he breaks their entire defensive scheme and opens up everything for the team. Al's a center, and one who needs help especially as he ages.

[nickagneta]

82games position estimates oh my  . Did you even look at anything other than the by position PER?

Love to extrapolate things based on 155 minutes compared to 1745 minutes.

Yeah I looked at it all.

And I need something to support what I see with my eyes, there are not alot of sites that track minutes by position and build stats from off of that.

This site does.

And Horford HAD to play that many minutes at Center this season, cause of need. With Baynes injured so much there was no other choice. There was alot more minuts the previous season when baynes was able to play more.

And Guess what, front court defense was better and team won more games with Al at the PF spot.

I think Al Horford is as good at PF as at center so to me it doesn't matter where he plays, he is a massive plus either way. But I did want to address above. It's statistically impossible for Al to have won more game at PF last year.

basketball_reference.com has Al playing just 8% of his time at PF last year, which correlates with 82games.com minute numbers. 8% of 82 games is 7 games. If Boston won all 7 games then they won only 42 games with Horford at center. So the statement is false.

Now if you want to claim Horford's winning percentage was better when playing center, well, good luck proving that as he played both positions in a ton of games last year and in earlier years so that is going to be very difficult to prove and probably would require a ton of research, unless NBA.com has those stats. I did a quick look and couldn't find anything on it.

[Evantime34]

Horford is far better at C than PF at this point in his career. Offensively he breaks the defense much more at the C position and his defensive responsibilities aren't that much different.

What the C's need is more quality help next to him on the boards and defensively, whichever position that comes at. Baynes has been the best option on the team, but he injury issues and shaky offense mean the team needs to find an alternate. Theis was looking good till his knee injury, this year he didn't work out well at all.

No statistics point to Horford being better at center than PF.

None.

Horford, on a per 48 basis, as a PF over a center
has a much higher eFG%
More FTAs
More assists
fewer turnovers
More blocks
more points
a per of over 30

On a production basis horford essential broke even as a center (per) but was a plus 14 as a pf

http://www.82games.com/1819/18BOS16.HTM

While I completely disagree with you about Horford, who has been primarily a center since he played with Josh Smith in Atlanta (so his entire career, pretty much), I’ll meet you in the middle with this quote from Brandon Clarke’s draft profile:

Just on defense alone, Clarke will probably end up as a lottery pick. He is arguably the best defender in the entire draft, and he is one of the most efficient offensive players this season not named Zion Williamson. Clarke opened eyes at the combine, but for those of us who have watched college basketball all season, his raw numbers are no surprise.

Clarke’s overall skill set is a prototypical NBA center, yet he only stands at 6’8. Defensively, it will be a question if his limited height and wingspan will be an impediment into guarding larger centers. Otherwise, Clarke will need to be paired with a taller human to assist on the defensive end, and that taller human will need to have range to help spread the floor.

Perfect fit with Al.

I agree that he's the perfect fit with Al! I define positions by who you defend though, not what you do on offense, since most offensive players have the same perimeter role now.

Horford would defend 5's on defense and Clarke would defend 4's. While on offense Horford would be an offensive creator and 3 point shooter (essentially a point forward, while Clarke would be a great roll man and score off a ton of cuts.

[footey]

Lineups and positions are very fluid, seems pointless to debate whether or not Al Horford is better as a 4 or a 5. We can all agree I think that we want him on the floor as much as possible.

Seems like in the best world, we would want to find someone who can defend centers and power forwards, and also rebound at a high rate. Who is the best candidate out of this draft? Does he even exist?

I like Jontay Porter a lot, because he reminds me of Al Horford. But I see him as someone who would back up Al until Al got older, and could eventually replace him. He likely is available in the 2nd round, so maybe we turn one of our 20/22 picks plus our 53rd pick for an early 2nd round round pick (to grab JP) and a lottery protected future first round pick. 

We use our 14th pick to take Clarke or Rui Hachimura (who has been climbing the draft boards and may not be available) and the other 20/22 pick to either swing for fences (Bol), high energy bench scorer (Edwards) or Grant Williams/Kabengele/Bazley/Someone Similar.

[Evantime34]

82games position estimates oh my  . Did you even look at anything other than the by position PER?

Love to extrapolate things based on 155 minutes compared to 1745 minutes.

Yeah I looked at it all.

And I need something to support what I see with my eyes, there are not alot of sites that track minutes by position and build stats from off of that.

This site does.

And Horford HAD to play that many minutes at Center this season, cause of need. With Baynes injured so much there was no other choice. There was alot more minuts the previous season when baynes was able to play more.

And Guess what, front court defense was better and team won more games with Al at the PF spot.

I think Al Horford is as good at PF as at center so to me it doesn't matter where he plays, he is a massive plus either way. But I did want to address above. It's statistically impossible for Al to have won more game at PF last year.

basketball_reference.com has Al playing just 8% of his time at PF last year, which correlates with 82games.com minute numbers. 8% of 82 games is 7 games. If Boston won all 7 games then they won only 42 games with Horford at center. So the statement is false.

Now if you want to claim Horford's winning percentage was better when playing center, well, good luck proving that as he played both positions in a ton of games last year and in earlier years so that is going to be very difficult to prove and probably would require a ton of research, unless NBA.com has those stats. I did a quick look and couldn't find anything on it.

Whether Al plays better at PF or C is debatable, but it also is probably irrelevant. The Celtics best scorers are 3 wings, and all 3 need to play together for the team to succeed at it's highest level. Al Horford benefits the team best at the 5 because he can space the floor an run pick and rolls/dribble hand offs with our wings. Playing him with the 3 wings is best for the team and that's why he will play the 5.

[Birdman]

Danny will draft 3 guards