2020 Historical Draft: WCF...#1 Utah vs #2 Denver

[action781]

I think for me this series might very well hinge on whether Duncan can actually limit Shaq. My foggy memory seems recall Pop doing everything he could to hide Duncan from having to defend Shaq during his peak. Makes me wonder if Boogie needs to be promoted into the starting lineup in place of Dray, moving Duncan over to PF.

To be fair they had Robinson as their centre. I think Duncan would do well against Shaq in this format - his 2002 and 2003 iterations had him ravaging frontcourts with an excellent combination of power and skill (FWIW he did well against prime Shaq in 2002).

I can't get the names Rasho Nesterovic and Tiago Splitter out of my head.  Even worse, I hear them in Steven A Smith's voice.

Ha!  When I typed Rasho Nesterovic in my post, I couldn't help but to say it in Stephen A Smith's obnoxious voice.

[action781]

True or false:  Assuming that Duncan defends Shaq, the biggest single mismatch in the two starting lineups is Carmelo vs. Peja

I think it depends on how you define biggest mismatch. 

If you're saying how much better one player is than his opposite, I think Peja and Carmelo are close.  Carmelo might have a slight edge, but I don't think 2004 Peja (#4 in MVP voting who led the Webber-less Kings to a 55-27 record) is that much below 2013 Carmelo (#3 in MVP voting who led the NYK to a 54-28 record).  They each won the first round of the playoffs and lost in the second round.  Their scoring stats that regular season:

Peja:  24.2ppg on 48.0% / 43.3% / 92.7% shooting (62.4 TS%)
Carmelo:  28.7ppg on 44.9% / 37.9% / 84.8% shooting (56.0% TS)

The beauty of Peja is that he's so efficient and doesn't require the ball in his hands to be effective.  I will have no issue if Peja scores less points than Carmelo in this series.  The more shots Carmelo takes, at his level of efficiency, is a plus for the Utah Jazz when you compare it to the offensive efficiency Utah will generate.  You could momentarily ignore Carmelo's poor 2013 postseason efficiency and go to the extremes in pretending Carmelo will have the most prolific scoring playoff series that he's ever had in his career* and it STILL wouldn't be very strong compared to what Utah will produce on offense. 

There's a reason why you and I both drafted players like Peja and Manu ahead of Carmelo.  Is Carmelo a more talented player than each of them and maybe even considered a "mismatch" in that sense?  Will he score more points than each of them?  Sure.  But Carmelo has been presented with those types of mismatches in 90% of the games he's played in his career and he has never shown an ability to attack it in a way that leads to consistently efficient and winning basketball.  Peja and Manu have both exceeded Carmelo in that area.

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*The nominees for those series would be:
2009 WCS:  30.0ppg on 49.1 FG%
2010 WC1:  30.7ppg on 46.4 FG%

Carmelo's actual 2013 playoff stats:  28.8ppg on 40.6 FG%

[Who]

I don't think the Melo vs Peja matchup is as clear as some others do.

(a) Peja came into the league as a bad defender but he does not get the credit he deserves for improving his defense and becoming a solid defender at his peak. Also, Peja was a legit 6-9/6-10.

(b) Melo in 2010 (?) had a huge mismatch at SF against the Utah Jazz. They were using a physically strong 6-4 SG in Wes Matthews and a physically weak 6-5 SG in CJ Miles against him. Melo played well in the series but he was unable to punish those players to the degree he should have been able to / needed to be able to and his team lost the series to an inferior team.

To me, Melo's main strength as a scorer was how reliable and dependable he was across different situations. He could score on tougher defenses. But he did not up his game to the level of some other great scorers against lesser defenses - largely because of his so-so shot selection (as seen against Utah when he bailed out those smaller SG defenders time and time again with long pull up Js).

