2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver

[RPGenerate]

Made some big lineup changes, please don't hesitate to give advice!

1. Payton/Kyrie dual point guard lineup
-I'm promoted Kyrie to my starting lineup, and I think this change will be great for this matchup. Both the Glove and Kyrie are fantastic ballhandlers that can constantly attack defenses. Mid-30s Reggie Miller will be forced to guard one of these scoring savants, and that won't be pretty. My main goal with this move is to force Utah into playing some wacky lineups, like playing Smart for an extended period of time. Having two ball handlers both able to play pick-and-rolls puts a bunch of pressure on Shaq to move in space, which is probably his weakest aspect on D.

2. Small Ball Melo
-I'm less sure on this change, but what the heck! I've always thought that Melo's offensive game was better suited to the 4. He is in a constant mismatch, where he can attack big men with reckless abandon. Big Al may be a good defender, but having to guard Melo for an extended period of time is going to get tiring. Once again, more spacing the better. If I have any chance of beating a team led by Shaq, I'll need to be making him work constantly.

[Moranis]

I see Utah winning this series easily.  I absolutely hate Duncan being used out of position.  I mean if you are going to play Duncan at center, I think you have to choose a season that Duncan actually played center, not 2001-2002 when Robinson started 78 games and was still playing 30 mpg for a Spurs (according to bball-ref, Duncan played 81% of his minutes at PF that season).  So that is a huge problem (it is also why I hated the Draymond Green pick, Duncan was always at his best at PF).  I also think the fitter PF version of Duncan would absolutely get brutalized by Shaq.  I don't think there is anyway that Duncan can defend Shaq, none at all.  I would expect Shaq to average 30+ points and grab 15+ boards in this series on his super crazy efficiency.  I mean the 01-02 Spurs got crushed by Shaq's Lakers in 5 games in the WCS and Robinson missed 2 games and in one of them Duncan was awful offensively and that was a lesser version of Shaq.  Shaq would just wear Duncan down causing his efficiency to suffer more and more.  And it isn't like Cousins or Big Z fix that deficiency.  Denver needed to add a huge defensive center so that Duncan could still play a lot of minutes at PF.

[action781]

So as I was thinking about suggesting Utah play Peja at PF instead of Al Horford because Draymond Green is not a big scorer and would not be able to exploit Peja. Utah could get another more dynamic offensive player on the floor like Jaylen Brown. Spread out the court more for Shaq.

Then just as I was considering that RPGenerate sent me a PM about Melo at the PF and whether that would be beneficial or not. At the same I was just thinking it is a similar situation on the other side too. Al Horford not a big scorer. Denver could go small with Melo at PF also. Horford has some post game but that paint is pretty clogged up with Shaq in there so hard for Al to do much damage to Melo while Melo would get to play in a more spaced out offense to attack off the bounce. Same idea.

Then I figured both teams would just matchup against one another if the other went small. In both teams interest to do so. So what would those lineups look like?

G - Payton vs Kidd
G - Rip / Kyrie vs Reggie
F - Rip / Raja Bell / Danny Green / Covington vs Jaylen
F - Melo vs Peja
C - Duncan vs Shaq


First impression for Denver is that their bench wings are more 3+D guys than offensive creators so their offense won't gain much here. I believe Utah gains more because Jaylen is a legit scorer / shooter.

Second idea is whether one of those 3+D guys or Rip should defend Peja and take him out of the series by chasing him all over the place and allowing Melo to defend Jaylen instead. I believe that would work well.

Rick Fox took Peja out of the series on many occasions when Lakers played the Kings. Trenton Hassell did similarly when T-Wolves beat Kings in 2004. Popovich also did the same against an older Peja in 2008 when the Spurs came back from 0-2 down to winning 4-3 against the Hornets when Bruce Bowen was switched onto Peja instead of CP3 and forced New Orleans to play 2-on-5 (CP3, David West) to the rest of the way by robbing New Orleans of it's 3rd scorer.

Third thought was about the small Kyrie & Payton backcourt vs Reggie Miller. That Reggie would have to come out of the game in favour of Marcus Smart to stop from getting lit up. In this extra small lineup, Reggie could switch onto the SF (Rip or 3+D guy) and stay on the floor with Jaylen defending Payton or Kyrie.

Fourth thought is Steve Francis could have a role in this series if Kyrie were to start. Another offensive creator to try and attack Reggie Miller's defense.