(c) Melo will have huge difficulty defending Peja Stojakovic. Melo's main strength on defense is using his physical size to shrink space 18 feet and in. He struggles on perimeter defense. He struggles to chase shooters through screens. He gets caught ball-watching and loses his man (shooters) on team defense. These are all the bread and butter plays of Peja Stojakovic.

(d) Denver will lose their offensive integrity to take advantage of Melo against Peja. To get Melo clearouts, isolations and post ups - the Nuggets will have to move away from their main offense and go more to one-on-one plays. Thus making it harder for Melo's teammates to influence the offense in those situations.

In contrast, Peja will get all his opportunities while the Jazz maintain their normal offense. His catch and shoots running off of screens is their main offense.

(e) Peja's main problem offensively has been smaller quicker defenders that can chase him through screens. Rip Hamilton is actually ideal for this and could lock Peja up. Melo, on the other hand, is lousy at this and gives Peja a matchup that he can exploit.

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I would not be surprised at all to see Peja win that matchup.

At worst, I view it as neutral.

I do not see it as an advantage for Denver.

[Who]

Gary Payton is The Glove — arguably the best point guard defender in this game.  Defense can only go so far though.  In the 4 games that Kidd and Payton went H2H in Payton’s 2000 season, Kidd averaged 16.8 points (42.3% fg) and 11.8 assists with only 2 turnovers.  I don’t deny that Payton really is arguably the best point guard defender in this game.   

Kidd is the better defender vs Payton.

This isn't early to mid-90s Payton. Not even late 90s Payton. This 2000 Payton. He was slowing down by then.

Also, Payton was struggling with the rule changes that stopped him arm barring ball-handlers (post players were only allowed to arm bar players from then on) in 2000. Payton would struggle more in this league with the even more aggressive no hand checking laws of today.

Kidd is the clear #1 defensive PG in this league.

I had Wade #2. I had Jrue Holiday #3 until he was sent back to the bench. Then Payton, Billups, CP3 close together in the next tier.

I firmly believe Payton's defensive reputation of the mid-90s is inflating folks opinions of his defense in 2000 & also well he'd do under today's defensive rules.

[Who]

So I have conflicting thoughts on Shaq and Duncan

(1) Shaq had the single most dominant individual season of any player in the 21st century

(2) Duncan is the ultimate team player and he better adapts to today's rules than Shaq because of his superior defensive mobility, intelligence and effort (although Shaq's effort was certainly high that 2000 season).

(3) I felt Shaq could be exposed more defensively in today's rules by the increased number of PnRs and improvement in outside shooting.

So I decided to switch Duncan to be #1 center ahead of Shaq in my rankings because of this - but, like I said, I am conflicted about this.

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The good news for Utah here is that Denver do not have great outside shooters in their starting lineup. Payton was more of a solid shooter than a great one. Rip Hamilton and Melo were great midrange shooters but not necessarily perimeter shooters.

Rip tried to add a three point shot to his arsenal but struggled with it. He was never able to shooter with volume despite having a good 3FG%. Melo's 3 ball was up and down throughout his career.

The bench wings are more spot up shooters than pull up off the dribble shooters so they can't attack Shaq well either.

Kyrie Irving is Denver's best bet for attacking Shaq in the PnR. I do wonder if Kyrie should be starting in this series instead of Rip.

[RPGenerate]

Anyone who thinks that Melo is only a bunch of isos and bad midrange shots hasn't seen him play in the Olympics. He can play off the ball and shoot off screens, and he's quite good at it when he wants to be. I think it's a bit ridiculous to think Melo couldn't play within my offense. Melo provides a level of iso scoring (no, iso isn't some dirty word) that Peja can't touch, and I think Melo's body of works shows that rather clearly. Peja will have a very hard time covering Melo one-on-one, which is gonna happen a bunch in this type of league.

I've been warming up to a Payton/Kyrie backcourt. I think Utah's greatest weakness is their wing defense. Peja and a Reggie that's in his mid 30's isn't very inspiring, and forcing one of them to guard one of Kyrie/Payton is a huge mismatch.