Denver could go with Glenn Robinson at SF. I myself am not a Glenn Robinson fan. I consider him to be a fairly selfish offensive player and a bad defender. A player who doesn't really help teams at this level. Also too many chiefs (shot-takers) and not enough indians (off ball players) at that point.


Final thoughts. Denver staying big in the backcourt while small at forward gives Utah a clear advantage in the small ball lineups. Denver have to get Kyrie on the floor to stay competitive with Utah's small ball efforts.

G - Payton vs Kidd
G - Kyrie vs Jaylen
F - Rip / Danny Green vs Reggie
F - Melo vs Peja
C - Duncan vs Shaq

I am not sure either team gets an advantage by going small because the other team mirrors them so much in certain matchups - Reggie vs Rip and Draymond vs Horford. The seem to swapping out similar pieces and matching up comfortably. Just differently.

It would give Shaq a lot more ground to cover on defense. Having to defend all that space without Horford around to help him.

Utah do have a lack of ball-handling outside of Kidd in such a lineup whereas Denver's attack is multi-dimensional (Kyrie, Payton, Melo) and Kidd was not a huge penetrator (dribble drive threat).

But I think that is more about going small in the backcourt. Not necessarily small at forward. The same is true when keeping Draymond and Horford on the floor.


Anyway, my wandering thoughts about small ball lineups ...

I love when my mind goes down paths like these and I appreciate you getting it all down in words, Who.  TP.  I'll ideally stick with my starting 5 as I love how they complement eachother.    I'd only make adjustments if Game 1 proved the absolute necessity for it.

In the case that I needed to adjust to a Payton - Rip - 3&D guy - Carmelo - Duncan lineup, I would actually keep Jaylen on my bench (love that 6th man energy he brings) and start Mashburn instead.  Put Peja on the 3&D guy and put Mashburn on Carmelo.  Or PJ Tucker is a nice complementary 5th starter in spots if really needed.

In the case that Denver goes with a Payton - Kyrie - Rip - Carmelo - Duncan lineup, I might make some changes at SF/PF if needed but I'll point out that at the guard positions my plan would be to put Kidd on Kyrie and Reggie on Payton.  If Denver wants to look to Gary Payton for a bunch of usage, I think my team's offense is going to best that.

[Somebody]

Duncan would've been a centre on any team without David Robinson. I disagree with the belief that Shaq would ravage 2002 Duncan, the 2002 playoffs had Duncan going toe to toe with Shaq (Robinson was injured for the first two games and played sporadically in the next three) and putting up a monster series.

[RPGenerate]

I see Utah winning this series easily.  I absolutely hate Duncan being used out of position.  I mean if you are going to play Duncan at center, I think you have to choose a season that Duncan actually played center, not 2001-2002 when Robinson started 78 games and was still playing 30 mpg for a Spurs (according to bball-ref, Duncan played 81% of his minutes at PF that season).  So that is a huge problem (it is also why I hated the Draymond Green pick, Duncan was always at his best at PF).  I also think the fitter PF version of Duncan would absolutely get brutalized by Shaq.  I don't think there is anyway that Duncan can defend Shaq, none at all.  I would expect Shaq to average 30+ points and grab 15+ boards in this series on his super crazy efficiency.  I mean the 01-02 Spurs got crushed by Shaq's Lakers in 5 games in the WCS and Robinson missed 2 games and in one of them Duncan was awful offensively and that was a lesser version of Shaq.  Shaq would just wear Duncan down causing his efficiency to suffer more and more.  And it isn't like Cousins or Big Z fix that deficiency.  Denver needed to add a huge defensive center so that Duncan could still play a lot of minutes at PF.

Like I said, the reason the Lakers had the upper hand was because of Kobe. Tim Duncan was a center who played both roles because of David Robinson.

1999 Western conference finals, Tim Duncan averages 29 and 11, outplaying Shaq's 24 and 13.

2001 Western conference finals, Shaq at 27 and 13 outplays Timmy D at 23 and 12

2002 Western conference semis, Tim had 29 and 17 (with no help) outplaying Shaq's 21 and 12

2003 Western conference semis, Tim had 28 and 12, (narrowly) outplaying Shaq's 25 and 14

2004 Western conference semis, Shaq had 23 and 15, (narrowly) outplaying Tim's 21 and 12

[action781]

Duncan would've been a centre on any team without David Robinson. I disagree with the belief that Shaq would ravage 2002 Duncan, the 2002 playoffs had Duncan going toe to toe with Shaq (Robinson was injured for the first two games and played sporadically in the next three) and putting up a monster series.