[Who]

Anyone who thinks that Melo is only a bunch of isos and bad midrange shots hasn't seen him play in the Olympics. He can play off the ball and shoot off screens, and he's quite good at it when he wants to be.

I think it's a bit ridiculous to think Melo couldn't play within my offense. Melo provides a level of iso scoring (no, iso isn't some dirty word) that Peja can't touch, and I think Melo's body of works shows that rather clearly. Peja will have a very hard time covering Melo one-on-one, which is gonna happen a bunch in this type of league.

That is not what I am trying to say.

I am talking more about volume - scoring volume.

Melo scored what about 15ppg for Team USA? Something like that. He can score that number of points while playing within the team offense (transition, playing off of screens, spotting up, opportunistic drives) but to really attack and exploit the mismatch forces Melo to play more one-on-one basketball (to really punish and exploit the situation).

So in order to get Melo to be a 20-25ppg or a 25-30ppg guy against Peja will force Melo to play more one-on-one basketball - which for Melo mostly come off of isolations or post ups. And when that happens your team offense is more Melo-centric than team based.

And when/if it becomes Melo centric - it becomes harder for Melo's teammates to attack on offense because (1) they are off the ball (2) Melo is a shot-happy player rather than pass-first player so when he attacks the mismatch he is much more likely to put up a shot himself than create one for a teammate.


Edit: I looked it up. Melo scored 11ppg, 16ppg and 12ppg in three Olympic tourneys for Team USA.

[Who]

I've been warming up to a Payton/Kyrie backcourt. I think Utah's greatest weakness is their wing defense. Peja and a Reggie that's in his mid 30's isn't very inspiring, and forcing one of them to guard one of Kyrie/Payton is a huge mismatch.

Yeah, I think Reggie Miller is dead in the water trying to defend Payton or Kyrie. Huge advantage Denver.

I reckon Reggie can defend Rip well enough (running through screens). Reggie has more range on his jumper and is far more efficient offensively overall than Rip which could give Reggie the advantage there. Rip has an advantage when he puts the ball on the floor which he did a moderate amount. Not sure if that is enough to swing things back Rip's way. 

Kyrie though. And Payton. Those guys live off the dribble and are both far more effective than Rip at attacking Reggie Miller off the dribble.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I assumed they would play under modern rules and it was a pretty easy decision for me.

Denver
I don't think Hamilton is as good as people remember. He had moments with Detroit, but I think on any other team he would simply be an above average NBA player.

I also think you have to appreciate that Green's offense largely comes off of StephCurry in the high pick-and-roll. Without that threat of a shooter, Green is probably a negative on offense.

It's my opinion (regardless of stats) that the team Denver put forward would struggle tremendously with floor spacing in their starting lineup, which would limit some of Duncan's and Melo's effectiveness as post up players.

I love the Cousins and Kyrie bench for them. Robinson would help with some floor spacing too, but all in all I just don't think this team is well-constructed.

Utah
This is not my favorite team, but by default they are the better team. Shaq would be impossible to stop with an open floor and the shooting that Horford, Peja, and Miller provide. I think Kidd would get a lot of easy buckets for shooters and for Mashburn and Brown off the bench. I wish there was one more guy off the bench as a scorer, but I think the team construction is really good with this team.

[action781]

Anyone who thinks that Melo is only a bunch of isos and bad midrange shots hasn't seen him play in the Olympics. He can play off the ball and shoot off screens, and he's quite good at it when he wants to be. I think it's a bit ridiculous to think Melo couldn't play within my offense. Melo provides a level of iso scoring (no, iso isn't some dirty word) that Peja can't touch, and I think Melo's body of works shows that rather clearly. Peja will have a very hard time covering Melo one-on-one, which is gonna happen a bunch in this type of league.

I've been warming up to a Payton/Kyrie backcourt. I think Utah's greatest weakness is their wing defense. Peja and a Reggie that's in his mid 30's isn't very inspiring, and forcing one of them to guard one of Kyrie/Payton is a huge mismatch.

Olympic Carmelo is awesome.  I think so more than most.  Just see what I said in the draft thread when you selected him:

I'm with Roy where I'm a bigger Melo fan than most.  I think talent-wise in a vacuum, he's just as good as Chris Webber and Ray Allen.  I had Melo ranked as a second rounder, immediately above both of those players.  He's a guy who is a better sharpshooter than people realize, similar to how people realized it with Pierce when the big 3 got together.  He's a guy capable of being an engaged defender.  Still question marks there though.

I think he'd thrive off an elite creator.  A guy like Kidd, Lebron, CP3, Kobe, DWade, Luka, Harden, Nash.  I think Denver is missing that player.  Carmelo would also be at his best getting out in transition.  I don't see my ideal version of Carmelo on this team yet, but Carmelo will at minimum still be able to operate nicely on this team in 1-1 stuff and be a better defender than we know him to be.

My opinion on him 10 rounds later is still the same.

Olympic Carmelo was fantastic, I loved him.  But Olympic Carmelo played alongside Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Durant, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams.  He had elite creators and table setters surrounding him  They played an uptempo system where Carmelo thrived... I can remember the ESPN highlights.  Hence why I wrote in my original post that he'd thrive off an elite creator and getting out in transition.  That's not the case in Denver... this team is constructed to to be a very good half-court grind-it-out type of team and its built it around one of the best guys in the game at that -- Tim Duncan.

[nickagneta]

I sum this matchup up in just two words: personalities and Shaq. I think the personalities on Denver would cause chemistry issues in Denver and Utah has Shaq.

So I am going Utah.

[RPGenerate]

On personalities: I think it's a bit overblown. Only guy I could see causing trouble would be Kyrie, and that's the downside to drafting such a talented player in the later rounds. Boogie behaved himself on teams that weren't complete clown shows. Payton and Draymond are loud players, but nothing about them makes them out to be bad teammates Also, as I made the playoffs as a second seed, wouldn't my team clicking regardless of personalities be assumed?

On Shaq: This was always gonna be an uphill battle. Shaq had the highest peak for this draft; he was nigh unstoppable. However, I think the Tim Duncan-led Spurs teams did as good a job as anyone to contain Shaq. Kobe had better series against the Spurs, and were the main reason the Lakers had an upper hand in those matchups. I'll post head-to-head stats when I get the chance.

[Who]

So as I was thinking about suggesting Utah play Peja at PF instead of Al Horford because Draymond Green is not a big scorer and would not be able to exploit Peja. Utah could get another more dynamic offensive player on the floor like Jaylen Brown. Spread out the court more for Shaq.

Then just as I was considering that RPGenerate sent me a PM about Melo at the PF and whether that would be beneficial or not. At the same I was just thinking it is a similar situation on the other side too. Al Horford not a big scorer. Denver could go small with Melo at PF also. Horford has some post game but that paint is pretty clogged up with Shaq in there so hard for Al to do much damage to Melo while Melo would get to play in a more spaced out offense to attack off the bounce. Same idea.

Then I figured both teams would just matchup against one another if the other went small. In both teams interest to do so. So what would those lineups look like?

G - Payton vs Kidd
G - Rip / Kyrie vs Reggie
F - Rip / Raja Bell / Danny Green / Covington vs Jaylen
F - Melo vs Peja
C - Duncan vs Shaq


First impression for Denver is that their bench wings are more 3+D guys than offensive creators so their offense won't gain much here. I believe Utah gains more because Jaylen is a legit scorer / shooter.

Second idea is whether one of those 3+D guys or Rip should defend Peja and take him out of the series by chasing him all over the place and allowing Melo to defend Jaylen instead. I believe that would work well.