What about on a team with Rasho Nesterovic?  Or one with Nazr Mohammed?  Or one with Tiago Splitter?

Those first two guys were rostered at center alongside Duncan not because they were talented basketball players.  It was solely because Pops was desperate for somebody bigger than Duncan to defend Shaq.  It wasn't just a Pops thing, the entire NBA was doing it.  It's the reason why guys like Todd MacCollough had a job during those years.

If you think Shaq wouldn't ravage Duncan, then I don't think you remember prime Shaq very well.  This was Shaq's league.  NBA fans legitimately gave up caring about who won the titles from '00-'02 in the same way fans gave up after Durant joined GSW.

[action781]

I see Utah winning this series easily.  I absolutely hate Duncan being used out of position.  I mean if you are going to play Duncan at center, I think you have to choose a season that Duncan actually played center, not 2001-2002 when Robinson started 78 games and was still playing 30 mpg for a Spurs (according to bball-ref, Duncan played 81% of his minutes at PF that season).  So that is a huge problem (it is also why I hated the Draymond Green pick, Duncan was always at his best at PF).  I also think the fitter PF version of Duncan would absolutely get brutalized by Shaq.  I don't think there is anyway that Duncan can defend Shaq, none at all.  I would expect Shaq to average 30+ points and grab 15+ boards in this series on his super crazy efficiency.  I mean the 01-02 Spurs got crushed by Shaq's Lakers in 5 games in the WCS and Robinson missed 2 games and in one of them Duncan was awful offensively and that was a lesser version of Shaq.  Shaq would just wear Duncan down causing his efficiency to suffer more and more.  And it isn't like Cousins or Big Z fix that deficiency.  Denver needed to add a huge defensive center so that Duncan could still play a lot of minutes at PF.

Like I said, the reason the Lakers had the upper hand was because of Kobe. Tim Duncan was a center who played both roles because of David Robinson.

1999 Western conference finals, Tim Duncan averages 29 and 11, outplaying Shaq's 24 and 13.

2001 Western conference finals, Shaq at 27 and 13 outplays Timmy D at 23 and 12

2002 Western conference semis, Tim had 29 and 17 (with no help) outplaying Shaq's 21 and 12

2003 Western conference semis, Tim had 28 and 12, (narrowly) outplaying Shaq's 25 and 14

2004 Western conference semis, Shaq had 23 and 15, (narrowly) outplaying Tim's 21 and 12

This is a narrow way of looking at comparing the two.  Especially when Shaq played alongside a high volume chucker that Duncan did not. 

But even with Kobe, Shaq still outscored Duncan in each of their playoff matchups from 2000-2002 (their seasons chosen in this game) and shot a higher FG% than Duncan in each of them too.  It also ignores that Shaq's team won the series 4-0 and 4-1.

I still think this is a way too narrow way of looking at it.  Too much nitty gritty for a casual poster to really dive into when they are largely going with their gut.

[RPGenerate]

I see Utah winning this series easily.  I absolutely hate Duncan being used out of position.  I mean if you are going to play Duncan at center, I think you have to choose a season that Duncan actually played center, not 2001-2002 when Robinson started 78 games and was still playing 30 mpg for a Spurs (according to bball-ref, Duncan played 81% of his minutes at PF that season).  So that is a huge problem (it is also why I hated the Draymond Green pick, Duncan was always at his best at PF).  I also think the fitter PF version of Duncan would absolutely get brutalized by Shaq.  I don't think there is anyway that Duncan can defend Shaq, none at all.  I would expect Shaq to average 30+ points and grab 15+ boards in this series on his super crazy efficiency.  I mean the 01-02 Spurs got crushed by Shaq's Lakers in 5 games in the WCS and Robinson missed 2 games and in one of them Duncan was awful offensively and that was a lesser version of Shaq.  Shaq would just wear Duncan down causing his efficiency to suffer more and more.  And it isn't like Cousins or Big Z fix that deficiency.  Denver needed to add a huge defensive center so that Duncan could still play a lot of minutes at PF.

Like I said, the reason the Lakers had the upper hand was because of Kobe. Tim Duncan was a center who played both roles because of David Robinson.

1999 Western conference finals, Tim Duncan averages 29 and 11, outplaying Shaq's 24 and 13.

2001 Western conference finals, Shaq at 27 and 13 outplays Timmy D at 23 and 12

2002 Western conference semis, Tim had 29 and 17 (with no help) outplaying Shaq's 21 and 12

2003 Western conference semis, Tim had 28 and 12, (narrowly) outplaying Shaq's 25 and 14

2004 Western conference semis, Shaq had 23 and 15, (narrowly) outplaying Tim's 21 and 12

This is a narrow way of looking at comparing the two.  Especially when Shaq played alongside a high volume chucker that Duncan did not. 

But even with Kobe, Shaq still outscored Duncan in each of their playoff matchups from 2000-2002 (their seasons chosen in this game) and shot a higher FG% than Duncan in each of them too.  It also ignores that Shaq's team won the series 4-0 and 4-1.

I still think this is a way too narrow way of looking at it.  Too much nitty gritty for a casual poster to really dive into when they are largely going with their gut.

Except he didn't in 2002...? And that high volumn chucker was the best Laker on the court in those matchups, which seems to be continually ignored. If Duncan had a guy that could average 33 PPG in a series, I think the shoe would definitely be on the other foot in terms of final outcome.

[Donoghus]

An intriguing matchup but I'm having a really tough time going against Utah & the combination of prime Kidd & Shaq here.   Two guys at their absolute peak working together.  Early 2000s Shaq really is the one of the most dominant individual stretches in NBA history.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I assumed they would play under modern rules and it was a pretty easy decision for me.

Denver
I don't think Hamilton is as good as people remember. He had moments with Detroit, but I think on any other team he would simply be an above average NBA player.

I also think you have to appreciate that Green's offense largely comes off of StephCurry in the high pick-and-roll. Without that threat of a shooter, Green is probably a negative on offense.

It's my opinion (regardless of stats) that the team Denver put forward would struggle tremendously with floor spacing in their starting lineup, which would limit some of Duncan's and Melo's effectiveness as post up players.

I love the Cousins and Kyrie bench for them. Robinson would help with some floor spacing too, but all in all I just don't think this team is well-constructed.

Utah
This is not my favorite team, but by default they are the better team. Shaq would be impossible to stop with an open floor and the shooting that Horford, Peja, and Miller provide. I think Kidd would get a lot of easy buckets for shooters and for Mashburn and Brown off the bench. I wish there was one more guy off the bench as a scorer, but I think the team construction is really good with this team.

Wow, Rip is getting underrated here. Hamilton was pivotal in the Piston's many playoff runs. Remove his out-of-prime years, and Rip is averaging over 20 pts a game. His playoffs scoring actually increased from his regular season, and let's not forget his amazing finals performance against the Fakers. 21 PPG, while outplaying his head-to-head matchup, holding him to 38% shooting. That player was none other than the great Kobe Bryant!

We disagree. And I don't think you could say that Hamilton held Kobe. The Pistons did. Billups and Prince defended him too. They always had Wallace and Wallace protecting the rim behind him. I never thought Hamilton was a good individual defender. He wasn't awful, but having four really good defenders around you makes you look a lot better.

I also really think his offensive output was empty calories at times.

[RPGenerate]

I assumed they would play under modern rules and it was a pretty easy decision for me.

Denver
I don't think Hamilton is as good as people remember. He had moments with Detroit, but I think on any other team he would simply be an above average NBA player.

I also think you have to appreciate that Green's offense largely comes off of StephCurry in the high pick-and-roll. Without that threat of a shooter, Green is probably a negative on offense.

It's my opinion (regardless of stats) that the team Denver put forward would struggle tremendously with floor spacing in their starting lineup, which would limit some of Duncan's and Melo's effectiveness as post up players.

I love the Cousins and Kyrie bench for them. Robinson would help with some floor spacing too, but all in all I just don't think this team is well-constructed.

Utah
This is not my favorite team, but by default they are the better team. Shaq would be impossible to stop with an open floor and the shooting that Horford, Peja, and Miller provide. I think Kidd would get a lot of easy buckets for shooters and for Mashburn and Brown off the bench. I wish there was one more guy off the bench as a scorer, but I think the team construction is really good with this team.

Wow, Rip is getting underrated here. Hamilton was pivotal in the Piston's many playoff runs. Remove his out-of-prime years, and Rip is averaging over 20 pts a game. His playoffs scoring actually increased from his regular season, and let's not forget his amazing finals performance against the Fakers. 21 PPG, while outplaying his head-to-head matchup, holding him to 38% shooting. That player was none other than the great Kobe Bryant!