Rick Fox took Peja out of the series on many occasions when Lakers played the Kings. Trenton Hassell did similarly when T-Wolves beat Kings in 2004. Popovich also did the same against an older Peja in 2008 when the Spurs came back from 0-2 down to winning 4-3 against the Hornets when Bruce Bowen was switched onto Peja instead of CP3 and forced New Orleans to play 2-on-5 (CP3, David West) to the rest of the way by robbing New Orleans of it's 3rd scorer.

Third thought was about the small Kyrie & Payton backcourt vs Reggie Miller. That Reggie would have to come out of the game in favour of Marcus Smart to stop from getting lit up. In this extra small lineup, Reggie could switch onto the SF (Rip or 3+D guy) and stay on the floor with Jaylen defending Payton or Kyrie.

Fourth thought is Steve Francis could have a role in this series if Kyrie were to start. Another offensive creator to try and attack Reggie Miller's defense.

Denver could go with Glenn Robinson at SF. I myself am not a Glenn Robinson fan. I consider him to be a fairly selfish offensive player and a bad defender. A player who doesn't really help teams at this level. Also too many chiefs (shot-takers) and not enough indians (off ball players) at that point.


Final thoughts. Denver staying big in the backcourt while small at forward gives Utah a clear advantage in the small ball lineups. Denver have to get Kyrie on the floor to stay competitive with Utah's small ball efforts.

G - Payton vs Kidd
G - Kyrie vs Jaylen
F - Rip / Danny Green vs Reggie
F - Melo vs Peja
C - Duncan vs Shaq

I am not sure either team gets an advantage by going small because the other team mirrors them so much in certain matchups - Reggie vs Rip and Draymond vs Horford. The seem to swapping out similar pieces and matching up comfortably. Just differently.

It would give Shaq a lot more ground to cover on defense. Having to defend all that space without Horford around to help him.

Utah do have a lack of ball-handling outside of Kidd in such a lineup whereas Denver's attack is multi-dimensional (Kyrie, Payton, Melo) and Kidd was not a huge penetrator (dribble drive threat).

But I think that is more about going small in the backcourt. Not necessarily small at forward. The same is true when keeping Draymond and Horford on the floor.


Anyway, my wandering thoughts about small ball lineups ...

[RPGenerate]

I assumed they would play under modern rules and it was a pretty easy decision for me.

Denver
I don't think Hamilton is as good as people remember. He had moments with Detroit, but I think on any other team he would simply be an above average NBA player.

I also think you have to appreciate that Green's offense largely comes off of StephCurry in the high pick-and-roll. Without that threat of a shooter, Green is probably a negative on offense.

It's my opinion (regardless of stats) that the team Denver put forward would struggle tremendously with floor spacing in their starting lineup, which would limit some of Duncan's and Melo's effectiveness as post up players.

I love the Cousins and Kyrie bench for them. Robinson would help with some floor spacing too, but all in all I just don't think this team is well-constructed.

Utah
This is not my favorite team, but by default they are the better team. Shaq would be impossible to stop with an open floor and the shooting that Horford, Peja, and Miller provide. I think Kidd would get a lot of easy buckets for shooters and for Mashburn and Brown off the bench. I wish there was one more guy off the bench as a scorer, but I think the team construction is really good with this team.

Wow, Rip is getting underrated here. Hamilton was pivotal in the Piston's many playoff runs. Remove his out-of-prime years, and Rip is averaging over 20 pts a game. His playoffs scoring actually increased from his regular season, and let's not forget his amazing finals performance against the Fakers. 21 PPG, while outplaying his head-to-head matchup, holding him to 38% shooting. That player was none other than the great Kobe Bryant!

[Roy H.]

I think Denver’s best bet is to go big.  Create as many potential mismatches as possible, and hope one of them works.

I’d start Boogie and Duncan.  Then obviously Carmelo.  Rip is the perfect Reggie cover, but I wonder if instead a Payton / Kyrie back court would create more mismatches in this series.