We disagree. And I don't think you could say that Hamilton held Kobe. The Pistons did. Billups and Prince defended him too. They always had Wallace and Wallace protecting the rim behind him. I never thought Hamilton was a good individual defender. He wasn't awful, but having four really good defenders around you makes you look a lot better.

I also really think his offensive output was empty calories at times.

True, it was a team effort. However Rip's defense played a big part in being able to check Kobe. Agree to disagree, but I just don't understand how a guy that was the number one option on a team that was constantly making playoff runs, and was raising his game in the playoffs, can be considered to be empty calories.

[KGs Knee]

Duncan would've been a centre on any team without David Robinson. I disagree with the belief that Shaq would ravage 2002 Duncan, the 2002 playoffs had Duncan going toe to toe with Shaq (Robinson was injured for the first two games and played sporadically in the next three) and putting up a monster series.

What about on a team with Rasho Nesterovic?  Or one with Nazr Mohammed?  Or one with Tiago Splitter?

Those first two guys were rostered at center alongside Duncan not because they were talented basketball players.  It was solely because Pops was desperate for somebody bigger than Duncan to defend Shaq.  It wasn't just a Pops thing, the entire NBA was doing it.  It's the reason why guys like Todd MacCollough had a job during those years.

If you think Shaq wouldn't ravage Duncan, then I don't think you remember prime Shaq very well.  This was Shaq's league.  NBA fans legitimately gave up caring about who won the titles from '00-'02 in the same way fans gave up after Durant joined GSW.

Nazr Mohammed, that's the other scrub who's name I couldn't remember.

This post really hits the nail on the head as to how Duncan matched up with Shaq, in other words, he didn't.  Pop intentionally did everything he could, including playing guys that had no business being out there, just to keep Duncan from having to defend Shaq.

Putting Duncan one-on-one against peak Shaq for anything other than brief stretches is a recipe for disaster.  He couldn't handle Shaq's physicality.  It's kind of ludicrous to suggest he could.

[theswitch]

RP, I think you'd benefit from laying out your strategy. I'm not sure I've been able to follow it in this thread (or am clear on what your starting lineup is right now). Utah's is pretty straight-forward and articulated, so I'd consider following a similar path if you're able to.

[RPGenerate]

Duncan would've been a centre on any team without David Robinson. I disagree with the belief that Shaq would ravage 2002 Duncan, the 2002 playoffs had Duncan going toe to toe with Shaq (Robinson was injured for the first two games and played sporadically in the next three) and putting up a monster series.

What about on a team with Rasho Nesterovic?  Or one with Nazr Mohammed?  Or one with Tiago Splitter?

Those first two guys were rostered at center alongside Duncan not because they were talented basketball players.  It was solely because Pops was desperate for somebody bigger than Duncan to defend Shaq.  It wasn't just a Pops thing, the entire NBA was doing it.  It's the reason why guys like Todd MacCollough had a job during those years.

If you think Shaq wouldn't ravage Duncan, then I don't think you remember prime Shaq very well.  This was Shaq's league.  NBA fans legitimately gave up caring about who won the titles from '00-'02 in the same way fans gave up after Durant joined GSW.

Nazr Mohammed, that's the other scrub who's name I couldn't remember.

This post really hits the nail on the head as to how Duncan matched up with Shaq, in other words, he didn't.  Pop intentionally did everything he could, including playing guys that had no business being out there, just to keep Duncan from having to defend Shaq.

Putting Duncan one-on-one against peak Shaq for anything other than brief stretches is a recipe for disaster.  He couldn't handle Shaq's physicality.  It's kind of ludicrous to suggest he could.

It's even more ludicrous to ignore series (like 2002) where Duncan actually matched up with Shaq, and he got completely ragdolled off the c- Oh wait, that isn't what happened. David Robinson didn't play much due to injury, and Duncan had to deal with Shaq. Duncan totally outplayed Shaq, and Shaq was pretty abysmal for his high standards. Shaq got let off the hook by Kobe.

[RPGenerate]

RP, I think you'd benefit from laying out your strategy. I'm not sure I've been able to follow it in this thread (or am clear on what your starting lineup is right now). Utah's is pretty straight-forward and articulated, so I'd consider following a similar path if you're able to.

True. It's just for me to have any chance in the series, I need people to realize that Duncan can stand against Shaq. I lose right off the bat if I can't lol